COVID-19 risk perception and public compliance with preventive measures: Evidence from a multi-wave household survey in the MENA region.

This study investigates the association between individuals' concern about contracting COVID-19 and their compliance with recommended preventive and mitigation measures, namely wearing face masks, maintaining social distancing and handwashing, in the context of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The empirical analysis is based on a panel dataset from the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey, which was carried out in Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Egypt. Applying a probit estimation technique, a positive and statistically significant association was found between the level of COVID-19 worries and individuals' compliance with the mitigation measures. Notably, the results revealed that this association followed a "first-up-then-down" trend, showing that compliance with the three mitigation measures rose as individuals' worries about contracting the virus increased, and then markedly decreased after they had been infected. Socio-demographic characteristics contributing to lower levels of compliance included being male, being over 60, having lower levels of education and having a lower household income. A cross-country analysis revealed remarkable differences between the five countries, with the strongest association between COVID-19 concerns and adherence to mitigation measures observed in Tunisia and Sudan, and the weakest association seen in Jordan and Morocco. Policy implications are outlined for effective risk communication and management during disease outbreaks and public health emergencies to encourage appropriate public health behaviours.

Is the technical efficiency green? The environmental efficiency of agricultural production in the MENA region.

There is widespread recognition of the global environmental impact of agricultural production on greenhouse gas emissions, but evidence is sparse regarding the impact in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In this study, we treat agricultural emissions as an undesirable output from agricultural production and apply the directional distance function to measure environmentally-adjusted technical efficiency, defined as environmental efficiency in agricultural production, in six countries in the MENA region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia) during the period 1980-2016. The results show that all six countries have clear scope to improve their environmental efficiency. Agricultural production is greener in Jordan and Israel, while environmental efficiency is currently lowest in Egypt and Morocco. Estimated relative shadow price of agricultural emissions is -1.002, implying that the 'cost' of removing agricultural emissions is almost equal to the value of producing one unit of good output. These findings suggest there is a trade-off between agriculture emissions and production, which should be considered in efforts to enhance the sustainability of agricultural production in the MENA region.

COVID-19 Impact on Household Food Security in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas of Hyderabad, India.

This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security and on coping-strategies in urban and peri-urban areas of the Hyderabad, India. Household survey data were collected before (October 2018) and during (January 2021) the onset of the pandemic. Results from logistic regression with the standarized Food Insecurity Expecience Scale (FIES) as dependent variable reveal that close to 40% of the households surveyed experienced a deterioration in food security status during the pandemic. In particular, we find that food security is closely related to the sector of employment in which the primary income- earning member of a household is engaged. To mitigate the impact of the pandemic on their food security, our sampled households adopted a variety of consumption-smoothing strategies including availing credit from both formal and informal sources, and liquidating their savings. Compared to households with severe or moderate level of food insecurity, households facing a mild level of food insecurity relied on stored food as a strategy to smoothen consumption in response to the income shock imparted by the pandemic. In addition, the results indicate that urban households, who adopted similar coping strategies as those adopted by peri-urban households, tended to be more food-insecure. Finally, the duration of unemployment experienced during the pandemic significantly influenced the status of household food security. These findings can inform the formulation of immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies conductive to mitigating the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and ameliorating the governance of urban food security during unexpected events and shocks.

A risk-benefit approach to the purchase and consumption of conventional vegetables in wet markets.

The purchase and consumption of conventional vegetables from wet markets in Vietnam are like two sides of a coin: perceived food safety risks and perceived benefits. Drawing on a sample of 463 Hanoi consumers, this study employed a risk-benefit approach to analyze the purchase intention and consumption frequency of conventional vegetables at traditional markets. A confirmatory factor analysis examined the links among risk perception, perceived utilitarian benefits, perceived hedonic benefits, and trust. Finally, generalized ordered and Poisson regressions were performed on these psychological constructs and their identified links. We found that perceived hedonic benefits, trust in wet market actors, and the presence of homegrown vegetables determined purchase intention and consumption frequency. The joint influence of perceived hedonic and utilitarian benefits on purchase intention implies that consumers considered both benefit dimensions when thinking of their future purchase of conventional vegetables. The significant interaction between perceived risk and perceived hedonic benefits on consumption frequency supports the risk-benefit approach. The effect of perceived hedonic benefits and income on purchase intention and consumption frequency are evidence of wet markets' social and cultural relevance.

COVID-19, Livestock Systems and Food Security in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review of an Emerging Literature.

In this paper, we carried out a systematic literature review to document the emerging scientific knowledge about COVID-19 impact on livestock systems and food security in developing countries to identify gaps and possible avenues for future research undertakings. Specifically, we systematically reviewed 68 peer-reviewed articles extracted based on rigorous selection criteria from Scopus, PubMed and ISI Web of Science databases and published between December 2019 and February 2021. Our results reveal that livestock supply chains presented an important 'intermediary' pathway through which the pandemic affected various dimensions of food security in developing countries. Although the research response has been rapid in terms of both quantity and temporal succession, we find a highly suggestive disjunction in studies analyzing the interconnections between COVID-19 pandemic, livestock systems and food security in developing countries. With respect to the livestock supply chain, the bulk of the reviewed evidence focuses on production and consumption, whereas considerably less focus is given to the pandemic's impact on intermediaries within livestock chains, including traders, intermediaries and processors. The analysis of livestock supply chain resilience revolves predominantly around the 'absorbance' and 'recovery' phases of resilience, whereas only a small subset of the literature investigates actions taken by supply chain actors to 'plan' or to 'adapt' livestock systems in order to reduce their vulnerability and enhance their overall resilience. Furthermore, food security has often been narrowly defined, with the majority of articles focusing on 'availability' and 'accessibility' to food due to the pandemic, and other dimensions of food security, including utilization, stability and sustainability, have been widely neglected. Based on our findings, we recommend future research to examine the dynamics of propagation of COVID-19 impact through livestock supply chains in order to develop more targeted interventions that enhance the capacity of developing countries to cope with this and future disruptions and mitigate their food insecurity outcomes. To this end, more holistic, integrated and resilience-based approaches are much recommended to recognize the complex nature of livestock systems in developing countries and to address the multifaceted and widespread effects of COVID-19 on food security channeled through livestock chains.

Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 Impacts on Small-Scale Commercial Broiler Production Systems in Egypt: Implications for Mitigation Strategies.

As in many other countries, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, together with subsequent government containment measures, posed significant challenges to small-scale broiler production systems in Egypt. Based on a survey of 205 specialist small-scale commercial broiler farms (SCBFs) consisting of both farm-based and household-based production systems, this study identifies the primary pathways through which COVID-19 has affected SCBFs and investigates the determinants of farm perception of these effects. A polychoric principal component analysis sorted the effects of the pandemic on the SCBFs surveyed into five categories, namely, input availability, production and operational costs, labor and human resources, consumer demand and sales, and farm finances. Next, five ordered logit models were constructed to examine the determinants of the SCBFs' perception of each category of these effects. Generally, the empirical results revealed that COVID-19 affected SCBFs heterogeneously based on their management and production systems and resource endowment. Female-led and household-based SCBFs perceived significantly greater COVID-19 effects. In contrast, individually owned farms and those with membership of poultry producer organizations and larger total asset values perceived fewer effects. In addition, SCBFs operating in both local and provincial markets were less likely to perceive negative effects from the pandemic on their broiler farming activities. Although the adoption of strict and immediate containment measures was essential for controlling the virus and protecting public health, our results indicate that policy responses to COVID-19 must consider the likely effects on small businesses such as SCBFs since disruptions to such socioeconomically important supply chains will intensify human suffering from the pandemic. Overall, our findings provide important implications for the formulation of effective strategies for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on small-scale broiler production systems in Egypt and enhancing their preparedness and resilience to future pandemics, natural hazard risks, and market shocks.

COVID-19: From health crises to food security anxiety and policy implications.

Like the rest of the world, African countries are reeling from the health, economic and social effects of COVID-19. The continent's governments have responded by imposing rigorous lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus. The various lockdown measures are undermining food security, because stay at home orders have among others, threatened food production for a continent that relies heavily on agriculture as the bedrock of the economy. This article draws on quantitative data collected by the GeoPoll, and, from these data, assesses the effect of concern about the local spread and economic impact of COVID-19 on food worries. Qualitative data comprising 12 countries south of the Sahara reveal that lockdowns have created anxiety over food security as a health, economic and human rights/well-being issue. By applying a probit model, we find that concern about the local spread of COVID-19 and economic impact of the virus increases the probability of food worries. Governments have responded with various efforts to support the neediest. By evaluating the various policies rolled out we advocate for a feminist economics approach that necessitates greater use of data analytics to predict the likely impacts of intended regulatory relief responses during the recovery process and post-COVID-19.

Risk perception and determinants in small- and medium-sized agri-food enterprises amidst the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Egypt.

The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted many activities along agri-food supply chains in developing countries and posed unprecedented challenges in particular to small and medium agri-food enterprises (SMEs). Drawing on a survey of 166 Egyptian agri-food SMEs, this study investigates differences in- and determinants of COVID-19 business risk perception among these enterprises. The empirical results showed that risk perception was highly asymmetric across geographical regions. Enterprises with longer cash flow coverage periods and higher values of total assets perceived significantly lower risk levels, as cash and assets functioned as a buffer against the impact of COVID-19. The findings of the study imply that the "just-in-time" approach and the absence of a proactive and preventative stance to risk management reduced the resilience of agri-food SMEs to the risks presented by the pandemic. Generally, enterprises that operate both in domestic and export markets perceived lower COVID-19 risks. Finally, the main export destination to which the surveyed enterprises export was a significant determinant of their risk perception. These findings could be useful to managers of agri-food businesses in terms of better understanding of risks and promotion of risk management practices. More so, they can help design effective policy interventions to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic on Egyptian agri-food SMEs and build up their resilience to future pandemics and shocks.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and cropland in the Nile Delta of Egypt using machine learning and satellite big data: implications for sustainable development.

The Nile Delta of Egypt is increasingly facing sustainability threats, due to a combination of nature- and human-induced changes in land cover and land use. In this paper, an analysis of big time series data from remotely sensed satellite images and the random forests classifier was undertaken to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics of urbanization and cropland in the Nile Delta between 2007 and 2017. Out of thirteen variables, five spectral indices were chosen to build 500 decision trees, with a resulting overall accuracy average of 91.9 ± 1.5%. The results revealed that the urban extent in the Nile Delta has increased, between 2007 and 2017, by 592.4 km2 (1.92%). Particularly, the results indicated that the years 2011 and 2012, which coincided the 2011 political uprising in Egypt, so-called the Arab Spring, were associated with significant land-use changes in the Nile Delta, both in rate and scale. As a result, the cropland area in the region decreased between 2010 and 2011 by 1.63% (502.21 km2). Moreover, the results showed that during the period 2012-2017, the mean annual urbanization rate in the region stood at 60 km2/year. In contrast, croplands decreased during the same period at an average annual rate of 2 km2/year. At the governorates' level, the results suggested that top agricultural producing governorates in the Nile Delta, such as Elmonoufia, Elkalubia, Elbouhyra, and Elghrbia, witnessed the highest rates of decrease in cropland areas during the period 2012-2017. Over the same period, urban areas increased the most in Elkalubia, Domiate, and Elmonoufia by 1.98%, 1.72%, and 1.34%, respectively. The f indings from this analysis are discussed along with their implications for sustainable land-use and urban planning policies.