Job satisfaction and turnover of the first group of rural-oriented tuition-waived medical students in Guangxi, China: a mixed-method study.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, China launched a rural-oriented tuition-waived medical education (RTME) programme to train more general practitioners (GPs) to meet the needs of the rural health workforce. Motivating and maintaining GPs is an important consideration for the shortage in the rural health workforce. This study aimed to investigate job satisfaction and turnover among the first group of rural-oriented tuition-waived medical students (RTMSs) who had completed a three-year compulsory service in Guangxi, as well as the factors affecting RTMSs turnover. METHODS: This study adopted a mixed-method approach. A quantitative survey of 129 RTMSs was analysed (81.6% response rate), and qualitative interviews were conducted with 30 stakeholders, including 18 RTMSs, six administrators of the County Health Bureau, and six administrators of township health centers (THCs). A t-test, chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, and logistic regression analysis were used to examine the quantitative data, and thematic analysis was used to analyse the qualitative data. RESULTS: Among the 129 participants, the turnover rate was high, with 103 RTMSs reporting turnover (79.84%). Interpersonal relationships scored the highest in job satisfaction (3.63 ± 0.64) among RTMSs, while working conditions were rated the lowest (2.61 ± 0.85). Marital status (odds ratio [OR] = 0.236, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 0.059-0.953, P = 0.043), only child status (OR = 8.660, 95%CI = 1.714-43.762, P = 0.009), and job return satisfaction (OR = 0.290, 95%CI = 0.090-0.942, P = 0.039) were significantly associated with turnover. Univariate analyses showed that income had a significant influence on turnover, but the relationship gone by multivariable; however it was deemed important in the qualitative study. Qualitative analysis revealed that turnover was influenced by the working atmosphere, effort-reward imbalance, professional competence, and opportunities for training and promotion. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insights for the policymakers about the priority areas for retaining GPs in rural locations and provides reference values for the retention of GPs in other regions with a shortage of rural health workers. For RTMSs to continue providing services to rural areas, the government should improve their salaries, balance their income and workload, provide more opportunities for training and career promotion, and managers should recognise their efforts and create an optimistic working atmosphere.

GP workforce sustainability to maximise effective and equitable patient care: a realist review of what works, for whom and in what circumstances?

BACKGROUND: UK general practice has been described as being in crisis. A shortage and exodus of GPs is an urgent and challenging problem, attracting significant media attention, widespread public debate, and policy action. AIM: Our review aims to examine which aspects of the healthcare system affect GP workforce sustainability, how, why, and for whom. METHOD: A realist review is an interpretive, theory-driven approach to evidence synthesis, that brings together data from quantitative, qualitative, mixed methods research, and the wider grey literature (e.g., policy documentation). Using this data allows us to examine a diverse range of evidence with a clear focus on understanding factors which support (or hinder) GP workforce sustainability, how these are shaped by contexts, and the mechanisms that underpin them. We identify important individual and system-level contexts that may be amenable to change. RESULTS: We present our emerging findings in the form of a programme theory which explores human connection with patients, colleagues, and across organisations, gaining intellectual enrichment and learning systems comprising socially-situated knowledge. Relational continuity is key across these, supporting GP workforce sustainability. Challenges include standardisation, alienation and professional loneliness, inflexible organisation, and restrictive technologies. CONCLUSION: Our research generates new knowledge about the interdependencies between contexts, mechanisms, and outcomes. The findings can inform strategies and interventions intended to support, facilitate, and assist the GP workforce in delivering equitable and effective patient care. We identify critical gaps in knowledge and prioritise the expectations for scope and nature of future GP work and retention strategies.

General practitioner workforce sustainability to maximise effective and equitable patient care: a realist review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: There are not enough general practitioners (GPs) in the UK National Health Service. This problem is worse in areas of the country where poverty and underinvestment in health and social care mean patients experience poorer health compared with wealthier regions. Encouraging more doctors to choose and continue in a GP career is a government priority. This review will examine which aspects of the healthcare system affect GP workforce sustainability, how, why and for whom. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A realist review is a theory-driven interpretive approach to evidence synthesis, that brings together qualitative, quantitative, mixed-methods research and grey literature. We will use a realist approach to synthesise data from the available published literature to refine an evidence-based programme theory that will identify the important contextual factors and underlying mechanisms that underpin observed outcomes relating to GP workforce sustainability. Our review will follow Pawson's five iterative stages: (1) finding existing theories, (2) searching for evidence, (3) article selection, (4) data extraction and (5) synthesising evidence and drawing conclusions. We will work closely with key stakeholders and embed patient and public involvement throughout the review process to refine the focus of the review and enhance the impact and relevance of our research. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This review does not require formal ethical approval as it draws on secondary data from published articles and grey literature. Findings will be disseminated through multiple channels, including publication in peer-reviewed journals, at national and international conferences, and other digital scholarly communication tools such as video summaries, X and blog posts. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023395583.

Does shortage of GPs matter? A cross-sectional study of practice population life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: There are not enough GPs in England. Access to general practice and continuity of care are declining. AIM: To investigate whether practice characteristics are associated with life expectancy of practice populations. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional ecological study of patient life expectancy from 2015-2019. METHOD: Selection of independent variables was based on conceptual frameworks describing general practice's influence on outcomes. Sixteen non-correlated variables were entered into multivariable weighted regression models: population characteristics (Index of Multiple Deprivation, region, % White ethnicity, and % on diabetes register); practice organisation (total NHS payments to practices expressed as payment per registered patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs, GP registrars, advanced nurse practitioners, other nurses, and receptionists per 1000 patients); access (% seen on the same day); clinical performance (% aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease vaccinated against flu, % with diabetes in glycaemic control, and % with coronary heart disease on antiplatelet therapy); and the therapeutic relationship (% continuity). RESULTS: Deprivation was strongly negatively associated with life expectancy. Regions outside London and White ethnicity were associated with lower life expectancy. Higher payment per patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs per 1000 patients, continuity, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease having the flu vaccination, and % with diabetes with glycaemic control were associated with higher life expectancy; the % being seen on the same day was associated with higher life expectancy in males only. The variable aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked was a negative predictor in females. CONCLUSION: The number of GPs, continuity of care, and access in England are declining, and it is worrying that these features of general practice were positively associated with life expectancy.

Primary care doctors retirements in the context of an ageing population in Italy.

Background: Ongoing shortages in primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians and increasing healthcare needs due to ageing of the population represent a great challenge for healthcare providers, managers, and policymakers. To support planning of primary healthcare resource allocation we analyzed the geographic distribution of primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians across Italian regions, accounting for area-specific number and age of the population. Additionally, we estimated the number of primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians expected to retire over the next 25 years, with a focus on the next five years. Study design: Ecological study. Methods: We gathered the list of Italian general practitioners and primary care paediatricians and combined them with the data from the National Federation of Medical Doctors, Surgeons and Dentists. Using data from the National Institutes of Statistics, we calculated the average number of patients per doctor for each region using the number of residents above and under 14 years of age for general practitioners and primary care paediatricians respectively. We also calculated the number of residents over-65 and over-75 years of age per general practitioner, as elderly patients typically have higher healthcare needs. Results: On average the number of patients per general practitioner was 1,447 (SD: 190), while for paediatricians it was 1,139 (SD: 241), with six regions above the threshold of 1,500 patients per general practitioner and only one region under the threshold of 880 patients per paediatrician. We estimated that on average 2,228 general practitioners and 444 paediatricians are going to retire each year for the next five years, reaching more than 70% among the current workforce for some southern regions. The number of elderly patients per general practitioner varies substantially between regions, with two regions having >15% more patients aged over 65 years compared to the expected number. Conclusions: over 65 years compared to the expected number. Conclusions. The study highlighted that some regions do not currently have the required primary care workforce, and the expec-ted retirements and the ageing of the population will exacerbate the pressure on the already over-stretched healthcare services. A response from healthcare administrations and policymakers is urgently required to allow equitable access to quality primary care across the country.

Building a sustainable rural physician workforce.

CHAPTER 1: CHARACTERISING AUSTRALIA'S RURAL SPECIALIST PHYSICIAN WORKFORCE: THE PROFESSIONAL PROFILE AND PROFESSIONAL SATISFACTION OF JUNIOR DOCTORS AND CONSULTANTS: Objective: To assess differences in the demographic characteristics, professional profile and professional satisfaction of rural and metropolitan junior physicians and physician consultants in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional, population level national survey of the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life longitudinal cohort study (collected 2008-2016). Participants were specialist physicians from four career stage groups: pre-registrars (physician intent); registrars; new consultants (< 5 years since Fellowship); and consultants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Level of professional satisfaction across various job aspects, such as hours worked, working conditions, support networks and educational opportunities, comparing rural and metropolitan based physicians. RESULTS: Participants included 1587 pre-registrars (15% rural), 1745 physician registrars (9% rural), 421 new consultants (20% rural) and 1143 consultants (13% rural). Rural physicians of all career stages demonstrated equivalent professional satisfaction across most job aspects, compared with metropolitan physician counterparts. Some examples of differences in satisfaction included rural pre-registrars being less likely to agree they had good access to support and supervision from qualified consultants (odds ratio [OR], 0.6; 95% CI, 0.3-0.9) and rural consultants being more likely to agree they had a poorer professional support network (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-2.9). In terms of demographics, relatively more rural physicians had a rural background or were trained overseas. Although most junior physicians were women, female consultants were less likely to be working in a rural location (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.8). CONCLUSION: Junior physicians in metropolitan or rural settings have a similar professional experience, which is important in attracting future trainees. Increased opportunities for rural training should be prioritised, along with addressing concerns about the professional isolation and poorer support network of those in rural areas, not only among junior doctors but also consultants. Finally, making rural practice more attractive to female junior physicians could greatly improve the consultant physician distribution. CHAPTER 2: GENERAL PHYSICIANS AND PAEDIATRICIANS IN RURAL AUSTRALIA: THE SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF PROFESSIONAL IDENTITY: Objective: To explore the construction of professional identity among general physicians and paediatricians working in non-metropolitan areas. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with general physicians and paediatricians, plus informants from specialist colleges, government agencies and academia who were involved in policy and programs for the training and recruitment of specialists in rural locations across three states and two territories. This research is part of the Training Pathways and Professional Support for Building a Rural Physician Workforce Study, 2018-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Individual and collective descriptors of professional identity. RESULTS: We interviewed 36 key informants. Professional identity for general physicians and paediatricians working in regional, rural and remote Australia is grounded in the breadth of their training, but qualified by location - geographic location, population served or specific location, where social and cultural context specifically shapes practice. General physicians and paediatricians were deeply engaged with their local community and its economic vulnerability, and they described the population size and dynamics of local economies as determinants of viable practice. They often complemented their practice with formal or informal training in areas of special interest, but balanced their practice against subspecialist availability, also dependent on demographics. While valuing their professional roles, they showed limited inclination for industrial organisation. CONCLUSION: Despite limited consensus on identity descriptors, rural general physicians and paediatricians highly value generalism and their rural engagement. The structural and geographic bias that preferences urban areas will need to be addressed to further develop coordinated strategies for advanced training in rural contexts, for which collective identity is integral. CHAPTER 3: SUSTAINABLE RURAL PHYSICIAN TRAINING: LEADERSHIP IN A FRAGILE ENVIRONMENT: Objectives: To understand Royal Australasian College of Physicians (RACP) training contexts, including supervisor and trainee perspectives, and to identify contributors to the sustainability of training sites, including training quality. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A cross-sectional mixed-methods design was used. A national sample of RACP trainees and Fellows completed online surveys. Survey respondents who indicated willingness to participate in interviews were purposively recruited to cover perspectives from a range of geographic, demographic and training context parameters. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fellows' and trainees' work and life satisfaction, and their experiences of supervision and training, respectively, by geographic location. RESULTS: Fellows and trainees reported high levels of satisfaction, with one exception - inner regional Fellows reported lower satisfaction regarding opportunities to use their abilities. Not having a good support network was associated with lower satisfaction. Our qualitative findings indicate that a culture of undermining rural practice is prevalent and that good leadership at all levels is important to reduce negative impacts on supervisor and trainee availability, site accreditation and viability. Trainees described challenges in navigating training pathways, ensuring career development, and having the flexibility to meet family needs. The small number of Fellows in some sites poses challenges for supervisors and trainees and results in a blurring of roles; accreditation is an obstacle to provision of training at rural sites; and the overlap between service and training roles can be difficult for supervisors. CONCLUSION: Our qualitative findings emphasise the distinctive nature of regional specialist training, which can make it a fragile environment. Leadership at all levels is critical to sustaining accreditation and support for supervisors and trainees. CHAPTER 4: PRINCIPLES TO GUIDE TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL SUPPORT FOR A SUSTAINABLE RURAL SPECIALIST PHYSICIAN WORKFORCE: Objective: To draw on research conducted in the Building a Rural Physician Workforce project, the first national study on rural specialist physicians, to define a set of principles applicable to guiding training and professional support action. DESIGN: We used elements of the Delphi approach for systematic data collection and codesign, and applied a hybrid participatory action planning approach to achieve consensus on a set of principles. RESULTS: Eight interconnected foundational principles built around rural regions and rural people were identified: FP1, grow your own "connected to" place; FP2, select trainees invested in rural practice; FP3, ground training in community need; FP4, rural immersion - not exposure; FP5, optimise and invest in general medicine; FP6, include service and academic learning components; FP7, join up the steps in rural training; and FP8, plan sustainable specialist roles. CONCLUSION: These eight principles can guide training and professional support to build a sustainable rural physician workforce. Application of the principles, and coordinated action by stakeholders and the responsible organisations, are needed at national, state and local levels to achieve a sustainable rural physician workforce.

Effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion on the Distribution of New General Internists Across States.

BACKGROUND: Some states expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, boosting their low-income residents' demand for health care, while other states opted not to expand. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine whether the Medicaid expansion influenced the states selected by physicians just completing graduate medical education for establishing their first practices. RESEARCH DESIGN: Using 2009-2019 data from the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile and information on states' Medicaid expansion status, we estimated conditional logit models to compare where new physicians located during the 6 years following implementation of the expansion to where they located during the 5 years preceding implementation. SUBJECTS: The sample consisted of 160,842 physicians in 8 specialty groups. RESULTS: Thirty-three states and the District of Columbia expanded Medicaid by the end of the study period. Compared with preexpansion patterns, we found that physicians in one specialty group-general internal medicine-were increasingly likely to locate in expansion states with time after the expansion. The Medicaid expansion influenced the practice location choices of men and international medical graduates in general internal medicine; women and United States medical graduates did not alter their preexpansion location patterns. Simulations estimated that, between 2014 and 2019, nonexpansion states lost 310 general internists (95% confidence interval, 156-464) to expansion states. CONCLUSIONS: The Medicaid expansion influenced the practice location choices of new general internists. States that opted not to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act lost general internists to expansion states, potentially affecting access to care for all their residents irrespective of insurance coverage.

New Zealand's vocational Rural Hospital Medicine Training Programme: the first ten years.

AIMS: The Rural Hospital Medicine Training Programme (RHMTP) was established in 2008 to develop New Zealand's rural hospital medical workforce. This study evaluates the RHMTP's first 10-year outcomes. METHODS: A mixed-methods descriptive study. Database interrogation of: the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners records; University of Otago's e-Vision; the Medical Council of New Zealand's register of doctors. A survey of trainees who had graduated or withdrew from the programme. Survey questions included: current scope and place of employment; undergraduate rural experience; and trainee experiences. RESULTS: From 2009-2018, 98 doctors entered the RHMTP: 29 graduated, 20 withdrew and 49 are active registrars. Of the graduates, more than half (17/29) also completed GP training. Overall survey response rate: 80% (39/49). Graduate response rate: 97% (28/29). 92% (24/26) of currently practising graduates are working in rural New Zealand, mostly (22/24) in rural hospitals. Trainees value the RHMTP's flexibility and breadth of clinical exposure. The main challenges relate to a lack of alignment of training requirements and funding. CONCLUSIONS: In its first decade, the RHMTP has been successful in generating a rural hospital workforce and the programme is steadily growing. Attention to existing barriers is needed to ensure the RHMTP can reach its potential to benefit all of New Zealand's rural communities.

The primary care workforce in Europe: a cross-sectional international comparison of rural and urban areas and changes between 1993 and 2011.

Rural areas have problems in attracting and retaining primary care workforce. This might have consequences for the existing workforce. We studied whether general practitioners (GPs) in rural practices differ by age, sex, practice population and workload from those in less rural locations and whether their practices differ in resources and service profiles. We used data from 2 studies: QUALICOPC study collected data from 34 countries, including 7183 GPs in 2011, and Profiles of General Practice in Europe study collected data from 32 countries among 7895 GPs in 1993. Data were analyzed using multilevel analysis. Results show that the share of female GPs has increased in rural areas but is still lower than in urban areas. In rural areas, GPs work more hours and provide more medical procedures to their patients. Apart from these differences between locations, overall ageing of the GP population is evident. Higher workload in rural areas may be related to increased demand for care. Rural practices seem to cope by offering a broad range of services, such as medical procedures. Dedicated human resource policies for rural areas are required with a view to an ageing GP population, to the individual preferences and needs of the GPs, and to decreasing attractiveness of rural areas.

Regional and patient-related factors influencing the willingness to use general practitioners as coordinators of the treatment in northern Germany - results of a cross-sectional observational study.

BACKGROUND: In most countries, the general practitioner (GP) is the first point of contact in the healthcare system and coordinator of healthcare. However, in Germany it is possible to consult an outpatient specialist even without referral. Coordination by a GP might thus reduce health expenditures and inequalities in the healthcare system. The study describes the patients' willingness/commitment to use the GP as coordinator of healthcare and identifies regional and patient-related factors associated with the aforementioned commitment to the GP. METHODS: Cross-sectional observational study using a standardised telephone patient survey in northern Germany. All counties and independent cities within a radius of 120 km around Hamburg were divided into three regional categories (urban areas, environs, rural areas) and stratified proportionally to the population size. Patients who had consulted the GP within the previous three months, and had been patients of the practice for at least three years were randomly selected from medical records of primary care practices in these districts and recruited for the study. Multivariate linear regression models adjusted for random effects at the level of federal states, administrative districts and practices were used as statistical analysis methods. RESULTS: Eight hundred eleven patients (25.1%) from 186 practices and 34 administrative districts were interviewed. The patient commitment to a GP attained an average of 20 out of 24 possible points. Significant differences were found by sex (male vs. female: + 1.14 points, p < 0.001), morbidity (+ 0.10 per disease, p = 0.043), education (high vs. low: - 1.74, p < 0.001), logarithmised household net adjusted disposable income (- 0.93 per step on the logarithmic scale, p = 0.004), regional category (urban areas: - 0.85, p = 0.022; environs: - 0.80, p = 0.045) and healthcare utilisation (each GP contact: + 0.30, p < 0.001; each contact to a medical specialist: - 0.75, p = 0.018). Professional situation and age were not significantly associated with the GP commitment. CONCLUSION: On average, the patients' commitment to their GP was relatively strong, but there were large differences between patient groups. An increase in the patient commitment to the GP could be achieved through better patient information and targeted interventions, e.g. to women or patients from regions of higher urban density. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02558322).

[Do decision-makers in the German healthcare system misjudge the situation of a branch office? - Motivation of physicians to set up in a GP's practice in the area of the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians North-Rhine]. / Schätzen Entscheider im Gesundheitswesen die Niederlassungssituation falsch ein?

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to illustrate motives for a GP's branch from the current point of view by branch (expectations fulfilled) and before branch (motivation). In addition, obstructive or beneficial factors of a branch should be identified. METHODS: Using a mixed-methods approach (focus groups, individual interviews) with the target group were used in the qualitative part of experiences, opinions and motivations for the GP's branch and, after evaluation, a pre-tested questionnaire was used. A full survey of 675 identified GPs from the database of the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians North Rhine was carried out. These had settled in the last 5 years before the survey period (09/2015). The questionnaire sent by post contained 17 questions on settlement motivation and 11 biographical aspects. RESULTS: The number of evaluable data records was 437 (64.7 %). The highest approval values, in the sense of conducive to settlement motivation, were "discontinuation of services in the hospital" (97.2 %) and "being one's own boss" (96.2 %). Rights and duties as a "panel physician" (8.5 %), and the "emergency service for panel physicians/on-call service" (22.7 %) were perceived as more of an obstacle. In terms of fulfilling expectations, the "discontinuation of services" (95.6 %) and the "diversity of age groups to be treated" (88.9 %) emerged. A total of 97 % would settle down again, regardless of the degree to which their wishes were fulfilled, and almost ¾ would only decided to work as family doctors after they had completed their studies. CONCLUSIONS: The fact that escaping from the stationary sector is the main driving force behind the settlement must be thought-provoking. Since this survey approach was not based on specialist groups or the level of training, but on a complete survey of established persons over a five-year period, it can be stated that the current incentive structures of a branch should be rethought due to the age structure of the interviewees.

Regional variation in practitioner employment in general practices in England: a comparative analysis.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, UK health policy makers have responded to a GP shortage by introducing measures to support increased healthcare delivery by practitioners from a wider range of backgrounds. AIM: To ascertain the composition of the primary care workforce in England at a time when policy changes affecting deployment of different practitioner types are being introduced. DESIGN AND SETTING: This study was a comparative analysis of workforce data reported to NHS Digital by GP practices in England. METHOD: Statistics are reported using practice-level data from the NHS Digital June 2019 data extract. Because of the role played by Health Education England (HEE) in training and increasing the skills of a healthcare workforce that meets the needs of each region, the analysis compares average workforce composition across the 13 HEE regions in England RESULTS: The workforce participation in terms of full-time equivalent of each staff group across HEE regions demonstrates regional variation. Differences persist when expressed as mean full-time equivalent per thousand patients. Despite policy changes, most workers are employed in long-established primary care roles, with only a small proportion of newer types of practitioner, such as pharmacists, paramedics, physiotherapists, and physician associates. CONCLUSION: This study provides analysis of a more detailed and complete primary care workforce dataset than has previously been available in England. In describing the workforce composition at this time, the study provides a foundation for future comparative analyses of changing practitioner deployment before the introduction of primary care networks, and for evaluating outcomes and costs that may be associated with these changes.

Workforce predictive risk modelling: development of a model to identify general practices at risk of a supply-demand imbalance.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model identifying general practices at risk of workforce supply-demand imbalance. DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of routine data on general practice workforce, patient experience and registered populations (2012 to 2016), combined with a census of general practitioners' (GPs') career intentions (2016). SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: A hybrid approach was used to develop a model to predict workforce supply-demand imbalance based on practice factors using historical data (2012-2016) on all general practices in England (with over 1000 registered patients n=6398). The model was applied to current data (2016) to explore future risk for practices in South West England (n=368). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was a practice being in a state of workforce supply-demand imbalance operationally defined as being in the lowest third nationally of access scores according to the General Practice Patient Survey and the highest third nationally according to list size per full-time equivalent GP (weighted to the demographic distribution of registered patients and adjusted for deprivation). RESULTS: Based on historical data, the predictive model had fair to good discriminatory ability to predict which practices faced supply-demand imbalance (area under receiver operating characteristic curve=0.755). Predictions using current data suggested that, on average, practices at highest risk of future supply-demand imbalance are currently characterised by having larger patient lists, employing more nurses, serving more deprived and younger populations, and having considerably worse patient experience ratings when compared with other practices. Incorporating findings from a survey of GP's career intentions made little difference to predictions of future supply-demand risk status when compared with expected future workforce projections based only on routinely available data on GPs' gender and age. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to make reasonable predictions of an individual general practice's future risk of undersupply of GP workforce with respect to its patient population. However, the predictions are inherently limited by the data available.