RESUMO
BackgroundBrazil has the third-highest number of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases worldwide. Understanding the epidemiology of COVID-19 from reported cases is challenging due to heterogeneous testing rates. We estimated the number of COVID-19 cases in Brazil on a national and regional level using digital technology. MethodsWe used a web-based application to perform a population-based survey from March 21st to August 29th, 2020 in Brazil. We obtained responses from 243 461 individuals across all federative units, who answered questions on COVID-19-related symptoms, chronic diseases and address of residence. COVID-19 was defined as at least one of the following: fever, cough, dyspnea and nasal flaring, associated with a history of close contact with a suspect or confirmed COVID-19 case in the previous 14 days. A stratified two-stage weighted survey analysis was performed to estimate the population level prevalence of COVID-19 cases. ResultsAfter calibration weighing, we estimated that 10 339 461 cases of COVID-19 occurred, yielding a 2.75 estimated infection per officially reported case. Estimated/reported ratios varied across Brazilian states and were higher in states with lower human development indexes. Areas with lower income levels displayed higher rates of COVID-19 cases (66 vs 38 cases/1000 people in the lowest and highest income strata respectively, p<0.001), but presented lower rates of COVID-19 testing. ConclusionIn this population-based survey using digital technology in Brazil, we estimated that the COVID-19 case rates were 2.75 times higher than officially reported. The estimated per reported case ratios were higher in areas with worse socioeconomic status.
