Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments.

BACKGROUND: Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. METHODS: Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. RESULTS: Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. DISCUSSION: CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically.

[Tunisian health profile: present state and trends]. / Profil de sante de la Tunisie: etat actuel et tendances.

We will try to value the Tunisian Health Profile, its present state and its tendencies. Data have been collected by various sources, in particular international and national organism. The total fertility rate passed from 8 in 1966 to 2.01 in 1999. Besides a light ageing of the population is started (9% of the population are aged of more than 60 years in 1999). Death rates recorded a decrease, mainly of the infantile mortality (140%@1000 in 1966 against 24.7%@1000 in 1999) and the maternal mortality (68.9 per 100,000 living births in 1994 against 220 in 1980-1984). The life expectancy at birth passed from 51 years in 1966 to 72.4 years in 1999. According the morbidity we attend the receding of the majority of transmitted diseases. Resources injected in the system of cares also evolved: The medical density passed from 1 per 6700 inhabitants in 1966 to 1 per 1300 in 1999. Tunisia recorded the most elevated scores for the preventive activities in particular at the vaccinal coverage. The global evolution of the Tunisian health profile is marked by the epidemiological transition buy which pass the country currently. This phase is delicate because it's generating of a growth of care expenses. Decision-makers must be careful to consider advantage priorities and the profitability of the investments.