Influenza-associated excess mortality in the Philippines, 2006-2015.

Influenza-associated mortality has not been quantified in the Philippines. Here, we constructed multiple negative binomial regression models to estimate the overall and age-specific excess mortality rates (EMRs) associated with influenza in the Philippines from 2006 to 2015. The regression analyses used all-cause mortality as the dependent variable and meteorological controls, time, influenza A and B positivity rates (lagged for up to two time periods), and annual and semiannual cyclical seasonality controls as independent variables. The regression models closely matched observed all-cause mortality. Influenza was estimated to account for a mean of 5,347 excess deaths per year (1.1% of annual all-cause deaths) in the Philippines, most of which (67.1%) occurred in adults aged ≥60 years. Influenza A accounted for 85.7% of all estimated excess influenza deaths. The annual estimated influenza-attributable EMR was 5.09 (95% CI: 2.20-5.09) per 100,000 individuals. The EMR was highest for individuals aged ≥60 years (44.63 [95% CI: 4.51-44.69] per 100,000), second highest for children aged less than 5 years (2.14 [95% CI: 0.44-2.19] per 100,000), and lowest for individuals aged 10 to 19 years (0.48 [95% CI: 0.10-0.50] per 100,000). Estimated numbers of excess influenza-associated deaths were considerably higher than the numbers of influenza deaths registered nationally. Our results suggest that influenza causes considerable mortality in the Philippines-to an extent far greater than observed from national statistics-especially among older adults and young children.

Impact of tobacco use on the development of opportunistic respiratory infections in HIV seropositive patients on antiretroviral therapy.

The increased risk of developing lung diseases in cigarette smokers has been well recognized. The association between smoking and the risk of developing pulmonary infections in HIV-1-infected patients, however, which has not been established, was evaluated in the present study. Twenty-seven cases with lower respiratory infections (15 Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP), 12 TB cases) were compared with 27 age, gender, socio-economic and HIV status-matched patients, without history of respiratory diseases. Medical history and physical examinations were obtained every 6 months. Blood was drawn for CD4 and viral load measurements. A substantial number of HIV + smokers who developed PCP (one-third) had been on highly active retroviral therapy (HAART) for more than 6 months and prophylaxis had been discontinued. Multivariate analyses indicated that in HIV-infected people, after controlling for HIV status and antiretrovirals, cigarette smoking doubled the risk for developing PCP (p = 0.01). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that long-term smoking also increased the risk (2 x) of developing tuberculosis (p = 0.04). Moreover, daily tobacco use seemed to attenuate by 40% the immune and virological response to antiretroviral therapies. These findings indicate that tobacco use significantly increases the risk of pulmonary diseases in HIV infected subjects and has a potential deleterious impact on antiretroviral treatment.