Alcohol control policy and alcohol-attributable disease burden in Finland and the Baltic countries: A longitudinal study 1995-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol remains a significant contributor to mortality and morbidity in Finland and the Baltic countries, particularly among men. This study aimed to assess alcohol policy restrictiveness in this region from 1995 to 2019 using a modified version of the Bridging the Gap (BtG-M) policy scale and examine its association with alcohol-related disease burden. METHODS: The study utilised national laws to score policy restrictiveness (higher BtG-M scores mean stricter policies) and age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost, years lived with disability and deaths per 100,000 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Spearman correlation tests and panel data regression models were applied to assess the association between policy score and burden of disease. RESULTS: Finland maintained a high BtG-M score, while the Baltic countries experienced recent increases from initially lower scores. Alcohol-related disease burden showed an inverse association with policy changes in these countries. Strongest association was seen between the BtG-M score and DALY rates attributed to injuries. Premature mortality among men constituted the largest proportion of disease burden. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Despite challenges in accessing and comparing policy data over time, we showed a strong association between alcohol policy and alcohol-related harm in Finland and the Baltic countries. This study is one of the first to use the BtG-M scale to monitor changes in alcohol policies over time and their relationship to alcohol-related harm using GBD methodology. The study highlights the effects of national alcohol policies on levels of alcohol-related harm.

Income-based differences in healthcare utilization in relation to mortality in the Swedish population between 2004-2017: A nationwide register study.

BACKGROUND: Despite universal healthcare, socioeconomic differences in healthcare utilization (HCU) persist in modern welfare states. However, little is known of how HCU inequalities has developed over time. The aim of this study is to assess time trends of differences in utilization of primary and specialized care for the lowest (Q1) and highest (Q5) income quantiles and compare these to mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a repeated cross-sectional register-based study design, data on utilization of (i) primary; (ii) specialized outpatient; and (iii) inpatient care, as well as (iv) cause of death, were linked to family income and sociodemographic control variables (for instance, country of origin and marital status). The study sample comprised all individuals 16 years or older residing in Sweden any year during the study period and ranged from 7.1 million in year 2004 to 8.0 million year 2017. HCU and mortality for all disease as well as for the 5 disease groups causing most deaths were compared for the Q1 and Q5 using logistic regression, adjusting for sex, age, marital status, and birth country. The primary outcome measures were adjusted odds ratios (ORs), and regression coefficients of annual changes in these ORs log-transformed. Additionally, we conducted negative binominal regression to calculate adjusted rate ratios (RRs) comparing Q1 and Q5 with regard to number of disease specific healthcare encounters ≤5 years prior to death. In 2017, for all diseases combined, Q1 utilized marginally more primary and specialized outpatient care than Q5 (OR 1.07, 95% CI [1.07, 1.08]; p < 0.001, and OR 1.04, 95% CI [1.04, 1.05]; p < 0.001, respectively), and considerably more inpatient care (OR 1.44, 95% CI [1.43, 1.45]; p < 0.001). The largest relative inequality was observed for mortality (OR 1.78, 95% CI [1.74, 1.82]; p < 0.001). This pattern was broadly reproduced for each of the 5 disease groups. Time trends in HCU inequality varied by level of care. Each year, Q1 (versus Q5) used more inpatient care and suffered increasing mortality rates. However, utilization of primary and specialized outpatient care increased more among Q5 than in Q1. Finally, group differences in number of healthcare encounters ≤5 years prior to death demonstrated a similar pattern. For each disease group, primary and outpatient care encounters were fewer in Q1 than in Q5, while inpatient encounters were similar or higher in Q1. A main limitation of this study is the absence of data on self-reported need for care, which impedes quantifications of HCU inequalities each year. CONCLUSIONS: Income-related differences in the utilization of primary and specialized outpatient care were considerably smaller than for mortality, and this discrepancy widened with time. Facilitating motivated use of primary and outpatient care among low-income groups could help mitigate the growing health inequalities.

Risk of readmission among individuals with cannabis use disorder during a 15-year cohort study: the impact of socio-economic factors and psychiatric comorbidity.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Cannabis use disorder (CUD) is one of the main reasons for seeking substance treatment in the Nordic countries, but there are few studies on readmission to care. We aimed to characterize CUD readmission and estimate the magnitude of how socio-economic factors and psychiatric comorbidity influence the risk of CUD readmission. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a nation-wide cohort study carried out between 2001 and 2016 in Sweden. The participants were individuals with CUD, aged 17 years and above (n = 12 143). MEASUREMENTS: Information on predictors was obtained from registers and included education, income and psychiatric comorbidity assessed by six disease groups. The outcome measure was readmission, defined as a CUD visit to health-care at least 6 months after initial CUD diagnosis. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox survival analyses and flexible parametric survival analyses to assess risk of readmission and how the risk varied with age. FINDINGS: The vast majority of CUD visits took place in outpatient care (~80%). Approximately 23% of the included individuals were readmitted to care during follow-up. The fully adjusted model showed an increased risk of readmission among those with schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders [HR = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.84], low education (HR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.24-1.57), personality disorders (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.05-1.54) or mood disorders (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.12-1.45). Flexible parametric modeling revealed increased risk of readmission mainly in individuals aged 18-35 years. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of readmission was highest among those with low education, schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders, mood-related disorders or personality disorders. Individuals aged 18-35 years showed the highest risk of readmission. Our findings highlight individuals with complex health-care needs.

Educational level and the risk of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm in different age-groups: A cohort study covering 1,6 million subjects in the Stockholm region.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between low education and risk of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm in different age-groups. METHODS: All subjects in Stockholm born between 1931 and 1990 were linked to their own or their parent's highest education in 2000 and followed-up for these disorders in health care registers 2001-2016. Subjects were stratified into four age-groups: 10-18, 19-27, 28-50, and 51-70 years. Hazard Ratios with 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) were estimated with Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Low education increased the risk of substance use disorders and self-harm in all age-groups. Males aged 10-18 with low education had increased risks of ADHD and conduct disorders, and females a decreased risk of anorexia, bulimia and autism. Those aged 19-27 years had increased risks of anxiety and depression, and those aged 28-50 had increased risks of all mental disorders except anorexia and bulimia in males with Hazard Ratios ranging from 1.2 (95% CIs 1.0-1.3) for bipolar disorder to 5.4 (95% CIs 5.1-5.7) for drug use disorder. Females aged 51-70 years had increased risks of schizophrenia and autism. CONCLUSION: Low education is associated with risk of most mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm in all age-groups, but especially among those aged 28-50 years.

Cannabis use disorder in relation to socioeconomic factors and psychiatric comorbidity: A cluster analysis of three million individuals born in 1970-2000.

BACKGROUND: Cannabis use disorder (CUD) is one of the main reasons for seeking substance use treatment. It is thus important to monitor and increase knowledge of individuals with CUD utilizing healthcare. We aimed to examine the number of CUD diagnoses over time, compare individuals with CUD with those without and identify subgroups based on CUD diagnosis, sex, birth year, socioeconomic factors and psychiatric comorbidity. METHODS: A Swedish, population-based study with 3,307,759 individuals, born in 1970-2000, with register data extending to 2016. K-mode cluster analysis was used to identify potential subgroups. RESULTS: The number of individuals with a CUD diagnosis was 14,046 (0.42%). CUD diagnoses increased over time (born 1990-1994: 61 per 100,000, born 1995-2000: 107 per 100,000, by 2016). A majority of those with a CUD had another psychiatric diagnosis (80%, compared with 19% for those without CUD). Four clusters were identified. Cluster 1 comprised mainly men with low income and substance use disorders, clusters 2, 3 and 4 comprised mainly women with higher proportions of mood-related, neurotic and stress-related and behavioural disorders. CONCLUSIONS: There was an increase in CUD diagnoses in Sweden over time, especially among younger birth cohorts. Individuals with CUD were more often male, from younger birth cohorts, with lower education and income than those without CUD. Men and women with CUD exhibited differences in education, income and psychiatric comorbidity. Our results demonstrate the importance of monitoring the impact of socioeconomic factors and psychiatric comorbidity in relation to CUD.

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time. Methods: Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated. Findings: In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 - 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432-912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9-412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (-27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs. Interpretation: Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people. Funding: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Poverty in adolescence and later drug use disorders: understanding the mediation and interaction effects of other psychiatric disorders.

BACKGROUND: Poverty in adolescence is associated with later drug use. Few studies have evaluated the role of adolescent psychiatric disorders in this association. AIMS: This study aimed to investigate mediation and interaction simultaneously, enabling the disentanglement of the role of adolescent psychiatric disorders in the association between poverty in adolescent and later drug use disorders. METHOD: A national cohort study of 634 223 individuals born in 1985-1990, residing in Sweden between the ages of 13 and 18 years, was followed from age 19 years until the first in-patient or out-patient care visit with a diagnosis of drug use disorder. A four-way decomposition method was used to determine the total effect of the association with poverty and possible mediation by and/or interaction with diagnosis of adolescent psychiatric disorders. RESULTS: The hazard ratios for drug use disorders among those experiencing poverty compared with those 'never in poverty' were 1.40 (95% CI, 1.32-1.63) in females and 1.43 (95% CI, 1.37-1.49) in males, after adjusting for domicile, origin and parental psychiatric disorders. Twenty-four per cent of this association in females, and 13% in males, was explained by interaction with and/or mediation by adolescent psychiatric disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Part of the association between poverty in adolescence and later drug use disorders was due to mediation by and/or interaction with psychiatric disorders. Narrowing socioeconomic inequalities in adolescence might help to reduce the risks of later drug use disorders. Interventions aimed at adolescents with psychiatric disorders might be especially important.

Trajectories of NEET (Not in Education, Employment, and Training) in emerging adulthood, and later drug use disorder - a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Being not in education, employment, or training (NEET) has been associated with poor health outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the association between NEET during emerging adulthood and later drug use disorder (DUD) among males and females. METHOD: A national cohort comprising 383,116 Swedish males and 362,002 females born between 1984 and 1990. NEET exposure was assessed annually between the ages 17 and 24 years, and follow-up for DUD between ages 25-33. Trajectories of NEET were estimated using group-based trajectory analysis. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of DUD. Sibling-comparison model was performed to account for potential shared genetic and environmental factors. RESULTS: Four trajectories of NEET were identified: "constant low", "transient peak", "late increase", and "constant high". Compared with the "constant low", all other trajectories were associated with increased HRs of DUD. HR was highest among males and females in the "late increase trajectory"; HR = 4.10 (3.79-4.44, 95% CI) and HR = 3.73 (3.29-4.24, 95% CI), after adjusting for domicile, origin, birth year, psychiatric diagnoses, and parental psychiatric diagnoses. This association was reduced to about a twofold increased risk in the sibling comparison analysis. CONCLUSION: Being NEET during emerging adulthood was associated with later DUD for both males and females. Neither origin, psychiatric diagnoses, parental psychiatric diagnoses, nor shared familial factors did fully explain the association. Males and females belonging to the late increase NEET trajectory had about a twofold increased risk of DUD.

Alcohol-attributed disease burden in four Nordic countries between 2000 and 2017: Are the gender gaps narrowing? A comparison using the Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor 2017 study.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: The gender difference in alcohol use seems to have narrowed in the Nordic countries, but it is not clear to what extent this may have affected differences in levels of harm. We compared gender differences in all-cause and cause-specific alcohol-attributed disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), in four Nordic countries in 2000-2017, to find out if gender gaps in DALYs had narrowed. DESIGN AND METHODS: Alcohol-attributed disease burden by DALYs per 100 000 population with 95% uncertainty intervals were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease database. RESULTS: In 2017, all-cause DALYs in males varied between 2531 in Finland and 976 in Norway, and in females between 620 in Denmark and 270 in Norway. Finland had the largest gender differences and Norway the smallest, closely followed by Sweden. During 2000-2017, absolute gender differences in all-cause DALYs declined by 31% in Denmark, 26% in Finland, 19% in Sweden and 18% in Norway. In Finland, this was driven by a larger relative decline in males than females; in Norway, it was due to increased burden in females. In Denmark, the burden in females declined slightly more than in males, in relative terms, while in Sweden the relative decline was similar in males and females. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The gender gaps in harm narrowed to a different extent in the Nordic countries, with the differences driven by different conditions. Findings are informative about how inequality, policy and sociocultural differences affect levels of harm by gender.

Association between poverty exposure during childhood and adolescence, and drug use disorders and drug-related crimes later in life.

AIMS: To examine whether poverty exposure in childhood/adolescence increases the risk of later drug use disorder and drug crime conviction. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A national cohort study encompassing 634 284 individuals born between 1985 and 1990, residing in Sweden between 5 and 18 years of age, followed-up from January 2004 to December 2016, starting from the age of 19 years until the first visit to inpatient/outpatient care with a diagnosis of a drug use disorder or a drug crime offence. MEASUREMENTS: The exposure variable was 'trajectories of poverty' based on household income, assessed through group-based trajectory analysis. Cox regression analysis was used to obtain hazard ratios for drug use disorders and drug crime convictions using age as the underlying time scale. FINDINGS: We identified five trajectories of childhood/adolescence poverty: (1) 'moving out of poverty in childhood' (8.7%); (2) 'never poverty' (68.9%); (3) 'moving into poverty in adolescence' (11.0%); (4) 'moving out of poverty in adolescence' (5.4%); and (5) 'chronically poor' (5.9%). Compared with the 'never poor' group, almost all trajectory groups had higher risks for drug use problems. Young males 'moving into poverty in adolescence' had the highest risks of drug use disorder [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.40-1.57] and drug crime conviction (HR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.38-1.62), after adjusting for calendar year, domicile, origin, psychiatric diagnosis and parental psychiatric diagnosis. The results were similar in females moving into poverty in adolescence (HR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.52-1.76 and HR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.74-2.05 for drug use disorders and drug crime, respectively). CONCLUSION: In Sweden, poverty exposure early in life seems to increase the risk of drug use problems in adulthood. These associations are not explained fully by domicile, origin or other psychiatric disorders. Young males and females moving into poverty in adolescence are at highest risk.

Cannabis use and the risk of anxiety and depression in women: A comparison of three Swedish cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The associations between cannabis use and anxiety or depression remain unclear. If cannabis affects these conditions, it is of interest to examine possible changes in cannabis use over time, in relation to anxiety and depression, as cannabis potency has increased in recent decades. METHODS: Cohorts from the Women and Alcohol in Gothenburg study (n = 1 100), from three time periods were used to examine associations over time between cannabis use and anxiety and depression. Logistic regression analyses were used and relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) was calculated to examine potential additive interactions between period of cannabis use, cannabis use, and anxiety or depression. FINDINGS: Cannabis use was associated with anxiety in the oldest cohort (examined 1986-1992, born 1955/65), OR = 5.14 (1.67-15.80, 95 % CI), and with both anxiety and depression in the youngest cohort (examined 2000-2015, born 1980/93), OR = 1.66 (1.00-2.74, 95 % CI) and 2.37 (1.45-3.86, 95 % CI), respectively. RERI was significant between cannabis use and depression in the youngest cohort when compared with older cohorts (1.68 (0.45-2.92, 95 % CI)). LIMITATIONS: Cross-sectional data prevent statements on causality, though between-cohort comparisons are possible. CONCLUSION: The association between cannabis use and depression becomes more pronounced when adding the effect of period of use rather than looking at the effect of cannabis use itself. This study provides clinicians and public health workers with scientifically underpinned knowledge regarding the link between cannabis use and depression, of particular importance given increasing cannabis potency.

Cannabis use, subsequent other illicit drug use and drug use disorders: A 16-year follow-up study among Swedish adults.

AIMS: To examine the association between cannabis use and subsequent other illicit drug use and drug use disorders (harmful use and dependence). DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: We used survey data from a population-based cohort in Stockholm County (collected 1998-2000), with linkage to the National Patient Register. The study base comprised participants aged 20-64 years (N = 10 345), followed-up until 2014. Cox and logistic regression analyses were conducted to test associations between self-reported cannabis use and risk of subsequent other illicit drug use (three-year follow-up) and drug use disorders (16-year follow-up). FINDINGS: The odds ratio (OR) for other illicit drug use onset at three-year follow-up for lifetime cannabis users was 7.00 (4.47-10.35, 95% CI) and for recent cannabis users 34.41 (19.14-61.88, 95% CI). Adjusting for age and AUDIT score attenuated the association, for lifetime users: OR = 5.48 (3.69-8.13, 95% CI) and OR = 5.65 (3.80-8.41, 95% CI), and for recent users: OR = 18.32 (9.88-33.99, 95% CI) and OR = 20.88 (11.19-38.95, 95% CI). For cannabis users only, the hazard ratio (HR) for drug use disorders at 16-year follow-up was 0.89 (0.31-2.61, 95%CI). For cannabis and other illicit drug users, the corresponding HR was 7.27 (3.85-13.75, 95% CI). CONCLUSIONS: There was no independent association between cannabis use and subsequent drug use disorders. The association with subsequent drug use disorders was rather explained by other illicit drug use, which cannabis users were at higher risk of at the three-year follow-up.

Alcohol and type 2 diabetes: The role of socioeconomic, lifestyle and psychosocial factors.

AIMS: We investigate (a) alcohol consumption in association with type 2 diabetes, taking heavy episodic drinking (HED), socioeconomic, health and lifestyle, and psychosocial factors into account, and (b) whether a seemingly protective effect of moderate alcohol consumption on type 2 diabetes persists when stratified by occupational position. METHODS: This population-based longitudinal cohort study comprises 16,223 Swedes aged 18-84 years who answered questionnaires about lifestyle, including alcohol consumption in 2002, and who were followed-up for self-reported or register-based diabetes in 2003-2011. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated in a multivariable-adjusted logistic regression model for all participants and stratified by high and low occupational position. We adjusted for HED, socioeconomic (occupational position, cohabiting status and unemployment), health and lifestyle (body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, smoking, physical inactivity, poor general health, anxiety/depression and psychosocial (low job control and poor social support) characteristics one by one, and the sets of these factors. RESULTS: Moderate consumption was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes after controlling for health and lifestyle (OR=0.47; 95% CI: 0.29-0.79) and psychosocial factors (OR=0.40; 95% CI: 0.22-0.79) when compared to non-drinkers. When adjusting for socioeconomic factors, there was still an inverse but non-significant association (OR=0.59; 95% CI: 0.35-1.00). In those with high occupational position, there was no significant association between moderate consumption and type 2 diabetes after adjusting for socioeconomic (OR=0.67; 95% CI: 0.3-1.52), health and lifestyle (OR=0.70; 95% CI: 0.32-1.5), and psychosocial factors (OR=0.75; 95% CI: 0.23-2.46). On the contrary, in those with low occupational position, ORs decreased from 0.55 (95% CI: 0.28-1.1) to 0.35 (95% CI: 0.15-0.82) when adjusting for psychosocial factors, a decrease that was solely due to low job control. HED did not influence any of these associations. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, after adjusting for HED, health and lifestyle, and psychosocial characteristics. The association was inverse but non-significant after adjusting for socioeconomic factors. When stratified by occupational position, there was an inverse association only in those with low occupational position and after adjusting for low job control.

Hälsoutvecklingen i Stockholm bättre än i övriga landet - Jämförelse av hälsoläget utifrån globala sjukdomsbördeprojektet.

Previous studies in Sweden have focused on a number of indicators to assess and compare health conditions at regional levels over time. In this study we aimed to give a more complete picture of the health situation in Stockholm County compared to the rest of Sweden, by using the DALY measure (disability-adjusted life years). DALY combines life lost to premature death (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) in one measure, and also allow comparisons of fatal and non-fatal conditions. This approach reveals that low back and neck pain and ischemic heart disease dominated the disease burden in 2015. Moreover, the health progress in Stockholm County has been better than the rest of Sweden since 1990, and the main reason is the decrease in premature death (YLL). This can partly be explained by a decrease in risk factors such as unhealthy diets, high blood pressure, tobacco smoking, high BMI and physical inactivity. The development of YLD has been relatively constant since 1990 in both Stockholm County and the rest of Sweden, implying that Sweden has been more successful in preventing death than reducing disability.

Alcohol-attributed disease burden and alcohol policies in the BRICS-countries during the years 1990-2013.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributed disease burden by DALYs (disability adjusted life years) in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) between 1990 and 2013, and explore to what extent these countries have implemented evidence-based alcohol policies during the same time period. METHODS: A comparative risk assessment approach and literature review, within a setting of the BRICS countries. Participants were the total populations (males and females combined) of each country. Levels of alcohol consumption, age-standardized alcohol-attributable DALYs per 100 000 and alcohol policy documents were measured. RESULTS: The alcohol-attributed disease burden mirrors level of consumption in Brazil, Russia and India, to some extent in China, but not in South Africa. Between the years 1990-2013 DALYs per 100 000 decreased in Brazil (from 2124 to 1902), China (from 1719 to 1250) and South Africa (from 2926 to 2662). An increase was observed in Russia (from 4015 to 4719) and India (from 1574 to 1722). Policies were implemented in all of the BRICS countries and the most common were tax increases, drink-driving measures and restrictions on advertisement. CONCLUSIONS: There was an overall decrease in alcohol-related DALYs in Brazil, China and South Africa, while an overall increase was observed in Russia and India. Most notably is the change in DALYs in Russia, where a distinct increase from 1990-2005 was followed by a steady decrease from 2005-2013. Even if assessment of causality cannot be done, policy changes were generally followed by changes in alcohol-attributed disease burden. This highlights the importance of more detailed research on this topic.

[The global burden of disease has both decreased and increased. The update of the global disease burden project is now complete]. / Den globala sjukdomsbördan har både minskat och ökat - Uppdateringen av det globala sjukdomsbördeprojektet är nu klar.

In a special issue of the Lancet, an update of the Global Burden of Disease project has been presented, covering the period 1980-2015, with results from 195 countries in the world. 1800 experts from all over the world have helped in collecting and reviewing data. Mortality, disability, contribution of risk factors, and fulfilment of the Sustainable Goals have been analyzed. With data now available on the web the results give valuable information for analysis and policy development in countries and regions.

Disease burden attributed to alcohol: How methodological advances in the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study have changed the estimates in Sweden.

AIM: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study continuously refines its estimates as new data and methods become available. In the latest iteration of the study, GBD 2013, changes were made related to the disease burden attributed to alcohol. The aim of this study was to briefly present these changes and to compare the disease burden attributed to alcohol in Swedish men and women in 2010 using previous and updated methods. METHODS: In the GBD study, the contribution of alcohol to the burden of disease is estimated by theoretically assessing how much of the disease burden can be avoided by reducing the consumption of alcohol to zero. The updated methods mainly consider improved measurements of alcohol consumption, including less severe alcohol dependence, assigning the most severe injuries and removing the protective effect of drinking on cardiovascular diseases if combined with binge drinking. RESULTS: The overall disease burden attributed to alcohol in 2010 increased by 14% when using the updated methods. Women accounted for this overall increase, mainly because the updated methods led to an overall higher alcohol consumption in women. By contrast, the overall burden decreased in men, one reason being the lower overall alcohol consumption with the new methods. In men, the inclusion of less severe alcohol dependence resulted in a large decrease in the alcohol attributed disease burden. This was, however, evened out to a great extent by the increase in cardiovascular disease and injuries. CONCLUSIONS WHEN USING THE UPDATED GBD METHODS, THE OVERALL DISEASE BURDEN ATTRIBUTED TO ALCOHOL INCREASED IN WOMEN, BUT NOT IN MEN.

Alcohol-attributed disease burden in four Nordic countries: a comparison using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2013 study.

AIMS: (1) To compare alcohol-attributed disease burden in four Nordic countries 1990-2013, by overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and separated by premature mortality [years of life lost (YLL)] and health loss to non-fatal conditions [years lived with disability (YLD)]; (2) to examine whether changes in alcohol consumption informs alcohol-attributed disease burden; and (3) to compare the distribution of disease burden separated by causes. DESIGN: A comparative risk assessment approach. SETTING: Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland. PARTICIPANTS: Male and female populations of each country. MEASUREMENTS: Age-standardized DALYs, YLLs and YLDs per 100 000 with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: In Finland, with the highest burden over the study period, overall alcohol-attributed DALYs were 1616 per 100 000 in 2013, while in Norway, with the lowest burden, corresponding estimates were 634. DALYs in Denmark were 1246 and in Sweden 788. In Denmark and Finland, changes in consumption generally corresponded to changes in disease burden, but not to the same extent in Sweden and Norway. All countries had a similar disease pattern and the majority of DALYs were due to YLLs (62-76%), mainly from alcohol use disorder, cirrhosis, transport injuries, self-harm and violence. YLDs from alcohol use disorder accounted for 41% and 49% of DALYs in Denmark and Finland compared to 63 and 64% in Norway and Sweden 2013, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Finland and Denmark has a higher alcohol-attributed disease burden than Sweden and Norway in the period 1990-2013. Changes in consumption levels in general corresponded to changes in harm in Finland and Denmark, but not in Sweden and Norway for some years. All countries followed a similar pattern. The majority of disability-adjusted life years were due to premature mortality. Alcohol use disorder by non-fatal conditions accounted for a higher proportion of disability-adjusted life years in Norway and Sweden, compared with Finland and Denmark.

Cannabis use, depression and anxiety: A 3-year prospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Whether or not cannabis use may increase the risk for depression and/or anxiety is not clear. For one thing, it has not been possible to draw a definitive conclusion regarding the direction of causality, i.e. whether cannabis use increases the risk for depression/anxiety or vice versa. This study aimed at examining possible associations between cannabis use, depression and anxiety, using all three measures as both exposure and outcome. METHODS: Data were obtained from a longitudinal cohort study comprising 8598 Swedish men and women, aged 20-64, with a three-year-follow-up. RESULTS: Adjusted for sex and age, cannabis use at baseline was associated with an increased relative risk (RR) for depression and anxiety at follow-up, with RR=1.22 [1.06-1.42 Cl 95%] for depression and RR=1.38 [1.26-1.50 Cl 95%] for anxiety. Adjusted for all confounders (alcohol and illicit drug use, education, family tension, place of upbringing), the associations were no longer statistically significant; RR=0.99 [0.82-1.17 Cl 95%] for depression and RR=1.09 [0.98-1.20 Cl 95%] for anxiety. Age-adjusted, reporting depression or anxiety at baseline increased the risk of cannabis onset at follow-up three years later; RR=1.62 [1.28-2.03 CI 95%] and RR=1.63 [1.28-2.08 CI 95%] respectively. However, adjusted for other illicit drug use the associations were no longer statistically significant. LIMITATIONS: Lack of information on frequency of cannabis use and of age of initiation of use. CONCLUSIONS: We found no longitudinal associations between cannabis use and incidence of depression/anxiety, or between depression/anxiety and later cannabis use onset.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.