The K-P algorithm: a new first-trimester growth model - comparison with other formulae and correlations with recorded embryonic lengths.

OBJECTIVE: To generate and validate individually fitted first-trimester growth curves using a new growth model. Secondary aims were to compare this new model with actual recorded embryonic measurements and validate its predictive accuracy. METHODS: A prospective study of women presenting to the Early Pregnancy Unit in the first trimester. Women with viable singleton pregnancies at the end of the first trimester who had had at least two crown-rump length (CRL) measurements were selected. An individual power function of CRL was derived from serial CRL measurements. Individual curves were fitted using computer software to estimate a dating adjustment factor ('k'), and a growth coefficient ('P') for each case. The predictive accuracy of the growth curves was then tested in a validation subset of the population that had a third CRL measurement. The population average curve from the developed model was also extrapolated to day 27 menstrual age (Carnegie stage 6), day 30 menstrual age (Carnegie stage 7) and day 84 menstrual age, and values were compared to previously reported measurements. RESULTS: 326 viable pregnancies were selected for CRL growth curve development. The mean time interval between CRL measurements was 20.5 days (range 2-44). The mean value for 'P' was 2.058, and for 'k' 24.6. Testing the model on a subset of 81 cases showed that the average error in predicting a third CRL measurement was 1% (SD 9.1%). CONCLUSIONS: These new, individually fitted growth curves for the first trimester correlate more closely with the recorded embryonic lengths than other standards.

Management of women referred to an acute gynecology unit: impact of an ultrasound-based model of care.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the introduction of an ultrasound-based model of care for women with acute gynecological complications. METHODS: This was a prospective comparative study of women attending an ultrasound-based acute gynecology unit (AGU) at the Nepean Hospital during a 6-week period 4 months after the unit's inception (new model of care), and a group of women presenting at the hospital during a similar period 6 months immediately prior to the unit's inception (traditional model). In the new model of care, ultrasound was performed at the time of the initial assessment by a senior clinician. The main outcome measures were admission rates and occupied bed days. RESULTS: The study included 290 consecutive women with complete data, 133 before and 157 after the introduction of the AGU. Compared with the group presenting before establishment of the AGU, the group who attended the AGU had significantly lower admission rate (7% vs. 36%, P < 0.0001) and significantly shorter time to see a trainee gynecologist (mean, 172 vs. 205 min, P = 0.00089), time to ultrasound examination (mean, 199 vs. 533 min, P < 0.0001), length of stay as an outpatient (mean, 45 vs. 248 min, P < 0.0001), fewer occupied bed days (total, 30 vs. 85 days, P < 0.0001) and lower surgical intervention rates (12% vs. 29%, P = 0.00025). They also had significantly higher expectant management rate (26 vs. 8%, P = 0.00023). The extrapolated annual reduction in occupied bed days represented a total financial saving of $ 257 617 Australian dollars. CONCLUSIONS: In the AGU, the availability of ultrasound carried out by a senior clinician with an interest in gynecological emergencies may lead to a reduction in admissions and improved outcomes.

Expectant management of spontaneous first-trimester miscarriage: prospective validation of the '2-week rule'.

OBJECTIVES: To assess uptake and success of expectant management of first-trimester miscarriage for a finite 14-day period, in order to evaluate our '2-week rule' of management. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study evaluating our proposed 2-week rule of expectant management, which is based on the finding that women managed expectantly are most likely to miscarry in the first 14 days and that to wait longer than 2 weeks without intervention does not confer a greater chance of successful resolution. Eligible women diagnosed with first-trimester miscarriage were offered a choice of expectant management or surgical evacuation under general anesthesia. Inclusion criteria for expectant management were: diagnosis of incomplete miscarriage (heterogeneous tissue, with or without a gestational sac, seen on ultrasound in the uterine cavity and distorting the endometrial midline echo), missed miscarriage (crown-rump length (CRL) >or= 6 mm with absent fetal heart activity) or empty sac (anembryonic pregnancy) based on transvaginal ultrasonography. Women with complete miscarriage, missed miscarriage at the nuchal translucency scan, molar pregnancy or miscarriage >or= 3 weeks in duration (missed miscarriage in which the CRL was >or= 3 weeks smaller than the gestational age based on last menstrual period), or with signs of infection or hemodynamic instability were excluded. Expectant management consisted of weekly ultrasonography for 2 weeks. If after 2 weeks resolution was not complete, surgery was advised. RESULTS: 1062 consecutive pregnant women underwent transvaginal ultrasound examination. Of these, 38.6% (410/1062) were diagnosed with miscarriage, of whom 241 (59%) were symptomatic at the time of presentation and 282 were eligible for the study. These were offered expectant management and 80% (227/282) took up this option. 11% (24/227) were lost to follow-up; therefore, complete data were available on 203 women. Overall spontaneous resolution of miscarriage at 2 weeks was observed in 61% (124/203) of women. Rates of spontaneous resolution at 2 weeks according to the type of miscarriage were 71% for incomplete miscarriage, 53% for empty sac and 35% for missed miscarriage. The incidence of unplanned emergency dilatation and curettage due to gynecological infection or hemorrhage was 2.5% (5/203). CONCLUSIONS: Expectant management based on the 2-week rule is a viable and safe option for women with first-trimester miscarriage. Women with an incomplete miscarriage are apparently the most suitable for expectant management.