Quantifying climate change impacts on future water resources and salinity transport in a high semi-arid watershed.

High salinity mobilization and movement from salt-laden deposits in semi-arid landscapes impair soils and water resources worldwide. Semi-arid regions worldwide are expected to experience rising temperatures and lower precipitation, impacting water supply and spatio-temporal patterns of salinity loads and affecting downstream water quality. This study quantifies the impact of future climate on hydrologic fluxes and salt loads in the Gunnison River Watershed (GRW) (14,608 km2), Colorado, using the APEX-MODFLOW-Salt hydro-chemical watershed model and three different CMIP5 climate models projection downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) for the period 2020-2099. The APEX-MODFLOW-Salt model accounts for the reactive transport of major salt ions (SO42-, Cl-, CO32-, HCO3-, Ca2+, Na+, Mg2+, and K+) to streams via surface runoff, rainfall erosional runoff, soil lateral flow, quick return flow and groundwater-stream exchange. Model results are analyzed for spatial and temporal trends in water yield and salt loading pathways. Although streamflow is primarily derived from surface runoff (65%), the predominant source of salt loads is the aquifer (73%) due to elevated concentrations of groundwater salt. Annual salt loading from the watershed is 582 Mkg, approximately 10% of the salt load in the Colorado River measured at Lee's Ferry, AZ. For future climate scenarios, annual salt loads from the watershed increased between 4.1% and 9.6% from the historical period due to increased salt loading from groundwater and quick return flow. From the results, applying the APEX-MODFLOW-Salt model with downscaled future climate forcings can be a helpful modeling framework for investigating hydrology and salt mobilization, transport, and export in historical and predictive settings for salt-affected watersheds.

The impact of rainfall distribution methods on streamflow throughout multiple elevations in the Rocky Mountains using the APEX model-Price River watershed, Utah.

The hydrology of mountainous watersheds in the western United States is significantly influenced by snow year-round. It is widely known that topography affects precipitation; however, the knowledge of how watershed rainfall designation methods affect streamflow is not well understood for high-relief areas. The objectives of this study were to assess the predictive capability of the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to simulate streamflow in a snowmelt-dominated watershed with high spatial rainfall variability through (a) allocating weather stations to sub-basins based on a conventional Thiessen polygon method (CM) or a rainfall-elevation-based input (RE) and using an areal average Parameter-Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) rainfall designation and (b) improving the snowmelt processes in the Price River watershed, Utah. The updated APEX model with snowmelt parameters significantly improved spring flood simulation. The RE was the most robust method in snowmelt and seasonal streamflow simulations compared with the CM and PRISM rainfall designations. Adapting the APEX model to simulate snow-dominant complex terrains will provide crucial water quantity and quality predictions for reliable environmental and watershed management assessment.