RESUMO
The predictive accuracy of mathematical models representing anything ranging from the meteorological to the biological system profoundly depends on the quality of model parameters derived from experimental data. Hence, robust sensitivity analysis (SA) of these critical model parameters aids in sifting the influential from the negligible out of typically vast parameter regimes, thus illuminating key components of the system under study. We here move beyond traditional local sensitivity analysis to the adoption of global SA techniques. Partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) based on Latin hypercube sampling is compared with the variance-based Sobol method. We selected for this SA investigation an infection model for the hepatitis-B virus (HBV) that describes infection dynamics and clearance of HBV in the liver [Murray & Goyal, 2015]. The model tracks viral particles such as the tenacious and nearly ineradicable covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) embedded in infected nuclei and an HBV protein known as p36. Our application of these SA methods to the HBV model illuminates, especially over time, the quantitative relationships between cccDNA synthesis rate and p36 synthesis and export. Our results reinforce previous observations that the viral protein, p36, is by far the most influential factor for cccDNA replication. Moreover, both methods are capable of finding crucial parameters of the model. Though the Sobol method is independent of model structure (e.g., linearity and monotonicity) and well suited for SA, our results ensure that LHS-PRCC suffices for SA of a non-linear model if it is monotonic.
RESUMO
The thermoelastic characteristics of plasma-sprayed thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) have been analyzed using mathematical modeling. Two types of TBC model, cylinder and circular disk which are commercial plasma-sprayed TBCs, subjecting to symmetric temperature distribution to the radial and longitudinal directions, respectively, were taken into consideration. Based on the thermoelastic theories, a second order ordinary differential equation was derived for the cylinder model and a pair of partial differential equations were set up for the circular disk model. The analytic solution was obtained from the ordinary differential equation, while a finite volume method was developed for numerical solutions to the pair of partial differential equations due to the complexity of governing equations. The thermoelastic characteristics of TBC models, such as temperature distributions, displacements, and stresses, were displayed according to the obtained solutions. The rate of heat conduction in the section of the top coat is relatively slow in comparison with the substrate, and no profound difference appears in the temperature distribution between two TBC models. The highest longitudinal tensile stress is expressed at the bond coat of both models, and the substrate is under the compressive stresses to the circumferential direction. While the cylinder expands to the positive longitudinal direction only, the expansion in the circular disk occurs to both the positive and negative longitudinal directions. Relatively large displacement and stresses exhibit in the cylinder as compared with the circular disk. In the circular disk, the stresses to the radial direction undulate at each section, and the displacement profile displays that the width of the circular disk is slightly narrowed. The results demonstrate that the mechanical and thermal properties of the top and bond coats are the crucial factors to be considered in controlling the thermoelastic characteristics of plasma-sprayed TBCs.
