Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Popliteal artery thrombosis following total knee arthroplasty managed successfully with percutaneous intervention.

Acute popliteal artery thrombosis is a rare complication following total knee arthroplasty (TKA), with sequelae including critical limb ischaemia and amputation. We report the case of a 54-year-old woman who developed acute popliteal artery thrombosis following TKA, presenting 2 weeks after the initial symptoms. While such cases have been traditionally managed with surgical thrombectomy or bypass grafting, percutaneous aspiration thrombectomy is an emerging alternative management strategy in the early postoperative period. However, in patients in whom intervention is delayed, the efficacy of percutaneous aspiration thrombectomy is not known. Our patient had complete resolution of thrombus following percutaneous thrombus aspiration, angioplasty and tirofiban administration. Prompt diagnosis and early percutaneous intervention may avert critical limb ischaemia in patients presenting with popliteal artery thrombosis following TKA.

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms.

Pancreatic cysts include inflammatory lesions, low-grade neoplasms, and malignant neoplasms. Cystic neoplasms may prompt investigation because of symptoms such as abdominal pain, distension, jaundice, or nausea, but they are usually incidentally discovered. In the older literature, pseudocysts related to acute and chronic pancreatitis accounted for the majority of pancreatic cysts, but it is difficult to differentiate pancreatic cystic neoplasms from pseudocysts even with high-resolution modalities including computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Additionally, the more recent literature has shown that small pancreatic cystic lesions are relatively common as incidental findings on cross-sectional imaging examinations that are performed for other reasons, typically in older patients without prior episodes of pancreatitis; these are often low-grade mucinous lesions or occasionally epithelial cysts. Endoscopic ultrasound with fine-needle aspiration has emerged as a prime modality in delineating such cystic lesions. There has been an exponential increase in the more recent literature regarding pancreatic cystic lesions. The purpose of this review article is to provide a concise overview of these pancreatic cystic lesions.

Body mass index: a marker for significant colorectal neoplasia in a screening population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although some studies suggest a positive association between increasing body mass index (BMI) and risk for colorectal neoplasia, the impact on screening has not been examined. We performed a cross-sectional study to examine the association of BMI and colorectal neoplasia in a screening population. METHODS: Data collected for 2493 patients presenting for screening colonoscopy included known risk factors for colorectal neoplasia, demographic information, and lifestyle factors. Our outcome was the endoscopic detection of significant colorectal neoplasia which included adenocarcinoma, high-grade dysplasia, villous tissue, adenomas 1 cm or greater and multiple (>2) adenomas of any size. RESULTS: Overall, we observed an increased risk and prevalence for significant colorectal neoplasia in women as BMI increased (P value for trend <0.002). This relationship was the strongest for the women with a BMI > or =40 (odds ratios=4.26; 95% confidence intervals=2.00-9.11). There was no such relationship in our male population. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing BMI, in our population, was associated with an increase risk for colorectal neoplasia in female patients. This study reinforces the importance of screening colonoscopy especially in obese women.