Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures.

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that "By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of "living in harmony with nature" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation.

Approximately 2.5 × 106 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year-1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year-1). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

Local stakeholder perceptions of forest degradation: Keys to sustainable tropical forest management.

Land use policies and planning in Latin America have been partially successful in halting deforestation yet have not stopped forest degradation. Here, we study the different stakeholders' perspectives of the drivers of forest degradation. We use Colombia as a case study for understanding synergies and trade-offs of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and analyzed what the most important causes are, to whom it matters, and their regional contribution. We identified a common perception, but miscommunication and misunderstandings occur between local- and national-level actors in terms of their views on responsibilities and rates of change. The results are a call for action. Cross-scale governance is necessary to improve the design and implementation of policies for forest management at the subnational and local levels and to ensure that we move toward sustainable development without worsening existing inequalities. It is essential that countries provide the enabling conditions to develop a coherent governing framework.

Connectivity conservation at the crossroads: protected areas versus payments for ecosystem services in conserving connectivity for Colombian carnivores.

Protected areas (PAs) constitute one of the main tools for global landscape conservation. Recently, payments for environmental services (PES) have attracted interest from national and regional governments and are becoming one of the leading conservation policy instruments in tropical countries. However, the degree to which areas designated for PES overlap with areas that are critical for maintaining species' landscape connectivity is rarely evaluated. We estimated habitat distributions and connectivity for 16 of the 22 mammalian carnivores occurring in the Caribbean region of Colombia, and identified the overlap between existing PAs and areas identified as being important for connectivity for these species. We also evaluated the potential impact of creation of new PAs versus new PES areas on conserving connectivity for carnivores. Our results show that PAs cover only a minor percentage of the total area that is important for maintaining connectivity ( x = 26.8 % ± 20.2 s . d . ). On the other hand, PES, if implemented extensively, could contribute substantially to mammalian carnivores' connectivity ( x = 45.4 % ± 12.8 s . d . ). However, in a more realistic scenario with limited conservation investment in which fewer areas are set aside, a strategy based on implementing new PAs seems superior to PES. We argue that prioritizing designation of new PAs will be the most efficient means through which to maintain connectivity.

Fire-induced loss of the world's most biodiverse forests in Latin America.

Fire plays a dominant role in deforestation, particularly in the tropics, but the relative extent of transformations and influence of fire frequency on eventual forest loss remain unclear. Here, we analyze the frequency of fire and its influence on postfire forest trajectories between 2001 and 2018. We account for ~1.1% of Latin American forests burnt in 2002-2003 (8,465,850 ha). Although 40.1% of forests (3,393,250 ha) burned only once, by 2018, ~48% of the evergreen forests converted to other, primarily grass-dominated uses. While greater fire frequency yielded more transformation, our results reveal the staggering impact of even a single fire. Increasing fire frequency imposes greater risks of irreversible forest loss, transforming forests into ecosystems increasingly vulnerable to degradation. Reversing this trend is indispensable to both mitigate and adapt to climate change globally. As climate change transforms fire regimes across the region, key actions are needed to conserve Latin American forests.

Pressures on La Lindosa, Guaviare: Land-Cover Change and Incidence of Fires Between 2012 and 2018 / Presiones ejercidas sobre la serranía de la lindosa, guaviare: cambios de cobertura e incidencia de fuegos entre 2012 y 2018

RESUMEN El cambio en el uso del suelo y el fuego como mecanismo utilizado para el mismo han creado perturbaciones ecológicas a grandes escalas, como lo son la fragmentación y aislamiento de ecosistemas importantes en paisajes tropicales. En el presente estudio, analizamos los cambios de uso del suelo entre los años 2012-2016 y los eventos de fuego entre los años 2016-2018, para identificar la dinámica de cambio espaciotemporal en la Serranía de la Lindosa, Guaviare, a partir de información oficial y sensores remotos. Para 2016 la cobertura boscosa se redujo en un 17 % correspondiendo con el aumento de vegetación secundaria y pastizales en el área. Los focos de fuego detectados estuvieron concentrados en el noroeste y sureste de la serranía, puntos coincidentes en zonas de bosque primario y zonas de pastizal consolidadas. Estos resultados indican que existe un proceso activo de deforestación en la serranía, que fragmenta la matriz boscosa dejando parches de bosque aislados, lo cual tendría repercusiones sobre la biodiversidad allí presente. Asimismo, la sinergia entre dicho proceso y el uso de fuego se muestra como amenaza constante, a diferentes escalas, sobre los diferentes ecosistemas. Esta información se presenta como herramienta para elaborar estrategias puntuales para evitar mayores repercusiones negativas sobre la serranía, que actualmente se encuentra en estado vulnerable.

ABSTRACT The change in land use and fire as a mechanism used for this change, have created ecological disturbances at large scales, such as the fragmentation and isolation of essential ecosystems within tropical landscapes. In the present study, we analyze the land-use changes along 2012-2016 and fire events between 2016-2018, to identify the dynamics of spatial-temporal change in the Serranía La Lindosa, Guaviare using official information and remote sensors. Forest cover was reduced by 17 %, during 2012-2016, corresponding to an increase in secondary vegetation and pastures in the area. The fire-hotspots detected were concentrated on the northwest and southeast of the mountain range, coinciding with areas of primary forest and consolidated pasture areas. These results show that there is an active process of deforestation in La Lindosa, leaving a fragmented matrix and isolated forest patches, which would have repercussions on the local biodiversity. Besides, the synergy between this process and the use of fire, represent a constant threat, at different scales, on the different ecosystems. This information is presented as a resource to elaborate punctual strategies in order to avoid greater negative repercussions on the mountain range area, which is currently in a vulnerable state.

Fires in protected areas reveal unforeseen costs of Colombian peace.

Armed conflict, and its end, can have powerful effects on natural resources, but the influence of war and peace on highly biodiverse tropical forests remains disputed. We found a sixfold increase in fires in protected areas across biodiversity hotspots following guerrilla demobilization in Colombia, and a 52% increase in the probability of per-pixel deforestation within parks for 2018. Peace requires urgent shifts to include real-time forest monitoring, expand programmes to pay for ecosystem services at the frontier, integrate demobilized armed groups as staff of protected areas, and establish a domestic market for frontier deforestation permits.

Integrating remotely sensed fires for predicting deforestation for REDD.

Fire is an important tool in tropical forest management, as it alters forest composition, structure, and the carbon budget. The United Nations program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to sustainably manage forests, as well as to conserve and enhance their carbon stocks. Despite the crucial role of fire management, decision-making on REDD+ interventions fails to systematically include fires. Here, we address this critical knowledge gap in two ways. First, we review REDD+ projects and programs to assess the inclusion of fires in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems. Second, we model the relationship between fire and forest for a pilot site in Colombia using near-real-time (NRT) fire monitoring data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The literature review revealed fire remains to be incorporated as a key component of MRV systems. Spatially explicit modeling of land use change showed the probability of deforestation declined sharply with increasing distance to the nearest fire the preceding year (multi-year model area under the curve [AUC] 0.82). Deforestation predictions based on the model performed better than the official REDD early-warning system. The model AUC for 2013 and 2014 was 0.81, compared to 0.52 for the early-warning system in 2013 and 0.68 in 2014. This demonstrates NRT fire monitoring is a powerful tool to predict sites of forest deforestation. Applying new, publicly available, and open-access NRT fire data should be an essential element of early-warning systems to detect and prevent deforestation. Our results provide tools for improving both the current MRV systems, and the deforestation early-warning system in Colombia.

Does Plan B work? Home range estimations from stored on board and transmitted data sets produced by GPS-telemetry in the Colombian Amazon / ¿Funciona el plan B? Estimación de rango de hogar a partir de datos almacenados en instrumentos a bordo de animales y los obtenidos a partir de telemetría satelital de GPS en el Amazonas colombiano

Abstract:Telemetry based on Global Positioning Systems (GPS) makes possible to gather large quantities of information in a very fine scale and work with species that were impossible to study in the past. When working with GPS telemetry, the option of storing data on board could be more desirable than the sole satellite transmitted data, due to the increase in the amount of locations available for analysis. Nonetheless, the uncertainty in the retrieving of the collar unit makes satellite-transmitted technologies something to take into account. Therefore, differences between store-on-board (SoB) and satellite-transmitted (IT) data sets need to be considered. Differences between SoB and IT data collected from two lowland tapirs (Tapirus terrestris), were explored by means of the calculation of home range areas by three different methods: the Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP), the Fixed Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) and the Brownian Bridges (BB). Results showed that SoB and IT data sets for the same individual were similar, with fix ranging from 63 % to 85 % respectively, and 16 m to 17 m horizontal errors. Depending on the total number of locations available for each individual, the home ranges estimated showed differences between 2.7 % and 79.3 %, for the 50 % probability contour and between 9.9 % and 61.8 % for the 95 % probability contour. These differences imply variations in the spatial coincidence of the estimated home ranges. We concluded that the use of IT data is not a good option for the estimation of home range areas if the collar settings have not been designed specifically for this use. Nonetheless, geographical representations of the IT based estimators could be of great help to identify areas of use, besides its assistance to locate the collar for its retrieval at the end of the field season and as a proximate backup when collars disappear. Rev. Biol. Trop. 64 (4): 1441-1450. Epub 2016 December 01.

Resumen:La telemetría basada en los sistemas de geopocisionamiento global (GPS) hace posible recopilar gran cantidad de información a escalas muy finas, y trabajar con especies imposibles de estudiar en el pasado. Al trabajar con telemetría de GPS, la opción de guardar información en la memoria interna del instrumento puede ser más deseable que sólo tener acceso a la información enviada vía satélite, debido a la mayor cantidad de localizaciones disponibles para analizar. No obstante, la incertidumbre de recuperar el collar hace que las tecnología de trasmisión vía satélite deba ser tenida en cuenta. Diferencias entre las bases de datos almacenadas en el collar (SoB) y las trasmitidas vía satélite (IT), recolectadas de dos individuos de Tapir de tierras bajas (Tapirus terrestris), son consideradas, en términos de las áreas de los rangos de hogar calculados con cada uno y mediante el uso de tres metodologías diferentes: Mínimo Polígono Convexo (MCP), Estimador de Densidad de Kernel Fijo (KDE) y los Puentes Brownianos (BB). Las bases de datos SoB e IT son similares, con tasas de acierto de localizaciones que oscilan entre 63 % to 85 % y errores horizontales de 16 m y 17 m respectivamente. Dependiendo del número total de localizaciones disponibles para cada individuo, los rangos de hogar estimados muestran diferencias entre 2.7 % y 79.3 %, para el contorno del 50 % de probabilidades, y entre 9.9 % y 61.8 % para el contorno del 95 % de probabilidades. Estas diferencias implican variaciones en la coincidencia espacial de los rangos de hogar estimados. Concluimos que el uso de la información trasmitida vía satélite no es una buena opción para la estimación de rangos de hogar, si la programción de los collares no ha sido diseñada específicamente para tal fin. Sin embargo, las representaciones geográficas de los estimados a partir de las bases de datos IT pueden ser de gran ayuda para la identificación de áreas de uso, además de su utilidad para la localización y recuperación de collares tras su liberación de los individuos monitoreados y como una base de datos de soporte en caso de pérdida del collar.

Does Plan B work? Home range estimations from stored on board and transmitted data sets produced by GPS-telemetry in the Colombian Amazon.

Telemetry based on Global Positioning Systems (GPS) makes possible to gather large quantities of information in a very fine scale and work with species that were impossible to study in the past. When working with GPS telemetry, the option of storing data on board could be more desirable than the sole satellite transmitted data, due to the increase in the amount of locations available for analysis. Nonetheless, the uncertainty in the retrieving of the collar unit makes satellite-transmitted technologies something to take into account. Therefore, differences between store-on-board (SoB) and satellite-transmitted (IT) data sets need to be considered. Differences between SoB and IT data collected from two lowland tapirs (Tapirus terrestris), were explored by means of the calculation of home range areas by three different methods: the Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP), the Fixed Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) and the Brownian Bridges (BB). Results showed that SoB and IT data sets for the same individual were similar, with fix ranging from 63 % to 85 % respectively, and 16 m to 17 m horizontal errors. Depending on the total number of locations available for each individual, the home ranges estimated showed differences between 2.7 % and 79.3 %, for the 50 % probability contour and between 9.9 % and 61.8 % for the 95 % probability contour. These differences imply variations in the spatial coincidence of the estimated home ranges. We concluded that the use of IT data is not a good option for the estimation of home range areas if the collar settings have not been designed specifically for this use. Nonetheless, geographical representations of the IT based estimators could be of great help to identify areas of use, besides its assistance to locate the collar for its retrieval at the end of the field season and as a proximate backup when collars disappear.

Characteristics of natural salt licks located in the Colombian Amazon foothills.

Salt licks are key places for the ecological dynamics of wildlife communities around the world and are locations where animals develop geophagical behaviours. Geophagy is a method for animals to supplement their diets or facilitate their digestive processes and is related to the health of individuals and populations. This study characterises a series of salt licks located in the Colombian Amazon foothills and describes their structural, mineralogical and physicochemical properties, as well as the fauna that visit these locations. The results are analysed in reference to the geological characteristics of the study area and in relation to the role of the salt lick in the nutritional ecology of the Amazonian fauna. Located in the study area are two types of salt licks that are significantly different in composition. These salt licks are located in an area where young geological materials have been exposed. The characteristics of the salt licks supports the hypothesis that they are used to solve nutritional problems that result from herbivorous diets. The clear importance of salt licks in the ecology of several Amazonian animal species emphasises the need to prioritise conservation areas by maximising the complementarities of salt lick sites.

Landscape dynamics in northwestern Amazonia: an assessment of pastures, fire and illicit crops as drivers of tropical deforestation.

Many studies have identified drivers of deforestation throughout the tropics and, in most cases, have recognised differences in the level of threat. However, only a few have also looked at the temporal and spatial dynamics by which those drivers act, which is critical for assessing the conservation of biodiversity as well as for landscape planning. In this study, we analyse land cover change between 2000 and 2009 in north-western Colombian Amazonia to identify the interactions between the use of fire, cultivation of illicit crops and establishment of pastures, and their impacts on the loss of forest in the region. Yearly analyses were undertaken at randomly selected sample areas to quantify the average areas of transition of land cover types under different landscape compositions: forest-dominated mosaics, pasture mosaics, fire mosaics, and illicit crop mosaics. Our results indicate that despite the fact that forest areas were well-preserved, deforestation occurred at a low annual rate (0.06%). Conversion to pasture was the main factor responsible for forest loss (the area of pastures tripled within forest mosaics over 8 years), and this process was independent of the landscape matrix in which the forests were located. In fire mosaics, burning is a common tool for forest clearing and conversion to pasture. Thus, forests in fire mosaics were highly disturbed and frequently transformed from primary to secondary forests. The use of fire for illicit cropping was not detected, partly due to the small size of common illicit crops. Forest regeneration from pastures and secondary vegetation was observed in areas with large amounts of natural forest. Overall, assuming the continuation of the observed pasture conversion trend and the use of forest fire, we suggest that our results should be incorporated into a spatially explicit and integrated decision support tool to target and focus land-planning activities and policies.

Dynamics, patterns and causes of fires in Northwestern Amazonia.

According to recent studies, two widespread droughts occurred in the Amazon basin, one during 2005 and one during 2010. The drought increased the prevalence of climate-driven fires over most of the basin. Given the importance of human-atmosphere-vegetation interactions in tropical rainforests, these events have generated concerns over the vulnerability of this area to climate change. This paper focuses on one of the wettest areas of the basin, Northwestern Amazonia, where the interactions between the climate and fires are much weaker and where little is known about the anthropogenic drivers of fires. We have assessed the response of fires to climate over a ten-year period, and analysed the socio-economic and demographic determinants of fire occurrence. The patterns of fires and climate and their linkages in Northwestern Amazonia differ from the enhanced fire response to climate variation observed in the rest of Amazonia. The highest number of recorded fires in Northwestern Amazonia occurred in 2004 and 2007, and this did not coincide with the periods of extreme drought experienced in Amazonia in 2005 and 2010. Rather, during those years, Northwestern Amazonia experienced a relatively small numbers of fire hotspots. We have shown that fire occurrence correlated well with deforestation and was determined by anthropogenic drivers, mainly small-scale agriculture, cattle ranching (i.e., pastures) and active agricultural frontiers (including illegal crops). Thus, the particular climatic conditions for air convergence and rainfall created by proximity to the Andes, coupled with the presence of one of the most active colonisation fronts in the region, make this region differently affected by the general drought-induced fire patterns experienced by the rest of the Amazon. Moreover, the results suggest that, even in this wet region, humans are able to modify the frequency of fires and impact these historically well preserved forests.