Past local government health spending was not correlated with COVID-19 control in US counties.

CONTEXT: Wide variation in state and county health spending prior to 2020 enables tests of whether historically better state and locally funded counties achieved faster control over COVID-19 in the first 6 months of the pandemic in the Unites States prior to federal supplemental funding. OBJECTIVE: We used time-to-event and generalized linear models to examine the association between pre-pandemic state-level public health spending, county-level non-hospital health spending, and effective COVID-19 control at the county level. We include 2,775 counties that reported 10 or more COVID-19 cases between January 22, 2020, and July 19, 2020, in the analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Control of COVID-19 was defined by: (i) elapsed time in days between the 10th case and the day of peak incidence of a county's local epidemic, among counties that bent their case curves, and (ii) doubling time of case counts within the first 30 days of a county's local epidemic for all counties that reported 10 or more cases. RESULTS: Only 26% of eligible counties had bent their case curve in the first 6 months of the pandemic. Government health spending at the county level was not associated with better COVID-19 control in terms of either a shorter time to peak in survival analyses, or doubling time in generalized linear models. State-level public spending on hazard preparation and response was associated with a shorter time to peak among counties that were able to bend their case incidence curves. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing resource availability for public health in local jurisdictions without thoughtful attention to bolstering the foundational capabilities inside health departments is unlikely to be sufficient to prepare the country for future outbreaks or other public health emergencies.

County health outcomes linkage to county spending on social services, building infrastructure, and law and order.

Will counties that reallocate money from law enforcement to social services improve subsequent markers of population wellbeing? In this study, we measure the association between county government spending across multiple sectors and Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB) in the U.S. using data from the U.S. Census Bureau. We constructed a Structural Equation Model to determine whether social expenditure, building infrastructure, and spending on law and order were positively or negatively associated with LEB three-years after initial spending. The analysis compared data between 2002-05 and 2007-10 and was stratified for urban and rural counties. In rural counties, a one-standard-deviation increase in social spending increased subsequent LEB by 0.58 (SE 0.16) and 0.36 (SE 0.16) years in 2005 and 2010, respectively. In urban counties, a one-standard-deviation increase in building infrastructure spending increased subsequent LEB by 1.14 (SE 0.51) and 1.05 (SE 0.49) years in 2005 and 2010, respectively. In 2002, a one-standard-deviation increase in law and order spending significantly decreased subsequent life expectancy, 2.2 (SE 1.27) and 0.46 (SE 0.13) years in urban and rural counties, respectively. Similarly, investments in building infrastructure for urban counties and social services for rural counties were associated with subsequently higher life expectancy three years later after initial investments.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a large-scale crèche intervention to prevent child drowning in rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Drowning is the leading cause of death among children 12-59 months old in rural Bangladesh. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a large-scale crèche (daycare) intervention in preventing child drowning. METHODS: The cost of the crèches intervention was evaluated using an ingredients-based approach and monthly expenditure data collected prospectively throughout the study period from two agencies implementing the intervention in different study areas. The estimate of the effectiveness of the crèches intervention was based on a previous study. The study evaluated the cost-effectiveness from both a program and societal perspective. RESULTS: From the program perspective the annual operating cost of a crèche was $416.35 (95% CI: $221 to $576), the annual cost per child was $16 (95% CI: $8 to $23), and the incremental-cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per life saved with the crèches was $17,008 (95% CI: $8817 to $24,619). From the societal perspective (including parents time valued) the ICER per life saved was - $166,833 (95% CI: - $197,421 to - $141,341)-meaning crèches generated net economic benefits per child enrolled. Based on the ICER per disability-adjusted-life years averted from the societal perspective (excluding parents time), $1978, the crèche intervention was cost-effective even when the societal economic benefits were ignored. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the evidence, the crèche intervention has great potential for generating net societal economic gains by reducing child drowning at a program cost that is reasonable.

US Public Health Neglected: Flat Or Declining Spending Left States Ill Equipped To Respond To COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted concern about the integrity of the US public health infrastructure. Federal, state, and local governments spend $93 billion annually on public health in the US, but most of this spending is at the state level. Thus, shoring up gaps in public health preparedness and response requires an understanding of state spending. We present state spending trends in eight categories of public health activity from 2008 through 2018. We obtained data from the Census Bureau for all states except California and coded the data by public health category. Although overall national health expenditures grew by 4.3 percent in this period, state governmental public health spending saw no statistically significant growth between 2008 and 2018 except in injury prevention. Moreover, state spending levels on public health were not restored after cuts experienced during the Great Recession, leaving states ill equipped to respond to COVID-19 and other emerging health needs.

Inaccuracy of Official Estimates of Public Health Spending in the United States, 2000-2018.

Objectives. To examine the accuracy of official estimates of governmental health spending in the United States.Methods. We coded approximately 2.7 million administrative spending records from 2000 to 2018 for public health activities according to a standardized Uniform Chart of Accounts produced by the Public Health Activities and Services Tracking project. The official US Public Health Activity estimate was recalculated using updated estimates from the data coding.Results. Although official estimates place governmental public health spending at more than $93 billion (2.5% of total spending on health), detailed examination of spending records from state governments shows that official estimates include substantial spending on individual health care services (e.g., behavioral health) and that actual spending on population-level public health activities is more likely between $35 billion and $64 billion (approximately 1.5% of total health spending).Conclusions. Clarity in understanding of public health spending is critical for characterizing its value proposition. Official estimates are likely tens of billions of dollars greater than actual spending.Public Health Implications. Precise and clear spending estimates are material for policymakers to accurately understand the effect of their resource allocation decisions.

The State of Rural Public Health: Enduring Needs in a New Decade.

Public health in the rural United States is a complex and underfunded enterprise. While urban-rural disparities have been a focus for researchers and policymakers alike for decades, inequalities continue to grow. Life expectancy at birth is now 1 to 2 years greater between wealthier urban and rural counties, and is as much as 5 years, on average, between wealthy and poor counties.This article explores the growth in these disparities over the past 40 years, with roots in structural, economic, and social spending differentials that have emerged or persisted over the same time period. Importantly, a focus on place-based disparities recognizes that the rural United States is not a monolith, with important geographic and cultural differences present regionally. We also focus on the challenges the rural governmental public health enterprise faces, the so-called "double disparity" of worse health outcomes and behaviors alongside modest investment in health departments compared with their nonrural peers.Finally, we offer 5 population-based "prescriptions" for supporting rural public health in the United States. These relate to greater investment and supporting rural advocacy to better address the needs of the rural United States in this new decade.

Tracking Time and Resources Associated with Systems Change and the Adoption of Evidence-Based Programs: The "Hidden Costs" of School-Based Coaching.

This study leveraged data from a 40-school randomized controlled trial to understand the cost of coaching to support implementation of evidence-based programs (EBPs) through a multi-tiered system of supports for behavior (MTSS-B) model. Coach activity log data were utilized to generate the annual average, per school, costs of coaching of $8198. The cost of school personnel time for coaching was estimated to be $3028. Data on coach-rated administrator buy-in, school MTSS-B engagement, and implementation infrastructure and capacity were also collected and found to be associated with coaching activities. Notably, coaches did not spend significantly different amounts of time in schools using few EBPs relative to more EBPs, indicating some inefficiency in the use of coaches' time. These findings highlight the often-overlooked resources needed to support EBP implementation in schools.

Willingness-to-pay for long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets: a discrete choice experiment with real payment in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Expanding access to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is difficult if one is limited to government and donor financial resources. Private commercial markets could play a larger role in the continuous distribution of LLINs by offering differentiated LLINs to middle-class Ghanaians. This population segment has disposable income and may be willing to pay for LLINs that meet their preferences. Measuring the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for LLINs with specialty features that appeal to middle-class Ghanaians could help malaria control programmes understand what is the potential for private markets to work alongside fully subsidized LLIN distribution channels to assist in spreading this commodity. METHODS: This study conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) including a real payment choice among a representative sample of 628 middle-income households living in Ashanti, Greater Accra, and Western regions in Ghana. The DCE presented 18 paired combinations of LLIN features and various prices. Respondents indicated which LLIN of each pair they preferred and whether they would purchase it. To validate stated willingness-to-pay, each participant was given a cash payment of $14.30 (GHS 65) that they could either keep or immediately spend on one of the LLIN products. RESULTS: The households' average probability of purchasing a LLIN with specialty features was 43.8% (S.D. 0.07) and WTP was $7.48 (GHS34.0). The preferred LLIN features were conical or rectangular one-point-hang shape, queen size, and zipper entry. The average WTP for a LLIN with all the preferred features was $18.48 (GHS 84). In a scenario with the private LLIN market, the public sector outlay could be reduced by 39% and private LLIN sales would generate $8.1 million ($311 per every 100 households) in revenue in the study area that would support jobs for Ghanaian retailers, distributors, and importers of LLINs. CONCLUSION: Results support a scenario in which commercial markets for LLINs could play a significant role in improving access to LLINs for middle-income Ghanaians. Manufacturers interested could offer LLIN designs with features that are most highly valued among middle-income households in Ghana and maintain a retail price that could yield sufficient economic returns.

A MARGINAL COST ANALYSIS OF A BIG BROTHERS BIG SISTERS OF AMERICA YOUTH MENTORING PROGRAM: NEW EVIDENCE USING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost of serving one additional youth in the Big Brothers Big Sisters of America (BBBS) program. We used a marginal cost approach which offers a significant improvement over previous methods based on average total cost estimates. The data consisted of eight years of monthly records from January 2008 to August 2015 obtained from program administrators at one BBBS site in the Mid-Atlantic. Results show that the BBBS marginal cost to serve one additional youth was $80 per mentor-month of BBBS mentoring (irrespective of program type). The cost to offer services for the average match duration of 19 months per marginal added youth was $1,503. The marginal costs per treated program participant in school-based versus community-based programs were $1,199 and $3,301, respectively. Marginal cost estimates are in the range of youth mentoring programs with significant returns on investment but are substantially higher than prior BBBS unit cost estimates reported using less robust estimation methods. This cost analysis can better inform policy makers and donors on the cost of expanding the scale of local BBBS programs as well as suggest opportunities for cost savings.

Medicaid Cost Savings of a Preventive Home Visit Program for Disabled Older Adults.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Little is known about cost savings of programs that reduce disability in older adults. The objective was to determine whether the Community Aging in Place, Advancing Better Living for Elders (CAPABLE) program saves Medicaid more money than it costs to provide. DESIGN: Single-arm clinical trial (N = 204) with a comparison group of individuals (N = 2,013) dually eligible for Medicaid and Medicare matched on baseline geographic and demographic characteristics, chronic conditions, and healthcare use. We used finite mixture model regression estimates in a Markov model. SETTING: Baltimore, MD PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 65 and older with reported difficulty with at least one activity of daily living. INTERVENTION: CAPABLE is a 5-month program to reduce the health effects of impaired physical function in low-income older adults by addressing individual capacity and the home environment. CAPABLE uses an interprofessional team (occupational therapist, registered nurse, handyman) to help older adults attain self-identified functional goals. MEASUREMENTS: Monthly average Medicaid expenditure and likelihood of high- or low-cost use of eight healthcare service categories. RESULTS: Average Medicaid spending per CAPABLE participant was $867 less per month than that of their matched comparison counterparts (observation period average 17 months, range 1-31 months). The largest differential reduction in expenditures were for inpatient care and long-term services and supports. CONCLUSION: CAPABLE is associated with lower likelihood of inpatient and long-term service use and lower overall Medicaid spending. The magnitude of reduced Medicaid spending could pay for CAPABLE delivery and provide further Medicaid program savings due to averted services use. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: CAPABLE for Frail dually eligible older adults NCT01743495 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01743495.

Machine-Learning Algorithms to Code Public Health Spending Accounts.

OBJECTIVES: Government public health expenditure data sets require time- and labor-intensive manipulation to summarize results that public health policy makers can use. Our objective was to compare the performances of machine-learning algorithms with manual classification of public health expenditures to determine if machines could provide a faster, cheaper alternative to manual classification. METHODS: We used machine-learning algorithms to replicate the process of manually classifying state public health expenditures, using the standardized public health spending categories from the Foundational Public Health Services model and a large data set from the US Census Bureau. We obtained a data set of 1.9 million individual expenditure items from 2000 to 2013. We collapsed these data into 147 280 summary expenditure records, and we followed a standardized method of manually classifying each expenditure record as public health, maybe public health, or not public health. We then trained 9 machine-learning algorithms to replicate the manual process. We calculated recall, precision, and coverage rates to measure the performance of individual and ensembled algorithms. RESULTS: Compared with manual classification, the machine-learning random forests algorithm produced 84% recall and 91% precision. With algorithm ensembling, we achieved our target criterion of 90% recall by using a consensus ensemble of ≥6 algorithms while still retaining 93% coverage, leaving only 7% of the summary expenditure records unclassified. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning can be a time- and cost-saving tool for estimating public health spending in the United States. It can be used with standardized public health spending categories based on the Foundational Public Health Services model to help parse public health expenditure information from other types of health-related spending, provide data that are more comparable across public health organizations, and evaluate the impact of evidence-based public health resource allocation.

Factors Contributing to Maternal and Child Mortality Reductions in 146 Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 1990 and 2010.

INTRODUCTION: From 1990-2010, worldwide child mortality declined by 43%, and maternal mortality declined by 40%. This paper compares two sources of progress: improvements in societal coverage of health determinants versus improvements in the impact of health determinants as a result of technical change. METHODS: This paper decomposes the progress made by 146 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in lowering childhood and maternal mortality into one component due to better health determinants like literacy, income, and health coverage and a second component due to changes in the impact of these health determinants. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Health determinants were selected from eight distinct health-impacting sectors. Regression models are used to estimate impact size in 1990 and again in 2010. Changes in the levels of health determinants were measured using secondary data. FINDINGS: The model shows that respectively 100% and 89% of the reductions in maternal and child mortality since 1990 were due to improvements in nationwide coverage of health determinants. The relative share of overall improvement attributable to any single determinant varies by country and by model specification. However, in aggregate, approximately 50% of the mortality reductions were due to improvements in the health sector, and the other 50% of the mortality reductions were due to gains outside the health sector. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, countries improved maternal and child health (MCH) from 1990 to 2010 mainly through improvements in the societal coverage of a broad array of health system, social, economic and environmental determinants of child health. These findings vindicate efforts by the global community to obtain such improvements, and align with the post-2015 development agenda that builds on the lessons from the MDGs and highlights the importance of promoting health and sustainable development in a more integrated manner across sectors.

Income Elasticity of Vaccines Spending versus General Healthcare Spending.

Using cross-country data on gross domestic product and national expenditure on vaccines, we estimate and compare the income elasticity of vaccine expenditure and general curative healthcare expenditure. This study provides the first evidence on the national income elasticity of vaccination spending. Both fixed and random effects models are applied to data from 84 countries from 2010 to 2011. The income elasticities for healthcare expenditure and vaccine expenditure are 0.844 and 0.336, respectively. Despite vaccines' high cost-effectiveness, the national propensity to spend income on vaccines as income increases lags behind general health care. The low income elasticity of vaccine spending means that relying on economic growth alone will provide an unacceptably slow trajectory to achieving high vaccine coverage levels. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a voucher scheme combined with obstetrical quality improvements: quasi experimental results from Uganda.

The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Uganda has declined significantly during the last 20 years, but Uganda is not on track to reach the millennium development goal of reducing MMR by 75% by 2015. More evidence on the cost-effectiveness of supply- and demand-side financing programs to reduce maternal mortality could inform future strategies. This study analyses the cost-effectiveness of a voucher scheme (VS) combined with health system strengthening in rural Uganda against the status quo. The VS, implemented in 2010, provided vouchers for delivery services at public and private health facilities (HF), as well as round-trip transportation provided by private sector workers (bicycles or motorcycles generally). The VS was part of a quasi-experimental non-randomized control trial. Improvements in institutional delivery coverage (IDC) rates can be estimated using a difference-in-difference impact evaluation method and the number of maternal lives saved is modelled using the evidence-based Lives Saved Tool. Costs were estimated from primary and secondary data. Results show that the demand for births at HFs enrolled in the VS increased by 52.3 percentage points. Out of this value, conservative estimates indicate that at least 9.4 percentage points are new HF users. This 9.4% bump in IDC implies 20 deaths averted, which is equivalent to 1356 disability-adjusted-life years (DALYs) averted. Cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the status quo and VS's most conservative effectiveness estimates shows that the VS had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per DALY averted of US$302 and per death averted of US$20 756. Although there are limitations in the data measures, a favourable cost-effectiveness ratio persists even under extreme assumptions. Demand-side vouchers combined with supply-side financing programs can increase attended deliveries and reduce maternal mortality at a cost that is acceptable.

Success factors for reducing maternal and child mortality.

Reducing maternal and child mortality is a priority in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and will likely remain so after 2015. Evidence exists on the investments, interventions and enabling policies required. Less is understood about why some countries achieve faster progress than other comparable countries. The Success Factors for Women's and Children's Health studies sought to address this knowledge gap using statistical and econometric analyses of data from 144 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) over 20 years; Boolean, qualitative comparative analysis; a literature review; and country-specific reviews in 10 fast-track countries for MDGs 4 and 5a. There is no standard formula--fast-track countries deploy tailored strategies and adapt quickly to change. However, fast-track countries share some effective approaches in addressing three main areas to reduce maternal and child mortality. First, these countries engage multiple sectors to address crucial health determinants. Around half the reduction in child mortality in LMICs since 1990 is the result of health sector investments, the other half is attributed to investments made in sectors outside health. Second, these countries use strategies to mobilize partners across society, using timely, robust evidence for decision-making and accountability and a triple planning approach to consider immediate needs, long-term vision and adaptation to change. Third, the countries establish guiding principles that orient progress, align stakeholder action and achieve results over time. This evidence synthesis contributes to global learning on accelerating improvements in women's and children's health towards 2015 and beyond.

La réduction de la mortalité maternelle et infantile est une priorité des objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement (OMD) et le restera probablement après l'échéance de 2015. Il existe des données sur les investissements, les interventions et les politiques habilitantes nécessaires. On comprend mal pourquoi certains pays ont réalisé des progrès plus rapidement que d'autres pays comparables. Les Facteurs de réussite des études sur la santé des femmes et des enfants ont cherché à combler ce manque de connaissances en utilisant les analyses statistiques et économétriques des données provenant de 144 pays à faible revenu et à revenu intermédiaire et recueillies depuis 20 ans: une analyse comparative qualitative booléenne; une étude bibliographique et des études spécifiques à chaque pays pour les 10 pays à progression rapide pour les points 4 et 5a des OMD. Il n'existe pas de formule standard ­ les pays à progression rapide ont déployé des stratégies personnalisées et se sont adaptés rapidement aux changements. Cependant, ces pays ont en commun des approches efficaces visant 3 grands axes afin de réduire la mortalité maternelle et infantile. Premièrement, ils impliquent de nombreux secteurs pour traiter les facteurs déterminants et cruciaux pour la santé. Près de la moitié de la réduction de la mortalité infantile dans les pays à faible revenu et à revenu intermédiaire depuis 1990 résulte des investissements dans le secteur de la santé, l'autre moitié étant attribuée aux investissements réalisés dans les secteurs extérieurs à la santé. Deuxièmement, ces pays utilisent des stratégies pour mobiliser les partenaires dans la société, en utilisant des données solides et opportunes pour la prise de décisions et la responsabilisation, ainsi qu'une approche de planification triple pour prendre en considération les besoins immédiats, la vision à long terme et l'adaptation aux changements. Troisièmement, ces pays établissent des principes directeurs qui orientent les progrès, harmonisent les actions des parties prenantes et génèrent des résultats dans le temps. Cette synthèse de données contribue à l'ensemble des connaissances requises pour accélérer les améliorations sur la santé des femmes et des enfants en vue de l'échéance de 2015 et au-delà.

La reducción de la mortalidad materna e infantil es una prioridad en los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio (ODM), y probablemente lo seguirá siendo después de 2015. Existen evidencias sobre las inversiones, las intervenciones y las políticas necesarias, pero se sabe menos acerca de por qué algunos países logran un progreso más rápido que otros países comparables. Los estudios relativos a los Factores de Éxito en la Salud de las Mujeres y los Niños han tratado de abordar esta brecha de conocimiento por medio de análisis estadísticos y econométricos de datos de 144 países de ingresos bajos y medianos (PIBM) a lo largo de más de 20 años, análisis comparativos cualitativos booleanos, revisión de la literatura y revisiones específicas de cada país en 10 países bien encarrilados para los ODM 4 y 5a. No existe una fórmula estándar, estos países despliegan estrategias a medida y se adaptan rápidamente a los cambios. Sin embargo, comparten ciertos enfoques eficaces a la hora de abordar tres áreas principales para reducir la mortalidad materna e infantil. En primer lugar, involucran a numerosos sectores para hacer frente a los factores sanitarios decisivos. Alrededor de la mitad de la reducción de la mortalidad infantil en los PIBM desde 1990 es el resultado de inversiones en el sector de la salud, y la otra mitad se atribuye a las inversiones realizadas en sectores fuera del ámbito sanitario. En segundo lugar, estos países utilizan estrategias para movilizar a socios a través de la sociedad, utilizando evidencias oportunas y sólidas para la toma de decisiones y la rendición de cuentas, así como un enfoque de planificación triple para considerar las necesidades inmediatas, la visión a largo plazo y la adaptación al cambio. En tercer lugar, los países establecen principios rectores que orientan el progreso, armonizan las acciones de las partes interesadas y logran resultados en el tiempo. Este compendio de evidencias contribuye al aprendizaje global sobre cómo acelerar las mejoras en la salud de mujeres y niños hacia el 2015 y más adelante.