Trajectories toward maximum power and inequality in resource distribution networks.

Resource distribution networks are the infrastructure facilitating the flow of resources in both biotic and abiotic systems. Both theoretical and empirical arguments have proposed that physical systems self-organise to maximise power production, but how this trajectory is related to network development, especially regarding the heterogeneity of resource distribution in explicitly spatial networks, is less understood. Quantifying the heterogeneity of resource distribution is necessary for understanding how phenomena such as economic inequality or energetic niches emerge across socio-ecological and environmental systems. Although qualitative discussions have been put forward on this topic, to date there has not been a quantitative analysis of the relationship between network development, maximum power, and inequality. This paper introduces a theoretical framework and applies it to simulate the power consumption and inequality in generalised, spatially explicit resource distribution networks. The networks illustrate how increasing resource flows amplify inequality in power consumption at network end points, due to the spatial heterogeneity of the distribution architecture. As increasing resource flows and the development of hierarchical branching can both be strategies for increasing power consumption, this raises important questions about the different outcomes of heterogeneous distribution in natural versus human-engineered networks, and how to prioritise equity of distribution in the latter.

Neural network integration of field observations for soil endocrine disruptor characterisation.

A neural network approach was used to predict the presence and concentration of a range of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs), based on field observations. Soil sample concentrations of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) and site environmental characteristics, drawn from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland (NSIS) database, were used. Neural network models were trained to predict soil EDC concentrations using field observations for 184 sites. The results showed that presence/absence and concentration of several of the EDCs, mostly no longer in production, could be predicted with some accuracy. We were able to predict concentrations of seven of 31 compounds with r(2) values greater than 0.25 for log-normalised values and of eight with log-normalised predictions converted to a linear scale. Additional statistical analyses were carried out, including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Error (ME), Willmott's index of agreement, Percent Bias (PBIAS) and ratio of root mean square to standard deviation (RSR). These analyses allowed us to demonstrate that the neural network models were making meaningful predictions of EDC concentration. We identified the main predictive input parameters in each case, based on a sensitivity analysis of the trained neural network model. We also demonstrated the capacity of the method for predicting the presence and level of EDC concentration in the field, identified further developments required to make this process as rapid and operator-friendly as possible and discussed the potential value of a system for field surveys of soil composition.

Predicting land cover using GIS, Bayesian and evolutionary algorithm methods.

Modelling land cover change from existing land cover maps is a vital requirement for anyone wishing to understand how the landscape may change in the future. In order to test any land cover change model, existing data must be used. However, often it is not known which data should be applied to the problem, or whether relationships exist within and between complex datasets. Here we have developed and tested a model that applied evolutionary processes to Bayesian networks. The model was developed and tested on a dataset containing land cover information and environmental data, in order to show that decisions about which datasets should be used could be made automatically. Bayesian networks are amenable to evolutionary methods as they can be easily described using a binary string to which crossover and mutation operations can be applied. The method, developed to allow comparison with standard Bayesian network development software, was proved capable of carrying out a rapid and effective search of the space of possible networks in order to find an optimal or near-optimal solution for the selection of datasets that have causal links with one another. Comparison of land cover mapping in the North-East of Scotland was made with a commercial Bayesian software package, with the evolutionary method being shown to provide greater flexibility in its ability to adapt to incorporate/utilise available evidence/knowledge and develop effective and accurate network structures, at the cost of requiring additional computer programming skills. The dataset used to develop the models included GIS-based data taken from the Land Cover for Scotland 1988 (LCS88), Land Capability for Forestry (LCF), Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA), the soil map of Scotland and additional climatic variables.