Comparing Deliveries of Sterile Codling Moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) by Two Types of Unmanned Aerial Systems and from the Ground.

New Zealand apple exports must meet strict phytosanitary measures to eliminate codling moth (Cydia pomonella Linnaeus) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) larval infestation. This study was part of a program attempting the localized eradication of codling moth within an isolated cluster of seven orchards (391 ha). A conventional management program of insecticide sprays and pheromone mating disruption was supplemented with weekly releases of sterile moths for 1-6 yr. Our objective was to compare the recapture rate of sterile moths following their release by four methods, and the efficiency of each system. The methods were the following: a fixed-wing unmanned plane flying ~40-45 m high at 70 km/h, an unmanned hexacopter travelling 20 m high at 25 km/h, and manually from the ground via bicycles or motor vehicles. The different release methods were used in different years or weeks. Sterile male moths were recaptured in grids of pheromone traps positioned throughout each orchard. The highest recapture rate followed delivery by hexacopter, then bicycle, vehicle, and plane. There was a 17-fold difference in catches between releases by hexacopter and plane, and sixfold between vehicle and plane in the same season. Bicycle delivery had a 3.5-fold higher recapture rate than the plane in different years. The wind-borne horizontal drift of moths was investigated as a possible explanation for the disparity of recaptures between the two aircraft delivery systems. The methods in ascending order of time per hectare for delivery were the following: plane and vehicle, hexacopter, then bicycle. The advantages and disadvantages of each moth delivery method are discussed.

Risk Factors for Readmissions After Total Joint Replacement: A Meta-Analysis.

¼: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictive modeling studies examining the risk of readmission after total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in order to synthesize key risk factors and evaluate their pooled effects. Our analysis entailed 15 compliant studies for qualitative review and 17 compliant studies for quantitative meta-analysis. ¼: A qualitative review of 15 predictive modeling studies highlighted 5 key risk factors for risk of readmission after THA and/or TKA: age, length of stay, readmission reduction policy, use of peripheral nerve block, and type of joint replacement procedure. ¼: A meta-analysis of 17 studies unveiled 3 significant risk factors: discharge to a skilled nursing facility rather than to home (approximately 61% higher risk), surgery at a low- or medium-procedure-volume hospital (approximately 26% higher risk), and the presence of patient obesity (approximately 34% higher risk). We demonstrated clinically meaningful relationships between these factors and moderator variables of procedure type, source of data used for model-building, and the proportion of male patients in the cohort. ¼: We found that many studies did not adhere to gold-standard criteria for reporting and study construction based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) and NOS (Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) methodologies. ¼: We recommend that these risk factors be considered in clinical practice and future work alike as they relate to surgical, discharge, and care decision-making. Future work should also prioritize greater observance of gold-standard reporting criteria for predictive models.

Sensorimotor delays in tracking may be compensated by negative feedback control of motion-extrapolated position.

Sensorimotor delays dictate that humans act on outdated perceptual information. As a result, continuous manual tracking of an unpredictable target incurs significant response delays. However, no such delays are observed for repeating targets such as the sinusoids. Findings of this kind have led researchers to claim that the nervous system constructs predictive, probabilistic models of the world. However, a more parsimonious explanation is that visual perception of a moving target position is systematically biased by its velocity. The resultant extrapolated position could be compared with the cursor position and the difference canceled by negative feedback control, compensating sensorimotor delays. The current study tested whether a position extrapolation model fit human tracking of sinusoid (predictable) and pseudorandom (less predictable) targets better than the non-biased position control model, Twenty-eight participants tracked these targets and the two computational models were fit to the data at 60 fixed loop delay values (simulating sensorimotor delays). We observed that pseudorandom targets were tracked with a significantly greater phase delay than sinusoid targets. For sinusoid targets, the position extrapolation model simulated tracking results more accurately for loop delays longer than 120 ms, thereby confirming its ability to compensate for sensorimotor delays. However, for pseudorandom targets, this advantage arose only after 300 ms, indicating that velocity information is unlikely to be exploited in this way during the tracking of less predictable targets. We conclude that negative feedback control of position is a parsimonious model for tracking pseudorandom targets and that negative feedback control of extrapolated position is a parsimonious model for tracking sinusoidal targets.

Risk Factors for Readmission After Knee Arthroplasty Based on Predictive Models: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: An increase in the aging yet active US population will continue to make total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedures routine in the coming decades. For such joint procedures, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services introduced programs such as the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement to emphasize accountable and efficient transitions of care. Accordingly, many studies have proposed models using risk factors for predicting readmissions after the procedure. We performed a systematic review of TKA literature to identify such models and risk factors therein using a reliable appraisal tool for their quality assessment. METHODS: Five databases were searched to identify studies that examined correlations between post-TKA readmission and risk factors using multivariate models. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis methodology and Transparent Reporting of a multivariate prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis criteria established for quality assessment of prognostic studies. RESULTS: Of 29 models in the final selection, 6 models reported performance using a C-statistic, ranging from 0.51 to 0.76, and 2 studies used a validation cohort for assessment. The average 30-day and 90-day readmission rates across the studies were 5.33% and 7.12%, respectively. Three new significant risk factors were discovered. CONCLUSIONS: Current models for TKA readmissions lack in performance measurement and reporting when assessed with established criteria. In addition to using new techniques for better performance, work is needed to build models that follow the systematic process of calibration, external validation, and reporting for pursuing their deployment in clinical settings.

Predictive models for identifying risk of readmission after index hospitalization for hip arthroplasty: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: An aging United States population profoundly impacts healthcare from both a medical and financial standpoint, especially with an increase in related procedures such as Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA). The Hospital Readmission Reduction Program and Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Program incentivize hospitals to decrease post-operative readmissions by correlating reimbursements with smoother care transitions, thereby decreasing hospital burden and improving quantifiable patient outcomes. Many studies have proposed predictive models built upon risk factors for predicting 30-day THA readmissions. QUESTIONS: (1) Are there validated statistical models that predict 30-day readmissions for THA patients when appraised with a standards-based, reliable assessment tool?. (2) Which evidence-based factors are significant and have support across models for predicting risk of 30-day readmissions post-THA? METHODS: Five major electronic databases were searched to identify studies that examined correlations between post-THA readmission and risk factors using multivariate models. We rigorously applied the PRISMA methodology and TRIPOD criteria for assessment of the prognostic studies. RESULTS: We found 26 studies that offered predictive models, of which two presented models tested with validation cohorts. In addition to the many factors grouped into demographic, administrative, and clinical categories, bleeding disorder, higher ASA status, discharge disposition, and functional status appeared to have broad and significant support across the studies. CONCLUSIONS: Reporting of recent predictive models establishing risk factors for 30-day THA readmissions against the current standard could be improved. Aside from building better performing models, more work is needed to follow the thorough process of undergoing calibration, external validation, and integration with existing EHR systems for pursuing their use in clinical settings. There are several risk factors that are significant in multiple models; these factors should be closely examined clinically and leveraged in future risk modeling efforts.

Predictive models for identifying risk of readmission after index hospitalization for heart failure: A systematic review.

AIMS: Readmission rates for patients with heart failure have consistently remained high over the past two decades. As more electronic data, computing power, and newer statistical techniques become available, data-driven care could be achieved by creating predictive models for adverse outcomes such as readmissions. We therefore aimed to review models for predicting risk of readmission for patients admitted for heart failure. We also aimed to analyze and possibly group the predictors used across the models. METHODS: Major electronic databases were searched to identify studies that examined correlation between readmission for heart failure and risk factors using multivariate models. We rigorously followed the review process using PRISMA methodology and other established criteria for quality assessment of the studies. RESULTS: We did a detailed review of 334 papers and found 25 multivariate predictive models built using data from either health system or trials. A majority of models was built using multiple logistic regression followed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Some newer studies ventured into non-parametric and machine learning methods. Overall predictive accuracy with C-statistics ranged from 0.59 to 0.84. We examined significant predictors across the studies using clinical, administrative, and psychosocial groups. CONCLUSIONS: Complex disease management and correspondingly increasing costs for heart failure are driving innovations in building risk prediction models for readmission. Large volumes of diverse electronic data and new statistical methods have improved the predictive power of the models over the past two decades. More work is needed for calibration, external validation, and deployment of such models for clinical use.

Perceptual control models of pursuit manual tracking demonstrate individual specificity and parameter consistency.

Computational models that simulate individuals' movements in pursuit-tracking tasks have been used to elucidate mechanisms of human motor control. Whilst there is evidence that individuals demonstrate idiosyncratic control-tracking strategies, it remains unclear whether models can be sensitive to these idiosyncrasies. Perceptual control theory (PCT) provides a unique model architecture with an internally set reference value parameter, and can be optimized to fit an individual's tracking behavior. The current study investigated whether PCT models could show temporal stability and individual specificity over time. Twenty adults completed three blocks of 15 1-min, pursuit-tracking trials. Two blocks (training and post-training) were completed in one session and the third was completed after 1 week (follow-up). The target moved in a one-dimensional, pseudorandom pattern. PCT models were optimized to the training data using a least-mean-squares algorithm, and validated with data from post-training and follow-up. We found significant inter-individual variability (partial η2: .464-.697) and intra-individual consistency (Cronbach's α: .880-.976) in parameter estimates. Polynomial regression revealed that all model parameters, including the reference value parameter, contribute to simulation accuracy. Participants' tracking performances were significantly more accurately simulated by models developed from their own tracking data than by models developed from other participants' data. We conclude that PCT models can be optimized to simulate the performance of an individual and that the test-retest reliability of individual models is a necessary criterion for evaluating computational models of human performance.