Conditional effects of local and global risk factors on the co-movements between economic growth and inflation: Insights into G8 economies.

World economies have experienced rise in uncertainties which has caused misalignments in the already existing nexus between inflation and economic growth. In addition to this, the presence of nonlinearities, asymmetry, heterogeneity, and structural shocks in time series data concerning substantial fluctuations that span systemic crises have rendered time and/or frequency connectedness worthy of investigation. Due to limited studies in this regard, the authors investigated the risk synchronisation among Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Geopolitical Risk with insights from G8 countries. To achieve the study's purpose, estimation techniques employed included the wavelet approaches (bi-wavelet and partial wavelet), and the wavelet multiple as well as the DCC-GARCH Connectedness approach as robustness. A sample period from January 1997 to August 2021 restricted by consistent data availability was considered. It was discovered that most G8 nations have a comparable relationship between their GDP and CPI. Additionally, significant co-movements between the G8 nations' GDP and CPI straddle crises. Furthermore, the relationship between Russia's GDP and CPI was significantly conditionally influenced by geopolitical risk factors. Own country economic policy uncertainty was the main source of shocks for nations like Canada, France, and the US, whereas, in Germany, Italy, and the UK, Global EPU was a crucial conduit for reducing the lead-lag relationship between GDP and CPI. Outcomes from this study imply that uncertainties pose a more persistent and dynamic challenge to the G8 countries' efforts to achieve sustained economic growth, lessen the negative effects of inflation and deflation, and improve national and regional economic integration.

Mobility limitations and emotional dysfunction in old age: The moderating effects of physical activity and social ties.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to examine the association between mobility limitations and emotional dysfunction among older Ghanaians and evaluate the buffering effect of physical activity (PA) and social ties in this association. METHODS: The analysis included 1201 adults aged ≥50 from the 2016-17 Aging, Health, Psychological Well-being, and Health-seeking Behavior study. The Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 (MOS SF-36) assessed mobility limitations and emotional dysfunction. We measured PA using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short Form (IPAQ-SF). Hierarchical OLS regressions were performed to evaluate the hypothesized direct and interactive relationships. RESULTS: The mean age of the sample was 66.2 (SD = 11.9), and 63.3% were women. After full adjustment for potential confounders, OLS regressions found that mobility limitations increased the risk of emotional dysfunction (ß = 0.113, p = 0.004). Moreover, social ties (ß = -0.157, p < 0.001) and PA (ß = -0.096, p < 0.001) were independently and negatively associated with emotional dysfunction. We finally found a significant effect modification of the association of mobility limitations with emotional dysfunction by PA (ß = -0.040, p < 0.002) and social ties (ß = -0.013, p = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Mobility-enhancing strategies such as engagement in positive behavioral choices, focusing on regular PA, and maintaining resourceful interpersonal social networks can mitigate the impact of mobility limitations on emotional dysfunction in later life.

Emotional and physical-related experiences as potential mechanisms linking physical activity and happiness: Evidence from the Ghana Aging, Health, Psychological Well-being, and Health-seeking Behavior Study.

This study examines the association between physical inactivity (PI) and happiness among Ghanaian older adults and whether emotional and physical-related experiences (EPE) mediate the association. Data from the Aging, Health, Psychological Well-being and Health-seeking Behavior Study (AgeHeaPsyWel-HeaSeeB) conducted in 2016-2018 among 1201 older Ghanaians were analyzed. Happiness was assessed with the self-rated and cross-culturally validated item on a 5-point scale. PI was evaluated with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Hierarchical linear regressions and mediation analyses were performed to estimate the hypothesized associations. Results showed that PI was significantly associated with lower levels of happiness (ß = -0.053, p < .001) net of potential confounders. The association of PI with happiness was attenuated and fully mediated by pain, sleep problems, loneliness, anxiety, and boredom. Moreover, in terms of the cross-level interaction effects, PI moderated the happiness-pain (ß = -0.029, p < .005), happiness-social isolation (ß = -0.024, p < .05), and happiness-boredom (ß = -0.023, p < .005) associations. Our data suggest that EPE may explain why PI decreases happiness in old age. Findings provide valuable insight into the interventions and decisions to improve subjective well-being and quality of life in old age.

A two-mediator serial mediation chain of the association between social isolation and impaired sleep in old age.

Poor sleep is a long-term public health issue that has become increasingly prevalent among socially isolated older adults. However, research on the mechanisms explaining the link between social isolation and impaired sleep (IS) remains limited, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study explored the serial mediating effects of loneliness and mental distress on the association of social isolation with IS among Ghanaian older adults. We analyzed data from 1201 adults aged ≥ 50 from Ghana's AgeHeaPsyWel-HeaSeeB study (mean age = 66.14, SD = 11.85, age range = 50-111; women = 63.28%). Measures included the UCLA 3-item Loneliness Scale, modified Berkman-Syme Social Network Index, Sleep Quality Scale, and Mental Distress Questionnaire. We used bootstrapping techniques from Hayes' PROCESS macro program to estimate the hypothesized serial mediation. Social isolation was significantly associated with IS (ß = 0.242, p < 0.001). Crucially, social isolation indirectly predicted IS via three significant mediating pathways. Loneliness accounted for 17.6% (ß = 0.054, CI = 0.096, 0.016), mental distress accounted for 6.5% (ß = 0.020, 95% CI = 0.004, 0.040), and loneliness and mental distress accounted for 32.2% (ß = 0.099, 95% CI = 0.065, 0.138) of the overall effect. The total mediating effect was 56.4%. These findings suggest that the social isolation-sleep link is respectively and serially explained by loneliness and mental distress. Social integrative interventions for sleep quality in old age should target mental and emotional well-being.

Associations of financial inclusion with physical activity participation in later life.

Background: Physical activity (PA) is a vital modifiable psychosocial intervention for promoting healthy longevity but problematically decreases with age. Innovative community-based strategies are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to improve PA but prior research has seldom considered the interactive effect of financial inclusion, social networks, and sex differences on PA. In this study, we examine the role of sex differences and resourceful social networks in relation to the association of financial inclusion with PA among older Ghanaian people. Methods: The sample included 1201 adults aged ≥50 years who participated in the 2016-17 AgeHeaPsyWel-HeaSeeB study. We assessed financial inclusion with an eight-item Financial Instrument Questionnaire Scale and PA with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short Form (IPAQ-SF). Linear regressions and moderation analysis were used to test the hypothesized associations. Results: The mean financial inclusion and PA scores were 1.9(±1.8) and 9.0(±4.4) respectively. After full adjustment for potential confounders, a unit increase in financial inclusion was significantly and positively associated with increases in PA participation (ß = .308, p < .005) and also notable among those aged ≥65 years (ß = .413, p = .023). Crucially, the positive association between financial inclusion and PA was significantly modified by social networks (ß = .151, p < .001). However, the role of sex in this association was not robust. Conclusions: Findings emphasize the effect of financial inclusion on PA in old age, particularly when considering social networks. Programs to improve financial inclusion and social integration may benefit the acceptance and participation of PA among older adults.

Financial sector and economic growth amid external uncertainty shocks: Insights into emerging economies.

The study aims to shed new lights on the lead-lag relationships between the financial sector (RFSI) and economic growth (GDP) in the midst of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shocks for BRICS economies. Hence, the bivariate, partial, and wavelet multiple correlations techniques are employed. From the bivariate analysis, we document positive bi-directional causality between the RFSI and economic growth over the sample period. The partial wavelet reveals that GEPU shocks distort the significance and directional comovements between the RFSI and GDP. Moreover, the outcome from the wavelet multiple cross correlations (WMCC) indicates that the RFSI is a first mover at most time scales for the BRICS economies. This is followed by GEPU which either leads or lags for most scales, especially for South Africa. The impact of GEPU on RFSI and GDP is worst for South Africa in about four cases in the medium-, and long-terms. This signifies that South Africa's financial markets and economic growth are vulnerable to GEPU. However, the impetus for GEPU to drive the comovements between the financial sector and economic activity was less pronounced in the pre-COVID analysis conducted with the WMCC. The study supports both the supply-leading and demand-following hypotheses. Our findings also underscore the need for policymakers, investors and academics alike to incessantly observe the dynamics between finance and growth across time and periodicity while considering adverse shocks from global economic policy uncertainty in tandem.

Time-frequency domain analysis of investor fear and expectations in stock markets of BRIC economies.

The purpose of this study is to provide insight into the lead-lag relationships between the BRIC stock index and its constituents. In addition, we assess the comovements between the US volatility index (VIX) as a measure of investor uncertainty and fear and stock returns of BRIC economies. Therefore, the bi-wavelet and wavelet multiple correlations approaches are utilised. Findings from the bi-wavelet technique indicate that there are high interdependencies between the BRIC index and its constituents throughout the time-frequency domain. In addition, comovements between the BRIC index and its constituents was positive and significant. Notwithstanding, we find the BRIC index to be the first variable to respond to shocks when all the study variables were considered in the wavelet multiple cross-correlations. Similarly, the stock market of Brazil is the next to respond to shocks. On the other hand, the stock market of Russia lags in the long-term when the BRIC index was excluded from the wavelet multiple cross-correlations. We also find a uni-directional causality between the VIX and the BRIC stocks in the medium-, and long-terms. Specifically, the US VIX significantly drives the BRIC stocks and considered to be negative. Findings from the study imply that global investors can select any of the stock markets in BRIC to allocate their investments due to their strong interdependencies which may facilitate trade and investments. However, portfolio diversification, safe haven or hedge benefits within this region may be minimal due to their high integration with the BRIC index which demonstrates positive significant comovements. The findings present relevant inferences for portfolio diversification, policy decisions, and risk management schemes. It is recommended that investors hedge against volatilities in the BRIC stock markets using the US VIX.

Modelling the heterogeneous relationship between the crude oil implied volatility index and African stocks in the coronavirus pandemic.

This paper revisited the crude oil - stock market nexus to examine how the oil implied volatility index (a forward-looking and more accurate measure for uncertainty in oil prices) affects stock returns in major Africa's oil-importing (South Africa, Kenya, Mauritius, and Botswana) and oil-exporting (Nigeria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco) countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantile regression is employed to examine the heterogeneous relationship at different distributions of stock returns. The study documents evidence to support a negative relationship between the oil implied volatility shocks and stock returns in the selected stock markets, especially in downturns. Findings from this study also reveal that the oil implied volatility shocks can asymmetrically influence Africa's stocks. Specifically, our empirical evidence reveals that positive shocks in the oil implied volatility index play a key role in most of Africa's stock markets in market downturns while negative shocks play a moderate role during benign market conditions in some of Africa's stock markets during the pandemic. More importantly, our findings divulge that investors can find an invaluable shelter with a portfolio of the selected African stocks and oil market securities in the time of the pandemic. The policy implications are further discussed.

Financial inclusion and physical health functioning among aging adults in the sub-Saharan African context: Exploring social networks and gender roles.

BACKGROUND: It remains poorly understood how financial inclusion influences physical health functioning in later life in sub-Saharan African context and whether the association differs by gender and social relationships. We aim 1) to examine the associations of financial inclusion with functional impairment during older age in Ghana; and 2) to evaluate whether gender and social networks modify this association. METHODS: The cross-sectional analyses are based on a sample (N = 1,201) of study participants aged 50 years and over (M = 66.5 years, SD = 11.9, 63.3% female) deriving from the 2016-2017 AgeHeaPsyWel-HeaSeeB Study. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analyses with interactions were performed to estimate the link between financial inclusion and functional health and how the association is modified by gender and older age social networks. RESULTS: The mean financial inclusion score was 1.66 (SD = 1.74) in women and 2.33 (SD = 1.82) in men whilst mean activities of daily living (ADL) score was 13.03 (SD = 4.99) and 14.85 (SD = 5.06) in women and men respectively. We found that financial inclusion was associated with decreases in ADL (total sample: ß = -.548, p < .001; women: ß = -.582, p < .001; men: ß = -1.082 p < .001) and instrumental ADL (IADL) (total sample: ß = -.359, p = .034; women: ß = -.445, p = .026 but not in men). Social networks significantly moderated the association of financial inclusion with ADL such that the financially included who were embedded in a stronger constellation of social networks were 6% less likely to report ADL impairment compared to those with weaker social networks (ß = -.062, p = .025). CONCLUSIONS: The study provides empirical evidence for a better understanding of the association between financial inclusion and physical health functioning in the context of later life social networks. Interventions for functional health through financial inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa should include improving interpersonal and social networks for older adult and also through gender lenses.

How Far Is Inclusivity of Financial Services Associated With Food Insecurity in Later Life? Implications for Health Policy and Sustainable Development Goals.

This study investigates how financial services inclusion (FSI) may affect food insecurity among older Ghanaians and seeks to identify any modifying roles of age and gender in the associations. Data were analyzed for 1,200 adults aged 50+ years. Generalized linear models with a logit link function examined associations and interaction terms. Average FSI score was 1.9 (SD = 1.8), and the prevalence of hunger and breakfast skipping were 35.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: [32.9%, 38.4%]) and 28.8% (95% CI: [26.3%, 31.5%]) respectively. After full adjustment for potential confounders, FSI was associated with 0.459 (95% CI: [0.334, 0.629]) and 0.599 (95% CI: [0.434, 0.827]) times lower odds for hunger and breakfast skipping respectively. However, the corresponding interactions were statistically insignificant. The findings indicate the potentially important role of FSI in reducing food insecurity in later life. Development of policies to empower older people economically through increased financial literacy and easier access to financial services may help actualize the Sustainable Development Goal 2.

Does financial inclusion predict a lower risk of loneliness in later life? Evidence from the AgeHeaPsyWel-HeaSeeB study 2016-2017.

OBJECTIVE: For many older people, loneliness represents a common source of impaired quality of life particularly in the context of poor access to financial services. This article examines the association between financial inclusion and loneliness in older adults and explores the moderating effects of gender and physical activity in this association. METHODS: One thousand two-hundred participants completed the Short Form Revised UCLA Loneliness Scale assessing loneliness during 2016-2017 Aging, Health, Psychological Well-being and Health-seeking Behavior (AgeHeaPsyWel-HeaSeeB) Study. Financial inclusion was assessed using an 8-item Financial Instrument Scale. RESULTS: Multiple ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions showed that increases in financial inclusion were associated with decreases in loneliness in the total sample (ß = -0.679, p < 0.001) and in women (ß = -0.787, p < 0.001) but not in men (ß = -0.594, p = 0.084). The negative effect of financial inclusion on loneliness was pronounced among those who engaged in physical activity (ß = -0.646, p < 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: Findings underscore the importance of financial inclusion for loneliness in later life particularly among older women and those who engage in physical activity. Encouraging and strengthening financial inclusion may crucially improve psychological health and emotional well-being among aging adults.

Financial Inclusion, Health-Seeking Behavior, and Health Outcomes Among Older Adults in Ghana.

PURPOSE: This study examines the associations between financial inclusion, health-seeking behavior, and health-related outcomes in older persons in Ghana. METHOD: Employing data from a 2016/2017 Aging, Health, Psychological Well-Being and Health-Seeking Behavior Study (N = 1,200; mean age = 66.2 years [standard deviation = 11.9], we estimated regression models of self-rated health (SRH), psychological distress (PD), and health-care use (HCU) on a variable representing compositional characteristics of financial inclusion. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic and generalized Poisson models showed that financial inclusion is positively associated with SRH (ß = .104, standard error [SE] = .033, p < .001) but inversely related to both PD (ß = .038, SE = .032, p < .005) and HCU (ß = -.006, SE = .009, p < .05) independent of other factors. However, after adjusting for socioeconomic and health-related factors, the associations were tempered and the effect of SRH decreased by 0.094 and PD increased by 0.065 points but HCU became statistically insignificant (ß = -.020, SE = .0114, p > .05). CONCLUSIONS: Financial services inclusion profoundly appears to buffer against and retard health-related challenges in later life. Social and health policies targeted at improving the health outcomes of older people should include and build on the growing recognition of the importance of inclusive financial services and strategies.