Integration of tools and social science into food safety risk assessments.

The European Food Risk Assessment (EU-FORA) Fellowship work programme 'Integration of tools and social science into food safety risk assessments' was proposed and delivered by the Food Standards Agency (FSA), UK. The Food Standards Agency is a non-ministerial government department of the UK, responsible for protecting public health in relation to food in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The programme was tailored to several different activities to provide an overview of the different tools that can be employed in food safety risk assessment also accounting for the interaction between risk assessment and social science. In order to structure the proposed work, the programme was split into four modules to run over the 12-month period of 'learning-by-doing'. In the first module, the fellow was introduced to Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA), in the second to Chemical Risk Assessment (CRA), in the third to Social Science, and finally, in the fourth to the Risk Prioritization Tools and Networks in UK - National Dietary Data (NDNS), collection methodology, coding and analysis. The fellow was assigned to the Risk Assessment Unit within the Science, Evidence and Research Department which brings together specialist expertise from Microbiological, Chemical Risk Assessment, and Analytics Units, under one department together with additional staff from the food allergy and radiological risk assessment fields. The aim was to be fully integrated in the organisation's work gaining first-hand experience, increase knowledge of scientific aspects relevant to food safety risk assessment, and more importantly, to enhance network connection activities in the EU food risk assessment environment.

A qualitative risk assessment of cleansing and disinfection requirements after an avian influenza outbreak in commercial poultry.

1. During an avian influenza (AI) outbreak in the United Kingdom, the joint aim of the poultry industry and the Government is to eliminate and prevent the spread of infection, through control measures based on the current European Union (EU) Council Directive (2005/94/EC). An essential part of these measures is the cleansing and disinfection (C&D) of infected premises.2. This risk assessment assessed the differences in re-infection in a repopulated flock if the EU Directive is interpreted to permit secondary C&D to be undertaken either with or without dismantling complex equipment. The assessment estimated the probability of virus survival on different types of equipment in a depopulated contaminated poultry house before and after preliminary and secondary C&D procedures. A risk matrix spreadsheet tool was used to carry out the assessment and concluded that, provided secondary C&D is carried out with due diligence (i.e. carried out to a defined code of practice as agreed by both industry and policymakers), the risk of re-infection from equipment is negligible, both with and without dismantling complex equipment in all farm types considered.3. By considering the equipment types individually, the assessment identified those areas of the house which may still contain viable virus post-preliminary C&D and on which attention should be focussed during secondary C&D. The generic risk pathway and matrix spreadsheet tool have the potential to be used for other pathogens and species, given appropriate data.

Learning to balance on a slackline: Development of coordinated multi-joint synergies.

Previous research has investigated synergies involved in locomotion and balance reactions; however, there is limited insight into the emergence of skilled balance control with practice of challenging tasks. We explored motor learning of tandem and single leg stance on an unstable surface-a slackline. Balance was tested in 10 naïve healthy adults at four time points: baseline, after one slackline practice session, after 1 week of practice, and 1 week following the final practice session. We recorded kinematics of the upper and lower arms bilaterally, trunk, and thigh and foot unilaterally while participants balanced in tandem and single leg stance on a slackline and narrow rigid beam (transfer task). When participants first attempted to stand on the slackline, they exhibited fast and frequent movements across all joints with actions along the frontal plane (particularly the hip) and fell after a short period (~3 seconds). Performance improved rapidly (fewer falls), and this was accompanied by dampened trunk and foot oscillations and the development of coordinated movement patterns with a progressive emphasis on more distal upper body segments. Continuous relative phase angles between joint pairs began to cluster around either 0° (indicating in-phase movement) or 180° (indicating anti-phase movement). Participants also began to demonstrate coordinated upper body synergies and performance improvements (fewer falls) on the transfer task, while a control group (n = 10) did not exhibit similar synergies or performance improvements. Our findings describe the emergence of coordinated movement synergies involving the upper body as healthy adults learn a challenging balance task.

Using multi-criteria risk ranking methodology to select case studies for a generic risk assessment framework for exotic disease incursion and spread through Europe.

We present a novel approach of using the multi-criteria pathogen prioritisation methodology as a basis for selecting the most appropriate case studies for a generic risk assessment framework. The approach uses selective criteria to rank exotic animal health pathogens according to the likelihood of introduction and the impact of an outbreak if it occurred in the European Union (EU). Pathogens were evaluated based on their impact on production at the EU level and international trade. A subsequent analysis included criteria of relevance to quantitative risk assessment case study selection, such as the availability of data for parameterisation, the need for further research and the desire for the case studies to cover different routes of transmission. The framework demonstrated is flexible with the ability to adjust both the criteria and their weightings to the user's requirements. A web based tool has been developed using the RStudio shiny apps software, to facilitate this.

Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment.

The EUFORA fellowship programme 'Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment' was proposed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), a British governmental institution responsible for safeguarding animal and plant health in the UK. The working programme, which was organised into four different modules, covered a wide range of aspects related to risk assessment including identification of emerging risks, risk prioritisation methods, scanning surveillance, food production exposure assessment and import risk assessment of animal and human infectious diseases. Over the course of the year, the Fellow had the opportunity to work for international projects with experts in these disciplines. This allowed for significant opportunities to 'learn-by-doing' the methods and the techniques that are employed to assess animal health and food safety risks. Moreover, he consolidated his knowledge by attending several training courses and academic lessons, submitting scientific papers to peer-reviewed journals and conferences, giving presentations and using modelling software.

Is there a decline in bovine spongiform encephalopathy cases born after reinforced feed bans? A modelling study in EU member states.

Occasional cases of classical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) still continue to occur within the European Union (EU) for animals born after reinforced feed bans (BARBs), which should in theory have eliminated all risk of infection. The study aimed to determine (i) whether a common rate of decline of BSE infection was evident across EU member states, i.e. to determine whether control measures have been equally effective in all member states, (ii) whether there was any evidence of spontaneous occurrence of BSE in the data and (iii) the expected date for the last BSE case in UK. It was found that there was no significant difference in the rate of decline of BSE prevalence between member states, with a common rate of decline of 33·9% per annum (95% CI 30·9-37%) in successive annual birth cohorts. Trend analysis indicated an ultimate decline to 0 prevalence, suggesting that spontaneous occurrence does not explain the majority of cases. Projecting forward the trends from the back-calculation model indicated that there was approximately a 50% probability of further cases in the UK, and should the current rate of decline continue, there remains the possibility of further occasional cases up until 2026.

Assessing the impact of a cattle risk-based trading scheme on the movement of bovine tuberculosis infected animals in England and Wales.

The adoption of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) risk-based trading (RBT) schemes has the potential to reduce the risk of bTB spread. However, any scheme will have cost implications that need to be balanced against its likely success in reducing bTB. This paper describes the first stochastic quantitative model assessing the impact of the implementation of a cattle risk-based trading scheme to inform policy makers and contribute to cost-benefit analyses. A risk assessment for England and Wales was developed to estimate the number of infected cattle traded using historic movement data recorded between July 2010 and June 2011. Three scenarios were implemented: cattle traded with no RBT scheme in place, voluntary provision of the score and a compulsory, statutory scheme applying a bTB risk score to each farm. For each scenario, changes in trade were estimated due to provision of the risk score to potential purchasers. An estimated mean of 3981 bTB infected animals were sold to purchasers with no RBT scheme in place in one year, with 90% confidence the true value was between 2775 and 5288. This result is dependent on the estimated between herd prevalence used in the risk assessment which is uncertain. With the voluntary provision of the risk score by farmers, on average, 17% of movements was affected (purchaser did not wish to buy once the risk score was available), with a reduction of 23% in infected animals being purchased initially. The compulsory provision of the risk score in a statutory scheme resulted in an estimated mean change to 26% of movements, with a reduction of 37% in infected animals being purchased initially, increasing to a 53% reduction in infected movements from higher risk sellers (score 4 and 5). The estimated mean reduction in infected animals being purchased could be improved to 45% given a 10% reduction in risky purchase behaviour by farmers which may be achieved through education programmes, or to an estimated mean of 49% if a rule was implemented preventing farmers from the purchase of animals of higher risk than their own herd. Given voluntary trials currently taking place of a trading scheme, recommendations for future work include the monitoring of initial uptake and changes in the purchase patterns of farmers. Such data could be used to update the risk assessment to reduce uncertainty associated with model estimates.

Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date.

A quantitative risk assessment for the safety of carcase storage systems for scrapie infected farms.

AIMS: To determine the risk associated with the use of carcase storage vessels on a scrapie infected farm. METHODS AND RESULTS: A stochastic quantitative risk assessment was developed to determine the rate of accumulation and fate of scrapie in a novel low-input storage system. For an example farm infected with classical scrapie, a mean of 10(3·6) Ovine Oral ID50 s was estimated to accumulate annually. Research indicates that the degradation of any prions present may range from insignificant to a magnitude of one or two logs over several months of storage. CONCLUSIONS: For infected farms, the likely partitioning of remaining prion into the sludge phase would necessitate the safe operation and removal of resulting materials from these systems. If complete mixing could be assumed, on average, the concentrations of infectivity are estimated to be slightly lower than that measured in placenta from infected sheep at lambing. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This is the first quantitative assessment of the scrapie risk associated with fallen stock on farm and provides guidance to policy makers on the safety of one type of storage system and the relative risk when compared to other materials present on an infected farm.

The risk of introducing scrapie from restocking goats in Great Britain.

The goat population in Great Britain (GB), which is mostly oriented to milk production, is small compared to that in other European Union (EU) countries and contributes a very small fraction of the total livestock production. The recent confirmation and cull of scrapie-affected goat herds has raised the concern that the risk of re-introducing scrapie by mass restocking after the cull of a scrapie-affected herd, may not have been fully considered at the time of implementing statutory eradication measures. A conditional probability model has been developed to estimate the probability of introducing at least one animal infected with classical scrapie into a British goat herd under two scenarios: restocking over one year under normal operating conditions (Scenario 1); and restocking post a whole herd cull as part of the compulsory eradication measures (Scenario 2). Several of the parameters were based on expert opinion, as there is a paucity of data regarding goat industry norms for all sectors. Considering all herds, of which 99% have less than 100 animals, the probability of introduction is approximately 2 times higher for Scenario (2) than for Scenario (1). The risk of subsequently re-introducing the disease through the introduction of replacement stock is not insignificant, although it can be considered very low for the vast majority of herds (>99%). In the case of very large herds (>1000 heads), mass restocking would almost certainly reintroduce the disease since it would require purchases from a very large number of herds.

Characterizing the behavior and reproductive biology of zoo-housed Sichuan takin (Budorcas taxicolor tibetana) using non-invasive techniques.

The Sichuan takin (takin; Budorcas taxicolor tibetana) is distributed in the Gansu and Sichuan providences of southern China and along eastern Tibet. Because of their ecology, few data on takin reproductive biology exist, with the exception of its mating season in the Sichuan province, which occurs from July through August. Therefore, the objectives were to: 1) characterize reproductive hormones in zoo-housed male and female takin, including pregnancy in the female, using non-invasive fecal steroid hormonal monitoring; 2) characterize behaviors of zoo-housed takin, emphasizing reproductive behaviors and activity budget; and 3) assess the influence of season on births in North America and reproductive hormonal and behavioral activity. Fecal samples were collected 3 to 5 times per week from two adult males and three adult females. Extracted hormones were analyzed using an enzyme immunoassay for progestagen and androgen concentrations. Behavioral observations were collected for 2 yrs using an ethogram. In this study, season affected reproduction, specifically birth occurrences, reproductive cyclicity in females and androgen production in males. The duration of the estrous cycle was approximately 35 d and cycles occurred June through December. Androgen concentrations peaked in May through August. Season did not influence behavior; however, age and sex may affect some behaviors, including activity level, foraging and drinking, social affiliative behavior, and visibility from the visitor's viewpoint. In conclusion, fecal hormonal and behavioral analyses can provide information for management and conservation of this herd species.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: is it time to relax BSE-related measures in the context of international trade?

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has presented serious challenges to both the World Organisation for Animal Health and national governments, in defining and implementing appropriate national control measures, and in agreeing trade rules that permit safe trade in cattle and bovine products. Precautionary trade rules were initially necessary, based upon the science of sheep scrapie, but research into BSE later enabled BSE-specific trade rules to be developed. As a result, current rules on trade are underpinned by a sound body of knowledge on BSE. Declining epidemics in most affected countries confirm the appropriateness of current precautions. Nevertheless, risk is primarily dependent on the prevalence of infection with BSE. In the face of low prevalence scenarios, certain precautionary measures in the Terrestrial Animal Health Code may now be considered excessive. A thorough review is therefore deemed appropriate.

Estimating the impact on the food chain of changing bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) control measures: the BSE control model.

The decline in the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Great Britain (GB) demands a review of control strategies to ensure that they remain proportionate. Amongst controls that are subject to review are those intended to minimise the risk of BSE exposure of consumers through food. Such risk mitigation steps are costly, and the relative impact of each in terms of human exposure to BSE infectivity is not known. This risk assessment, termed the BSE Control Model, aims to estimate by use of stochastic simulation the impact of testing of cattle at slaughter and the removal of Specified Risk Materials (SRM) on potential BSE infectivity consumed. This paper describes the use of the model to investigate the effect of different risk management methods that have been or could be implemented between 2005 and 2010. Our results suggest that the amount of infectivity consumed in 2005 with the Over Thirty Month (OTM) rule in place was a mean of 0.03 bovine oral ID(50) (BO ID(50)). This is an extremely low amount, particularly considering that it would be spread over, on average, 236 infected carcases that would be further sub-divided into portions for human consumption. The highest contributor to the total amount of infectivity consumed per year is spinal contamination at carcase splitting (35%). In 2006 the OTM scheme was discontinued and head meat was again permitted into the food chain. These changes resulted in an increase in the amount of infectivity consumed, rising to an estimated 28 BO ID(50) in 2006, and 19 BO ID(50) in 2007. In 2008 the age at removal of vertebral column was raised from 24 to 30 months, and an estimated 24 BO ID(50) of infectivity was consumed. At the beginning of 2009 the age at testing of cattle was raised to 48 months for healthy slaughter, emergency slaughter and fallen stock. Under these conditions, an estimated mean of 24 BO ID(50) will be consumed in 2009, decreasing to 20 BO ID(50) in 2010. Even though presented in terms of bovine rather than human oral ID(50), such estimates represent an extremely low exposure of the British population. Considerable uncertainty would surround any attempt to try to convert such exposure into estimates of new cases of vCJD, but the most recent estimates of the size of the species barrier between cattle and humans (4000, EFSA, 2006) suggest that there would be few, if any, new cases of vCJD arising from such exposure levels.

Does increased postural threat lead to more conscious control of posture?

Although it is well established that postural threat modifies postural control, little is known regarding the underlying mechanism(s) responsible for these changes. It is possible that changes in postural control under conditions of elevated postural threat result from a shift to a more conscious control of posture. The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of elevated postural threat on conscious control of posture and to determine the relationship between conscious control and postural control measures. Forty-eight healthy young adults stood on a force plate at two different surface heights: ground level (LOW) and 3.2-m above ground level (HIGH). Centre of pressure measures calculated in the anterior-posterior (AP) direction were mean position (AP-MP), root mean square (AP-RMS) and mean power frequency (AP-MPF). A modified state-specific version of the Movement Specific Reinvestment Scale was used to measure conscious motor processing (CMP) and movement self-consciousness (MSC). Balance confidence, fear of falling, perceived stability, and perceived and actual anxiety indicators were also collected. A significant effect of postural threat was found for movement reinvestment as participants reported more conscious control and a greater concern about their posture at the HIGH height. Significant correlations between CMP and MSC with AP-MP were observed as participants who consciously controlled and were more concerned for their posture leaned further away from the platform edge. It is possible that changes in movement reinvestment can influence specific aspects of posture (leaning) but other aspects may be immune to these changes (amplitude and frequency).

Estimating the risk of exposure of British livestock to foot-and-mouth disease associated with the importation of ship and aircraft waste.

A quantitative risk assessment model was developed to estimate the frequency with which meat waste from ships or aircraft might expose British livestock to infection with foot-and-mouth disease (fmd), and investigate the factors that might contribute to the risk. In the model, the total weight of waste introduced that was contaminated with fmd was estimated to be 26 kg per year, with 90 per cent certainty that it would be between 10 and 53 kg. As a result, it was estimated that there would be a mean of 1429 years between outbreaks of fmd due to ship and aircraft waste, with a 90 per cent certainty that the interval would be between 500 and 10,000 years. These estimates were affected by three principal uncertainties: first, the prevalence of fmd; secondly, the probability of the waste being removed and fed to pigs; and thirdly, the probability that overboard dumping of contaminated waste might expose livestock to fmd. The effect of these uncertainties on the model was investigated in a sensitivity analysis.

Is fall prevention by vitamin D mediated by a change in postural or dynamic balance?

INTRODUCTION: The objectives were:(1) to validate a quantitative balance assessment method for fall risk prediction; (2) to investigate whether the effect of vitamin D and calcium on the risk of falling is mediated through postural or dynamic balance, as assessed by this method. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A secondary analysis of a double blind randomized controlled trial was employed, which included 64 institutionalized elderly women with complete balance assessment (age range: 65-97; mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels: 16.4 ng/ml (SD +/-9.9). Participants received 1,200 mg calcium plus 800 IU cholecalciferol (n=33) or 1,200 mg calcium (n=31) per day over a 3-month treatment period. Using an electronic device attached to the lower back of the participant, balance was assessed as the degree of trunk angular displacement and angular velocity during a postural task (standing on two legs, eyes open, for 20 s) and a dynamic task (get up from a standard height chair with arm rests, sit down and then stand up again and remain standing). RESULTS: It was found that both postural and dynamic balance independently and significantly predicted the rate of falling within the 3-month follow-up. Vitamin D plus calcium reduced the rate of falls by 60% [relative risk (RR)=0.40; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.94] if compared with calcium alone. Once postural and dynamic balance were added to the regression analysis, they both attenuated the effect of vitamin D plus calcium on the rate of falls. For postural balance, the RR changed by 22% from 0.40 to 0.62 if angular displacement was added to the model, and by 9% from 0.40 to 0.49 if angular velocity was added. For dynamic balance, it changed by 1% from 0.40 to 0.41 if angular displacement was added, and by 14% from 0.40 to 0.54 if angular velocity was added. DISCUSSION: Thus, balance assessment using trunk angular displacement is a valid method for the prediction of falls in older women. Of the observed 60% reduction in the rate of falls by vitamin D plus calcium supplementation compared with calcium alone, up to 22% of the treatment effect was explained by a change in postural balance and up to 14% by dynamic balance.

Use of a systematic review to assist the development of Campylobacter control strategies in broilers.

AIMS: Produce an evidence-based ranking of the major contributing factors and sources of Campylobacter occurrence in broilers produced in England, Scotland and Wales - Great Britain (GB). METHOD AND RESULTS: Relevant data were extracted from 159 research papers and findings were grouped into 14 sources of on-farm contamination and 37 contributing factors. A relevancy score was developed to take into account various measures from each study of applicability to GB broilers and strength of findings. Results indicate that major sources of Campylobacter include a depopulation event, another house on-farm, on-farm staff, and other animals on farm. The depopulation schedule (staggered slaughter) and multiple houses on-farm were identified as contributing factors associated with increasing the risk, and those decreasing the risk were use of a hygiene barrier, parent company and certain seasons of rearing. CONCLUSIONS: Although the review was more resource intensive compared to narrative studies, the system allows an increased level of transparency and the ability to investigate patterns and trends. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This paper provides the first evidence-based ranking of the major sources and contributing factors for Campylobacter presence in broilers in GB using a systematic review.

Trunk sway measurements during stance and gait tasks in Parkinson's disease.

To achieve a unified assessment of postural instability in Parkinson's disease (PD) over a range of clinical stance and gait tasks, which may provide an insight into a tendency to fall, we measured trunk sway in the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions in freely moving PD patients and age-matched controls. We also measured task duration as time to complete the task or time to loss of balance. Patients had larger amplitudes of trunk sway velocities for stance tasks (e.g. mean pitch velocity when standing on two-legs eyes closed equalled 19.1 +/- 6.4 for PD patients on medication versus 4.8 +/- 0.3 degrees/s for controls, p = 0.0003) and for an expected (following prior warning) retropulsion test (mean roll angle equalled 4.3 +/- 0.5 degrees for PD patients versus 2.2 +/- 0.6 degrees for controls, p = 0.0003) than controls. Patients were more likely to fall earlier for stance tasks, and took longer to complete gait tasks (e.g. walking 3 m eyes closed, mean time 6.8 +/- 0.6 sees versus 4.9 +/- 0.1 sees, p = 0.0001). These differences between patients and controls were, in most cases, independent of medication. Based on these results we defined a simple test battery of stance and gait tasks that could discriminate between PD patients who had recent falls and controls. These results indicate that trunk sway measures recorded during stance and gait tasks provide useful information on balance deficits leading to falls in PD patients.