Material conflictsThe War Below Ernest Scheyder One Signal Publishers/Atria, 2024. 384 pp.

A journalist probes tensions surrounding two minerals that are key to green technologies.

Natural resources modulate the nexus between environmental shocks and human mobility.

In the context of natural resource degradation, migration can act as means of adaptation both for those leaving and those supported by remittances. Migration can also result from an inability to adapt in-situ, with people forced to move, sometimes to situations of worse or of the same exposure to environmental threats. The deleterious impacts of resource degradation have been proposed in some situations to limit the ability to move. In this contribution, we use remote sensed information coupled with population density data for continental Africa to assess quantitatively the prevalence of migration and immobility in the context of one cause of resource degradation: drought. We find that the effect of drought on mobility is amplified with the frequency at which droughts are experienced and that higher income households appear more resilient to climatic shocks and are less likely to resort to mobility as an adaptation response.

Closing the Infrastructure Gap for Decarbonization: The Case for an Integrated Mineral Supply Agreement.

Significant amounts of feedstock metals will be required to build the infrastructure for the green energy transition. It is currently estimated, however, that the world may be facing an "infrastructure gap" that could prevent us from meeting United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets. Prior investigations have focused on the extractive aspects of the mining industry to meet these targets and on looming bottlenecks and regional challenges in these upstream market segments. Scant attention has been paid to the downstream processing segments of the raw materials value chain, which also has a high degree of market concentration. Growing international tensions and geopolitical events have resulted in a shift toward "reshoring" and "near-shoring" of mining processing capabilities as regional powers attempt to make metal supply chains more secure. While increasing resilience, these shifts can also dilute the overall effectiveness of the global mining supply network and subsequently hamper the world's ability to close the green energy infrastructure gap. We argue that broadening the remit of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to include coordinating these mission-critical metal processing functions can mitigate these issues. The G20 is one potential forum for enabling an integrated mineral processing agreement under the auspices of IRENA.

The allure of an ordered UniverseTen Patterns That Explain the Universe Brian Clegg MIT Press, 2021. 224 pp.

A science writer's ode to patterns packs a visual punch.

Estimation of waste outflows for multiple product types in China from 2010-2050.

Material flow has been accelerated from underground natural minerals and is accumulating as aboveground waste stock. China is not only the largest producer and consumer of material-driven products, but also the largest generator of product waste. No official annual product waste data are released for China, which creates challenges especially in light of China's emerging waste management policies. Previous studies have presented only estimations of waste streams for single products. In this study, we considered three product types and 33 technological products and collected all the available data. A Kuznets curve and Bass diffusion model were employed to forecast their future consumption. Based on urban consumption metabolism, we created one systematic estimation model of product waste generation related to material flow and social regulation. Typical technological product waste outflows were estimated from 2010 to 2050, which can assist further material flow and environmental impact research, as well as waste management policy-making and technology development. The created model can be potentially extended to other types of product waste estimation.

Mapping anthropogenic mineral generation in China and its implications for a circular economy.

Anthropogenic mineral is absorbing wide concern in the context of circular economy, but its generation mechanism and quantity from product to waste remain unclear. Here we consider three product groups, 30 products, and use the revised Weibull lifespan model to map the generation of anthropogenic mineral and 23 types of the capsulated materials by targeting their evolution from 2010 to 2050. Total weight of anthropogenic mineral on average in China reached 39 Mt in 2010, but it will double in 2022 and quadruple in 2045. Stocks of precious metals and rare earths will increase faster than most base materials. The total economic potential in yearly-generated anthropogenic mineral is anticipated to grow markedly from 100 billion US$ in 2020 to 400 billion US$ in 2050. Furthermore, anthropogenic mineral of around 20 materials will be capable to meet projected consumption of three product groups by 2050.

Mining, land restoration and sustainable development in isolated islands: An industrial ecology perspective on extractive transitions on Nauru.

In this empirically grounded perspective, we explore how, if managed correctly, mining might go beyond a straight conversion of finite natural capital to financial resources. We suggest a process where mineral extraction could act as a catalyst for more diversified growth and even serve as a basis to restore forms of 'natural capital' it had previously diminished. The case in point-small in scale but significant in consequence-is the particularly challenging instance of the small-island state of Nauru, which has a very negative history of socio-ecological impacts of phosphate mining. Yet, the degraded landscape requires capital investment which could be reaped from restoration of the land using revenues generated from exporting the waste rock pinnacles as branded household counter-tops and pavement stone products with an "island provenance premium". Furthermore, we use an industrial ecology method to show that Nauru's secondary phosphate can be shown to be less environmentally impactful than comparable phosphate from other sources. This has potential for further "green branding" of the Island's products. We contend that implementing such a restoration approach that harnesses the remaining mineral capital with care has the potential, to diversify the island's economy from one dependent on extractive industries and donors to agroforestry, fishing and tourism. A holistic approach is offered that considers prudent use of Nauru's remaining mineral resources towards an agenda of ecological restoration and economic diversification that will allow the island to prosper after the phosphates it has traditionally relied upon are depleted.

Mining and biodiversity: key issues and research needs in conservation science.

Mining poses serious and highly specific threats to biodiversity. However, mining can also be a means for financing alternative livelihood paths that, over the long-term, may prevent biodiversity loss. Complex and controversial issues associated with mining and biodiversity conservation are often simplified within a narrow frame oriented towards the negative impacts of mining at the site of extraction, rather than posed as a series of challenges for the conservation science community to embrace. Here, we synthesize core issues that, if better understood, may ensure coexistence between mining and conservation agendas. We illustrate how mining impacts biodiversity through diverse pathways and across spatial scales. We argue that traditional, site-based conservation approaches will have limited effect in preventing biodiversity loss against an increasing mining footprint, but opportunities to improve outcomes (e.g. through long-term strategic assessment and planning) do exist. While future mineral supply is uncertain, projections suggest demand will grow for many metals and shift mining operations towards more dispersed and biodiverse areas. Initiating dialogue between mining companies, policy-makers and conservation organizations is urgent, given the suite of international agendas simultaneously requiring more minerals but less biodiversity loss.

Corrigendum: Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nature21359.

Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance.

Successful delivery of the United Nations sustainable development goals and implementation of the Paris Agreement requires technologies that utilize a wide range of minerals in vast quantities. Metal recycling and technological change will contribute to sustaining supply, but mining must continue and grow for the foreseeable future to ensure that such minerals remain available to industry. New links are needed between existing institutional frameworks to oversee responsible sourcing of minerals, trajectories for mineral exploration, environmental practices, and consumer awareness of the effects of consumption. Here we present, through analysis of a comprehensive set of data and demand forecasts, an interdisciplinary perspective on how best to ensure ecologically viable continuity of global mineral supply over the coming decades.

Conflict translates environmental and social risk into business costs.

Sustainability science has grown as a field of inquiry, but has said little about the role of large-scale private sector actors in socio-ecological systems change. However, the shaping of global trends and transitions depends greatly on the private sector and its development impact. Market-based and command-and-control policy instruments have, along with corporate citizenship, been the predominant means for bringing sustainable development priorities into private sector decision-making. This research identifies conflict as a further means through which environmental and social risks are translated into business costs and decision making. Through in-depth interviews with finance, legal, and sustainability professionals in the extractive industries, and empirical case analysis of 50 projects worldwide, this research reports on the financial value at stake when conflict erupts with local communities. Over the past decade, high commodity prices have fueled the expansion of mining and hydrocarbon extraction. These developments profoundly transform environments, communities, and economies, and frequently generate social conflict. Our analysis shows that mining and hydrocarbon companies fail to factor in the full scale of the costs of conflict. For example, as a result of conflict, a major, world-class mining project with capital expenditure of between US$3 and US$5 billion was reported to suffer roughly US$20 million per week of delayed production in net present value terms. Clear analysis of the costs of conflict provides sustainability professionals with a strengthened basis to influence corporate decision making, particularly when linked to corporate values. Perverse outcomes of overemphasizing a cost analysis are also discussed.

Property rights and grassland degradation: a study of the Xilingol pasture, Inner Mongolia, China.

The semi-private property rights arrangement called the Household Production Responsibility System (HPRS) was started in the early 1980s in Xilingol pasture of Inner Mongolia (China), and stimulated the development of stockbreeding. The grassland has been degrading severely with increasing numbers of livestock. Based on a historical review of property rights regimes in Inner Mongolia and empirical surveys in Xilingol pasture during 2001-2003, this paper assesses the implementation of HPRS and its impacts on incomes of households as well as the environmental impact on the grassland. It was found that HPRS does not mitigate the "Tragedy of the Commons", instead it has exacerbated the situation. It was also found that co-management of grassland and livestock among a few households presents a sustainable use of grassland to develop livestock breeding. We conclude with the recommendation that small-scale collective property rights systems should be encouraged in Xilingol pasture of Inner Mongolia.