Population-Level Approaches to Preventing Type 2 Diabetes Globally.

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is increasingly considered an epidemic rooted in modern society as much as in individual behavior. Addressing the T2DM burden thus involves a dual approach, simultaneously addressing high-risk individuals and whole populations. Within this context, this article summarizes the evidence base, in terms of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, for population-level approaches to prevent T2DM: (1) modifications to the food environment; (2) modifications to the built environment and physical activity; and (3) programs and policies to address social and economic factors. Existing knowledge gaps are also discussed.

Long-term mortality among kidney transplant recipients with and without diabetes: a nationwide cohort study in the USA.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the role diabetes (type 1 (T1D) and type 2 (T2D)) plays in modifying prognosis among kidney transplant recipients. Here, we compare mortality among transplant recipients with T1D, T2D and non-diabetes-related end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included 254 188 first-time single kidney transplant recipients aged ≥18 years from the US Renal Data System (2000-2018). Diabetes status, as primary cause of ESKD, was defined using International Classification of Disease 9th and 10th Clinical Modification codes. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models (right-censored) computed risk of death associated with T1D and T2D relative to non-diabetes. Trends in standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) (2000-2017), relative to the general US population, were assessed using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: A total of 72 175 (28.4%) deaths occurred over a median survival time of 14.6 years. 5-year survival probabilities were 88%, 85% and 77% for non-diabetes, T1D and T2D, respectively. In adjusted models, mortality was highest for T1D (HR=1.95, (95% CI: 1.88 to 2.03)) and then T2D (1.65 (1.62 to 1.69)), as compared with non-diabetes. SMRs declined for non-diabetes, T1D, and T2D. However, in 2017, SMRs were 2.38 (2.31 to 2.45), 6.55 (6.07 to 7.06), and 3.82 (3.68 to 3.98), for non-diabetes, T1D and T2D, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In the USA, diabetes type is an important modifier in mortality risk among kidney transplant recipients with highest rates among people with T1D-related ESKD. Development of effective interventions that reduce excess mortality in transplant recipients with diabetes is needed, especially for T1D.

Sustained Lower Incidence of Diabetes-Related End-Stage Kidney Disease Among American Indians and Alaska Natives, Blacks, and Hispanics in the U.S., 2000-2016.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes-related end-stage kidney disease (ESKD-D) disproportionately affects U.S. racial/ethnic minority populations compared with whites. However, from 1996 to 2013, ESKD-D incidence among American Indians and Alaska Natives (AIANs) and blacks declined. We assessed recent ESKD-D incidence data to determine whether trends by race/ethnicity have changed since 2013. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: United States Renal Data System data from 2000 to 2016 were used to determine the number of whites, blacks, AIANs, Asians, and Hispanics aged ≥18 years with newly treated ESKD-D (with diabetes listed as primary cause). Using census population estimates as denominators, annual ESKD-D incidence rates were calculated and age adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends and estimate an average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence rates. RESULTS: For adults overall, from 2000 to 2016, age-adjusted ESKD-D incidence rates decreased by 53% for AIANs (66.7-31.2 per 100,000, AAPC -4.5%, P < 0.001), by 33% for Hispanics (50.0-33.3, -2.1%, P < 0.001), and by 20% for blacks (56.2-44.7, -1.6%, P < 0.001). However, during the study period, age-adjusted ESKD-D incidence rates did not change significantly for Asians and increased by 10% for whites (15.4-17.0, 0.6%, P = 0.01). In 2016, ESKD-D incidence rates in AIANs, Hispanics, and blacks were ∼2.0-2.5 times higher than whites. CONCLUSIONS: ESKD-D incidence declined for AIANs, Hispanics, and blacks and increased for whites. Continued efforts might be considered to reverse the trend in whites and sustain and lower ESKD-D incidence in the other populations.

Trends in Emergency Department Visits and Inpatient Admissions for Hyperglycemic Crises in Adults With Diabetes in the U.S., 2006-2015.

OBJECTIVE: To report U.S. national population-based rates and trends in diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state (HHS) among adults, in both the emergency department (ED) and inpatient settings. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data from 1 January 2006 through 30 September 2015 from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample and National Inpatient Sample to characterize ED visits and inpatient admissions with DKA and HHS. We used corresponding year cross-sectional survey data from the National Health Interview Survey to estimate the number of adults ≥18 years with diagnosed diabetes to calculate population-based rates for DKA and HHS in both ED and inpatient settings. Linear trends from 2009 to 2015 were assessed using Joinpoint software. RESULTS: In 2014, there were a total of 184,255 and 27,532 events for DKA and HHS, respectively. The majority of DKA events occurred in young adults aged 18-44 years (61.7%) and in adults with type 1 diabetes (70.6%), while HHS events were more prominent in middle-aged adults 45-64 years (47.5%) and in adults with type 2 diabetes (88.1%). Approximately 40% of the hyperglycemic events were in lower-income populations. Overall, event rates for DKA significantly increased from 2009 to 2015 in both ED (annual percentage change [APC] 13.5%) and inpatient settings (APC 8.3%). A similar trend was seen for HHS (APC 16.5% in ED and 6.3% in inpatient). The increase was in all age-groups and in both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Causes of increased rates of hyperglycemic events are unknown. More detailed data are needed to investigate the etiology and determine prevention strategies.

Cost-effectiveness of Diabetes Prevention Interventions Targeting High-risk Individuals and Whole Populations: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a systematic review of studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness (CE) of interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes (T2D) among high-risk individuals and whole populations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Interventions targeting high-risk individuals are those that identify people at high risk of developing T2D and then treat them with either lifestyle or metformin interventions. Population-based prevention strategies are those that focus on the whole population regardless of the level of risk, creating public health impact through policy implementation, campaigns, and other environmental strategies. We systematically searched seven electronic databases for studies published in English between 2008 and 2017. We grouped lifestyle interventions targeting high-risk individuals by delivery method and personnel type. We used the median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured in cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or cost saved to measure the CE of interventions. We used the $50,000/QALY threshold to determine whether an intervention was cost-effective or not. ICERs are reported in 2017 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: Our review included 39 studies: 28 on interventions targeting high-risk individuals and 11 targeting whole populations. Both lifestyle and metformin interventions in high-risk individuals were cost-effective from a health care system or a societal perspective, with median ICERs of $12,510/QALY and $17,089/QALY, respectively, compared with no intervention. Among lifestyle interventions, those that followed a Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) curriculum had a median ICER of $6,212/QALY, while those that did not follow a DPP curriculum had a median ICER of $13,228/QALY. Compared with lifestyle interventions delivered one-on-one or by a health professional, those offered in a group setting or provided by a combination of health professionals and lay health workers had lower ICERs. Among population-based interventions, taxing sugar-sweetened beverages was cost-saving from both the health care system and governmental perspectives. Evaluations of other population-based interventions-including fruit and vegetable subsidies, community-based education programs, and modifications to the built environment-showed inconsistent results. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the T2D prevention interventions included in our review were found to be either cost-effective or cost-saving. Our findings may help decision makers set priorities and allocate resources for T2D prevention in real-world settings.

Cost-effectiveness of Interventions to Manage Diabetes: Has the Evidence Changed Since 2008?

OBJECTIVE: To synthesize updated evidence on the cost-effectiveness (CE) of interventions to manage diabetes, its complications, and comorbidities. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review of studies from high-income countries evaluating the CE of diabetes management interventions recommended by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and published in English between June 2008 and July 2017. We also incorporated studies from a previous CE review from the period 1985-2008. We classified the interventions based on their strength of evidence (strong, supportive, or uncertain) and levels of CE: cost-saving (more health benefit at a lower cost), very cost-effective (≤$25,000 per life year gained [LYG] or quality-adjusted life year [QALY]), cost-effective ($25,001-$50,000 per LYG or QALY), marginally cost-effective ($50,001-$100,000 per LYG or QALY), or not cost-effective (>$100,000 per LYG or QALY). Costs were measured in 2017 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: Seventy-three new studies met our inclusion criteria. These were combined with 49 studies from the previous review to yield 122 studies over the period 1985-2017. A large majority of the ADA-recommended interventions remain cost-effective. Specifically, we found strong evidence that the following ADA-recommended interventions are cost-saving or very cost-effective: In the cost-saving category are 1) ACE inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) therapy for intensive hypertension management compared with standard hypertension management, 2) ACEI/ARB therapy to prevent chronic kidney disease and/or end-stage renal disease in people with albuminuria compared with no ACEI/ARB therapy, 3) comprehensive foot care and patient education to prevent and treat foot ulcers among those at moderate/high risk of developing foot ulcers, 4) telemedicine for diabetic retinopathy screening compared with office screening, and 5) bariatric surgery compared with no surgery for individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). In the very cost-effective category are 1) intensive glycemic management (targeting A1C <7%) compared with conventional glycemic management (targeting an A1C level of 8-10%) for individuals with newly diagnosed T2D, 2) multicomponent interventions (involving behavior change/education and pharmacological therapy targeting hyperglycemia, hypertension, dyslipidemia, microalbuminuria, nephropathy/retinopathy, secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease with aspirin) compared with usual care, 3) statin therapy compared with no statin therapy for individuals with T2D and history of cardiovascular disease, 4) diabetes self-management education and support compared with usual care, 5) T2D screening every 3 years starting at age 45 years compared with no screening, 6) integrated, patient-centered care compared with usual care, 7) smoking cessation compared with no smoking cessation, 8) daily aspirin use as primary prevention for cardiovascular complications compared with usual care, 9) self-monitoring of blood glucose three times per day compared with once per day among those using insulin, 10) intensive glycemic management compared with conventional insulin therapy for T2D among adults aged ≥50 years, and 11) collaborative care for depression compared with usual care. CONCLUSIONS: Complementing professional treatment recommendations, our systematic review provides an updated understanding of the potential value of interventions to manage diabetes and its complications and can assist clinicians and payers in prioritizing interventions and health care resources.

National Survey of Primary Care Physicians' Knowledge, Practices, and Perceptions of Prediabetes.

BACKGROUND: Despite strong evidence and national policy supporting type 2 diabetes prevention, little is known about type 2 diabetes prevention in the primary care setting. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to assess primary care physicians' knowledge and practice regarding perceived barriers and potential interventions to improving management of prediabetes. DESIGN: Cross-sectional mailed survey. PARTICIPANTS: Nationally representative random sample of US primary care physicians (PCPs) identified from the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. MAIN MEASURES: We assessed PCP knowledge, practice behaviors, and perceptions related to prediabetes. We performed chi-square and Fisher's exact tests to evaluate the association between PCP characteristics and the main survey outcomes. KEY RESULTS: In total, 298 (33%) eligible participants returned the survey. PCPs had limited knowledge of risk factors for prediabetes screening, laboratory diagnostic criteria for prediabetes, and management recommendations for patients with prediabetes. Only 36% of PCPs refer patients to a diabetes prevention lifestyle change program as their initial management approach, while 43% discuss starting metformin for prediabetes. PCPs believed that barriers to type 2 diabetes prevention are both at the individual level (e.g., patients' lack of motivation) and at the system level (e.g., lack of weight loss resources). PCPs reported that increased access to and insurance coverage of type 2 diabetes prevention programs and coordination of referral of patients to these resources would facilitate type 2 diabetes preventive efforts. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing gaps in PCP knowledge may improve the identification and management of people with prediabetes, but system-level changes are necessary to support type 2 diabetes prevention in the primary care setting.

New directions in incidence and prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in the USA.

Objective: To determine whether diabetes prevalence and incidence has remained flat or changed direction during the past 5 years. Research design and methods: We calculated annual prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined) for civilian, non-institutionalized adults aged 18-79 years using annual, nationally representative cross-sectional survey data from the National Health Interview Survey from 1980 to 2017. Trends in rates by age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and education were calculated using annual percentage change (APC). Results: Overall, the prevalence of age-adjusted, diagnosed diabetes did not change significantly from 1980 to 1990, but increased significantly (APC 4.4%) from 1990 to 2009 to a peak of 8.2 per 100 adults (95% CI 7.8 to 8.6), and then plateaued through 2017. The incidence of age-adjusted, diagnosed diabetes did not change significantly from 1980 to 1990, but increased significantly (APC 4.8%) from 1990 to 2007 to 7.8 per 1000 adults (95% CI 6.7 to 9.0), and then decreased significantly (APC -3.1%) to 6.0 (95% CI 4.9 to 7.3) in 2017. The decrease in incidence appears to be driven by non-Hispanic whites with an APC of -5.1% (p=0.002) after 2008. Conclusions: After an almost 20-year increase in the national prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes, an 8-year period of stable prevalence and a decrease in incidence has occurred. Causes of the plateauing and decrease are unclear but the overall burden of diabetes remains high and deserves continued monitoring and intervention.

Reach and Use of Diabetes Prevention Services in the United States, 2016-2017.

Importance: Coordinated efforts by national organizations in the United States to implement evidence-based lifestyle modification programs are under way to reduce type 2 diabetes (hereinafter referred to as diabetes) and cardiovascular risks. Objective: To provide a status report on the reach and use of diabetes prevention services nationally. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationally representative, population-based cross-sectional analysis of 2016 and 2017 National Health Interview Survey data was conducted from August 3, 2017, through November 15, 2018. Nonpregnant, noninstitutionalized, civilian respondents 18 years or older at high risk for diabetes, defined as those with no self-reported diabetes diagnosis but with diagnosed prediabetes or an elevated American Diabetes Association (ADA) risk score (>5), were included in the analysis. Analyses were conducted for adults with (and in sensitivity analyses, for those without) elevated body mass index. Main Outcomes and Measures: Absolute numbers and proportions of adults at high risk with elevated body mass index receiving advice about diet, physical activity guidance, referral to weight loss programs, referral to diabetes prevention programs, or any of these, and those affirming engagement in each (or any) activity in the past year were estimated. To identify where gaps exist, a prevention continuum diagram plotted existing vs desired goal achievement. Variation in risk-reducing activities by age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, insurance status, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, hypertension, or body mass index was also examined. Results: This analysis included 50 912 respondents (representing 223.0 million adults nationally) 18 years or older (mean [SE] age, 46.1 [0.2] years; 48.1% [0.3%] male) with complete data and no self-reported diabetes diagnosis by their health care professional. Of the represented population, 36.0% (80.0 million) had either a physician diagnosis of prediabetes (17.9 million), an elevated ADA risk score (73.3 million), or both (11.3 million). Among those with diagnosed prediabetes, 73.5% (95% CI, 71.6%-75.3%) reported receiving advice and/or referrals for diabetes risk reduction from their health care professional, and, of those, 35.0% (95% CI, 30.5%-39.8%) to 75.8% (95% CI, 73.2%-78.3%) reported engaging in the respective activity or program in the past year. Half of adults with elevated ADA risk scores but no diagnosed prediabetes (50.6%; 95% CI, 49.5%-51.8%) reported receiving risk-reduction advice and/or referral, of whom 33.5% (95% CI, 30.1%-37.0%) to 75.2% (95% CI, 73.4%-76.9%) reported engaging in activities and/or programs. Participation in diabetes prevention programs was exceedingly low. Advice from a health care professional, age range from 45 to 64 years, higher educational attainment, health insurance status, gestational diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and obesity were associated with higher engagement in risk-reducing activities and/or programs. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults at high risk for diabetes, major gaps in receiving advice and/or referrals and engaging in diabetes risk-reduction activities and/or programs were noted. These results suggest that risk perception, health care professional referral and communication, and insurance coverage may be key levers to increase risk-reducing behaviors in US adults. These findings provide a benchmark from which to monitor future program availability and coverage, identification of prediabetes, and referral to and retention in programs.

Trends and Disparities in Cardiovascular Mortality Among U.S. Adults With and Without Self-Reported Diabetes, 1988-2015.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has declined substantially in the U.S. The aims of this study were to examine trends and demographic disparities in mortality due to CVD and CVD subtypes among adults with and without self-reported diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) (1985-2014) with mortality follow-up data through the end of 2015 to estimate nationally representative trends and disparities in major CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, heart failure, and arrhythmia mortality among adults ≥20 years of age by diabetes status. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up period of 11.8 years from 1988 to 2015 of 677,051 adults, there were significant decreases in major CVD death (all P values <0.05) in adults with and without diabetes except adults 20-54 years of age. Among adults with diabetes, 10-year relative changes in mortality were significant for major CVD (-32.7% [95% CI -37.2, -27.9]), IHD (-40.3% [-44.7, -35.6]), and stroke (-29.2% [-40.0, -16.5]), but not heart failure (-0.5% [-20.7, 24.7]), and arrhythmia (-12.0% [-29.4, 77.5]); the absolute decrease of major CVD among adults with diabetes was higher than among adults without diabetes (P < 0.001). Men with diabetes had larger decreases in CVD death than women with diabetes (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Major CVD mortality in adults with diabetes has declined, especially in men. Large reductions were observed for IHD and stroke mortality, although heart failure and arrhythmia deaths did not change. All race and education groups benefitted to a similar degree, but significant gaps remained across groups.

Trends in cause-specific mortality among adults with and without diagnosed diabetes in the USA: an epidemiological analysis of linked national survey and vital statistics data.

BACKGROUND: Large reductions in diabetes complications have altered diabetes-related morbidity in the USA. It is unclear whether similar trends have occurred in causes of death. METHODS: Using data from the National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality files from 1985 to 2015, we estimated age-specific death rates and proportional mortality from all causes, vascular causes, cancers, and non-vascular, non-cancer causes among US adults by diabetes status. FINDINGS: From 1988-94, to 2010-15, all-cause death rates declined by 20% every 10 years among US adults with diabetes (from 23·1 [95% CI 20·1-26·0] to 15·2 [14·6-15·8] per 1000 person-years), while death from vascular causes decreased 32% every 10 years (from 11·0 [9·2-12·2] to 5·2 [4·8-5·6] per 1000 person-years), deaths from cancers decreased 16% every 10 years (from 4·4 [3·2-5·5] to 3·0 [2·8-3·3] per 1000 person-years), and the rate of non-vascular, non-cancer deaths declined by 8% every 10 years (from 7·7 [6·3-9·2] to 7·1 [6·6-7·5]). Death rates also declined significantly among people without diagnosed diabetes for all four major mortality categories. However, the declines in death rates were significantly greater among people with diabetes for all-causes (pinteraction<0·0001), vascular causes (pinteraction=0·0214), and non-vascular, non-cancer causes (pinteration<0·0001), as differences in all-cause and vascular disease death between people with and without diabetes were reduced by about a half. Among people with diabetes, all-cause mortality rates declined most in men and adults aged 65-74 years of age, and there was no decline in death rates among adults aged 20-44 years. The different magnitude of changes in cause-specific mortality led to large changes in the proportional mortality. The proportion of total deaths among adults with diabetes from vascular causes declined from 47·8% (95% CI 38·9-58·8) in 1988-94 to 34·1% (31·4-37·1) in 2010-15; this decline was offset by large increases in the proportion of deaths from non-vascular, non-cancer causes, from 33·5% (26·7-42·1) to 46·5% (43·3-50·0). The proportion of deaths caused by cancer was relatively stable over time, ranging from 16% to 20%. INTERPRETATION: Declining rates of vascular disease mortality are leading to a diversification of forms of diabetes-related mortality with implications for clinical management, prevention, and disease monitoring. FUNDING: None.

A National Effort to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes: Participant-Level Evaluation of CDC's National Diabetes Prevention Program.

OBJECTIVE: To assess participant-level results from the first 4 years of implementation of the National Diabetes Prevention Program (National DPP), a national effort to prevent type 2 diabetes in those at risk through structured lifestyle change programs. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Descriptive analysis was performed on data from 14,747 adults enrolled in year-long type 2 diabetes prevention programs during the period February 2012 through January 2016. Data on attendance, weight, and physical activity minutes were summarized and predictors of weight loss were examined using a mixed linear model. All analyses were performed using SAS 9.3. RESULTS: Participants attended a median of 14 sessions over an average of 172 days in the program (median 134 days). Overall, 35.5% achieved the 5% weight loss goal (average weight loss 4.2%, median 3.1%). Participants reported a weekly average of 152 min of physical activity (median 128 min), with 41.8% meeting the physical activity goal of 150 min per week. For every additional session attended and every 30 min of activity reported, participants lost 0.3% of body weight (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: During the first 4 years, the National DPP has achieved widespread implementation of the lifestyle change program to prevent type 2 diabetes, with promising early results. Greater duration and intensity of session attendance resulted in a higher percent of body weight loss overall and for subgroups. Focusing on retention may reduce disparities and improve overall program results. Further program expansion and investigation is needed to continue lowering the burden of type 2 diabetes nationally.

Cardiometabolic Risk Factor Changes Observed in Diabetes Prevention Programs in US Settings: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) study showed that weight loss in high-risk adults lowered diabetes incidence and cardiovascular disease risk. No prior analyses have aggregated weight and cardiometabolic risk factor changes observed in studies implementing DPP interventions in nonresearch settings in the United States. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we pooled data from studies in the United States implementing DPP lifestyle modification programs (focused on modest [5%-7%] weight loss through ≥150 min of moderate physical activity per week and restriction of fat intake) in clinical, community, and online settings. We reported aggregated pre- and post-intervention weight and cardiometabolic risk factor changes (fasting blood glucose [FBG], glycosylated hemoglobin [HbA1c], systolic or diastolic blood pressure [SBP/DBP], total [TC] or HDL-cholesterol). We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Clinicaltrials.gov databases from January 1, 2003, to May 1, 2016. Two reviewers independently evaluated article eligibility and extracted data on study designs, populations enrolled, intervention program characteristics (duration, number of core and maintenance sessions), and outcomes. We used a random effects model to calculate summary estimates for each outcome and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). To examine sources of heterogeneity, results were stratified according to the presence of maintenance sessions, risk level of participants (prediabetes or other), and intervention delivery personnel (lay or professional). Forty-four studies that enrolled 8,995 participants met eligibility criteria. Participants had an average age of 50.8 years and body mass index (BMI) of 34.8 kg/m2, and 25.2% were male. On average, study follow-up was 9.3 mo (median 12.0) with a range of 1.5 to 36 months; programs offered a mean of 12.6 sessions, with mean participant attendance of 11.0 core sessions. Sixty percent of programs offered some form of post-core maintenance (either email or in person). Mean absolute changes observed were: weight -3.77 kg (95% CI: -4.55; -2.99), HbA1c -0.21% (-0.29; -0.13), FBG -2.40 mg/dL (-3.59; -1.21), SBP -4.29 mmHg (-5.73, -2.84), DBP -2.56 mmHg (-3.40, 1.71), HDL +0.85 mg/dL (-0.10, 1.60), and TC -5.34 mg/dL (-9.72, -0.97). Programs with a maintenance component achieved greater reductions in weight (additional -1.66kg) and FBG (additional -3.14 mg/dl). Findings are subject to incomplete reporting and heterogeneity of studies included, and confounding because most included studies used pre-post study designs. CONCLUSIONS: DPP lifestyle modification programs achieved clinically meaningful weight and cardiometabolic health improvements. Together, these data suggest that additional value is gained from these programs, reinforcing that they are likely very cost-effective.

Medicare's intensive behavioral therapy for obesity: an exploratory cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Medicare coverage recently was expanded to include intensive behavioral therapy for obese individuals in primary care settings. PURPOSE: To examine the potential cost effectiveness of Medicare's intensive behavioral therapy for obesity, accounting for uncertainty in effectiveness and utilization. METHODS: A Markov simulation model of type 2 diabetes was used to estimate long-term health benefits and healthcare system costs of intensive behavioral therapy for obesity in the Medicare population without diabetes relative to an alternative of usual care. Cohort statistics were based on the 2005-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Model parameters were derived from the literature. Analyses were conducted in 2014 and reported in 2012 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: Based on assumptions for the maximal intervention effectiveness, intensive behavioral therapy is likely to be cost saving if costs per session equal the current reimbursement rate ($25.19) and will provide a cost-effectiveness ratio of $20,912 per quality-adjusted life-year if costs equal the rate for routine office visits. The intervention is less cost effective if it is less effective in primary care settings or if fewer intervention sessions are supplied by providers or used by participants. CONCLUSIONS: If the effectiveness of the intervention is similar to lifestyle interventions tested in other settings and costs per session equal the current reimbursement rate, intensive behavioral therapy for obesity offers good value. However, intervention effectiveness and the pattern of implementation and utilization strongly influence cost effectiveness. Given uncertainty regarding these factors, additional data might be collected to validate the modeling results.

Prevalence and incidence trends for diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 20 to 79 years, United States, 1980-2012.

IMPORTANCE: Although the prevalence and incidence of diabetes have increased in the United States in recent decades, no studies have systematically examined long-term, national trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes. OBJECTIVE: To examine long-term trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes to determine whether there have been periods of acceleration or deceleration in rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed 1980-2012 data for 664,969 adults aged 20 to 79 years from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to estimate incidence and prevalence rates for the overall civilian, noninstitutionalized, US population and by demographic subgroups (age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational level). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The annual percentage change (APC) in rates of the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined). RESULTS: The APC for age-adjusted prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes did not change significantly during the 1980s (for prevalence, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.9% to 1.4%], P = .69; for incidence, -0.1% [95% CI, -2.5% to 2.4%], P = .93), but each increased sharply during 1990-2008 (for prevalence, 4.5% [95% CI, 4.1% to 4.9%], P < .001; for incidence, 4.7% [95% CI, 3.8% to 5.6%], P < .001) before leveling off with no significant change during 2008-2012 (for prevalence, 0.6% [95% CI, -1.9% to 3.0%], P = .64; for incidence, -5.4% [95% CI, -11.3% to 0.9%], P = .09). The prevalence per 100 persons was 3.5 (95% CI, 3.2 to 3.9) in 1990, 7.9 (95% CI, 7.4 to 8.3) in 2008, and 8.3 (95% CI, 7.9 to 8.7) in 2012. The incidence per 1000 persons was 3.2 (95% CI, 2.2 to 4.1) in 1990, 8.8 (95% CI, 7.4 to 10.3) in 2008, and 7.1 (95% CI, 6.1 to 8.2) in 2012. Trends in many demographic subpopulations were similar to these overall trends. However, incidence rates among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic adults continued to increase (for interaction, P = .03 for non-Hispanic black adults and P = .01 for Hispanic adults) at rates significantly greater than for non-Hispanic white adults. In addition, the rate of increase in prevalence was higher for adults who had a high school education or less compared with those who had more than a high school education (for interaction, P = .006 for

Trends in lifetime risk and years of life lost due to diabetes in the USA, 1985-2011: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes incidence has increased and mortality has decreased greatly in the USA, potentially leading to substantial changes in the lifetime risk of diabetes. We aimed to provide updated estimates for the lifetime risk of development of diabetes and to assess the effect of changes in incidence and mortality on lifetime risk and life-years lost to diabetes in the USA. METHODS: We incorporated data about diabetes incidence from the National Health Interview Survey, and linked data about mortality from 1985 to 2011 for 598 216 adults, into a Markov chain model to estimate remaining lifetime diabetes risk, years spent with and without diagnosed diabetes, and life-years lost due to diabetes in three cohorts: 1985-89, 1990-99, and 2000-11. Diabetes was determined by self-report and was classified as any diabetes, excluding gestational diabetes. We used logistic regression to estimate the incidence of diabetes and Poisson regression to estimate mortality. FINDINGS: On the basis of 2000-11 data, lifetime risk of diagnosed diabetes from age 20 years was 40·2% (95% CI 39·2-41·3) for men and 39·6% (38·6-40·5) for women, representing increases of 20 percentage points and 13 percentage points, respectively, since 1985-89. The highest lifetime risks were in Hispanic men and women, and non-Hispanic black women, for whom lifetime risk now exceeds 50%. The number of life-years lost to diabetes when diagnosed at age 40 years decreased from 7·7 years (95% CI 6·5-9·0) in 1990-99 to 5·8 years (4·6-7·1) in 2000-11 in men, and from 8·7 years (8·4-8·9) to 6·8 years (6·7-7·0) in women over the same period. Because of the increasing diabetes prevalence, the average number of years lost due to diabetes for the population as a whole increased by 46% in men and 44% in women. Years spent with diabetes increased by 156% in men and 70% in women. INTERPRETATION: Continued increases in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes combined with declining mortality have led to an acceleration of lifetime risk and more years spent with diabetes, but fewer years lost to the disease for the average individual with diabetes. These findings mean that there will be a continued need for health services and extensive costs to manage the disease, and emphasise the need for effective interventions to reduce incidence. FUNDING: None.

Law, public health, and the diabetes epidemic.

The prevalence of new cases of diabetes continues to increase, and the health burden for those with diabetes remains high. This is attributable, in part, to low adoption of evidence-based interventions for diabetes prevention and control. Law is a critical tool for health improvement, yet assessments reported in this paper indicate that federal, state, and local laws give only partial support to guidelines and evidence-based interventions relevant to diabetes prevention and control. Public health practitioners and policymakers who are concerned with the human, fiscal, and economic costs of the epidemic can explore new ways to translate the evidence base for diabetes prevention and control into effective laws and policies.