Development of an exercise therapy referral clinical support tool for patients with osteoporosis at risk for falls.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop a clinical support tool for osteoporosis clinic providers to support risk assessment and referrals for evidence-based exercise therapy programs. METHODS: A sequential Delphi method was used with a multidisciplinary group of national falls experts, to provide consensus on referral to exercise therapy for patients at risk for falls. The Delphi study included a primary research team, expert panel, and clinical partners to answer the questions: (1) "What patient characteristics are needed to develop a clinical support tool?"; (2) "What are the recommended exercise referrals for patients with osteoporosis at risk for falls?" The consensus process consisted of two rounds with 8 weeks between meetings. Two qualitative researchers analyzed the data using a modified version of a matrix analysis approach. RESULTS: The following were the most important variables to include when determining exercise therapy referrals for patients with osteoporosis: Patient history and demographics, falls history over the last year, current physical function and balance, caregiver and transportation status, socioeconomic and insurance status, and patient preference. Potential exercise therapy referrals included one-on-one physical therapy, group physical therapy, home health, community-based exercise programs, and not acceptable for exercise therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Patient characteristics including patient history, physical function and balance performance, socioeconomic and insurance status, and patient preference for exercise therapy are important to inform both the medical provider and patient with osteoporosis to choose the most appropriate exercise therapy referral. Adoption of the algorithmic suggestions may have a significant impact on uptake and adherence to exercise therapy, ultimately improving patient physical function and reducing falls risk.

High habitat richness reduces the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe: A multi-scale study.

Background: The natural transmission cycle of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is enhanced by complex interactions between ticks and key hosts strongly connected to habitat characteristics. The diversity of wildlife host species and their relative abundance is known to affect transmission of tick-borne diseases. Therefore, in the current context of global biodiversity loss, we explored the relationship between habitat richness and the pattern of human TBE cases in Europe to assess biodiversity's role in disease risk mitigation. Methods: We assessed human TBE case distribution across 879 European regions using official epidemiological data reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) between 2017 and 2021 from 15 countries. We explored the relationship between TBE presence and the habitat richness index (HRI1) by means of binomial regression. We validated our findings at local scale using data collected between 2017 and 2021 in 227 municipalities located in Trento and Belluno provinces, two known TBE foci in northern Italy. Findings: Our results showed a significant parabolic effect of HRI on the probability of presence of human TBE cases in the European regions included in our dataset, and a significant, negative effect of HRI on the local presence of TBE in northern Italy. At both spatial scales, TBE risk decreases in areas with higher values of HRI. Interpretation: To our knowledge, no efforts have yet been made to explore the relationship between biodiversity and TBE risk, probably due to the scarcity of high-resolution, large-scale data about the abundance or density of critical host species. Hence, in this study we considered habitat richness as proxy for vertebrate host diversity. The results suggest that in highly diverse habitats TBE risk decreases. Hence, biodiversity loss could enhance TBE risk for both humans and wildlife. This association is relevant to support the hypothesis that the maintenance of highly diverse ecosystems mitigates disease risk.

Medicare's Hospital Readmission Reduction Program reduced fall-related health care use: An unexpected benefit?

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) was associated with a reduction in severe fall-related injuries (FRIs). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: Secondary data from Medicare were used. STUDY DESIGN: Using an event study design, among older (≥65) Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, we assessed changes in 30- and 90-day FRI readmissions before and after HRRP's announcement (April 2010) and implementation (October 2012) for conditions targeted by the HRRP (acute myocardial infarction [AMI], congestive heart failure [CHF], and pneumonia) versus "non-targeted" (gastrointestinal) conditions. We tested for modification by hospitals with "high-risk" before HRRP and accounted for potential upcoding. We also explored changes in 30-day FRI readmissions involving emergency department (ED) or outpatient care, care processes (length of stay, discharge destination, and primary care visit), and patient selection (age and comorbidities). DATA COLLECTION: Not applicable. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We identified 1.5 million (522,596 pre-HRRP, 514,844 announcement, and 474,029 implementation period) index discharges. After its announcement, HRRP was associated with 12%-20% reductions in 30- and 90-day FRI readmissions for patients with CHF (-0.42 percentage points [ppt], p = 0.02; -1.53 ppt, p < 0.001) and AMI (-0.35, p = 0.047; -0.97, p = 0.001). Two years after implementation, HRRP was associated with reductions in 90-day FRI readmission for AMI (-1.27 ppt, p = 0.01) and CHF (-0.98 ppt, p = 0.02) patients. Results were similar for hospitals at higher versus lower baseline risk of FRI readmission. After HRRP's announcement, decreases were observed in home health (AMI: -2.43 ppt, p < 0.001; CHF: -8.83 ppt, p < 0.001; pneumonia: -1.97 ppt, p < 0.001) and skilled nursing facility referrals (AMI: -5.95 ppt, p < 0.001; CHF: -3.19 ppt, p < 0.001; pneumonia: -10.27 ppt, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HRRP was associated with reductions in FRIs, primarily for HF and pneumonia patients. These decreases may reflect improvements in transitional care including changes in post-acute referral patterns that benefit patients at risk for falls.

Mobile and Web-Based Partnered Intervention to Improve Remote Access to Pain and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Management: Recruitment and Attrition in a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Increasing access to nonpharmacological interventions to manage pain and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is essential for veterans. Complementary and integrative health (CIH) interventions can help individuals manage symptom burden with enhanced accessibility via remotely delivered health care. Mission Reconnect (MR) is a partnered, self-directed intervention that remotely teaches CIH skills. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper is to describe the recruitment, onboarding phase, and attrition of a fully remote randomized controlled trial (RCT) assessing the efficacy of a self-directed mobile and web-based intervention for veterans with comorbid chronic pain and PTSD and their partners. METHODS: A total of 364 veteran-partner dyads were recruited to participate in a mixed methods multisite waitlist control RCT. Qualitative attrition interviews were conducted with 10 veterans with chronic pain and PTSD, and their self-elected partners (eg, spouse) who consented but did not begin the program. RESULTS: At the point of completing onboarding and being randomized to the 2 treatment arms, of the 364 recruited dyads, 97 (26.6%) failed to complete onboarding activities. Reported reasons for failure to complete onboarding include loss of self-elected partner buy-in (n=8, 8%), difficulties with using remote data collection methods and interventions (n=30, 31%), and adverse health experiences unrelated to study activities (n=23, 24%). Enrolled veterans presented at baseline with significant PTSD symptom burden and moderate-to-severe pain severity, and represented a geographically and demographically diverse population. Attrition interviews (n=10) indicated that misunderstanding MR including the intent of the intervention or mistaking the surveys as the actual intervention was a reason for not completing the MR registration process. Another barrier to MR registration was that interviewees described the mailed study information and registration packets as too confusing and excessive. Competing personal circumstances including health concerns that required attention interfered with MR registration. Common reasons for attrition following successful MR registration included partner withdrawal, adverse health issues, and technological challenges relating to the MR and electronic data collection platform (Qualtrics). Participant recommendations for reducing attrition included switching to digital forms to reduce participant burden and increasing human interaction throughout the registration and baseline data collection processes. CONCLUSIONS: Challenges, solutions, and lessons learned for study recruitment and intervention delivery inform best practices of delivering remote self-directed CIH interventions when addressing the unique needs of this medically complex population. Successful recruitment and enrollment of veterans with chronic pain and PTSD, and their partners, to remote CIH programs and research studies requires future examination of demographic and symptom-associated access barriers. Accommodating the unique needs of this medically complex population is essential for improving the effectiveness of CIH programs. Disseminating lessons learned and improving access to remotely delivered research studies and CIH programs is paramount in the post-COVID-19 climate. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03593772; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03593772.

Ecological and environmental factors affecting the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe, 2017 to 2021.

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a disease which can lead to severe neurological symptoms, caused by the TBE virus (TBEV). The natural transmission cycle occurs in foci and involves ticks as vectors and several key hosts that act as reservoirs and amplifiers of the infection spread. Recently, the incidence of TBE in Europe has been rising in both endemic and new regions.AimIn this study we want to provide comprehensive understanding of the main ecological and environmental factors that affect TBE spread across Europe.MethodsWe searched available literature on covariates linked with the circulation of TBEV in Europe. We then assessed the best predictors for TBE incidence in 11 European countries by means of statistical regression, using data on human infections provided by the European Surveillance System (TESSy), averaged between 2017 and 2021.ResultsWe retrieved data from 62 full-text articles and identified 31 different covariates associated with TBE occurrence. Finally, we selected eight variables from the best model, including factors linked to vegetation cover, climate, and the presence of tick hosts.DiscussionThe existing literature is heterogeneous, both in study design and covariate types. Here, we summarised and statistically validated the covariates affecting the variability of TBEV across Europe. The analysis of the factors enhancing disease emergence is a fundamental step towards the identification of potential hotspots of viral circulation. Hence, our results can support modelling efforts to estimate the risk of TBEV infections and help decision-makers implement surveillance and prevention campaigns.

VectorNet: collaborative mapping of arthropod disease vectors in Europe and surrounding areas since 2010.

BackgroundArthropod vectors such as ticks, mosquitoes, sandflies and biting midges are of public and veterinary health significance because of the pathogens they can transmit. Understanding their distributions is a key means of assessing risk. VectorNet maps their distribution in the EU and surrounding areas.AimWe aim to describe the methodology underlying VectorNet maps, encourage standardisation and evaluate output.Methods: Vector distribution and surveillance activity data have been collected since 2010 from a combination of literature searches, field-survey data by entomologist volunteers via a network facilitated for each participating country and expert validation. Data were collated by VectorNet members and extensively validated during data entry and mapping processes.ResultsAs of 2021, the VectorNet archive consisted of ca 475,000 records relating to > 330 species. Maps for 42 species are routinely produced online at subnational administrative unit resolution. On VectorNet maps, there are relatively few areas where surveillance has been recorded but there are no distribution data. Comparison with other continental databases, namely the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and VectorBase show that VectorNet has 5-10 times as many records overall, although three species are better represented in the other databases. In addition, VectorNet maps show where species are absent. VectorNet's impact as assessed by citations (ca 60 per year) and web statistics (58,000 views) is substantial and its maps are widely used as reference material by professionals and the public.ConclusionVectorNet maps are the pre-eminent source of rigorously validated arthropod vector maps for Europe and its surrounding areas.

Minimizing fall-related injuries in at-risk older adults: The falling safely training (FAST) study protocol.

Background: Falls are the leading cause of accidental injury among the elderly. Fall prevention is currently the main strategy to minimize fall-related injuries in at-risk older adults. However, the success of fall prevention programs in preventing accidental injury in elderly populations is inconsistent. An alternative novel approach to directly target fall-related injuries is teaching older adults movement patterns which reduce injury risk. The purpose of the current study will be to explore the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of teaching at-risk older adults safe-falling strategies to minimize the risk of injury. Methods/design: The Falling Safely Training (FAST) study will be a prospective, single-blinded randomized controlled trial. A total of 28 participants will be randomly assigned to four weeks of FAST or to an active control group with a 1:1 allocation. People aged ≥65 years, at-risk of injurious falls, and with normal hip bone density will be eligible. The FAST program will consist of a standardized progressive training of safe-falling movement strategies. The control group will consist of evidence-based balance training (modified Otago exercise program). Participants will undergo a series of experimentally induced falls in a laboratory setting at baseline, after the 4-week intervention, and three months after the intervention. Data on head and hip movement during the falls will be collected through motion capture. Discussion: The current study will provide data on the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of safe-falling training as a strategy to reduce fall impact and head motion, and potentially to reduce hip and head injuries in at-risk populations. Registration: The FAST study is registered at http://Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05260034).

Self-administered acupressure for veterans with chronic back pain: Study design and methodology of a type 1 hybrid effectiveness implementation randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic low back pain is prevalent and disabling in Veterans, but effective pain management is challenging. Clinical practice guidelines emphasize multimodal pain management including evidence-based complementary and integrative health treatments such as acupressure as a first line of care. Unfortunately, the ability to replicate interventions, cost, resources, and limited access are implementation barriers. Self-administered acupressure has shown positive effects on pain and can be practiced anywhere with little to no side effects. METHODS/DESIGN: The aims of this Type 1 hybrid effectiveness implementation randomized controlled trial are 1) to determine effectiveness of a self-administered acupressure protocol at improving pain interference and secondary outcomes of fatigue, sleep quality, and disability in 300 Veterans with chronic low back pain, and 2) evaluate implementation barriers and facilitators to scale-up acupressure utilization within Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Participants randomized to the intervention will receive instruction on acupressure application using an app that facilitates daily practice for 6 weeks. During weeks 6 through 10, participants will discontinue acupressure to determine sustainability of effects. Participants randomized to waitlist control will continue their usual care for pain management and receive study materials at the end of the study period. Outcomes will be collected at baseline and at 6- and 10-weeks post baseline. The primary outcome is pain interference, measured by the PROMIS pain interference scale. Using established frameworks and a mixed methods approach, we will evaluate intervention implementation. DISCUSSION: If acupressure is effective, we will tailor strategies to support implementation in the VHA based on study findings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05423145.

Involvement of Informal Caregivers in Preventing Falls in Older Adults with Cognitive Impairment: A Rapid Review.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of falls and related injuries is double in older adults with cognitive impairment compared with cognitively healthy older adults. A growing body of literature shows that falls prevention interventions in the cognitively impaired are difficult to implement and that the feasibility and adherence to interventions depend on a number of factors including informal caregiver involvement. However, no systematic review exists on the topic. OBJECTIVE: Our objective is to determine whether involvement of informal caregivers can reduce falls in older adults with cognitive impairment. METHODS: Rapid review following Cochrane collaboration guidelines. RESULTS: Seven randomized controlled trials were identified involving 2,202 participants. We identified the following areas where informal caregiving may have an important role in fall prevention in older adults with cognitive impairment: 1) enhancing adherence to the exercise program; 2) identifying and recording falls incidents and circumstances; 3) identifying and modifying possible environmental falls risk factors inside patient's home; and 4) playing an active role in modifying lifestyle in terms of diet/nutrition, limiting antipsychotics, and avoiding movements risking falls. However, informal caregiver involvement was identified as an incidental finding in these studies and the level of evidence ranged from low to moderate. CONCLUSION: Informal caregiver involvement in planning and delivering interventions to reduce falls has been found to increase the adherence of individuals with cognitive impairment in falls prevention programs. Future research should address whether involvement of informal caregivers may improve efficacy of prevention programs by reducing the number of falls as a primary outcome.

Does computerized cognitive training improve diabetes self-management and cognition? A randomized control trial of middle-aged and older veterans with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: This randomized control trial compared an adaptive computerized cognitive training intervention with a non-adaptive version. The primary hypothesis predicted better diabetes self-management in type 2 diabetes patients at 6 months post-intervention than baseline in the adaptive arm, with seven secondary outcomes. METHODS: Intent-to-treat analysis of veterans without dementia aged 55+ from the Bronx, NY and Ann Arbor, MI (N = 90/per arm) used linear mixed model analyses. RESULTS: Contrary to the hypothesis, only memory showed more improvement in the adaptive arm (p < 0.01). Post-hoc analyses combined the two arms; self-management improved at six-months post-intervention (p < 0.001). Memory, executive functions/attention, prospective memory, diastolic blood pressure, and systolic blood pressure improved (p < 0.05); hemoglobin A1c and medication adherence did not improve significantly. CONCLUSIONS: The adaptive computerized cognitive training was not substantially better than non-adaptive, but may improve memory. Post-hoc results for the combined arms suggest computer-related activities may improve diabetes self-management and other outcomes for middle-aged and older patients with type 2 diabetes. Practice effects or awareness of being studied cannot be ruled out.

A proposed methodology for trip recovery training without a specialized treadmill.

Falls are the leading cause of accidental injuries among adults aged 65 years and older. Perturbation-based balance training is a novel exercise-based fall prevention intervention that has shown promise in reducing falls. Trip recovery training is a form of perturbation-based balance training that targets trip-induced falls. Trip recovery training typically requires the use of a specialized treadmill, the cost of which may present a barrier for use in some settings. The goal of this paper is to present a methodology for trip recovery training that does not require a specialized treadmill. A trial is planned in the near future to evaluate its effectiveness. If effective, non-treadmill trip recovery training could provide a lower cost method of perturbation-based balance training, and facilitate greater implementation outside of the research environment.

Long-lasting insecticidal nets provide protection against malaria for only a single year in Burundi, an African highland setting with marked malaria seasonality.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are one of the key interventions in the global fight against malaria. Since 2014, mass distribution campaigns of LLINs aim for universal access by all citizens of Burundi. In this context, we assess the impact of LLINs mass distribution campaigns on malaria incidence, focusing on the endemic highland health districts. We also explored the possible correlation between observed trends in malaria incidence with any variations in climate conditions. METHODS: Malaria cases for 2011-2019 were obtained from the National Health Information System. We developed a generalised additive model based on a time series of routinely collected data with malaria incidence as the response variable and timing of LLIN distribution as an explanatory variable to investigate the duration and magnitude of the LLIN effect on malaria incidence. We added a seasonal and continuous-time component as further explanatory variables, and health district as a random effect to account for random natural variation in malaria cases between districts. RESULTS: Malaria transmission in Burundian highlands was clearly seasonal and increased non-linearly over the study period. Further, a fast and steep decline of malaria incidence was noted during the first year after mass LLIN distribution (p<0.0001). In years 2 and 3 after distribution, malaria cases started to rise again to levels higher than before the control intervention. CONCLUSION: This study highlights that LLINs did reduce the incidence in the first year after a mass distribution campaign, but in the context of Burundi, LLINs lost their impact after only 1 year.

Modelling the West Nile virus force of infection in the European human population.

West Nile virus (WNV) is among the most recent emerging mosquito-borne pathogens in Europe where each year hundreds of human cases are recorded. We developed a relatively simple technique to model the WNV force of infection (FOI) in the human population to assess its dependence on environmental and human demographic factors. To this aim, we collated WNV human case-based data reported to the European Surveillance System from 15 European Countries during the period 2010-2021. We modelled the regional WNV FOI for each year through normal distributions and calibrated the constituent parameters, namely average (peak timing), variance and overall intensity, to observed cases. Finally, we investigated through regression models how these parameters are associated to a set of climatic, environmental and human demographic covariates. Our modelling approach shows good agreement between expected and observed epidemiological curves. We found that FOI magnitude is positively associated with spring temperature and larger in more anthropogenic semi-natural areas, while FOI peak timing is negatively related to summer temperature. Unsurprisingly, FOI is estimated to be greater in regions with a larger fraction of elderly people, who are more likely to contract severe infections. Our results confirm that temperature plays a key role in shaping WNV transmission in Europe and provide some interesting hints on how human presence and demography might affect WNV burden. This simple yet reliable approach could be easily adopted for early warning and to address epidemiological investigations of other vector-borne diseases, especially where eco-epidemiological data are scarce.

Health of the Food Environment Is Associated With Heart Failure Mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Food environment factors contribute to cardiovascular disease, but their effect on population-level heart failure (HF) mortality is unclear. METHODS: We utilized the National Vital Statistics System and USDA Food Environment Atlas to collect HF mortality rates (MR) and 2 county food environment indices: (1) food insecurity percentage (FI%) and (2) food environment index (FEI), a scaled index (0-10, 10 best) incorporating FI% and access to healthy food. We used linear regression to estimate the association between food environment and HF MR Results: Mean county FI% and FEI were 13% and 7.8 in 2956 included counties. Counties with FI% above the national median had significantly higher HF MR (30.7 versus 26.7 per 100 000; P<0.001) compared with FI% below the national median. Counties with HF MR above the national median had higher FI%, lower FEI, lower density of grocery stores, poorer access to stores among older adults, and lower Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program participation rate (P<0.001 for all). Lower county FI% (ß=-1.3% per 1% decrease) and higher county FEI (ß=-3.6% per 1-unit increase in FEI) were significantly associated with lower HF MR after adjustment for county demographic, socioeconomic, and health factors. This association was stronger for HF MR compared with non-HF cardiovascular disease MR and all-cause MR The relationship between food environment and HF MR was stronger in counties with the highest income inequity and poverty rate. CONCLUSIONS: Healthier food environment is significantly associated with lower HF mortality at the county level. This reinforces the role of food security on cardiovascular outcomes.

Prescription characteristics associated with fall-related injury risk among older adults prescribed benzodiazepines: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Benzodiazepines (BZD) are widely prescribed to older adults despite their association with increased fall injury. Our aim is to better characterize risk-elevating factors among those prescribed BZD. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using a 20% sample of Medicare beneficiaries with Part D prescription drug coverage. Patients with a BZD prescription ("index") between 1 April 2016 and 31 December 2017 contributed to incident (n=379,273) and continuing (n=509,634) cohorts based on prescriptions during a 6-month pre-index baseline. Exposures were index BZD average daily dose and days prescribed; baseline BZD medication possession ratio (MPR) (for the continuing cohort); and co-prescribed central nervous system-active medications. Outcome was a treated fall-related injury within 30 days post-index BZD, examined using Cox proportional hazards adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates and the dose prescribed. RESULTS: Among incident and continuing cohorts, 0.9% and 0.7% experienced fall injury within 30 days of index. In both cohorts, injury risk was elevated immediately post-index among those prescribed the lowest quantity: e.g., for <14-day fill (ref: 14-30 days) in the incident cohort, risk was 37% higher the 10 days post-fill (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.37 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.59]). Risk was elevated immediately post-index for continuing users with low baseline BZD exposure (e.g., for MPR <0.5 [ref: MPR 0.5-1], HR during days 1-10 was 1.23 [CI 1.08-1.39]). Concurrent antipsychotics and opioids were associated with elevated injury risk in both cohorts (e.g., incident HRs 1.21 [CI 1.03-1.40] and 1.22 [CI 1.07-1.40], respectively; continuing HRs 1.23 [1.10-1.37] and 1.21 [1.11-1.33]). CONCLUSIONS: Low baseline BZD exposure and a small index prescription were associated with higher fall injury risk immediately after a BZD fill. Concurrent exposure to antipsychotics and opioids were associated with elevated short-term risk for both incident and continuing cohorts.

World guidelines for falls prevention and management for older adults: a global initiative.

BACKGROUND: falls and fall-related injuries are common in older adults, have negative effects on functional independence and quality of life and are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and health related costs. Current guidelines are inconsistent, with no up-to-date, globally applicable ones present. OBJECTIVES: to create a set of evidence- and expert consensus-based falls prevention and management recommendations applicable to older adults for use by healthcare and other professionals that consider: (i) a person-centred approach that includes the perspectives of older adults with lived experience, caregivers and other stakeholders; (ii) gaps in previous guidelines; (iii) recent developments in e-health and (iv) implementation across locations with limited access to resources such as low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: a steering committee and a worldwide multidisciplinary group of experts and stakeholders, including older adults, were assembled. Geriatrics and gerontological societies were represented. Using a modified Delphi process, recommendations from 11 topic-specific working groups (WGs), 10 ad-hoc WGs and a WG dealing with the perspectives of older adults were reviewed and refined. The final recommendations were determined by voting. RECOMMENDATIONS: all older adults should be advised on falls prevention and physical activity. Opportunistic case finding for falls risk is recommended for community-dwelling older adults. Those considered at high risk should be offered a comprehensive multifactorial falls risk assessment with a view to co-design and implement personalised multidomain interventions. Other recommendations cover details of assessment and intervention components and combinations, and recommendations for specific settings and populations. CONCLUSIONS: the core set of recommendations provided will require flexible implementation strategies that consider both local context and resources.

Effect of the STRIDE fall injury prevention intervention on falls, fall injuries, and health-related quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Falls are common in older adults and can lead to severe injuries. The Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop Confidence in Elders (STRIDE) trial cluster-randomized 86 primary care practices across 10 health systems to a multifactorial intervention to prevent fall injuries, delivered by registered nurses trained as falls care managers, or enhanced usual care. STRIDE enrolled 5451 community-dwelling older adults age ≥70 at increased fall injury risk. METHODS: We assessed fall-related outcomes via telephone interviews of participants (or proxies) every 4 months. At baseline, 12 and 24 months, we assessed health-related quality of life (HRQOL) using the EQ-5D-5L and EQ-VAS. We used Poisson models to assess intervention effects on falls, fall-related fractures, fall injuries leading to hospital admission, and fall injuries leading to medical attention. We used hierarchical longitudinal linear models to assess HRQOL. RESULTS: For recurrent event models, intervention versus control incidence rate ratios were 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-1.00; p = 0.048) for falls, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.80-1.08; p = 0.337) for self-reported fractures, 0.89 (95% CI, 0.73-1.07; p = 0.205) for adjudicated fractures, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.77-1.07; p = 0.263) for falls leading to hospital admission, and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.89-1.06; p = 0.477) for falls leading to medical attention. Similar effect sizes (non-significant) were obtained for dichotomous outcomes (e.g., participants with ≥1 events). The difference in least square mean change over time in EQ-5D-5L (intervention minus control) was 0.009 (95% CI, -0.002 to 0.019; p = 0.106) at 12 months and 0.005 (95% CI, -0.006 to 0.015; p = 0.384) at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Across a standard set of outcomes typically reported in fall prevention studies, we observed modest improvements, one of which was statistically significant. Future work should focus on patient-, practice-, and organization-level operational strategies to increase the real-world effectiveness of interventions, and improving the ability to detect small but potentially meaningful clinical effects. CLINICALTRIALS: gov identifier: NCT02475850.

Past, present and future distribution of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti: The European paradox.

The global distribution of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti is the subject of considerable attention because of its pivotal role as a biological vector of several high profile disease pathogens including dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. There is also a lot of interest in the projected future species' distribution. However, less effort has been focused on its historical distribution, which has changed substantially over the past 100 years, especially in southern Europe where it was once widespread, but largely disappeared by the middle of the 20th century. The present work utilises all available historical records of the distribution of Ae. aegypti in southern Europe, the Near East within the Mediterranean Basin and North Africa from the late 19th century until the 1960's to construct a spatial distribution model using matching historical climatic and demographic data. The resulting model was then implemented using current climate and demographic data to assess the potential distribution of the vector in the present. The models were rerun with several different assumptions about the thresholds that determine habitat suitability for Ae. aegypti. The historical model matches the historical distributions well. When it is run with current climate values, the predicted present day distribution is somewhat broader than it used to be particularly in north-west France, North Africa and Turkey. Though it is beginning to reappear in the eastern Caucasus, this 'potential' distribution clearly does not match the actual distribution of the species, which suggests some other factors are responsible for its absence. Future distributions based on the historical model also do not match future distributions derived from models based only on present day vector distributions, which predict little or no presence in the Mediterranean Region. At the same time, the vector is widespread in the USA which is predicted to consolidate its range there in future. This contradiction and the implication for possible re-invasion of Europe are discussed.

Physical Activity Patterns in Frail and Nonfrail Patients With End-Stage Liver Disease.

Background: Frailty commonly complicates cirrhosis and is associated with poorer outcomes. While patients with cirrhosis may be sedentary, there are few comprehensive descriptions of their physical activity (PA) patterns related to frailty. Our aim was to identify PA characteristics that may be used in interventions to improve PA and reduce frailty. Methods: In a cross-sectional cohort study, forty patients with cirrhosis (mean age 63; 30 nonfrail, 10 frail) wore an accelerometer/thermal sensing armband for 7 days. Postural status (e.g., upright movement, upright sedentary, lying down), Metabolic Equivalent of Tasks (METs) and active bouts were identified. Results: Patients were highly sedentary most of the time (89 ± 7% and 85 ± 10% of the day, in frail and nonfrail cirrhotics, respectively). Compared with nonfrail cirrhotics, frail patients spent significantly shorter amount of time moving in an upright position (7% ± 5 vs. 12% ± 5, P = 0.013 in frail and nonfrail cirrhotics, respectively), had significantly fewer and shorter durations of active bouts per day (number of active bouts: 9 ± 12 vs. 19 ± 14; duration: 13.2 ± 1.5 min and 15.9 ± 2.6 min in frail and nonfrail cirrhotics, respectively), and had a lower amount of steps per wear time hours (41.7 ± 37.1 vs. 116.8 ± 85.4, P = 0.003 in frail and nonfrail, respectively). Traditional measures such as METs or aerobic bouts did not differ between groups. Conclusions: Active bout measures, as opposed to more traditional measures such as METs, differentiate between frail and nonfrail cirrhotics suggesting they may be used to assess changes resulting from targeted interventions to improve physical activity.

Mapping environmental suitability of Haemagogus and Sabethes spp. mosquitoes to understand sylvatic transmission risk of yellow fever virus in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991-2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.