Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply

BackgroundThe worldwide inequitable access to vaccination claims for a re-assessment of policies that could minimize the COVID-19 burden in low-income countries. An illustrative example is what occurred in Ethiopia, where nine months after the launch of the national vaccination program in March 2021, only 3% of the population received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. In the meantime, a new wave of cases caused by the emergence of Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was observed between July and November 2021. MethodsWe used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to estimate the level of immunity accrued before the launch of vaccination in the Southwest Shewa Zone (SWSZ) and to evaluate the impact of alternative age priority vaccination targets in a context of limited vaccine supply. The model was informed with available epidemiological evidence and detailed contact data collected across different socio-demographic settings. ResultsWe found that, during the first year of the pandemic, 46.1-58.7% of SARS-CoV-2 infections and 24.9-48% of critical cases occurred in SWSZ were likely associated with infectors under 30 years of age. During the Delta wave, the contribution of this age group in causing critical cases was estimated to increase to 66.7-70.6%. However, our findings suggest that, when considering the vaccine product available at the time (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19; 65% efficacy against infection after 2 doses), prioritizing the elderly for vaccination remained the best strategy to minimize the disease burden caused by Delta, irrespectively to the number of available doses. Vaccination of all individuals aged 50{square}years or older would have averted 40 (95%CI: 18-60), 90 (95%CI: 61-111), and 62 (95%CI: 21-108) critical cases per 100,000 residents in urban, rural, and remote areas, respectively. Vaccination of all individuals aged 30{square}years or more would have averted an average of 86-152 critical cases per 100,000 individuals, depending on the setting considered. ConclusionsDespite infections among children and young adults likely caused 70% of critical cases during the Delta wave in SWSZ, most vulnerable ages should remain a key priority target for vaccination against COVID-19.

Demography, social contact patterns and the COVID-19 burden in different settings of Ethiopia: a modeling study

BackgroundCOVID-19 spread may have a dramatic impact in countries with vulnerable economies and limited availability of, and access to, healthcare resources and infrastructures. However, in sub-Saharan Africa a low prevalence and mortality have been observed so far. MethodsWe collected data on individuals social contacts in Ethiopia across geographical contexts characterized by heterogeneous population density, work and travel opportunities, and access to primary care. We assessed how socio-demographic factors and observed mixing patterns can influence the COVID-19 disease burden, by simulating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in remote settlements, rural villages, and urban neighborhoods, under the current school closure mandate. ResultsFrom national surveillance data, we estimated a net reproduction number of 1.62 (95%CI 1.55-1.70). We found that, at the end of an epidemic mitigated by school closure alone, 10-15% of the overall population would have been symptomatic and 0.3-0.4% of the population would require mechanical ventilation and/or possibly result in a fatal outcome. Higher infection attack rates are expected in more urbanized areas, but the highest incidence of critical disease is expected in remote subsistence farming settlements. ConclusionsThe relatively low burden of COVID-19 in Ethiopia can be explained by the estimated mixing patterns, underlying demography and the enacted school closures. Socio-demographic factors can also determine marked heterogeneities across different geographical contexts within the same country. Our findings can contribute to understand why sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a relatively lower attack rate of severe cases compared to high income countries.

Cost-effectiveness of an ambulance-based referral system for emergency obstetrical and neonatal care in rural Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of an ambulance-based referral system an dedicated to emergency obstetrics and neonatal care (EmONC) in remote sub-Saharan settings. METHODS: In this prospective study performed in Oromiya Region (Ethiopia), all obstetrical cases referred to the hospital with the ambulance were consecutively evaluated during a three-months period. The health professionals who managed the referred cases were requested to identify those that could be considered as undoubtedly effective. Pre and post-referral costs included those required to run the ambulance service and the additional costs necessary for the assistance in the hospital. Local life expectancy tables were used to calculate the number of year saved. RESULTS: A total of 111 ambulance referrals were recorded. The ambulance was undoubtedly effective for 9 women and 4 newborns, corresponding to 336 years saved. The total cost of the intervention was 8299 US dollars. The cost per year life saved was 24.7 US dollars which is below the benchmarks of 150 and 30 US dollars that define attractive and very attractive interventions. Sensitivity analyses on the rate of effective referrals, on the costs of the ambulance and on the discount rate confirmed the robustness of the result. CONCLUSIONS: An ambulance-based referral system for EmONC in remote sub-Saharan areas appears highly cost-effective.

Gender Inequalities in Remote Settings: Analysis of 105,025 Medical Records of a Rural Hospital in Ethiopia (2005-2015).

Gender inequalities in Sub-Saharan Africa are deemed relevant but data to support this view are scanty. Retrospective analysis of a large dataset of 105,025 patients admitted to an Ethiopian rural private, non-for-profit hospital over a 11 years period (2005-2015). Since 2001, the hospital and the local community are involved in a long-term, comprehensive and externally-supported health care intervention. The total number of admissions was higher for females (61.9% of the total) mainly because of the high frequency of admissions for obstetrics conditions. The total male-to-female ratio (M:F) was 0.6. Except for malaria, men had more admissions for the other leading causes, with the highest M:F being found for injuries (2.7) and musculoskeletal diseases (1.7). Overall, excluding admissions for pregnancy-related issues, the M:F was 1.4. The frequency of admissions changed with age and gender. Female admissions prevailed in the reproductive age period (from 15 to 44 years of age) while males admissions prevailed in the younger and older age groups. The case fatality rate was higher for men (M:F = 2.0). The total M:F and the M:F excluding pregnancy-related admissions did not change during the study period. Gender inequalities do exist in rural remote setting but tend to affect women differently during their lifespan. Even if gender inequalities generally favor males, the substantial proportion of admissions for pregnancy-related situations is encouraging.