CriPAV: Street-Level Crime Patterns Analysis and Visualization.

Extracting and analyzing crime patterns in big cities is a challenging spatiotemporal problem. The hardness of the problem is linked to two main factors, the sparse nature of the crime activity and its spread in large spatial areas. Sparseness hampers most time series (crime time series) comparison methods from working properly, while the handling of large urban areas tends to render the computational costs of such methods impractical. Visualizing different patterns hidden in crime time series data is another issue in this context, mainly due to the number of patterns that can show up in the time series analysis. In this article, we present a new methodology to deal with the issues above, enabling the analysis of spatiotemporal crime patterns in a street-level of detail. Our approach is made up of two main components designed to handle the spatial sparsity and spreading of crimes in large areas of the city. The first component relies on a stochastic mechanism from which one can visually analyze probable×intensive crime hotspots. Such analysis reveals important patterns that can not be observed in the typical intensity-based hotspot visualization. The second component builds upon a deep learning mechanism to embed crime time series in Cartesian space. From the embedding, one can identify spatial locations where the crime time series have similar behavior. The two components have been integrated into a web-based analytical tool called CriPAV (Crime Pattern Analysis and Visualization), which enables global as well as a street-level view of crime patterns. Developed in close collaboration with domain experts, CriPAV has been validated through a set of case studies with real crime data in São Paulo - Brazil. The provided experiments and case studies reveal the effectiveness of CriPAV in identifying patterns such as locations where crimes are not intense but highly probable to occur as well as locations that are far apart from each other but bear similar crime patterns.

CrimAnalyzer: Understanding Crime Patterns in São Paulo.

São Paulo is the largest city in South America, with crime rates that reflect its size. The number and type of crimes vary considerably around the city, assuming different patterns depending on urban and social characteristics of each particular location. Previous works have mostly focused on the analysis of crimes with the intent of uncovering patterns associated to social factors, seasonality, and urban routine activities. Therefore, those studies and tools are more global in the sense that they are not designed to investigate specific regions of the city such as particular neighborhoods, avenues, or public areas. Tools able to explore specific locations of the city are essential for domain experts to accomplish their analysis in a bottom-up fashion, revealing how urban features related to mobility, passersby behavior, and presence of public infrastructures (e.g., terminals of public transportation and schools) can influence the quantity and type of crimes. In this paper, we present CrimAnalyzer, a visual analytic tool that allows users to study the behavior of crimes in specific regions of a city. The system allows users to identify local hotspots and the pattern of crimes associated to them, while still showing how hotspots and corresponding crime patterns change over time. CrimAnalyzer has been developed from the needs of a team of experts in criminology and deals with three major challenges: i) flexibility to explore local regions and understand their crime patterns, ii) identification of spatial crime hotspots that might not be the most prevalent ones in terms of the number of crimes but that are important enough to be investigated, and iii) understand the dynamic of crime patterns over time. The effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed system are demonstrated by qualitative and quantitative comparisons as well as by case studies run by domain experts involving real data. The experiments show the capability of CrimAnalyzer in identifying crime-related phenomena.

[Risk and (in)security in the police mission]. / Risco e (in)segurança na missão policial.

This paper introduces a discussion on the history and use of the concepts of risk and security applied to the police officer's mission. The text is developed in an essay format that shows how both terms developed under the constitution of modern industrial societies. The authors begin with the assumption that the organizational structure of the police in various parts of the world retains the same logic since they were created during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and that this format is in crisis: whether it is because the concept of risk and current management thereof has now become much broader; or because the concept of security has also deepened and broadened, fleeing from the scope of the police institution. The crisis of the police apparatus is an international issue and the authors point to the case of the French police. Reverting to the thoughts of important authors in the sociological area, the authors resume the debate on some issues that they consider urgent: reformulation of the breadth of the concepts of risk and security to understand the police mission; enhancement of the police inside and outside corporations; review of the weight of the hierarchical rigidity or inflexibility on careers in a plural and flexible society.

Risco e (in)segurança na missão policial / Risk and (in)security in the police mission

Este artigo introduz uma discussão sobre a história e o uso dos conceitos de risco e segurança, aplicados ao sentido da missão policial. O texto que se desenvolve de forma ensaística, mostra como ambos os termos se desenvolveram no âmbito da constituição das sociedades modernas e industriais. Os autores partem da hipótese de que a estrutura organizacional da polícia em várias partes do mundo continua com a mesma lógica com que foi criada ao longo dos séculos XVIII e XIX e que esse formato está em crise: seja porque o conceito de risco e sua gestão atual se tornaram muito mais abrangentes; seja porque o conceito de segurança também se aprofundou e ampliou, fugindo ao âmbito da instituição policial. A crise dos aparatos policiais é uma questão internacional e os autores a exemplificam com o caso da França. Retomando o pensamento de autores importantes na área sociológica, os autores colocam em pauta o debate sobre algumas questões que consideram urgentes: reformulação da amplitude dos conceitos de risco e de segurança para compreensão da missão policial; valorização do policial dentro e fora das corporações; revisão sobre o peso da rigidez hierárquica ou da inflexibilidade na sua carreira, numa sociedade plural e flexível.

This paper introduces a discussion on the history and use of the concepts of risk and security applied to the police officer's mission. The text is developed in an essay format that shows how both terms developed under the constitution of modern industrial societies. The authors begin with the assumption that the organizational structure of the police in various parts of the world retains the same logic since they were created during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and that this format is in crisis: whether it is because the concept of risk and current management thereof has now become much broader; or because the concept of security has also deepened and broadened, fleeing from the scope of the police institution. The crisis of the police apparatus is an international issue and the authors point to the case of the French police. Reverting to the thoughts of important authors in the sociological area, the authors resume the debate on some issues that they consider urgent: reformulation of the breadth of the concepts of risk and security to understand the police mission; enhancement of the police inside and outside corporations; review of the weight of the hierarchical rigidity or inflexibility on careers in a plural and flexible society.

Regimes espaciais: dinâmica dos homicídios dolosos na cidade de São Paulo entre 2000 e 2008 / Spatial regimes: dynamics of intentional homicides in the city of São Paulo between 2000 and 2008

OBJETIVO: Identificar a existência de padrões espaço-temporais na ocorrência de homicídios dolosos no Município de São Paulo (MSP) e discutir o valor analítico de levar em conta tais padrões ao elaborar estudos que tratam da dinâmica e dos fatores associados à incidência dos homicídios dolosos. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se um estudo ecológico e longitudinal, tendo como unidades de análise 13 205 setores censitários e os 96 distritos censitários que congregam esses setores na capital paulista. Foram estudados todos os homicídios dolosos registrados no município entre 2000 e 2008 e calculadas as taxas brutas de homicídios dolosos por 100 000 habitantes para cada setor censitário, assim como as taxas bayesianas globais e locais. Para verificar a possibilidade de identificar diferentes padrões de distribuição espacial dos homicídios, foram utilizadas as técnicas BoxMap e o índice de Moran. RESULTADOS: Não houve uma tendência homogênea e sistemática dos homicídios ao longo da última década na capital paulista. Ao invés disso, foram identificados sete padrões de distribuição espacial, ou seja, sete regimes espaciais, para a ocorrência de homicídios dolosos, considerando as taxas dentro de cada setor censitário e nos setores adjacentes. Esses regimes de distribuição espacial não estavam contidos nos limites dos setores e distritos censitários do município. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados mostraram a importância de analisar a distribuição espacial dos fenômenos sociais sem restrição de fronteiras político-administrativas.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the existence of spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of intentional homicides in the municipality of São Paulo (MSP), Brazil, and to discuss the analytical value of taking such patterns into account when designing studies that address the dynamics and factors associated with the incidence of homicides. METHODS: A longitudinal ecological study was conducted, having as units of analysis 13 205 census tracts and the 96 census districts that congregate these sectors in São Paulo. All intentional homicides reported in the city between 2000 and 2008 were analyzed. The gross homicide rates per 100 000 population was calculated as well as the global and local Bayesian estimates for each census tract during the study period. To verify the possibility of identifying different patterns of the spatial distribution of homicides, we used BoxMap and Moran's I index. RESULTS: The homicide trends in the city of São Paulo in the last decade were not homogeneous and systematic. Instead, seven patterns of spatial distribution were identified; that is, seven spatial regimes for the occurrence of intentional homicides, considering the homicide rates within each census tract as well as the rates in adjacent tracts. These spatial distribution regimes were not contained within the limits of the census tracts and districts. CONCLUSIONS: The results show the importance of analyzing the spatial distribution of social phenomena without restriction of political and administrative boundaries.

Evolução dos homicídios e indicadores de segurança pública no Município de São Paulo entre 1996 a 2008: um estudo ecológico de séries temporais / Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of São Paulo between 1996 and 2008: a time-series ecological study

OBJETIVO: analisar a associação entre homicídios e indicadores de segurança pública no MSP entre 1996 e 2008, após controle para taxa de desemprego e proporção de jovens na população. METODOLOGIA: estudo ecológico de série temporal, tendo como unidade de análise o Município de São Paulo (MSP), entre 1996 e 2008. Variável dependente: óbitos por homicídio; variáveis independentes principais: taxa de aprisionamento-encarceramento (TAE), o acesso a armas de fogo (AAF), e a atividade policial (ATP). A análise dos dados foi realizada com o software Stata.IC 10.0. Modelos de regressão binomial negativa simples e multivariados foram construídos. RESULTADOS: A análise univariada demonstrou associação entre óbitos por homicídio e TAE e entre óbitos e ATP. O AAF não se mostrou associado à redução no número de óbitos por homicídios (p > 0,05). Após ajuste houve perda da significância na associação com ambos indicadores de Segurança Pública. CONCLUSÕES: No MSP o papel das ações de segurança pública perdem importância como fatores explicativos para a redução nos níveis de homicídios após controle para taxa de desemprego e redução na proporção de jovens. Os resultados reforçam a importância dos fatores socioeconômicos e demográficos para a mudança no cenário da segurança em São Paulo.

The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in São Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with São Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata.IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In São Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in São Paulo .

[Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of São Paulo between 1996 and 2008: a time-series ecological study]. / Evolução dos homicídios e indicadores de segurança pública no Município de São Paulo entre 1996 a 2008: um estudo ecológico de séries temporais.

The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in São Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with São Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata.IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In São Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in São Paulo .

O autor nos escritos de Foucault: entre o discurso e a morte / The author on Foucault writings: between discourse and death / El autor en los escritos de Foucault: entre el discurso y la muerte

Este ensaio procura seguir os argumentos de Foucault na tese da morte do autor, resultado da crítica do sujeito moderno que funda a filosofia foucaultiana. O caminho tomado pelo estudo dá foco a questões derivadas da arqueologia do saber, especialmente a crítica radical da tradição kantiana do sujeito de conhecimento. Em um segundo momento, o texto acompanha os argumentos que levam Foucault a decretar a morte do autor, concluindo que o sujeito conhecedor e criador é mais um produto de práticas discursivas do que de uma presumida unidade transcendental da razão.

This essay aims to follow Foucault’s arguments on the thesis of the death of the author, result of the critique of the modern subject that has grounded Foucauldian philosophy. The path taken by the study focuses on questions derived from the archeology of knowledge, mainly the radical critique of the Kantian tradition of the knowing subject. Secondly, the text accompanies the arguments that led Foucault to decree the death of author, concluding that the knowing and creative subject is more the product of discursive practices than of a presumed transcendental unity of reason.

Este ensayo tiene como objetivo seguir los argumentos de Foucault sobre la tesis de la muerte del autor, resultado de la crítica al sujeto moderno que funda la filosofía foucaultiana. El camino tomado por el estudio se centra en las cuestiones derivadas de la arqueología del saber, especialmente la crítica radical de la tradición kantiana del sujeto de conocimiento. En segundo lugar, el texto acompaña los argumentos que llevan a Foulcault a decretar la muerte del autor, concluyendo que el sujeto conocedor y creador es más un producto de prácticas discursivas que de una supuesta unidad trascendental de la razón.

O autor nos escritos de Foucault: entre o discurso e a morte / El autor en los escritos de Foucault: entre el discurso y la muerte / The author on Foucault writings: between discourse and death

Este ensaio procura seguir os argumentos de Foucault na tese da morte do autor, resultado da crítica do sujeito moderno que funda a filosofia foucaultiana. O caminho tomado pelo estudo dá foco a questões derivadas da arqueologia do saber, especialmente a crítica radical da tradição kantiana do sujeito de conhecimento. Em um segundo momento, o texto acompanha os argumentos que levam Foucault a decretar a morte do autor, concluindo que o sujeito conhecedor e criador é mais um produto de práticas discursivas do que de uma presumida unidade transcendental da razão.(AU)

This essay aims to follow Foucault’s arguments on the thesis of the death of the author, result of the critique of the modern subject that has grounded Foucauldian philosophy. The path taken by the study focuses on questions derived from the archeology of knowledge, mainly the radical critique of the Kantian tradition of the knowing subject. Secondly, the text accompanies the arguments that led Foucault to decree the death of author, concluding that the knowing and creative subject is more the product of discursive practices than of a presumed transcendental unity of reason.(AU)

Este ensayo tiene como objetivo seguir los argumentos de Foucault sobre la tesis de la muerte del autor, resultado de la crítica al sujeto moderno que funda la filosofía foucaultiana. El camino tomado por el estudio se centra en las cuestiones derivadas de la arqueología del saber, especialmente la crítica radical de la tradición kantiana del sujeto de conocimiento. En segundo lugar, el texto acompaña los argumentos que llevan a Foulcault a decretar la muerte del autor, concluyendo que el sujeto conocedor y creador es más un producto de prácticas discursivas que de una supuesta unidad trascendental de la razón.(AU)

[Spatial regimes: dynamics of intentional homicides in the city of São Paulo between 2000 and 2008]. / Regimes espaciais: dinâmica dos homicídios dolosos na cidade de São Paulo entre 2000 e 2008.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the existence of spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of intentional homicides in the municipality of São Paulo (MSP), Brazil, and to discuss the analytical value of taking such patterns into account when designing studies that address the dynamics and factors associated with the incidence of homicides. METHODS: A longitudinal ecological study was conducted, having as units of analysis 13 205 census tracts and the 96 census districts that congregate these sectors in São Paulo. All intentional homicides reported in the city between 2000 and 2008 were analyzed. The gross homicide rates per 100 000 population was calculated as well as the global and local Bayesian estimates for each census tract during the study period. To verify the possibility of identifying different patterns of the spatial distribution of homicides, we used BoxMap and Moran's I index. RESULTS: The homicide trends in the city of São Paulo in the last decade were not homogeneous and systematic. Instead, seven patterns of spatial distribution were identified; that is, seven spatial regimes for the occurrence of intentional homicides, considering the homicide rates within each census tract as well as the rates in adjacent tracts. These spatial distribution regimes were not contained within the limits of the census tracts and districts. CONCLUSIONS: The results show the importance of analyzing the spatial distribution of social phenomena without restriction of political and administrative boundaries.

Queda dos homicídios no município de São Paulo: uma análise exploratória de possíveis condicionantes / Fall in homicides in the city of São Paulo: an exploratory analysis of possible determinants

Ao longo da primeira década dos anos 2000, a taxa de mortalidade por homicídio (TMH) apresentou uma expressiva redução no Estado e no Município de São Paulo (MSP). O objetivo deste estudo é descrever a evolução das TMH e de indicadores sociodemográficos, de investimento em políticas sociais e segurança pública, e analisar a correlação entre a evolução das TMHs e das variáveis independentes no MSP entre 1996 e 2008. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico de série temporal, exploratório. As seguintes variáveis foram incluídas: TMH por 100.000 habitantes, indicadores sociodemográficos, investimentos em políticas sociais e de segurança pública. Foram calculadas as médias móveis de todas as variáveis e a tendência foi analisada através de Regressão Linear. Foram calculadas as variações percentual anual, média anual e percentual periódica, e a associação foi testada por meio da análise de correlação de Spearman entre a variação percentual anual das variáveis. Foram encontradas correlações com a proporção de jovens na população (r = 0,69), taxa de desemprego (r = 0,60), investimento estadual em educação e cultura (r = 0,87) e saúde e saneamento (r = 0,56), investimento municipal (r = 0,68) e estadual (r = 0,53) em segurança pública, armas apreendidas (r = 0,69) e taxa de encarceramento-aprisionamento (r = 0,71). Os resultados apresentados permitem sustentar a hipótese de que alterações demográficas, aceleração da economia, em especial a queda do desemprego, investimentos em políticas sociais e mudanças nas políticas de segurança pública atuam sinergicamente para a redução da TMH em São Paulo. Torna-se necessário o desenvolvimento de modelos de análise complexos que incorporem a atuação conjunta dos distintos fatores com potencial explicativo.

Throughout the first decade of the 2000s the homicide mortality rate (HMR) showed a significant reduction in the state and the city of São Paulo (MSP). The aim of this study is to describe the trend of HMR, socio-demographic indicators, and the investment in social and public security, and to analyze the correlation between HMR and independent variables in the MSP between 1996 and 2008. An exploratory time series ecological study was conducted. The following variables were included: HMR per 100,000 inhabitants, socio-demographic indicators, and investments in social and public security. The moving-averages for all variables were calculated and trends were analyzed through Simple Linear Regression models. Annual percentage changes, the average annual change and periodic percentage changes were calculated for all variables, and the associations between annual percentage changes were tested by Spearman's correlation analysis. Correlations were found for the proportion of youth in the population (r = 0.69), unemployment rate (r = 0.60), State budget for education and culture (r = 0.87) and health and sanitation (r = 0.56), municipal (r = 0.68) and State (r = 0.53) budget for Public Security, firearms seized (r = 0.69) and the incarceration rate (r = 0.71). The results allow us to support the hypothesis that demographic changes, acceleration of the economy, in particular the fall in unemployment, investment in social policies and changes in public security policies act synergistically to reduce HMR in São Paulo. Complex models of analysis, incorporating the joint action of different potential explanatory variables, should be developed.

[Decline in homicide rates in São Paulo, Brasil: a descriptive analysis]. / Queda dos homicídios em São Paulo, Brasil: uma análise descritiva.

OBJECTIVE: To describe homicide mortality in the municipality of São Paulo according to type of weapon, sex, race or skin color, age, and areas of socioeconomic inequalities, between 1996 and 2008. METHOD: For this ecological time-series study, data about deaths in the municipality of São Paulo were collected from the municipal program for improvement of mortality information, using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Homicide mortality rates (HMR) were calculated for the overall population and specifically for each sex, race or skin color, age range, type of weapon, and occurrence in social deprivation/affluence areas. HMR were adjusted for age using the direct method. The percentage age of variation in HMR was calculated for the study period. For areas of socioeconomic inequalities, the relative risk of death from homicide was calculated. RESULTS: HMR fell 73.7% between 2001 and 2008. A reduction in HMR was observed in all groups, especially males (-74.5%), young men between 15 and 24 years of age (-78.0%), and residents in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation (-79.3%). The reduction occurred mostly in firearm homicide rates (-74.1%). The relative risk of death from homicide in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation, as compared to areas with some degree of socioeconomic deprivation, was 2.77 in 1996, 3.9 in 2001, and 2.13 in 2008. In areas of high socioeconomic deprivation, the relative risk was 2.07 in 1996 and 1.96 in 2008. CONCLUSIONS: To understand the reduction in homicide rates in the municipality of São Paulo, it is important to take into consideration macrodeterminants that affect the entire municipality and all population subgroups, as well as micro/local determinants that have special impact on homicides committed with firearms and on subgroups such as the young, males, and residents of areas of high socioeconomic deprivation.

Queda dos homicídios em São Paulo, Brasil: uma análise descritiva / Decline in homicide rates in São Paulo, Brasil: a descriptive analysis

OBJETIVO: Descrever a evolução da mortalidade por homicídios no Município de São Paulo segundo tipo de arma, sexo, raça ou cor, idade e áreas de exclusão/inclusão social entre 1996 e 2008. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico de série temporal. Os dados sobre óbitos ocorridos no Município foram coletados da base de dados do Programa de Aprimoramento das Informações sobre Mortalidade, seguindo a Classificação Internacional de Doenças, Décima Revisão (CID-10). Foram calculadas as taxas de mortalidade por homicídio (TMH) para a população total, por sexo, raça ou cor, faixa etária, tipo de arma e área de exclusão/inclusão social. As TMH foram padronizadas por idade pelo método direto. Foram calculados os percentuais de variação no período estudado. Para as áreas de exclusão/inclusão social foram calculados os riscos relativos de morte por homicídio. RESULTADOS: As TMH apresentaram queda de 73,7 por cento entre 2001 e 2008. Foi observada redução da TMH em todos os grupos analisados, mais pronunciada em homens (-74,5 por cento), jovens de 15 a 24 anos (-78,0 por cento) e moradores de áreas de exclusão social extrema (-79,3 por cento). A redução ocorreu, sobretudo, nos homicídios cometidos com armas de fogo (-74,1 por cento). O risco relativo de morte por homicídio nas áreas de exclusão extrema (tendo como referência áreas com algum grau de exclusão social) foi de 2,77 em 1996, 3,9 em 2001 e 2,13 em 2008. Nas áreas de alta exclusão social, o risco relativo foi de 2,07 em 1996 e 1,96 em 2008. CONCLUSÕES: Para compreender a redução dos homicídios no Município, é importante considerar macrodeterminantes que atingem todo o Município e todos os subgrupos populacionais e microdeterminantes que atuam localmente, influenciando de forma diferenciada os homicídios com armas de fogo e os homicídios na população jovem, no sexo masculino e em residentes em áreas de alta exclusão social.

OBJECTIVE: To describe homicide mortality in the municipality of São Paulo according to type of weapon, sex, race or skin color, age, and areas of socioeconomic inequalities, between 1996 and 2008. METHOD: For this ecological time-series study, data about deaths in the municipality of São Paulo were collected from the municipal program for improvement of mortality information, using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Homicide mortality rates (HMR) were calculated for the overall population and specifically for each sex, race or skin color, age range, type of weapon, and occurrence in social deprivation/affluence areas. HMR were adjusted for age using the direct method. The percentage age of variation in HMR was calculated for the study period. For areas of socioeconomic inequalities, the relative risk of death from homicide was calculated. RESULTS: HMR fell 73.7 percent between 2001 and 2008. A reduction in HMR was observed in all groups, especially males (-74.5 percent), young men between 15 and 24 years of age (-78.0 percent), and residents in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation (-79.3 percent). The reduction occurred mostly in firearm homicide rates (-74.1 percent). The relative risk of death from homicide in areas of extreme socioeconomic deprivation, as compared to areas with some degree of socioeconomic deprivation, was 2.77 in 1996, 3.9 in 2001, and 2.13 in 2008. In areas of high socioeconomic deprivation, the relative risk was 2.07 in 1996 and 1.96 in 2008. CONCLUSIONS: To understand the reduction in homicide rates in the municipality of São Paulo, it is important to take into consideration macrodeterminants that affect the entire municipality and all population subgroups, as well as micro/local determinants that have special impact on homicides committed with firearms and on subgroups such as the young, males, and residents of areas of high socioeconomic deprivation.

Fall in homicides in the city of São Paulo: an exploratory analysis of possible determinants.

Throughout the first decade of the 2000s the homicide mortality rate (HMR) showed a significant reduction in the state and the city of São Paulo (MSP). The aim of this study is to describe the trend of HMR, socio-demographic indicators, and the investment in social and public security, and to analyze the correlation between HMR and independent variables in the MSP between 1996 and 2008. An exploratory time series ecological study was conducted. The following variables were included: HMR per 100,000 inhabitants, socio-demographic indicators, and investments in social and public security. The moving-averages for all variables were calculated and trends were analyzed through Simple Linear Regression models. Annual percentage changes, the average annual change and periodic percentage changes were calculated for all variables, and the associations between annual percentage changes were tested by Spearman's correlation analysis. Correlations were found for the proportion of youth in the population (r = 0.69), unemployment rate (r = 0.60), State budget for education and culture (r = 0.87) and health and sanitation (r = 0.56), municipal (r = 0.68) and State (r = 0.53) budget for Public Security, firearms seized (r = 0.69) and the incarceration rate (r = 0.71). The results allow us to support the hypothesis that demographic changes, acceleration of the economy, in particular the fall in unemployment, investment in social policies and changes in public security policies act synergistically to reduce HMR in São Paulo. Complex models of analysis, incorporating the joint action of different potential explanatory variables, should be developed.

[Homicide mortality, socioeconomic development, and police violence in the city of São Paulo, Brazil]. / Homicídios, desenvolvimento socioeconômico e violência policial no Município de São Paulo, Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between police violence and homicide mortality rates taking into consideration the effect of contextual variables. METHODS: This was an environmental, cross-sectional study that included the 96 census districts in the City of São Paulo. The association between the variables was analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation and simple and multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Univariate analysis revealed a strong and significant association between homicide mortality coefficients and all the indicators of socioeconomic development and police violence. After controlling for potential confounding factors, the association between police violence and homicide mortality coefficients remained strong and significant. This significance was lost only after control for the size of the resident population. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that police action that violates basic human rights is not the right answer to urban violence. The combination of homicides from interpersonal violence and deaths from police violence results in negative socialization and promotes further violence.

Homicídios, desenvolvimento socioeconômico e violência policial no Município de São Paulo, Brasil / Homicide mortality, socioeconomic development, and police violence in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJETIVO: Analisar a associação entre violência policial e coeficientes de mortalidade por homicídio, considerando o efeito de variáveis contextuais. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico de corte transversal considerando os 96 distritos censitários do Município de São Paulo. A associação entre as variáveis foi determinada através de correlação de Spearman e de análise de regressão linear simples e múltipla. RESULTADOS: Nas análises univariadas, encontramos associação forte e significativa entre os coeficientes de mortalidade por homicídio e todos os indicadores de desenvolvimento socioeconômico e violência policial. Após controle dos potenciais confundidores, a associação entre a violência policial e os coeficientes de mortalidade por homicídio manteve-se forte e significativa. Apenas com o controle para o tamanho da população residente a associação perdeu a significância estatística. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados indicam que uma ação policial centrada na violação de direitos humanos básicos não parece ser a resposta correta para o enfrentamento da violência urbana. A combinação de homicídios que resultam de violência interpessoal com mortes por violência policial representa uma situação de socialização negativa, favorecendo ainda mais violência.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between police violence and homicide mortality rates taking into consideration the effect of contextual variables. METHODS: This was an environmental, cross-sectional study that included the 96 census districts in the City of São Paulo. The association between the variables was analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation and simple and multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Univariate analysis revealed a strong and significant association between homicide mortality coefficients and all the indicators of socioeconomic development and police violence. After controlling for potential confounding factors, the association between police violence and homicide mortality coefficients remained strong and significant. This significance was lost only after control for the size of the resident population. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that police action that violates basic human rights is not the right answer to urban violence. The combination of homicides from interpersonal violence and deaths from police violence results in negative socialization and promotes further violence.

Criminalidade organizada nas prisões e os ataques do PCC / Organized criminality in prisons and the PCC attacks

A emergência da criminalidade organizada nas prisões brasileiras, em especial no Estado de São Paulo, constitui objeto deste artigo. Tomam-se como ponto de partida e referência para análise as ondas de ataques desencadeadas pelo Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), de maio a agosto de 2006, que resultaram em inúmeros mortos, paralisaram cidades e acuaram as autoridades encarregadas de aplicar lei e ordem. A emergência da criminalidade organizada é analisada sob eixos determinados: cenário internacional e contexto brasileiro, antecedentes históricos, enraizamento do crime na sociedade e papel das políticas públicas penitenciárias.

The advent of organized crime in Brazilian prisons, especially in the state of São Paulo, constitutes the object of this article. The waves of attack unleashed by the Capital's First Command (PCC - Primeiro Comando da Capital), in May 2006, which resulted in countless deaths, brought cities to a halt, and cornered authorities in charge preventing them from applying law and order are the starting as well as reference points taken. The advent of organized criminality is analyzed under the light of determined axes: the international scenario and the Brazilian context, the historical antecedents, the taking root of crime in society and the role of penitentiary public policies.