Determinants of time to viral clearance among SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals at Millennium COVID-19 care center in Ethiopia: A prospective observational study

Background: Understanding the COVID-19 disease course in terms of viral shedding is important to assist in providing a tailored isolation and treatment practice. Therefore, the current study aimed to estimate time to viral clearance and identify determinants among SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia. Methods: A Prospective observational study was conducted among 360 randomly selected SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals who were on follow up from 2nd June to 5th July 2020. Kaplan Meier plots, median survival times, and Log-rank test were used to describe the data and compare survival distribution between groups. Association between time to viral clearance and determinants was assessed using the Cox proportional hazard survival model, where hazard ratio, P-value, and 95% CI for hazard ratio were used for testing significance Results: The Median time to viral clearance was 16 days. The log-rank test shows that having moderate and severe disease, one or more symptoms at presentation, and presenting with respiratory and constitutional symptoms seems to extend the time needed to achieve viral clearance. The Final Cox regression result shows that the rate of achieving viral clearance among symptomatic patients was 44% lower than patients who were asymptomatic (AHR=0.560, 95% CI=0.322-0.975, p-value=0.040). Conclusions: Presence of symptoms was found to be associated with delayed viral clearance implying that symptomatic patients are more likely to be infectious and therefore, attention should be paid to the practices regarding isolation and treatment of COVID-19 patients.

Factors associated with development of symptomatic disease in Ethiopian COVID-19 patients: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Studies show that having some symptoms seems to be associated with more severe disease and poor prognosis. Therefore, knowing who is more susceptible to symptomatic COVID-19 disease is important to provide targeted preventive and management practice. The aim of the study was to assess factors associated with the development of symptomatic disease among COVID-19 patients admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted from August to September 2020 among a randomly selected 730 COVID-19 patients (337 Asymptomatic and 393 Symptomatic patients). Chi-square test and independent t-test were used to detect the presence of a statistically significant difference in the characteristics of the cases (symptomatic) and controls (asymptomatic), where p-value of < 0.05 considered as having a statistically significant difference. Multivariable binary logistic regression was used to assess a statistically significant association between the independent variables and developing symptomatic COVID-19 where Adjusted Odds ratio (AOR), 95% CIs for AOR, and P-values were used for testing significance and interpretation of results. RESULTS: The result of the multivariable binary logistic regression shows that age group (AOR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.25, 2.87, p-value = 0.002 for 30-39 years; AOR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.06, 2.73, p-value = 0.028 for 40-49 years and AOR = 4.42, 95% CI = 2.75, 7.12, p-value = 0.0001 for ≥50 years), sex (AOR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.26, 2.45, p-value = 0.001) and history of diabetes mellitus (AOR = 3.90, 95% CI = 1.92, 7.94, p-value = 0.0001) were found to be significant factors that determine the development of symptomatic disease in COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Developing a symptomatic COVID-19 disease was found to be associated with exposures of old age, male sex, and being diabetic. Therefore, patients with the above factors should be given enough attention in the prevention and management process, including inpatient management, to pick symptoms earlier and to manage accordingly so that these patients can have a favorable treatment outcome.