A novel mechanistic modelling approach for microbial selection dynamics: Towards improved design and control of raceway reactors for purple bacteria.

Purple phototrophic bacteria (PPB) show an underexplored potential for resource recovery from wastewater. Raceway reactors offer a more affordable full-scale solution on wastewater and enable useful additional aerobic processes. Current mathematical models of PPB systems provide useful mechanistic insights, but do not represent the full metabolic versatility of PPB and thus require further advancement to simulate the process for technology development and control. In this study, a new modelling approach for PPB that integrates the photoheterotrophic, and both anaerobic and aerobic chemoheterotrophic metabolic pathways through an empirical parallel metabolic growth constant was proposed. It aimed the modelling of microbial selection dynamics in competition with aerobic and anaerobic microbial community under different operational scenarios. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify the most influential parameters within the model and calibrate them based on experimental data. Process perturbation scenarios were simulated, which showed a good performance of the model.

Enhancing water access monitoring through mapping multi-source usage and disaggregated geographic inequalities with machine learning and surveys.

Monitoring safe water access in developing countries relies primarily on household health survey and census data. These surveys are often incomplete: they tend to focus on the primary water source only, are spatially coarse, and usually happen every 5-10 years, during which significant changes can happen in urbanisation and infrastructure provision, especially in sub Saharan Africa. In this work, we present a data-driven approach that utilises and compliments survey based data of water access, to provide context-specific and disaggregated monitoring. The level of access to improved water and sanitation has been shown to vary with geographical inequalities related to the availability of water resources and terrain, population density and socio-economic determinants such as income and education. We use such data and successfully predict the level of water access in areas for which data is lacking, providing spatially explicit and community level monitoring possibilities for mapping geographical inequalities in access. This is showcased by applying three machine learning models that use such geographical data to predict the number of presences of water access points of eight different access types across Uganda, with a 1km by 1km grid resolution. Two Multi-Layer-Perceptron (MLP) models and a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model are developed and compared, where the former are shown to consistently outperform the latter. The best performing Neural Network model achieved a True Positive Rate of 0.89 and a False Positive Rate of 0.24, compared to 0.85 and 0.46 respectively for the MaxEnt model. The models improve on previous work on water point modeling through the use of neural networks, in addition to introducing the True Positive - and False Positive Rate as better evaluation metrics to also assess the MaxEnt model. We also present a scaling method to move from predicting only the relative probability of water point presences, to predicting the absolute number of presences. To challenge both the model results and the more standard health surveys, a new household level survey is carried out in Bushenyi, a mid-sized town in the South-West of Uganda, asking specifically about the multitude of water sources. On average Bushenyi households reported to use 1.9 water sources. The survey further showed that the actual presence of a source, does not always imply that it is used. Therefore it is no option to rely solely on models for water access monitoring. For this, household surveys remain necessary but should be extended with questions on the multiple sources that are used by households.

Identification of the Methanogenesis Inhibition Mechanism Using Comparative Analysis of Mathematical Models.

The application of cationic polymers to enhance membrane fluxes in anaerobic membrane bioreactors has been proposed by several authors. However, literature shows contradictory results on the influence of those chemicals on the biological activity. In this research, we studied the effect of a cationic polymer on the production of methane from acetate by acetoclastic methanogens. We assessed the effect of polymer concentration on the accumulated methane production (AMP) and the specific methanogenic activity (SMA) in batch tests. Batch tests results showed lower SMA values at higher concentrations of polymer and no effect on the final AMP. Different inhibition models were calibrated and compared to find the best fit and to hypothesize the prevailing inhibition mechanisms. The assessed inhibition models were: competitive (M1a), non-competitive (M2a), un-competitive (M3a), biocide-linear (M4a), and biocide-exponential (M5a). The parameters in the model related to the polymer characteristics were adjusted to fit the experimental data. M2a and M3a were the only models that fitted both experimental SMA and AMP. Although M1a and M4a adequately fitted the experimental SMA, M1a simulations slightly deviated from the experimental AMP, and M4a considerably underpredicted the AMP at concentrations of polymer above 0.23 gCOD L-1. M5a did not adequately fit either experimental SMA and AMP results. We compared models a (M1a to M5a), which consider the inhibition by the concentration of polymer in the bulk liquid, with models b (M1b to M5b) considering the inhibition being caused by the total concentration of polymer in the reactor. Results showed that the difference between a and b models' simulations were negligible for all kinetic models considered (M1, M2, M3, M4, and M5). Therefore, the models that better predicted the experimental data were the non-competitive (M2a and M2b) and un-competitive (M3a and M3b) inhibition models, which are biostatic inhibition models. Consequently, the decreased methanogenic activity caused by polymer additions is presumably a reversible process.