RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Public health threats can significantly impact mass gatherings and enhancing surveillance systems would thus be crucial. Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) was introduced to Qatar to complement the existing surveillance measures in preparation to the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 (FWC22). This study estimated the empirical probability of EIOS detecting signals of public health relevance. It also looked at the factors responsible for discerning a moderate-high risk signal during a mass gathering event. METHODS: This cross-sectional descriptive study used data collected between November 8th and December 25th, 2022, through an EIOS dashboard that filtered open-source articles using specific keywords. Triage criteria and scoring scheme were developed to capture signals and these were maintained in MS Excel. EIOS' contribution to epidemic intelligence was assessed by the empirical probability estimation of relevant public health signals. Chi-squared tests of independence were performed to check for associations between various hazard categories and other independent variables. A multivariate logistic regression evaluated the predictors of moderate-high risk signals that required prompt action. RESULTS: The probability of EIOS capturing a signal relevant to public health was estimated at 0.85 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) [0.82 %-0.88 %]) with three signals requiring a national response. The hazard category of the signal had significant association to the region of occurrence (χ2 (5, N = 2543) = 1021.6, p < .001). The hazard category also showed significant association to its detection during matchdays of the tournament (χ2 (5, N = 2543) = 11.2, p < .05). The triage criteria developed was able to discern between low and moderate-high risk signals with an acceptable discrimination (Area Under the Curve=0.79). CONCLUSION: EIOS proved useful in the early warning of public health threats.
