Childhood vaccination coverage and equity impact in Ethiopia by socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, and child characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is a priority country of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance to improve vaccination coverage and equitable uptake. The Ethiopian National Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) and the Global Vaccine Action Plan set coverage goals of 90% at national level and 80% at district level by 2020. This study analyses full vaccination coverage among children in Ethiopia and estimates the equity impact by socioeconomic, geographic, maternal and child characteristics based on the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey dataset. METHODS: Full vaccination coverage (1-dose BCG, 3-dose DTP3-HepB-Hib, 3-dose polio, 1-dose measles (MCV1), 3-dose pneumococcal (PCV3), and 2-dose rotavirus vaccines) of 2,004 children aged 12-23 months was analysed. Mean coverage was disaggregated by socioeconomic (household wealth, religion, ethnicity), geographic (area of residence, region), maternal (maternal age at birth, maternal education, maternal marital status, sex of household head), and child (sex of child, birth order) characteristics. Concentration indices estimated wealth and education-related inequities, and multiple logistic regression assessed associations between full vaccination coverage and socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, and child characteristics. RESULTS: Full vaccination coverage was 33.3% [29.4-37.2] in 2016. Single vaccination coverage ranged from 49.1% [45.1-53.1] for PCV3 to 69.2% [65.5-72.8] for BCG. Wealth and maternal education related inequities were pronounced with concentration indices of 0.30 and 0.23 respectively. Children in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa were seven times more likely to have full vaccination compared to children living in the Afar region. Children in female-headed households were 49% less likely to have full vaccination. CONCLUSION: Vaccination coverage in Ethiopia has a pro-advantaged regressive distribution with respect to both household wealth and maternal education. Children from poorer households, rural regions of Afar and Somali, no maternal education, and female-headed households had lower full vaccination coverage. Targeted programmes to reach under-immunised children in these subpopulations will improve vaccination coverage and equity outcomes in Ethiopia.

Effects of updated demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden on estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination impact at the global, regional, and national levels: a PRIME modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) has been used around the world to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in girls. We updated PRIME with new data and methods for demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden, and generated revised estimates of the health impact of HPV vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels for 177 countries. METHODS: PRIME was updated with population demography of the UN World Population Prospects (UNWPP) 2019 revision, disability weights of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, and cervical cancer burden from the Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence (GLOBOCAN) 2018 database. We estimated the lifetime health benefits for bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccination of 9-year-old and 12-year-old girls at 90% coverage during 2020-29 in 177 countries. Health impact was presented in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths, or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted per 1000 vaccinated girls in comparison with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination, and the number of girls needed to be vaccinated to prevent a single case, death, or DALY. FINDINGS: In estimating the health impact of HPV vaccination of 9-year-old girls, the combined updates to demography, disability weights, cervical cancer burden estimates resulted in a 26% increase in the estimated number of cases averted, a 51% increase in deaths averted, and a 72% increase in DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated girls for both the bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines, compared with previous estimates. With the updated model, the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 15 cases, 12 deaths, and 243 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls, and the nonavalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 19 cases, 14 deaths, and 306 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls. The health benefits of vaccination of 12-year-old girls were estimated to be similar but slightly decreased in comparison with vaccination of 9-year-old girls. INTERPRETATION: HPV vaccination provides greater health benefits and is more cost-effective than was previously estimated. The demography update, which incorporates population aging, has the largest effect on the health impact estimates. The WHO African region is expected to gain the greatest health benefits and should be prioritised for HPV vaccination. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Environmental factors affecting ecological niche of Coccidioides species and spatial dynamics of valley fever in the United States.

Coccidioidomycosis is an understudied infectious disease acquired by inhaling fungal spores of Coccidioides species. While historically connected to the southwestern United States, the endemic region for this disease is not well defined. This study's objective was to estimate the impact of climate, soil, elevation and land cover on the Coccidioides species' ecological niche. This research used maximum entropy ecological niche modeling based on disease case data from 2015 to 2016. Results found mean temperature of the driest quarter, and barren, shrub, and cultivated land covers influential in characterizing the niche. In addition to hotspots in central California and Arizona, the Columbia Plateau ecoregion of Washington and Oregon showed more favorable conditions for fungus presence than surrounding areas. The identification of influential spatial drivers will assist in future modeling efforts, and the potential distribution map generated may aid public health officials in watching for potential hotspots, assessing vulnerability, and refining endemicity.

Serostatus testing and dengue vaccine cost-benefit thresholds.

The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a threshold modelling analysis, we identify settings where this guidance prohibits positive net-benefits, and are thus unfavourable. Generally, however, our model shows test-then-vaccinate strategies can improve CYD-TDV economic viability: effective testing reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing health benefits. With sufficiently low testing cost, those trends outweigh additional screening costs, expanding the range of settings with positive net-benefits. This work highlights two aspects for further analysis of test-then-vaccinate strategies. We found that starting routine testing at younger ages could increase benefits; if real tests are shown to sufficiently address safety concerns, the manufacturer, regulators and WHO should revisit guidance restricting use to 9-years-and-older recipients. We also found that repeat testing could improve return-on-investment (ROI), despite increasing intervention costs. Thus, more detailed analyses should address questions on repeat testing and testing periodicity, in addition to real test sensitivity and specificity. Our results follow from a mathematical model relating ROI to epidemiology, intervention strategy, and costs for testing, vaccination and dengue infections. We applied this model to a range of strategies, costs and epidemiological settings pertinent to CYD-TDV. However, general trends may not apply locally, so we provide our model and analyses as an R package available via CRAN, denvax. To apply to their setting, decision-makers need only local estimates of age-specific seroprevalence and costs for secondary infections.

Impact of demographic disparities in social distancing and vaccination on influenza epidemics in urban and rural regions of the United States.

BACKGROUND: Self-protective behaviors of social distancing and vaccination uptake vary by demographics and affect the transmission dynamics of influenza in the United States. By incorporating the socio-behavioral differences in social distancing and vaccination uptake into mathematical models of influenza transmission dynamics, we can improve our estimates of epidemic outcomes. In this study we analyze the impact of demographic disparities in social distancing and vaccination on influenza epidemics in urban and rural regions of the United States. METHODS: We conducted a survey of a nationally representative sample of US adults to collect data on their self-protective behaviors, including social distancing and vaccination to protect themselves from influenza infection. We incorporated this data in an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of influenza in the urban region of Miami Dade county in Florida and the rural region of Montgomery county in Virginia. RESULTS: We compare epidemic scenarios wherein the social distancing and vaccination behaviors are uniform versus non-uniform across different demographic subpopulations. We infer that a uniform compliance of social distancing and vaccination uptake among different demographic subpopulations underestimates the severity of the epidemic in comparison to differentiated compliance among different demographic subpopulations. This result holds for both urban and rural regions. CONCLUSIONS: By taking into account the behavioral differences in social distancing and vaccination uptake among different demographic subpopulations in analysis of influenza epidemics, we provide improved estimates of epidemic outcomes that can assist in improved public health interventions for prevention and control of influenza.

Demographics, perceptions, and socioeconomic factors affecting influenza vaccination among adults in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective is to analyze influenza vaccination status by demographic factors, perceived vaccine efficacy, social influence, herd immunity, vaccine cost, health insurance status, and barriers to influenza vaccination among adults 18 years and older in the United States. BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination coverage among adults 18 years and older was 41% during 2010-2011 and has increased and plateaued at 43% during 2016-2017. This is below the target of 70% influenza vaccination coverage among adults, which is an objective of the Healthy People 2020 initiative. METHODS: We conducted a survey of a nationally representative sample of adults 18 years and older in the United States on factors affecting influenza vaccination. We conducted bivariate analysis using Rao-Scott chi-square test and multivariate analysis using weighted multinomial logistic regression of this survey data to determine the effect of demographics, perceived vaccine efficacy, social influence, herd immunity, vaccine cost, health insurance, and barriers associated with influenza vaccination uptake among adults in the United States. RESULTS: Influenza vaccination rates are relatively high among adults in older age groups (73.3% among 75 + year old), adults with education levels of bachelor's degree or higher (45.1%), non-Hispanic Whites (41.8%), adults with higher incomes (52.8% among adults with income of over $150,000), partnered adults (43.2%), non-working adults (46.2%), and adults with internet access (39.9%). Influenza vaccine is taken every year by 76% of adults who perceive that the vaccine is very effective, 64.2% of adults who are socially influenced by others, and 41.8% of adults with health insurance, while 72.3% of adults without health insurance never get vaccinated. Facilitators for adults getting vaccinated every year in comparison to only some years include older age, perception of high vaccine effectiveness, higher income and no out-of-pocket payments. Barriers for adults never getting vaccinated in comparison to only some years include lack of health insurance, disliking of shots, perception of low vaccine effectiveness, low perception of risk for influenza infection, and perception of risky side effects. CONCLUSION: Influenza vaccination rates among adults in the United States can be improved towards the Healthy People 2020 target of 70% by increasing awareness of the safety, efficacy and need for influenza vaccination, leveraging the practices and principles of commercial and social marketing to improve vaccine trust, confidence and acceptance, and lowering out-of-pocket expenses and covering influenza vaccination costs through health insurance.

Epidemiological Effectiveness and Cost of a Fungal Meningitis Outbreak Response in New River Valley, Virginia: Local Health Department and Clinical Perspectives.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the effectiveness and cost of a fungal meningitis outbreak response in the New River Valley of Virginia during 2012-2013 from the perspective of the local public health department and clinical facilities. The fungal meningitis outbreak affected 23 states in the United States with 751 cases and 64 deaths in 20 states; there were 56 cases and 5 deaths in Virginia. METHODS: We conducted a partial economic evaluation of the fungal meningitis outbreak response in New River Valley. We collected costs associated with the local health department and clinical facilities in the outbreak response and estimated the epidemiological effectiveness by using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. RESULTS: We estimated the epidemiological effectiveness of this outbreak response to be 153 DALYs averted among the patients, and the costs incurred by the local health department and clinical facilities to be $30,413 and $39,580, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $198 per DALY averted and $258 per DALY averted from the local health department and clinical perspectives, respectively, thereby assisting in impact evaluation of the outbreak response by the local health department and clinical facilities. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:38-46).

Multi-scale immunoepidemiological modeling of within-host and between-host HIV dynamics: systematic review of mathematical models.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review of multi-scale HIV immunoepidemiological models to improve our understanding of the synergistic impact between the HIV viral-immune dynamics at the individual level and HIV transmission dynamics at the population level. BACKGROUND: While within-host and between-host models of HIV dynamics have been well studied at a single scale, connecting the immunological and epidemiological scales through multi-scale models is an emerging method to infer the synergistic dynamics of HIV at the individual and population levels. METHODS: We reviewed nine articles using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework that focused on the synergistic dynamics of HIV immunoepidemiological models at the individual and population levels. RESULTS: HIV immunoepidemiological models simulate viral immune dynamics at the within-host scale and the epidemiological transmission dynamics at the between-host scale. They account for longitudinal changes in the immune viral dynamics of HIV+ individuals, and their corresponding impact on the transmission dynamics in the population. They are useful to analyze the dynamics of HIV super-infection, co-infection, drug resistance, evolution, and treatment in HIV+ individuals, and their impact on the epidemic pathways in the population. We illustrate the coupling mechanisms of the within-host and between-host scales, their mathematical implementation, and the clinical and public health problems that are appropriate for analysis using HIV immunoepidemiological models. CONCLUSION: HIV immunoepidemiological models connect the within-host immune dynamics at the individual level and the epidemiological transmission dynamics at the population level. While multi-scale models add complexity over a single-scale model, they account for the time varying immune viral response of HIV+ individuals, and the corresponding impact on the time-varying risk of transmission of HIV+ individuals to other susceptibles in the population.

Epidemiological and economic impact of pandemic influenza in Chicago: Priorities for vaccine interventions.

The study objective is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccine interventions during influenza pandemics in Chicago, and assist in vaccine intervention priorities. Scenarios of delay in vaccine introduction with limited vaccine efficacy and limited supplies are not unlikely in future influenza pandemics, as in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. We simulated influenza pandemics in Chicago using agent-based transmission dynamic modeling. Population was distributed among high-risk and non-high risk among 0-19, 20-64 and 65+ years subpopulations. Different attack rate scenarios for catastrophic (30.15%), strong (21.96%), and moderate (11.73%) influenza pandemics were compared against vaccine intervention scenarios, at 40% coverage, 40% efficacy, and unit cost of $28.62. Sensitivity analysis for vaccine compliance, vaccine efficacy and vaccine start date was also conducted. Vaccine prioritization criteria include risk of death, total deaths, net benefits, and return on investment. The risk of death is the highest among the high-risk 65+ years subpopulation in the catastrophic influenza pandemic, and highest among the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The proportion of total deaths and net benefits are the highest among the high-risk 20-64 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The return on investment is the highest in the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. Based on risk of death and return on investment, high-risk groups of the three age group subpopulations can be prioritized for vaccination, and the vaccine interventions are cost saving for all age and risk groups. The attack rates among the children are higher than among the adults and seniors in the catastrophic, strong, and moderate influenza pandemic scenarios, due to their larger social contact network and homophilous interactions in school. Based on return on investment and higher attack rates among children, we recommend prioritizing children (0-19 years) and seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies. Based on risk of death, we recommend prioritizing seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies.

Semantic network analysis of vaccine sentiment in online social media.

OBJECTIVE: To examine current vaccine sentiment on social media by constructing and analyzing semantic networks of vaccine information from highly shared websites of Twitter users in the United States; and to assist public health communication of vaccines. BACKGROUND: Vaccine hesitancy continues to contribute to suboptimal vaccination coverage in the United States, posing significant risk of disease outbreaks, yet remains poorly understood. METHODS: We constructed semantic networks of vaccine information from internet articles shared by Twitter users in the United States. We analyzed resulting network topology, compared semantic differences, and identified the most salient concepts within networks expressing positive, negative, and neutral vaccine sentiment. RESULTS: The semantic network of positive vaccine sentiment demonstrated greater cohesiveness in discourse compared to the larger, less-connected network of negative vaccine sentiment. The positive sentiment network centered around parents and focused on communicating health risks and benefits, highlighting medical concepts such as measles, autism, HPV vaccine, vaccine-autism link, meningococcal disease, and MMR vaccine. In contrast, the negative network centered around children and focused on organizational bodies such as CDC, vaccine industry, doctors, mainstream media, pharmaceutical companies, and United States. The prevalence of negative vaccine sentiment was demonstrated through diverse messaging, framed around skepticism and distrust of government organizations that communicate scientific evidence supporting positive vaccine benefits. CONCLUSION: Semantic network analysis of vaccine sentiment in online social media can enhance understanding of the scope and variability of current attitudes and beliefs toward vaccines. Our study synthesizes quantitative and qualitative evidence from an interdisciplinary approach to better understand complex drivers of vaccine hesitancy for public health communication, to improve vaccine confidence and vaccination coverage in the United States.

Facilitators and barriers of parental attitudes and beliefs toward school-located influenza vaccination in the United States: Systematic review.

The study objective was to identify facilitators and barriers of parental attitudes and beliefs toward school-located influenza vaccination in the United States. In 2009, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expanded their recommendations for influenza vaccination to include school-aged children. We conducted a systematic review of studies focused on facilitators and barriers of parental attitudes toward school-located influenza vaccination in the United States from 1990 to 2016. We reviewed 11 articles by use of the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework. Facilitators were free/low cost vaccination; having belief in vaccine efficacy, influenza severity, and susceptibility; belief that vaccination is beneficial, important, and a social norm; perception of school setting advantages; trust; and parental presence. Barriers were cost; concerns regarding vaccine safety, efficacy, equipment sterility, and adverse effects; perception of school setting barriers; negative physician advice of contraindications; distrust in vaccines and school-located vaccination programs; and health information privacy concerns. We identified the facilitators and barriers of parental attitudes and beliefs toward school-located influenza vaccination to assist in the evidence-based design and implementation of influenza vaccination programs targeted for children in the United States and to improve influenza vaccination coverage for population-wide health benefits.

Clinical Response, Outbreak Investigation, and Epidemiology of the Fungal Meningitis Epidemic in the United States: Systematic Review.

We conducted a systematic review of the 2012-2013 multistate fungal meningitis epidemic in the United States from the perspectives of clinical response, outbreak investigation, and epidemiology. Articles focused on clinical response, outbreak investigation, and epidemiology were included, whereas articles focused on compounding pharmacies, legislation and litigation, diagnostics, microbiology, and pathogenesis were excluded. We reviewed 19 articles by use of the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework. The source of the fungal meningitis outbreak was traced to the New England Compounding Center in Massachusetts, where injectable methylprednisolone acetate products were contaminated with the predominant pathogen, Exserohilum rostratum. As of October 23, 2013, the final case count stood at 751 patients and 64 deaths, and no additional cases are anticipated. The multisectoral public health response to the fungal meningitis epidemic from the hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, and the public health system at the local, state, and federal levels led to an efficient epidemiological investigation to trace the outbreak source and rapid implementation of multiple response plans. This systematic review reaffirms the effective execution of a multisectoral public health response and efficient delivery of the core functions of public health assessment, policy development, and service assurances to improve population health.

Economic Evaluation of Fungal Meningitis Outbreak Response in New River Valley: Local Health Department Perspective.

BACKGROUND: The multi-state fungal meningitis outbreak started in September 2012 in Tennessee. The cause of the outbreak was injection of contaminated lots of methylprednisolone acetate used in epidural spinal injections. Roanoke and New River Valley were the epicenter of this outbreak in Virginia, with two clinical centers having administered the contaminated injections to their patients. New River Health District, in coordination with hospitals, and state and federal agencies, deployed its resources to control the local impact of the outbreak. PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the fungal meningitis outbreak response in New River Valley of Virginia, from the local public health department perspective. METHODS: The health department conducted the outbreak investigation from October 2012 until March 2013 to ascertain that all possible cases were identified and treated. Data were collected on the costs associated with the local health department in the outbreak response, and the epidemiologic effectiveness estimated, using the metric of disability adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: The cost incurred by the local health department was estimated to be $30,493; the epidemiologic effectiveness was estimated to be 138 DALYs averted among the patients, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $221 per DALY averted. IMPLICATIONS: The incremental cost effectiveness ratio of the fungal meningitis outbreak response in New River Valley assists the local health department to analyze the costs and epidemiologic effectiveness of the outbreak response.

Epidemiological Modeling of Bovine Brucellosis in India.

The study objective is to develop an epidemiological model of brucellosis transmission dynamics among cattle in India and to estimate the impact of different prevention and control strategies. The prevention and control strategies are test-and-slaughter, transmission rate reduction, and mass vaccination. We developed a mathematical model based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered epidemic model to simulate brucellosis transmission dynamics, calibrated to the endemically stable levels of bovine brucellosis prevalence of cattle in India. We analyzed the epidemiological benefit of different rates of reduced transmission and vaccination. Test-and-slaughter is an effective strategy for elimination and eradication of brucellosis, but socio-cultural constraints forbid culling of cattle in India. Reducing transmission rates lowered the endemically stable levels of brucellosis prevalence correspondingly. One-time vaccination lowered prevalence initially but increased with influx of new susceptible births. While this epidemiological model is a basic representation of brucellosis transmission dynamics in India and constrained by limitations in surveillance data, this study illustrates the comparative epidemiological impact of different bovine brucellosis prevention and control strategies.

Spatial Big Data Analytics of Influenza Epidemic in Vellore, India.

The study objective is to develop a big spatial data model to predict the epidemiological impact of influenza in Vellore, India. Large repositories of geospatial and health data provide vital statistics on surveillance and epidemiological metrics, and valuable insight into the spatiotemporal determinants of disease and health. The integration of these big data sources and analytics to assess risk factors and geospatial vulnerability can assist to develop effective prevention and control strategies for influenza epidemics and optimize allocation of limited public health resources. We used the spatial epidemiology data of the HIN1 epidemic collected at the National Informatics Center during 2009-2010 in Vellore. We developed an ecological niche model based on geographically weighted regression for predicting influenza epidemics in Vellore, India during 2013-2014. Data on rainfall, temperature, wind speed, humidity and population are included in the geographically weighted regression analysis. We inferred positive correlations for H1N1 influenza prevalence with rainfall and wind speed, and negative correlations for H1N1 influenza prevalence with temperature and humidity. We evaluated the results of the geographically weighted regression model in predicting the spatial distribution of the influenza epidemic during 2013-2014.

Editorial Comment: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Prioritization of Limited Public Health Resources - Tuberculosis Interventions in Texas.

Public health departments have limited evidence to understand and analyze the costs and benefits of different health programs, including tuberculosis control and prevention programs. The study by Miller et. al addresses this challenge to estimate costs and benefits of tuberculosis prevention programs in Texas and identify cost-effective diagnostic and treatment combinations, thereby improving the evidence-based decision making power of the public health departments.

Rethinking health systems strengthening: key systems thinking tools and strategies for transformational change.

While reaching consensus on future plans to address current global health challenges is far from easy, there is broad agreement that reductionist approaches that suggest a limited set of targeted interventions to improve health around the world are inadequate. We argue that a comprehensive systems perspective should guide health practice, education, research and policy. We propose key 'systems thinking' tools and strategies that have the potential for transformational change in health systems. Three overarching themes span these tools and strategies: collaboration across disciplines, sectors and organizations; ongoing, iterative learning; and transformational leadership. The proposed tools and strategies in this paper can be applied, in varying degrees, to every organization within health systems, from families and communities to national ministries of health. While our categorization is necessarily incomplete, this initial effort will provide a valuable contribution to the health systems strengthening debate, as the need for a more systemic, rigorous perspective in health has never been greater.