Ancestral Origin and Dissemination Dynamics of Reemerging Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae, Haiti.

The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was thought to have ended in 2019, and the Prime Minister of Haiti declared the country cholera-free in February 2022. On September 25, 2022, cholera cases were again identified in Port-au-Prince. We compared genomic data from 42 clinical Vibrio cholerae strains from 2022 with data from 327 other strains from Haiti and 1,824 strains collected worldwide. The 2022 isolates were homogeneous and closely related to clinical and environmental strains circulating in Haiti during 2012-2019. Bayesian hypothesis testing indicated that the 2022 clinical isolates shared their most recent common ancestor with an environmental lineage circulating in Haiti in July 2018. Our findings strongly suggest that toxigenic V. cholerae O1 can persist for years in aquatic environmental reservoirs and ignite new outbreaks. These results highlight the urgent need for improved public health infrastructure and possible periodic vaccination campaigns to maintain population immunity against V. cholerae.

Molecular Basis of the Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 Serotype Switch from Ogawa to Inaba in Haiti.

Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa was introduced involuntarily into Haiti in October 2010, and virtually all of the clinical strains isolated during the first 5 years of the epidemic were Ogawa. Inaba strains were identified intermittently prior to 2015, with diverse mutations resulting in a common phenotype. In 2015, the percentage of clinical infections due to the Inaba serotype began to rapidly increase, with Inaba supplanting Ogawa as the dominant serotype during the subsequent 4 years. We investigated the molecular basis of the serotype switch and confirmed that all Inaba strains had the same level of mRNA expression of the wbeT genes, as well as the same translation levels for the truncated WbeT proteins in the V. cholerae Inaba isolates. Neither wbeT gene expression levels, differential mutations, or truncation size of the WbeT proteins appeared to be responsible for the successful Inaba switch in 2015. Our phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that the V. cholerae Inaba strains in Haiti evolved directly from Ogawa strains and that a significant increase of diversifying selection at the population level occurred at the time of the Ogawa-Inaba switch. We conclude that the emergence of the Inaba serotype was driven by diversifying selection, independent of the mutational pattern in the wbeT gene. IMPORTANCE Our phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that Vibrio cholerae Inaba strains in Haiti evolved directly from Ogawa strains. Our results support the hypothesis that after an initial Ogawa-dominated epidemic wave, V. cholerae Inaba was able to become the dominant strain thanks to a selective advantage driven by ongoing diversifying selection, independently from the mutational pattern in the wbeT gene.

Exploring convolutional neural networks and spatial video for on-the-ground mapping in informal settlements.

BACKGROUND: The health burden in developing world informal settlements often coincides with a lack of spatial data that could be used to guide intervention strategies. Spatial video (SV) has proven to be a useful tool to collect environmental and social data at a granular scale, though the effort required to turn these spatially encoded video frames into maps limits sustainability and scalability. In this paper we explore the use of convolution neural networks (CNN) to solve this problem by automatically identifying disease related environmental risks in a series of SV collected from Haiti. Our objective is to determine the potential of machine learning in health risk mapping for these environments by assessing the challenges faced in adequately training the required classification models. RESULTS: We show that SV can be a suitable source for automatically identifying and extracting health risk features using machine learning. While well-defined objects such as drains, buckets, tires and animals can be efficiently classified, more amorphous masses such as trash or standing water are difficult to classify. Our results further show that variations in the number of image frames selected, the image resolution, and combinations of these can be used to improve the overall model performance. CONCLUSION: Machine learning in combination with spatial video can be used to automatically identify environmental risks associated with common health problems in informal settlements, though there are likely to be variations in the type of data needed for training based on location. Success based on the risk type being identified are also likely to vary geographically. However, we are confident in identifying a series of best practices for data collection, model training and performance in these settings. We also discuss the next step of testing these findings in other environments, and how adding in the simultaneously collected geographic data could be used to create an automatic health risk mapping tool.

Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae evolution and establishment of reservoirs in aquatic ecosystems.

The spread of cholera in the midst of an epidemic is largely driven by direct transmission from person to person, although it is well-recognized that Vibrio cholerae is also capable of growth and long-term survival in aquatic ecosystems. While prior studies have shown that aquatic reservoirs are important in the persistence of the disease on the Indian subcontinent, an epidemiological view postulating that locally evolving environmental V. cholerae contributes to outbreaks outside Asia remains debated. The single-source introduction of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in Haiti, one of the largest outbreaks occurring this century, with 812,586 suspected cases and 9,606 deaths reported through July 2018, provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the role of aquatic reservoirs and assess bacterial transmission dynamics across environmental boundaries. To this end, we investigated the phylogeography of both clinical and aquatic toxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolates and show robust evidence of the establishment of aquatic reservoirs as well as ongoing evolution of V. cholerae isolates from aquatic sites. Novel environmental lineages emerged from sequential population bottlenecks, carrying mutations potentially involved in adaptation to the aquatic ecosystem. Based on such empirical data, we developed a mixed-transmission dynamic model of V. cholerae, where aquatic reservoirs actively contribute to genetic diversification and epidemic emergence, which underscores the complexity of transmission pathways in epidemics and endemic settings and the need for long-term investments in cholera control at both human and environmental levels.

Micro-Space Complexity and Context in the Space-Time Variation in Enteric Disease Risk for Three Informal Settlements of Port au Prince, Haiti.

Diffusion of cholera and other diarrheal diseases in an informal settlement is a product of multiple behavioral, environmental and spatial risk factors. One of the most important components is the spatial interconnections among water points, drainage ditches, toilets and the intervening environment. This risk is also longitudinal and variable as water points fluctuate in relation to bacterial contamination. In this paper we consider part of this micro space complexity for three informal settlements in Port au Prince, Haiti. We expand on more typical epidemiological analysis of fecal coliforms at water points, drainage ditches and ocean sites by considering the importance of single point location fluctuation coupled with recording micro-space environmental conditions around each sample site. Results show that spatial variation in enteric disease risk occurs within neighborhoods, and that while certain trends are evident, the degree of individual site fluctuation should question the utility of both cross-sectional and more aggregate analysis. Various factors increase the counts of fecal coliform present, including the type of water point, how water was stored at that water point, and the proximity of the water point to local drainage. Some locations fluctuated considerably between being safe and unsafe on a monthly basis. Next steps to form a more comprehensive contextualized understanding of enteric disease risk in these environments should include the addition of behavioral factors and local insight.

Non-toxigenic environmental Vibrio cholerae O1 strain from Haiti provides evidence of pre-pandemic cholera in Hispaniola.

Vibrio cholerae is ubiquitous in aquatic environments, with environmental toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains serving as a source for recurrent cholera epidemics and pandemic disease. However, a number of questions remain about long-term survival and evolution of V. cholerae strains within these aquatic environmental reservoirs. Through monitoring of the Haitian aquatic environment following the 2010 cholera epidemic, we isolated two novel non-toxigenic (ctxA/B-negative) Vibrio cholerae O1. These two isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing and were investigated through comparative genomics and Bayesian coalescent analysis. These isolates cluster in the evolutionary tree with strains responsible for clinical cholera, possessing genomic components of 6th and 7th pandemic lineages, and diverge from "modern" cholera strains around 1548 C.E. [95% HPD: 1532-1555]. Vibrio Pathogenicity Island (VPI)-1 was present; however, SXT/R391-family ICE and VPI-2 were absent. Rugose phenotype conversion and vibriophage resistance evidenced adaption for persistence in aquatic environments. The identification of V. cholerae O1 strains in the Haitian environment, which predate the first reported cholera pandemic in 1817, broadens our understanding of the history of pandemics. It also raises the possibility that these and similar environmental strains could acquire virulence genes from the 2010 Haitian epidemic clone, including the cholera toxin producing CTXϕ.

Major Shift of Toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from Ogawa to Inaba Serotype Isolated from Clinical and Environmental Samples in Haiti.

In October of 2010, an outbreak of cholera was confirmed in Haiti for the first time in more than a century. A single clone of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 biotype El Tor serotype Ogawa strain was implicated as the cause. Five years after the onset of cholera, in October, 2015, we have discovered a major switch (ranging from 7 to 100%) from Ogawa serotype to Inaba serotype. Furthermore, using wbeT gene sequencing and comparative sequence analysis, we now demonstrate that, among 2013 and 2015 Inaba isolates, the wbeT gene, responsible for switching Ogawa to Inaba serotype, sustained a unique nucleotide mutation not found in isolates obtained from Haiti in 2012. Moreover, we show that, environmental Inaba isolates collected in 2015 have the identical mutations found in the 2015 clinical isolates. Our data indicate that toxigenic V. cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa can rapidly change its serotype to Inaba, and has the potential to cause disease in individuals who have acquired immunity against Ogawa serotype. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 and cholera in countries with established endemic disease.

Adjusting for unmeasured confounding due to either of two crossed factors with a logistic regression model.

Motivated by an investigation of the effect of surface water temperature on the presence of Vibrio cholerae in water samples collected from different fixed surface water monitoring sites in Haiti in different months, we investigated methods to adjust for unmeasured confounding due to either of the two crossed factors site and month. In the process, we extended previous methods that adjust for unmeasured confounding due to one nesting factor (such as site, which nests the water samples from different months) to the case of two crossed factors. First, we developed a conditional pseudolikelihood estimator that eliminates fixed effects for the levels of each of the crossed factors from the estimating equation. Using the theory of U-Statistics for independent but non-identically distributed vectors, we show that our estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, but that its variance depends on the nuisance parameters and thus cannot be easily estimated. Consequently, we apply our estimator in conjunction with a permutation test, and we investigate use of the pigeonhole bootstrap and the jackknife for constructing confidence intervals. We also incorporate our estimator into a diagnostic test for a logistic mixed model with crossed random effects and no unmeasured confounding. For comparison, we investigate between-within models extended to two crossed factors. These generalized linear mixed models include covariate means for each level of each factor in order to adjust for the unmeasured confounding. We conduct simulation studies, and we apply the methods to the Haitian data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mapping to Support Fine Scale Epidemiological Cholera Investigations: A Case Study of Spatial Video in Haiti.

The cartographic challenge in many developing world environments suffering a high disease burden is a lack of granular environmental covariates suitable for modeling disease outcomes. As a result, epidemiological questions, such as how disease diffuses at intra urban scales are extremely difficult to answer. This paper presents a novel geospatial methodology, spatial video, which can be used to collect and map environmental covariates, while also supporting field epidemiology. An example of epidemic cholera in a coastal town of Haiti is used to illustrate the potential of this new method. Water risks from a 2012 spatial video collection are used to guide a 2014 survey, which concurrently included the collection of water samples, two of which resulted in positive lab results "of interest" (bacteriophage specific for clinical cholera strains) to the current cholera situation. By overlaying sample sites on 2012 water risk maps, a further fifteen proposed water sample locations are suggested. These resulted in a third spatial video survey and an additional "of interest" positive water sample. A potential spatial connection between the "of interest" water samples is suggested. The paper concludes with how spatial video can be an integral part of future fine-scale epidemiological investigations for different pathogens.

Correction: Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004153.].

Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic.

In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. cholerae O1 by humans into the environment, as well as the effects of precipitation and water temperature on the concentration and survival of V. cholerae in aquatic reservoirs. Although the number of reported cholera cases has declined compared to the initial outbreak in 2010, the increase in the number of susceptible population members and the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment estimated by the model indicate that without further improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructures, intermittent cholera outbreaks are likely to continue in Haiti.

Stx-Producing Shigella Species From Patients in Haiti: An Emerging Pathogen With the Potential for Global Spread.

Shiga toxins (Stx) are commonly produced by Shigella dysenteriae serotype 1 and Stx-producing Escherichia coli. However, the toxin genes have been detected in additional Shigella species. We recently reported the emergence of Stx-producing Shigella in travelers in the United States and France who had recently visited Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic). In this study, we confirm this epidemiological link by identifying Stx-producing Shigella from Haitian patients attending clinics near Port-au-Prince. We also demonstrate that the bacteriophage encoding Stx is capable of dissemination to stx-negative Shigella species found in Haiti, suggesting that Stx-producing Shigella may become more widespread within that region.

Increased isolation frequency of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 from environmental monitoring sites in Haiti.

Since the identification of the first cholera case in 2010, the disease has spread in epidemic form throughout the island nation of Haiti; as of 2014, about 700,000 cholera cases have been reported, with over 8,000 deaths. While case numbers have declined, the more fundamental question of whether the causative bacterium, Vibrio cholerae has established an environmental reservoir in the surface waters of Haiti remains to be elucidated. In a previous study conducted between April 2012 and March 2013, we reported the isolation of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from surface waters in the Ouest Department. After a second year of surveillance (April 2013 to March 2014) using identical methodology, we observed a more than five-fold increase in the number of water samples containing culturable V. cholerae O1 compared to the previous year (1.7% vs 8.6%), with double the number of sites having at least one positive sample (58% vs 20%). Both seasonal water temperatures and precipitation were significantly related to the frequency of isolation. Our data suggest that toxigenic V. cholerae O1 are becoming more common in surface waters in Haiti; while the basis for this increase is uncertain, our findings raise concerns that environmental reservoirs are being established.

Spectrum of outpatient illness in a school-based cohort in Haiti, with a focus on diarrheal pathogens.

Currently, there are only limited data available on rates of major diagnostic categories of illnesses among Haitian children. We have established a cohort of 1,245 students attending schools run by the Christianville Foundation in the Gressier/Leogane region of Haiti, for whom our group provides primary medical care. Among 1,357 clinic visits during the 2012-2013 academic year, the main disease categories (with rates per 1,000 child years of observation) included acute respiratory infection (ARI) (385.6 cases/1,000 child years of observation), gastrointestinal complaints (277.8 cases/1,000 child years), febrile illness (235.0 cases/1,000 child years), and skin infections (151.7 cases/1,000 child years). The most common diarrheal pathogen was enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (present in 17% of children with diarrhea); Vibrio cholerae O1 and norovirus were the next most common. Our data highlight the importance of better defining etiologies for ARI and febrile illnesses and continuing problems of diarrheal illness in this region, including mild cases of cholera, which would not have been diagnosed without laboratory screening.

Phylodynamic analysis of clinical and environmental Vibrio cholerae isolates from Haiti reveals diversification driven by positive selection.

UNLABELLED: Phylodynamic analysis of genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data is a powerful tool to investigate underlying evolutionary processes of bacterial epidemics. The method was applied to investigate a collection of 65 clinical and environmental isolates of Vibrio cholerae from Haiti collected between 2010 and 2012. Characterization of isolates recovered from environmental samples identified a total of four toxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolates, four non-O1/O139 isolates, and a novel nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolate with the classical tcpA gene. Phylogenies of strains were inferred from genome-wide SNPs using coalescent-based demographic models within a Bayesian framework. A close phylogenetic relationship between clinical and environmental toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains was observed. As cholera spread throughout Haiti between October 2010 and August 2012, the population size initially increased and then fluctuated over time. Selection analysis along internal branches of the phylogeny showed a steady accumulation of synonymous substitutions and a progressive increase of nonsynonymous substitutions over time, suggesting diversification likely was driven by positive selection. Short-term accumulation of nonsynonymous substitutions driven by selection may have significant implications for virulence, transmission dynamics, and even vaccine efficacy. IMPORTANCE: Cholera, a dehydrating diarrheal disease caused by toxigenic strains of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, emerged in 2010 in Haiti, a country where there were no available records on cholera over the past 100 years. While devastating in terms of morbidity and mortality, the outbreak provided a unique opportunity to study the evolutionary dynamics of V. cholerae and its environmental presence. The present study expands on previous work and provides an in-depth phylodynamic analysis inferred from genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms of clinical and environmental strains from dispersed geographic settings in Haiti over a 2-year period. Our results indicate that even during such a short time scale, V. cholerae in Haiti has undergone evolution and diversification driven by positive selection, which may have implications for understanding the global clinical and epidemiological patterns of the disease. Furthermore, the continued presence of the epidemic strain in Haitian aquatic environments has implications for transmission.

High-frequency rugose exopolysaccharide production by Vibrio cholerae strains isolated in Haiti.

In October, 2010, epidemic cholera was reported for the first time in Haiti in over 100 years. Establishment of cholera endemicity in Haiti will be dependent in large part on the continued presence of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in aquatic reservoirs. The rugose phenotype of V. cholerae, characterized by exopolysaccharide production that confers resistance to environmental stress, is a potential contributor to environmental persistence. Using a microbiologic medium promoting high-frequency conversion of smooth to rugose (S-R) phenotype, 80 (46.5%) of 172 V. cholerae strains isolated from clinical and environmental sources in Haiti were able to convert to a rugose phenotype. Toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains isolated at the beginning of the epidemic (2010) were significantly less likely to shift to a rugose phenotype than clinical strains isolated in 2012/2013, or environmental strains. Frequency of rugose conversion was influenced by incubation temperature and time. Appearance of the biofilm produced by a Haitian clinical rugose strain (altered biotype El Tor HC16R) differed from that of a typical El Tor rugose strain (N16961R) by confocal microscopy. On whole-genome SNP analysis, there was no phylogenetic clustering of strains showing an ability to shift to a rugose phenotype. Our data confirm the ability of Haitian clinical (and environmental) strains to shift to a protective rugose phenotype, and suggest that factors such as temperature influence the frequency of transition to this phenotype.

Feasibility of the hydrogen sulfide test for the assessment of drinking water quality in post-earthquake Haiti.

In 2010, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck Haiti, severely damaging the drinking and wastewater infrastructure and leaving millions homeless. Compounding this problem, the introduction of Vibrio cholerae resulted in a massive cholera outbreak that infected over 700,000 people and threatened the safety of Haiti's drinking water. To mitigate this public health crisis, non-government organizations installed thousands of wells to provide communities with safe drinking water. However, despite increased access, Haiti currently lacks the monitoring capacity to assure the microbial safety of any of its water resources. For these reasons, this study was designed to assess the feasibility of using a simple, low-cost method to detect indicators of fecal contamination of drinking water that could be implemented at the community level. Water samples from 358 sources of drinking water in the Léogâne flood basin were screened with a commercially available hydrogen sulfide test and a standard membrane method for the enumeration of thermotolerant coliforms. When compared with the gold standard method, the hydrogen sulfide test had a sensitivity of 65 % and a specificity of 93 %. While the sensitivity of the assay increased at higher fecal coliform concentrations, it never exceeded 88 %, even with fecal coliform concentrations greater than 100 colony-forming units per 100 ml. While its simplicity makes the hydrogen sulfide test attractive for assessing water quality in low-resource settings, the low sensitivity raises concerns about its use as the sole indicator of the presence or absence of fecal coliforms in individual or community water sources.

Household-level spatiotemporal patterns of incidence of cholera, Haiti, 2011.

A cholera outbreak began in Haiti during October, 2010. Spatiotemporal patterns of household-level cholera in Ouest Department showed that the initial clusters tended to follow major roadways; subsequent clusters occurred further inland. Our data highlight transmission pathway complexities and the need for case and household-level analysis to understand disease spread and optimize interventions.

Water-related infrastructure in a region of post-earthquake Haiti: high levels of fecal contamination and need for ongoing monitoring.

We inventoried non-surface water sources in the Leogane and Gressier region of Haiti (approximately 270 km(2)) in 2012 and 2013 and screened water from 345 sites for fecal coliforms and Vibrio cholerae. An international organization/non-governmental organization responsible for construction could be identified for only 56% of water points evaluated. Sixteen percent of water points were non-functional at any given time; 37% had evidence of fecal contamination, with spatial clustering of contaminated sites. Among improved water sources (76% of sites), 24.6% had fecal coliforms versus 80.9% in unimproved sources. Fecal contamination levels increased significantly from 36% to 51% immediately after the passage of Tropical Storm Sandy in October of 2012, with a return to 34% contamination in March of 2013. Long-term sustainability of potable water delivery at a regional scale requires ongoing assessment of water quality, functionality, and development of community-based management schemes supported by a national plan for the management of potable water.

Monitoring water sources for environmental reservoirs of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1, Haiti.

An epidemic of cholera infections was documented in Haiti for the first time in more than 100 years during October 2010. Cases have continued to occur, raising the question of whether the microorganism has established environmental reservoirs in Haiti. We monitored 14 environmental sites near the towns of Gressier and Leogane during April 2012-March 2013. Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor biotype strains were isolated from 3 (1.7%) of 179 water samples; nontoxigenic O1 V. cholerae was isolated from an additional 3 samples. All samples containing V. cholerae O1 also contained non-O1 V. cholerae. V. cholerae O1 was isolated only when water temperatures were ≥31°C. Our data substantiate the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in the aquatic environment in Haiti. These isolations may reflect establishment of long-term environmental reservoirs in Haiti, which may complicate eradication of cholera from this coastal country.