Estimating smoking-attributable lung cancer mortality in Chinese adults from 2000 to 2020: a comparison of three methods.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a significant public health concern in China and a leading cause of lung cancer deaths among adults. This study aims to employ three methods to estimate smoking-attributable lung cancer mortality among Chinese adults from 2000 to 2020. METHODS: Population attributable fractions (PAFs) of lung cancer deaths caused by smoking were estimated using lagged smoking prevalence, Peto-Lopez, and dose-response relationship methods, separately. Smoking exposure was obtained from national tobacco surveys in China, and relative risks (RR) were derived from a meta-analysis of state-of-the-art studies among the Chinese population. Finally, we estimated the sex- and age-stratified smoking-attributable lung cancer deaths in Chinese population in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. RESULTS: The PAFs estimated using 5- and 10-year lagged smoking prevalence method (45-47%) and Peto-Lopez method (46-47%) were similar, while PAFs calculated using the dose-response method were highest (47-58%). The PAFs were consistently higher in males than in females. Age-specific PAFs estimated by lagged smoking prevalence method (54-60%) and the Peto-Lopez method (57-61%) in males were similar and relatively stable, with slight decreases in older populations, while the dose-response relationship-based PAFs increased with age and fluctuated by year. By using the above methods, smoking-attributable lung cancer deaths were estimated to be 134,100, 134,600, 136,600, and 155,300 in 2000 increasing to 310,300, 301,100, 306,000, and 314,700 in 2020, respectively. CONCLUSION: The estimation from dose-response methods could better reflect the smoking effect, however, high-quality data and accurate estimation of parameters are necessary.

Dose-response relationship between active smoking and lung cancer mortality/prevalence in the Chinese population: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The dose‒response relationship-based relative risk (RR) of smoking exposure could better predict the risk of lung cancer than the dichotomous RR. To date, there is a lack of large-scale representative studies illustrating the dose‒response relationship between smoking exposure and lung cancer deaths, and no study has systematically pooled the current evidence in the Chinese population. OBJECTIVES: To elucidate the dose‒response relationship of smoking and the risk of lung cancer mortality in the Chinese population. METHODS: Data were derived from studies on dose‒response relationships of smoking exposure and the risk of lung cancer among Chinese adults published before June 30th, 2021. Based on smoking exposure indicators and RR of lung cancer mortality, a series of dose‒response relationship models were developed. For smokers, 10 models were built to fit the dose‒response relationships between pack-years and RR of lung cancer deaths. For quitters, quit-years and corresponding RRs were used, and the pooled dichotomous RR value was used as the starting point to avoid overestimation. Finally, the results were compared with the estimates from 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. RESULTS: A total of 12 studies were included. Among 10 dose‒response relationship models of pack-years with the RR of lung cancer mortality, the integrated-exposure-response (IER) model achieved the best fit. In all models, less than 60 pack-years presented RRs below 10. For former smokers, the RR decreased to 1 when quit-years reached up to 7 years. Both smokers and quitters had much lower RRs than that of the global level estimated by GBD. CONCLUSION: The risk of lung cancer mortality rose with pack-years and decreased with quit-years among Chinese adults, and both values were far below global level. The results suggested that the dose-response RR of lung cancer deaths associated with smoking in China should be estimated separately.

Gini coefficient decomposition-based and mortality-rate-difference-based description of mortality causes in the Chinese population from 1991 to 2019: a retrospective cross-sectional surveillance study.

OBJECTIVES: Improved national Disease Surveillance Points systems (DSPs) in China have clarified mortality causes in the Chinese population. This study aimed to investigate the variations and drivers of multiple mortality causes. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cross-sectional surveillance study. SETTING: Original data in 1991 and 2000, and secondary data in 2010 and 2019 were collected from DSPs across China. PARTICIPANTS: Standardised mortality rates (SMRs) and crude mortality rates (CMRs) of the Chinese population in 1991, 2000, 2010 and 2019 were ascertained. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in the Gini coefficients (G), computed using SMR, were decomposed into reranking (R) and proportionality (P) to identify variations in communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases (CMNN); non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injury. The CMR difference (in %) was partitioned into the demographic structure and non-demographic factors using the mortality-rate-difference method. RESULTS: From 1991 to 2019, the overall CMR increased from 591.327/100 000 to 674.505/100 000, whereas the SMR continually decreased. An increasing concentration of NCDs contributed to the increased all-cause G from 0.443 to 0.560 during 1991-2019. Between 1991 and 2019, compared with CMNN (R=0.054) and NCDs (R=0.037), the ranking of injury changed the most (R=0.174). The ranking of diabetes, falls and road traffic accidents increased markedly over time. The decreased SMR of NCDs (P=-0.013) was mainly due to low-ranking causes, whereas changes in CMNN (P=0.003) and injury (P=0.131) were due to high-ranking causes. All-cause CMR increased by 14.06% from 1991 to 2019 due to greater contributions from the demographic structure (68.46%) than the non-demographic factors (-54.40%). Demographic structural changes accounted more for CMR increases in males (70.52%) and urban populations (75.58%). CONCLUSIONS: Prevention and control measures targeting NCDs and specific causes are imperatively needed, and should be strengthened as the population ages, especially for males and rural populations.

Association between the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among Chinese elderly: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging.

OBJECTIVE: Time-dependent covariates are generally available as longitudinal data were collected periodically in the cohort study. To examine whether time-dependent triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio could predict the future risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and assess its potential impact on the risk of T2DM incidence. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study enrolled 1460 participants without T2DM aged 55 or above in 1992 in the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging during 25 years. The questionnaire data were collected in nine surveys from 1992 to 2017. Physical examination and blood laboratory tests including TG and HDL-C concentrations were measured in five surveys. Incident T2DM cases were confirmed via a self-reported history of T2DM or the fasting plasma glucose level. RESULTS: 119 new cases of T2DM were identified. In the Cox regression analysis with time-dependent TG/HDL-C ratios and covariates, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of T2DM incidence were 1.90 (1.12 to 3.23), 2.75 (1.58 to 4.80) and 2.84 (1.69 to 4.77), respectively, for those with TG/HDL-C ratios (both TG and HDL-C were expressed in millimole per liter) in the ranges of 0.87-1.30, 1.31-1.74 and ≥1.75, compared with individuals with TG/HDL-C ratios <0.87. The similar results of subdistribution hazard ratios were obtained by performing the Fine-Gray model with time-dependent TG/HDL-C ratios. This positive association and the statistically significant trend with increased risk of T2DM incidence in the three categories of elevated TG/HDL-C ratio was confirmed by multiple sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, the T2DM discriminatory power of TG/HDL-C ratio combining with other risk factors was moderately high. CONCLUSIONS: We found that time-dependent TG/HDL-C ratios were positively associated with the risk of T2DM risk. The elevated TG/HDL-C ratios increased the future risk of T2DM incidence. Lowering the TG/HDL-C ratio could assist in the prevention of diabetes for older adults.

Obesity-Related Genetic Variants and Hyperuricemia Risk in Chinese Men.

Objective: Obesity/metabolic syndrome and hyperuricemia are clinically associated; however, the association of obesity/metabolic syndrome-related genetic variants with hyperuricemia is not clear. Therefore, we assessed this association in Chinese men diagnosed with hyperuricemia in comparison to a non-hyperuricemia group. Methods: We genotyped 47 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously identified to be associated with obesity or metabolic syndrome in 474 adult males (aged ≥ 18 years) using multiplex polymerase chain reaction. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate the association between the genetic variations and hyperuricemia. Stratified analyses were applied to further assess the associations. Results: The obesity-related SNP in MSRA rs545854 significantly affected serum uric acid levels. In addition, the G-allele of rs545854 was positively associated with the risk of hyperuricemia [odds ratio (OR) = 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.19-6.64, P = 0.0188]. After adjusting the model for body mass index and central obesity, rs545854 was shown to be an independent factor increasing the risk of hyperuricemia (OR = 2.81, 95%CI = 1.18-6.70, P = 0.0196). Stratified analyses also showed a significant association between rs545854 and hyperuricemia among meat eaters (OR = 2.62, 95%CI = 1.09-6.26, P = 0.0308). Conclusion: The obesity-related SNP rs545854 was correlated with the serum uric acid level and risk of hyperuricemia in a male Chinese population. Therefore, men carrying this SNP could benefit from limiting their meat consumption to prevent hyperuricemia. These findings suggest an underlying genetic link between obesity and hyperuricemia worthy of further exploration.