Household food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic and associated socioeconomic demographic factors in Papua New Guinea: evidence from the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic had an unprecedented impact on global food security, but little is known about the impact on food security at the household level. We examined the prevalence and socioeconomic demographic factors for household food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Papua New Guinea. METHODS: Household socioeconomic demographic data from the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System were collected from six main provinces in 2020 (37880 participants) and compared with the 2018 data (5749 participants). The prevalence of household food insecurity was estimated and stratified by household socioeconomic demographic characteristics. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to estimate adjusted OR (aOR) and 95% CI of risk factors. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of household food insecurity increased from 11% in 2018 to 20% in 2020, but varied across provinces, with the highest level reported in Central Province (35%) and the lowest level in East New Britain Province (5%).Food shortages were 72% less likely among urban residents than those living in rural areas (aOR 0.28 (95% CI 0.21 to 0.36)). The risk of food insecurity was 53% higher among adults aged 25+ years with primary education (grades 3-8) than those with university education (aOR 1.53 (95% CI 1.09 to 2.13)). People from households in the poorest wealth quintiles were 80% more likely to report food shortage than those from the richest wealth quintile (aOR 1.78 (95% CI 1.29 to 2.45). CONCLUSION: The study provides evidence to develop policy and intervention to deal with food insecurity in emergency situations in the future.

Validating the InterVA-5 cause of death analytical tool: using mortality data from the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System in Papua New Guinea.

OBJECTIVE: InterVA-5 is a new version of an analytical tool for cause of death (COD) analysis at the population level. This study validates the InterVA-5 against the medical review method, using mortality data in Papua New Guinea (PNG). DESIGN AND SETTING: This study used mortality data collected from January 2018 to December 2020 in eight surveillance sites of the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System (CHESS), established by the PNG Institute of Medical Research in six major provinces. METHODS: The CHESS demographic team conducted verbal autopsy (VA) interviews with close relatives of the deceased, who died in communities within the catchment areas of CHESS, using the WHO 2016 VA instrument. COD of the deceased was assigned by InterVA-5 tool, and independently certified by the medical team. Consistency, difference and agreement between the InterVA-5 model and medical review were assessed. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of the InterVA-5 tool were calculated with reference to the medical review method. RESULTS: Specific COD of 926 deceased people was included in the validation. Agreement between the InterVA-5 tool and medical review was high (kappa test: 0.72; p<0.01). Sensitivity and PPV of the InterVA-5 were 93% and 72% for cardiovascular diseases, 84% and 86% for neoplasms, 65% and 100% for other chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 78% and 64% for maternal deaths, respectively. For infectious diseases and external CODs, sensitivity and PPV of the InterVA-5 were 94% and 90%, respectively, while the sensitivity and PPV of the medical review method were both 54% for classifying neonatal CODs. CONCLUSION: The InterVA-5 tool works well in the PNG context to assign specific CODs of infectious diseases, cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms and injuries. Further improvements with respect to chronic NCDs, maternal deaths and neonatal deaths are needed.