Population Alcohol Consumption as a Predictor of Alcohol-Specific Deaths: A Time-Series Analysis of Aggregate Data.

AIMS: The study examines whether the number of alcohol-specific deaths can be predicted by population total and/or beverage-specific alcohol consumption and if, how precisely. The data are annual series of spirits, wine, beer and total consumption and alcohol-specific deaths in Finland in the years 1969-2015. METHODS: We specify a Auto Regressive Distributed Lags model with cointegrated variables, to be used in prediction. In our model, the number of alcohol-specific deaths is the response variable, and log of spirits consumption and log of non-spirits consumption, are the explanatory variables. The response variable has one added annual lag and the explanatory variables have both four annual added lags in the model. RESULTS: In our data alcohol-specific deaths, log of spirits and log of non-spirits consumption are significantly cointegrated. The precision of the estimated model is good. The prediction results include prediction of the 2008 downturn in alcohol deaths, using the data from the years 1969-2004, forecasting the as yet unknown 2016 alcohol deaths on the basis of known values of alcohol consumption up to 2016, and forecasts of future (2017-2020) alcohol deaths from 2016 on. Forecasted effects of a proposed Finnish alcohol policy change, leading to six percent total consumption increase, are estimated. CONCLUSIONS: The number of alcohol-specific deaths can be predicted with an appropriate time-series regression model on the basis of population consumption. It is important to consider also beverage type because of the improved predictive power. The model is useful in an evaluation of proposed alcohol policy changes.

Predatory insects as bioindicators of heavy metal pollution.

Heavy metal concentrations of different predatory insects were studied near by a steel factory and from control sites. Waterstriders (Gerridae), dragon fly larvae (Odonata), antlion larvae (Myrmeleontidae) and ants (Formicidae) were analyzed by AAS. In most cases the metal concentrations were higher near the factory, but e.g. waterstriders had higher cadmium concentrations in control area. Discriminant analysis clearly reveals that all these insect groups can be used as heavy metal indicators. However, the commonly used ants were the least effective in indicating the differences between the factory and control sites. Waterstriders are good in detecting differences in iron and manganese, but seem to be poor in accumulating nickel and lead. Antlions are efficient in detecting differences in iron. Antlions and ants are effective in accumulating manganese; as well antlions are efficient in accumulating cadmium. Waterstriders are poor in accumulating lead, but antlions and ants are effective.

Validation of the Hygicult E dipslides method in surface hygiene control: a Nordic collaborative study.

A collaborative study with Enterobacteriaceae was conducted to validate Hygicult E dipslides by comparison with violet red bile glucose agar (VRBGA) contact plates and swabbing, using stainless steel surfaces artificially contaminated with microbes at various levels. Twelve laboratories participated in the validation procedure. The total number of collaborative samples was 108. The microbial level in each sample was assessed in triplicate by using the 3 above-mentioned methods. No Enterobacteriaceae were used at the low inoculation level. At the middle inoculation level, the percentages detached from the test surfaces were 16.6 with the Hygicult E method, 15.3 with the contact plate method, and 14.6 with swabbing; at the high innoculation level, the percentages were 14.5, 15.8, and 9.8, respectively. The percentage of acceptable results after the removal of outliers was 97.2. Repeatability relative standard deviations ranged from 33.4 to 44.9%; reproducibility relative standard deviations ranged from 45.2 to 77.1%. The Hygicult E dipslide, VRBGA contact plate, and swabbing methods gave similar results at all 3 microbial levels tested: <1.0 colony-forming units (CFU)/cm2 at the low level, 1.2-1.3 CFU/cm2 at the middle level (theoretical yield 8.0 CFU/cm2), and 1.2-2.0 CFU/cm2 at the high level (theoretical yield 12.5 CFU/cm2).