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Healthcare researchers have been working on mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients with differing levels of severity. A rapid and reliable clinical evaluation of disease intensity will assist in the allocation and prioritization of mortality mitigation resources. The novelty of the work proposed in this paper is an early prediction model of high mortality risk for both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients, which provides state-of-the-art performance, in an external validation cohort from a different population. Retrospective research was performed on two separate hospital datasets from two different countries for model development and validation. In the first dataset, COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients were admitted to the emergency department in Boston (24 March 2020 to 30 April 2020), and in the second dataset, 375 COVID-19 patients were admitted to Tongji Hospital in China (10 January 2020 to 18 February 2020). The key parameters to predict the risk of mortality for COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients were identified and a nomogram-based scoring technique was developed using the top-ranked five parameters. Age, Lymphocyte count, D-dimer, CRP, and Creatinine (ALDCC), information acquired at hospital admission, were identified by the logistic regression model as the primary predictors of hospital death. For the development cohort, and internal and external validation cohorts, the area under the curves (AUCs) were 0.987, 0.999, and 0.992, respectively. All the patients are categorized into three groups using ALDCC score and death probability: Low (probability < 5%), Moderate (5% < probability < 50%), and High (probability > 50%) risk groups. The prognostic model, nomogram, and ALDCC score will be able to assist in the early identification of both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients with high mortality risk, helping physicians to improve patient management.
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INTRODUCTION: Water-pipe (WP) smoking is the most common method of tobacco consumption in the Middle-East and is rapidly spreading on a global scale. Although, water-pipe smoking is linked to various diseases, such as emphysema and various types of cancers, its effect on testosterone levels has yet to be investigated. This study explores the effect of water-pipe smoking on serum testosterone levels in males in Qatar. METHODS: In this cross-sectional sample within a cohort study, we retrieved data for a total of 1000 male volunteers from the Qatar BioBank (QBB) project. A self-reported questionnaire was used to determine the water-pipe smoking status of participants. Moreover, participants were stratified based on the frequency of smoking. Total testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) were measured clinically, whereas free testosterone and bioavailable testosterone were calculated using Vermeulen's equation. Hormone values of 541 males (277 water-pipe smokers and 264 non-smokers) were compared using multiple regression analysis based on water-pipe smoking status after adjusting for confounding factors. RESULTS: No statistically significant difference was observed between WP smokers and non-water-pipe smokers in the likelihood of having lower or higher total testosterone, after adjustment for confounding factors. Similar results were found in free testosterone, bioavailable testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin (all p>0.05). When compared with the reference group, both light and heavy water-pipe smokers had a similar likelihood of circulating low total testosterone levels (OR=0.83, 95% CI: 0.46-1.49; and OR=0.80, 95% CI: 0.43-1.49; respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal, for the first time, that there is no significant change in total testosterone, free testosterone, bioavailable testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin in waterpipe smokers compared to non-water-pipe smokers. Therefore, we believe that further studies are needed to confirm the effect of water-pipe smoking on testosterone in different populations.
