How long does it take patients to find a new primary care physician when theirs retires: a population-based, longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The retirement of a family physician can represent a challenge in accessibility and continuity of care for patients. In this population-based, longitudinal cohort study, we assess whether and how long it takes for patients to find a new majority source of primary care (MSOC) when theirs retires, and we investigate the effect of demographic and clinical characteristics on this process. METHODS: We used provincial health insurance records to identify the complete cohort of patients whose majority source of care left clinical practice in either 2007/2008 or 2008/2009 and then calculated the number of days between their last visit with their original MSOC and their first visit with their new one. We compared the clinical and sociodemographic characteristics of patients who did and did not find a new MSOC in the three years following their original physician's retirement using Chi-square and Fisher's exact test. We also used Cox proportional hazards models to determine the adjusted association between patient age, sex, socioeconomic status, location and morbidity level (measured using Johns Hopkins' Aggregated Diagnostic Groupings), and time to finding a new primary care physician. We produce survival curves stratified by patient age, sex, income and morbidity. RESULTS: Fifty-four percent of patients found a new MSOC within the first 12 months following their physician's retirement. Six percent of patients still had not found a new physician after 36 months. Patients who were older and had higher levels of morbidity were more likely to find a new MSOC and found one faster than younger, healthier patients. Patients located in more urban regional health authorities also took longer to find a new MSOC compared to those in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care physician retirements represent a potential threat to accessibility; patients followed in this study took more than a year on average to find a new MSOC after their physician retired. Providing programmatic support to retiring physicians and their patients, as well as addressing shortages of longitudinal primary care more broadly could help to ensure smoother retirement transitions.

Regional differences in where and how family medicine residents intend to practise: a cross-sectional survey analysis.

BACKGROUND: Family medicine residents choose among a range of practice options as they enter the physician workforce. We describe the demographic and personal characteristics of Canadian family medicine residents and examine differences in the intentions of residents from Ontario, Quebec, Western Canada and Atlantic Canada at the completion of their training, in terms of practice comprehensiveness, organizational model, clinical domains, practice settings and populations served. METHODS: We analyzed national survey data collected by the College of Family Physicians of Canada and 16 university-based family medicine residency programs. We tabulated bivariable descriptive results and used logistic regression to estimate odds of practice intentions across regions, adjusting for family medicine resident characteristics. RESULTS: Of 1680 respondents (61.5% of 2731 family medicine residents invited to participate), 66.3% (n = 1095) reported it was somewhat or highly likely they would commit to providing comprehensive care to the same group of patients within their first 3 years of practice. This percentage varied from 40.3% in Atlantic Canada to 85.1% in Ontario. In addition, 31.5% (n = 522) reported it was somewhat or highly likely they would focus only on specific clinical areas. Most respondents reported it was somewhat or highly likely that they would practise in a group physician practice (93.8%) or interprofessional team-based practice (88.1%), and only 7.7% expected to have a solo practice. INTERPRETATION: Intentions for comprehensive and focused practice varied, but over 80% of family medicine residents indicated they intended to practise in a team-based model in all regions. Policy-makers and workforce planners should consider the impact of family medicine residents' intentions on policy objectives.

Will the Real Physician Retirees Please Stand Up?

Policy makers and health workforce planners rely on counts of practice licences as a measure of the size of the active physician workforce. We use a population-based approach to correlate estimates of retirement from clinical care based on these data with those produced using physician payment data. We find that licensure data generates per-capita estimates of physician supply in British Columbia that are substantially higher than activity-based estimates. Licensure data are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of the timing and extent of physician retirement and therefore should not be used as the primary basis for estimating current or future physician supply.

Patterns of physician retirement and pre-retirement activity: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Knowing when physicians retire and how they practise in the pre-retirement years is important information for health human resource planning. We identified patterns of retirement for physicians in British Columbia and the determinants of when and how physicians retire. METHODS: For this population-based retrospective cohort study, we used administrative data to examine activity levels and to identify retirements among BC's practising physicians. We included all physicians who were at least 50 years of age as of March 2006 and who had received payments for clinical services in at least 1 year between 2005/06 and 2011/12. We defined retirement as a permanent drop in monthly payments to less than $1667/month ($20 000/yr). We examined the patterns and timing of retirement by age, sex, specialty and location using linear and logistic regression models. RESULTS: Of the 4572 physicians who met the inclusion criteria, 1717 (37.6%) retired during the study period. The average age at retirement was 65.1 (standard deviation 7.8) years. Controlling for other demographic and practice characteristics, we found that women and physicians working in rural areas retired earlier, by 4.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] -4.9 to -3.2) years and 2.3 (95% CI -3.4 to -1.1) years, respectively. We found no difference in retirement age by specialty. We identified 4 patterns of pre-retirement activity: slow decline, rapid decline, maintenance and increasing activity. About 40% of physicians (440/1107) reduced their activity levels by at least 10% in the 3 years preceding retirement. INTERPRETATION: During the study period, physicians in BC - particularly women and those in rural areas - retired earlier than indicated by licensure and survey data. Many physicians reduced their practice activity in the pre-retirement years. These trends indicate that forecasts relying on licensure "head counts" are likely overestimating current and future physician supply.