Predicting the short and long term effects of food price inflation, armed conflicts, and climate variability on global acute malnutrition in Somalia.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition poses a substantial challenge in Somalia, impacting approximately 1.8 million children. This critical issue is exacerbated by a multifaceted interplay of factors. Consequently, this study seeks to examine the long-term and short-term effects of armed conflicts, food price inflation, and climate variability on global acute malnutrition in Somalia. METHODS: The study utilized secondary data spanning from January 2015 to December 2022, sourced from relevant databases. Two distinct analytical approaches were employed to comprehensively investigate the dynamics of global acute malnutrition in Somalia. Firstly, dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulations were applied, allowing for a nuanced understanding of the short and long-term effects of armed conflicts, food price inflation, and climate variability on malnutrition. Additionally, the study employed kernel-based regularized least squares, a sophisticated statistical technique, to further enhance the robustness of the findings. The analysis was conducted using STATA version 17. RESULTS: In the short run, armed conflicts and food price inflation exhibit positive associations with global acute malnutrition, particularly in conflict-prone areas and during inflationary periods. Moreover, climatic variables, specifically temperature and rainfall, demonstrate positive associations. It is important to note that temperature lacks a statistically significant relationship with global acute malnutrition in the short run. In the long run, armed conflicts and food price inflation maintain persistent impacts on global acute malnutrition, as confirmed by the dynamic ARDL simulations model. Furthermore, both temperature and rainfall continue to show positive associations with global acute malnutrition, but it is worth noting that temperature still exhibits a non-significant relationship. The results from kernel-based regularized least squares were consistent, further enhancing the robustness of the findings. CONCLUSIONS: Increased armed conflicts, food price inflation, temperature, and rainfall were associated with increased global acute malnutrition. Strategies such as stabilizing conflict-prone regions, diplomatic interventions, and peace-building initiatives are crucial, along with measures to control food price inflation. Implementing climate adaptation strategies is vital to counter temperature changes and fluctuating rainfall patterns, emphasizing the need for resilience-building. Policymakers and humanitarian organizations can leverage these insights to design targeted interventions, focusing on conflict resolution, food security, and climate resilience to enhance Somalia's overall nutritional well-being.

Prevalence and factors associated with ever had road traffic accidents among drivers in Hargeisa city, Somaliland, 2022.

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a major cause of morbidity in Somaliland. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and factors associated with traffic-related incidents in Hargeisa city. A cross-sectional study was conducted between January and March 2022, utilizing a mixed approach involving quantitative and qualitative research approaches. Key informant interviews were conducted with 15 government officials, and structured questionnaires were administered to 387 drivers. Cluster sampling and purposive sampling were employed to select drivers and government officials, respectively. Data collection was performed using the Kobo Collect application, followed by cleaning and analysis using IBM SPSS version 25. Descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression, and chi-square tests were utilized for data analysis. The findings revealed an increasing trend of RTAs in Somaliland over the past 11 years (2011-2021). Moreover, the prevalence of RTAs in the past two years alone was determined to be 28.17% (CI: 23.67, 32.63). Factors significantly associated with RTAs in the research area included the type of vehicle, particularly Minibus (AOR = 3.249, CI: 1.022, 10.322) and Vitz (AOR = 2.325, CI: 1.092, 5.494), encountering aggressive behavior from other drivers (AOR = 1.790, CI: 1.013, 3.162), vehicles less than 4 years (AOR = 0.446, CI: 0.258, 0.771), traffic law violations (AOR = 2.726, CI: 1.296, 5.735), and the presence of traffic campaigns (AOR = 0.465, CI: 0.236, 0.917). The study recommends increasing awareness of RTAs among drivers and pedestrians, regular vehicle maintenance checks, enforcement of traffic laws, and increased police presence in road management to reduce fatalities associated with RTAs.