Estimating the total incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2050: a global simulation-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence have found large variations in reported incidence around the world. However, it is unclear whether these reported incidence levels are impacted by differences in country health systems and possible underdiagnosis and if so, to what degree. The aim of this study was to estimate both the total and diagnosed incidence of type 1 diabetes globally and to project childhood type 1 diabetes incidence indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country. METHODS: We developed the type 1 diabetes global microsimulation model to simulate the natural history and diagnosis of type 1 diabetes for children and adolescents (aged 0-19 years) in 200 countries and territories, accounting for variability in underlying incidence and health system performance. The model follows an open population of children and adolescents in monthly intervals and simulates type 1 diabetes incidence and progression, as well as health system factors which influence diagnosis. We calibrated the model to published data on type 1 diabetes incidence, autoantibody profiles, and proportion of cases diagnosed with diabetic ketoacidosis from 1990 to 2020 and assessed the predictive accuracy using a randomly sampled test set of data withheld from calibration. FINDINGS: We estimate that in 2021 there were 355 900 (95% UI 334 200-377 300) total new cases of type 1 diabetes globally among children and adolescents, of which 56% (200 400 cases, 95% UI 180 600-219 500) were diagnosed. Estimated underdiagnosis varies substantially by region, with over 95% of new cases diagnosed in Australia and New Zealand, western and northern Europe, and North America, but less than 35% of new cases diagnosed in west Africa, south and southeastern Asia, and Melanesia. The total number of incident childhood cases of type 1 diabetes is projected to increase to 476 700 (95% UI 449 500-504 300) in 2050. INTERPRETATION: Our research indicates that the total global incidence of childhood and adolescent type 1 diabetes is larger than previously estimated, with nearly one-in-two children currently undiagnosed. Policymakers should plan for adequate diagnostic and medical capacity to improve timely type 1 diabetes detection and treatment, particularly as incidence is projected to increase worldwide, with highest numbers of new cases in Africa. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk.

The yield of chest X-ray based versus symptom-based screening among patients with diabetes mellitus in public health facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Background: Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) are at increased risk of developing TB, but the best screening algorithm for early detection and treatment of TB remains unknown. Our objective was to determine if combining routine chest X-ray screening could have a better yield compared with symptom-based screening alone. Methods: We conducted this cross-sectional study between September 2020 and September 2021 in 26 public health facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. All DM patients attending the clinics during the study period were offered chest X-ray and symptom screening simultaneously followed by confirmatory Xpert testing. We analyzed the number and proportion of patients with TB by the diagnostic algorithm category and performed binary logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of TB diagnosis. Results: Of 7394 patients screened, 54.6 % were female, and their median age was 53 years. Type-2 diabetes accounted for 89.6 % of all participants of the patients. Of 172 symptomatic patients, chest X-ray suggested TB in 19, and 11 of these were confirmed to have TB (8 bacterilogicially confirmed and 3 clinically diagnosed). Only 2 of the 152 asymptomatic patients without X-ray findings had TB (both bacteriologically confirmed). X-ray was not done for one patient. On the other hand, 28 of 7222 symptom-negative patients had X-ray findings suggestive of TB, and 7 of these were subsequently confirmed with TB (6 clinically diagnosed). When combined with 8 patients who were on treatment for TB at the time of the screening, the overall point prevalence of TB was 380 per 100,000. The direct cost associated with the X-ray-based screening was 42-times higher. Conclusion: Chest X-ray led to detection of about a third of TB patients which otherwise would have been missed but the algorithm is more expensive. Its full cost implication needs further economic evaluation.

High rates of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus among patients with active tuberculosis in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes mellitus (DM) have negative synergistic impact on each other. Global guidelines recommend collaborative efforts to address this synergy, but implementation has been slow. Part of the reason is lack of adequate evidence on the operational feasibility of existing tools and mechanisms of collaboration. The objective of this study was to assess the yield of DM screening among TB patients using risk scoring tools combined with blood tests as a feasible strategy for early detection to improve TB/DM treatment outcomes. Methods: Between September 2020 and December 2021, we conducted a cross-sectional study among patients receiving TB treatment in public health facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Trained health workers collected data on symptoms and risk scoring checklists before testing for random and fasting blood glucose levels. We used logistic regression analyses techniques to determine factors associated with increased DM detection. A receiver-operating characteristic curve was constructed to determine the performance of the risk scoring checklist. Results: Of 2381 TB patients screened, 197 (8.3%) had DM of which 48.7% were newly diagnosed. Having a family history of DM predicted DM with Odds Ratio (OR) of 5.36 (95% Confidence Interval, [3.67, 7.83]) followed by age ≥ 45 years (OR = 4.64, [3.18, 6.76]). Having one or more "symptoms" of DM was a significant predictor (OR 2.88, 95% CI, 2.06-4.01). Combining risk scores with symptoms predicted DM diagnosis with sensitivity of 94.7%, but specificity was low at 29.4%. In patients with known treatment outcome status, death rate was high. Conclusions: Almost a half of TB patients with DM did not know their status. A simple tool that combined risk factors with symptoms accurately predicted a subsequent diagnosis of DM. Such tools can help avoid high rates of death among TB patients suffering from DM through early detection.

Impact of medication therapy management service on selected clinical and humanistic outcomes in the ambulatory diabetes patients of Tikur Anbessa Specialist Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) patients are at increased risk of developing drug therapy problems (DTPs). The patients had a variety of comorbidities and complications, and they were given multiple medications. Medication therapy management (MTM) is a distinct service or group of services that optimize therapeutic outcomes for individual patients. The study assessed the impact of provision of MTM service on selected clinical and humanistic outcomes of diabetes patients at the diabetes mellitus clinic of Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH). METHODS: A pre-post interventional study design was carried out at DM clinic from July 2018 to April 2019. The intervention package included identifying and resolving drug therapy problems, counseling patients in person at the clinic or through telephone calls, and providing educational materials for six months. This was followed by four months of post-intervention assessment of clinical outcomes, DTPs, and treatment satisfaction. The interventions were provided by pharmacist in collaboration with physician and nurse. The study included all adult patients who had been diagnosed for diabetes (both type I & II) and had been taking anti-diabetes medications for at least three months. Patients with gestational diabetes, those who decided to change their follow-up clinic, and those who refused to participate in the study were excluded. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Descriptive statistics, t-test, and logistic regressions were performed for data analyses. RESULTS: Of the 423 enrolled patients, 409 fulfilled the criteria and included in the final data analysis. The intervention showed a decrease in average hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fasting blood sugar (FBS), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) by 0.92%, 25.04 mg/dl, and 6.62 mmHg, respectively (p<0.05). The prevalence of DTPs in the pre- and post-intervention of MTM services was found to be 72.9% and 26.2%, respectively (p<0.001). The overall mean score of treatment satisfaction was 90.1(SD, 11.04). Diabetes patients of age below 40 years (92.84 (SD, 9.54)), type-I DM (93.04 (SD, 9.75)) & being on one medication regimen (93.13(SD, 9.17)) had higher satisfaction score (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Provision of MTM service had a potential to reduce DTPs, improve the clinical parameters, and treatment satisfaction in the post-intervention compared to the pre-intervention phase.

Effect of iron deficiency anemia on HbA1c in diabetic patients at Tikur Anbessa specialized teaching hospital, Addis Ababa Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) is the predominant hemoglobin found in HbA1 fractions. A1c assay is the recommended assay for diagnosing diabetes and any condition that changes red cell turnover such as Iron deficiency Anemia (IDA), will lead to spurious A1C results. Therefore, the present study was aimed at determining the effect of IDA on HbA1c in diabetic patients attending Black Lion Specialized Teaching Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A facility based comparative cross sectional study was conducted on 174 diabetic patients (87 with IDA and 87 without IDA) from April to July 2016. Socio demographic data and clinical conditions were collected using structured questionnaire. Venous blood was collected for performing Complete blood count (CBC) using Cell dyn 1800 hematology analyzer; Serum ferritin, performed by COBAS INTEGRA 400/800 Chemistry analyzer and HbA1c tests, performed by COBAS C 111 analyzer. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 21 software. Pearson's correlation, chi-square, and independent t-tests were calculated. The data was presented as mean ± SD. A P-value of < 0.05 was taken as statistically significant. RESULTS: Mean hemoglobin (Hgb), hematocrit (HCT), Mean cell volume (MCV), mean cell hemoglobin (MCH), mean cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were lower in IDA group compared to non-IDA diabetic patients. HbA1c (%) level was significantly lower in IDA group (6.18 ± 1.57) compared with the non-IDA diabetic patients (7.74 ± 1.81) (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: HbA1c is significantly lower in diabetic patients with IDA compared to the non-IDA diabetic patients. Therefore, the authors believe that monitoring these patients using only HbA1c could be misleading, hence physicians and health care providers should take this into account before making any therapeutic decision. Detailed examination including large number of participants employing advanced laboratory techniques is recommended.

Islet cell-associated autoantibodies in Ethiopians with diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Our understanding of the role of autoimmunity in the pathogenesis of diabetes in African populations is limited. This study aims to evaluate the prevalence of 4 different islet cell-associated antibodies in Ethiopian patients with diabetes and non-diabetic controls. METHODS: A total of 187 subjects from a diabetic clinic at an Ethiopian hospital were evaluated in a cross-sectional study. Fifty-five patients had type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), 86 had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and 46 were non-diabetic controls. Islet cell-associated antibodies were measured using 4 different assays for antibodies against islet cells (ICA), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), insulin (IAA) and the protein tyrosine phosphatase-like IA-2 (IA-2A). RESULTS: Comparing the antibody positivity in subjects with T1DM versus T2DM, the results were as follows: 29% versus 3.5% for GADA; 21% versus 2.7% for ICA; 27% versus 16% for IAA. In the control group, the only positive result was for IAA at 2%. IA-2A was absent in all groups. The combi-assay for GADA and IA-2A detected all GADA-positive subjects. T2DM patients who were GADA positive had lower BMI, lower C-peptide levels and all of them were on insulin therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to Caucasians, Ethiopians with T1DM have less prevalence of islet cell-associated antibodies, but the rates are higher than in T2DM. GADA is present in Ethiopians, whereas IA-2A seems to be absent. GADA positivity in T2DM correlates with clinical features of T1DM, indicating the existence in Ethiopia of the subgroup, latent autoimmune diabetes in adults.

The prevalence, clinical features and management of periphral neuropathy among diabetic patients in Tikur Anbessa and St. Paul's Specialized University Hospitals, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Neuropathy is one of the common chronic complications of diabetes. There are many forms of diabetic neuropathy, one of which is distal symmetric polyneuropathy (DSP). There are only few data on diabetic neuropathy in Ethiopia. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of peripheral neuropathy, describe the clinical features, identify risk factors and treatment of neuropathy among diabetic patients. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted at Tikur-Anbessa (TASH) and St. Paul's Specialized (SPH) University Hospitals in Addis Ababa. A total of 384 diabetic patients were selected using systematic random sampling method taking every third patients from clinics attendees from December 2009 to February 2010. Data were collected using structured questionnaires containing sociodemographic data, risk factors and UK neuropathy screening test score, Neurological examination for pain, Achilles tendon reflex, Vibration, and temperature. RESULTS: A total of 176 males and 208 females were included, 27% were type 1 and 73% were type 2 diabetic patients. The overall prevalence of distal symmetrical polyneuropathy (DSP) was 48.2% (53.6% in type 2 and 33.3% in type 1 diabetic patients). DSP was present in 37% of patient with duration of diabetes < 5yrs and 53% of those with diabetic duration > 10yrs. Autonomic neuropathy was identified in 30% of patients. Out of 185 patients with peripheral Neuropathy 136 (77%) had moderate and severe symptom scores; while 101 (58%) had moderate and severe sign scores. Type of Diabetes, duration of diabetes, systolic hypertension, and age were significantly associated with DSP (p < 0.05). Amitriptylline in 14 (28.6%), Carbamazepine in 4 (8.2%), and other NSAIDs 7 (12.2%) were used for treatment of painful neuropathy. CONCLUSIONS: Distal symmetrical polyneuropathy is common. The commonest presenting features are pain and loss of sensation. Duration of diabetes 10yrs, type 2 D, old age and hypertension were the major risk factors for DSP. Treatment of painful diabetic neuropathy was not optimal. RECOMMENDATIONSs: We recommend strengthening of routine screening for neuropathy, to emphasis on foot ulcer risk reduction, management of co-morbidities like hypertension and dyslipidemia, to optimize treatment of painful neuropathy.