Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.

Soil physical properties influence "black truffle" fructification in plantations.

Although the important effects of pH and carbonate content of soils on "black truffle" (Tuber melanosporum) production are well known, we poorly understand the influence of soil physical properties. This study focuses on physical soil characteristics that drive successful production of black truffles in plantations. Seventy-eight Quercus ilex ssp. ballota plantations older than 10 years were studied in the province of Teruel (eastern Spain). Soil samples were analyzed for various edaphic characteristics and to locate T. melanosporum ectomycorrhizae. The influence of cultivation practices, climatic features, and soil properties on sporocarp production was assessed using multivariate analyses. Low contents of fine earth and silt and high levels of bulk density, clay content, and water-holding capacity appear to promote fructification. Watering is also highly positive for truffle fructification. We develop and discuss a logistic model to predict the probability of truffle fructification in field sites under consideration for truffle plantation establishment. The balance between water availability and aeration plays a crucial role in achieving success in black truffle plantations.