Utility of a Multi-Marker Panel with Ultrasound for Enhanced Classification of Adnexal Mass.

Pre-surgical clinical assessment of an adnexal mass typically relies on transvaginal ultrasound for comprehensive morphological assessment, with further support provided by biomarker measurements and clinical evaluation. Whilst effective for masses that are obviously benign or malignant, a large proportion of masses remain sonographically indeterminate at surgical referral. As a consequence, post-surgical diagnoses of benign disease can outnumber malignancies up to 9-fold, while less than 50% of cancer cases receive a primary referral to a gynecological oncology specialist. We recently described a blood biomarker signature (multi-marker panel-MMP) that differentiated patients with benign from malignant ovarian disease with high accuracy. In this study, we have examined the use of the MMP, both individually and in combination with transvaginal ultrasound, as an alternative tool to CA-125 for enhanced decision making in the pre-surgical referral process.

ReClassification of Patients with Ambiguous CA125 for Optimised Pre-Surgical Triage.

Pre-surgical clinical assessment of an adnexal mass is a complex process, and ideally requires accurate and rapid identification of disease status. Gold standard biomarker CA125 is extensively used off-label for this purpose; however its performance is typically inadequate, particularly for the detection of early stage disease and discrimination between benign versus malignant status. We recently described a multi-marker panel (MMP) and associated risk index for the differentiation of benign from malignant ovarian disease. In this study we applied a net reclassification approach to assess the use of MMP index to rescue those cases where low CA125 incorrectly excludes cancer diagnoses, or where benign disease is incorrectly assessed as "high risk" due to elevated CA125. Reclassification of such patients is of significant value to assist in the timely and accurate referral for patients where CA125 titer is uninformative.

A Novel Predictive Multi-Marker Test for the Pre-Surgical Identification of Ovarian Cancer.

Ovarian cancer remains the most lethal of gynecological malignancies, with the 5-year survival below 50%. Currently there is no simple and effective pre-surgical diagnosis or triage for patients with malignancy, particularly those with early-stage or low-volume tumors. Recently we discovered that CXCL10 can be processed to an inactive form in ovarian cancers and that its measurement has diagnostic significance. In this study we evaluated the addition of processed CXCL10 to a biomarker panel for the discrimination of benign from malignant disease. Multiple biomarkers were measured in retrospectively collected plasma samples (n = 334) from patients diagnosed with benign or malignant disease, and a classifier model was developed using CA125, HE4, Il6 and CXCL10 (active and total). The model provided 95% sensitivity/95% specificity for discrimination of benign from malignant disease. Positive predictive performance exceeded that of "gold standard" scoring systems including CA125, RMI and ROMA% and was independent of menopausal status. In addition, 80% of stage I-II cancers in the cohort were correctly identified using the multi-marker scoring system. Our data suggest the multi-marker panel and associated scoring algorithm provides a useful measurement to assist in pre-surgical diagnosis and triage of patients with suspected ovarian cancer.

Development and validation of a simple prostate cancer risk prediction model based on age, family history, and polygenic risk.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prostate cancer risk assessment will enable identification of men who are at increased risk of the disease. Using the UK Biobank population-based cohort, we developed and validated a simple model comprising age, family history, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict 5-year risk of prostate cancer. METHODS: Eligible participants were unaffected Caucasian men aged 40-69 years at their baseline assessment who had genotyping data available and had completed 6 or more weeks of follow-up. Family history was the number of affected first-degree relatives: 0, 1, or 2+. We used 264 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of a previously developed 269-SNP PRS and population standardized the PRS to have a mean of 1. Age was categorized into 10-year groups: 40-49, 50-59, and 60-69. In a 70% training data set, we used Cox regression with age as the time axis to model family history, PRS, and age group. The model estimates were used with prostate cancer incidences to derive 5-year risks of prostate cancer. Using 5 years of follow-up in a 30% testing data set, the model was tested in terms of its association per quintile of risk, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: Of the 198 334 eligible participants, 8996 (4.5%) were diagnosed with incident prostate cancer during follow-up and had a mean age of 67.9 (SD = 5.8) years at diagnosis. The best-fitting model included the PRS, family history, 10-year age group, interactions between age and PRS, and age and family history. In the 30% testing data set with follow-up limited to 5 years, the hazard ratio per SD of 5-year risk was 3.058 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.720-3.438) and the Harrell's C-index was 0.811 (95% CI, 0.800-0.821). Overall, there were 1088 observed and 1159.1 expected prostate cancers, a standardized incidence ratio of 0.939 (95% CI, 0.885-0.996). CONCLUSIONS: Men at increased risk of prostate cancer could benefit from informed discussions around the risks and benefits of available options for screening for prostate cancer. Although the model was developed in Caucasian men, it can be used with ethnicity-specific polygenic risk and incidence rates for other populations.

Renin-Angiotensin Inhibition and Outcomes in HFrEF and Advanced Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors improve outcomes in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, less is known about their effectiveness in patients with HFrEF and advanced kidney disease. METHODS: In the Medicare-linked Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Hospitalized Patients with Heart Failure (OPTIMIZE-HF), 1582 patients with HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%) had advanced kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73 m2). Of these, 829 were not receiving angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) prior to admission, of whom 214 were initiated on these drugs prior to discharge. We calculated propensity scores for receipt of these drugs for each of the 829 patients and assembled a matched cohort of 388 patients, balanced on 47 baseline characteristics (mean age 78 years; 52% women; 10% African American; 73% receiving beta-blockers). Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated comparing 2-year outcomes in 194 patients initiated on ACE inhibitors or ARBs to 194 patients not initiated on those drugs. RESULTS: The combined endpoint of heart failure readmission or all-cause mortality occurred in 79% and 84% of patients initiated and not initiated on ACE inhibitors or ARBs, respectively (HR associated with initiation, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63-0.98). Respective HRs (95% CI) for the individual endpoints of - Respective HRs (95% CI) for the individual endpoints of all-cause mortality and heart failure readmission were 0.81 (0.63-1.03) and 0.63 (0.47-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: The findings from our study add new information to the body of cumulative evidence that suggest that renin-angiotensin system inhibitors may improve clinical outcomes in patients with HFrEF and advanced kidney disease. These hypothesis-generating findings need to be replicated in contemporary patients.

Melanoma risk prediction based on a polygenic risk score and clinical risk factors.

Melanoma is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in the Western world: third in Australia, fifth in the USA and sixth in the European Union. Predicting an individual's personal risk of developing melanoma may aid them in undertaking effective risk reduction measures. The objective of this study was to use the UK Biobank to predict the 10-year risk of melanoma using a newly developed polygenic risk score (PRS) and an existing clinical risk model. We developed the PRS using a matched case-control training dataset ( N  = 16 434) in which age and sex were controlled by design. The combined risk score was developed using a cohort development dataset ( N  = 54 799) and its performance was tested using a cohort testing dataset ( N  = 54 798). Our PRS comprises 68 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.639 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.618-0.661]. In the cohort testing data, the hazard ratio per SD of the combined risk score was 1.332 (95% CI = 1.263-1.406). Harrell's C-index was 0.685 (95% CI = 0.654-0.715). Overall, the standardized incidence ratio was 1.193 (95% CI = 1.067-1.335). By combining a PRS and a clinical risk score, we have developed a risk prediction model that performs well in terms of discrimination and calibration. At an individual level, information on the 10-year risk of melanoma can motivate people to take risk-reduction action. At the population level, risk stratification can allow more effective population-level screening strategies to be implemented.

Validation of an Abridged Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model for the General Population.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE: In this prospective population-based cohort study, we show the improved performance of a new risk assessment model compared with a gold-standard model (BCRAT). The classification of at-risk women using this new model highlights the opportunity to improve risk stratification and implement existing clinical risk-reduction interventions.

Validation of a breast cancer risk prediction model based on the key risk factors: family history, mammographic density and polygenic risk.

PURPOSE: We compared a simple breast cancer risk prediction model, BRISK (which includes mammographic density, polygenic risk and clinical factors), against a similar model with more risk factors (simplified Rosner) and against two commonly used clinical models (Gail and IBIS). METHODS: Using nested case-control data from the Nurses' Health Study, we compared the models' association, discrimination and calibration. Classification performance was compared between Gail and BRISK for 5-year risks and between IBIS and BRISK for remaining lifetime risk. RESULTS: The odds ratio per standard deviation was 1.43 (95% CI 1.32, 1.55) for BRISK 5-year risk, 1.07 (95% CI 0.99, 1.14) for Gail 5-year risk, 1.72 (95% CI 1.59, 1.87) for simplified Rosner 10-year risk, 1.51 (95% CI 1.41, 1.62) for BRISK remaining lifetime risk and 1.26 (95% CI 1.16, 1.36) for IBIS remaining lifetime risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was improved for BRISK over Gail for 5-year risk (AUC = 0.636 versus 0.511, P < 0.0001) and for BRISK over IBIS for remaining lifetime risk (AUC = 0.647 versus 0.571, P < 0.0001). BRISK was well calibrated for the estimation of both 5-year risk (expected/observed [E/O] = 1.03; 95% CI 0.73, 1.46) and remaining lifetime risk (E/O = 1.01; 95% CI 0.86, 1.17). The Gail 5-year risk (E/O = 0.85; 95% CI 0.58, 1.24) and IBIS remaining lifetime risk (E/O = 0.73; 95% CI 0.60, 0.87) were not well calibrated, with both under-estimating risk. BRISK improves classification of risk compared to Gail 5-year risk (NRI = 0.31; standard error [SE] = 0.031) and IBIS remaining lifetime risk (NRI = 0.287; SE = 0.035). CONCLUSION: BRISK performs better than two commonly used clinical risk models and no worse compared to a similar model with more risk factors.

Risk of Stroke in Older Adults With Heart Failure.

Heart failure (HF) is a risk factor for incident stroke. However, less is known about the independent nature of this association and to what extent various baseline characteristics may mediate this risk. Of the 5,795 community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study, 5,448 were free of baseline stroke, of whom 229 had baseline HF. We used a multivariable-adjusted Cox regression model to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for centrally adjudicated incident stroke associated with HF. Participants had a mean age of 73 years, 58% were women, and 15% were African-American. During 23 years of follow-up, incident stroke occurred in 18.8% and 19.3% of those with and without HF, respectively, but the time to first stroke was shorter in those with HF (age-gender-race-adjusted HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.25). The association remained essentially unchanged after adjustments for tobacco, alcohol, and physical activity (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.24), attenuated after adjustment for hypertension, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus (HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.72), and further attenuated after additional adjustment for 10 baseline functional and subclinical variables (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.46). In conclusion, despite a similar 23-year stroke incidence, time to first stroke was shorter in older adults with HF than without. However, this extra risk appears to be mediated primarily by 4 cardiovascular diseases that are also risk factors for HF. These findings highlight the importance of the primary prevention of these HF risk factors to reduce the extra risk of stroke in HF.

A combined clinical and genetic model for predicting risk of ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Women with a family history of ovarian cancer or a pathogenic or likely pathogenic gene variant are at high risk of the disease, but very few women have these risk factors. We assessed whether a combined polygenic and clinical risk score could predict risk of ovarian cancer in population-based women who would otherwise be considered as being at average risk. METHODS: We used the UK Biobank to conduct a prospective cohort study assessing the performance of 10-year ovarian cancer risks based on a polygenic risk score, a clinical risk score and a combined risk score. We used Cox regression to assess association, Harrell's C-index to assess discrimination and Poisson regression to assess calibration. RESULTS: The combined risk model performed best and problems with calibration were overcome by recalibrating the model, which then had a hazard ratio per quintile of risk of 1.338 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.152-1.553], a Harrell's C-index of 0.663 (95% CI, 0.629-0.698) and overall calibration of 1.000 (95% CI, 0.874-1.145). In the refined model with estimates based on the entire dataset, women in the top quintile of 10-year risk were at 1.387 (95% CI, 1.086-1.688) times increased risk, while women in the top quintile of full-lifetime risk were at 1.527 (95% CI, 1.187-1.866) times increased risk compared with the population. CONCLUSION: Identification of women who are at high risk of ovarian cancer can allow healthcare providers and patients to engage in joint decision-making discussions around the risks and benefits of screening options or risk-reducing surgery.

Polygenic risk scores for cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are a promising approach to accurately predict an individual's risk of developing disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of PRSs in their population are often only reported for models that are adjusted for age and sex, which are known risk factors for the disease of interest and confound the association between the PRS and the disease. This makes comparison of PRS between studies difficult because the genetic effects cannot be disentangled from effects of age and sex (which have a high AUC without the PRS). In this study, we used data from the UK Biobank and applied the stacked clumping and thresholding method and a variation called maximum clumping and thresholding method to develop PRSs to predict coronary artery disease, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, stroke and type 2 diabetes. We created case-control training datasets in which age and sex were controlled by design. We also excluded prevalent cases to prevent biased estimation of disease risks. The maximum clumping and thresholding PRSs required many fewer single-nucleotide polymorphisms to achieve almost the same discriminatory ability as the stacked clumping and thresholding PRSs. Using the testing datasets, the AUCs for the maximum clumping and thresholding PRSs were 0.599 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.585, 0.613) for atrial fibrillation, 0.572 (95% CI: 0.560, 0.584) for coronary artery disease, 0.585 (95% CI: 0.564, 0.605) for type 2 diabetes, 0.559 (95% CI: 0.550, 0.569) for hypertension and 0.514 (95% CI: 0.494, 0.535) for stroke. By developing a PRS using a dataset in which age and sex are controlled by design, we have obtained true estimates of the discriminatory ability of the PRSs alone rather than estimates that include the effects of age and sex.

The SCRIPT trial: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial of a polygenic risk score to tailor colorectal cancer screening in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can predict the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) and target screening more precisely than current guidelines using age and family history alone. Primary care, as a far-reaching point of healthcare and routine provider of cancer screening and risk information, may be an ideal location for their widespread implementation. METHODS: This trial aims to determine whether the SCRIPT intervention results in more risk-appropriate CRC screening after 12 months in individuals attending general practice, compared with standard cancer risk reduction information. The SCRIPT intervention consists of a CRC PRS, tailored risk-specific screening recommendations and a risk report for participants and their GP, delivered in general practice. Patients aged between 45 and 70 inclusive, attending their GP, will be approached for participation. For those over 50, only those overdue for CRC screening will be eligible to participate. Two hundred and seventy-four participants will be randomised to the intervention or control arms, stratified by general practice, using a computer-generated allocation sequence. The primary outcome is risk-appropriate CRC screening after 12 months. For those in the intervention arm, risk-appropriate screening is defined using PRS-derived risk; for those in the control arm, it is defined using family history and national screening guidelines. Timing, type and results of the previous screening are considered in both arms. Objective health service data will capture screening behaviour. Secondary outcomes include cancer-specific worry, risk perception, predictors of CRC screening behaviour, screening intentions and health service use at 1, 6 and 12 months post-intervention delivery. DISCUSSION: This trial aims to determine whether a PRS-derived personalised CRC risk estimate delivered in primary care increases risk-appropriate CRC screening. A future population risk-stratified CRC screening programme could incorporate risk assessment within primary care while encouraging adherence to targeted screening recommendations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12621000092897p. Registered on 1 February 2021.

Initiation of anti-hypertensive drugs and outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and persistent hypertension.

BACKGROUND: National heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend that in patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (EF;HFpEF) and hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP) should be maintained below 130 mmHg. The objective of the study is to examine the association between initiation of anti-hypertensive drugs and outcomes in patients with HFpEF with persistent hypertension. METHODS: Of the 8873 hospitalized patients with HFpEF (EF ≥50%) with a history of hypertension without renal failure in Medicare-linked OPTIMIZE-HF, 3315 had a discharge SBP ≥130 mmHg, of whom 1971 were not receiving anti-hypertensive drugs, thiazides and calcium channel blockers, before hospitalization. Of these, 366 received discharge prescriptions for those drugs. We assembled a propensity score-matched cohort of 365 pairs of patients initiated and not initiated on anti-hypertensive drugs, balanced on 37 baseline characteristics. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for outcomes associated with anti-hypertensive drug initiation were estimated in the matched cohort. RESULTS: Matched patients (n = 730) had a mean age of 78 years; 67% were women and 17% African Americans. During 6 (median 2.5) years of follow-up, 66% of the patients died and 45% had HF readmission. HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality at 30 days, 12 months and 6 years associated with anti-hypertensive drug initiation were 0.64 (0.30-1.36), 0.70 (0.51-0.97), and 0.95 (0.79-1.13), respectively. Respective HRs (95% CIs) for HF readmission were 1.65 (0.97-2.80), 1.18 (0.90-1.56) and 1.09 (0.88-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Among hospitalized older patients with HFpEF with uncontrolled hypertension, the initiation of therapy with anti-hypertensive drugs was not associated with all-cause mortality or hospital readmission.

Assessment of Lung Cancer Risk Among Smokers for Whom Annual Screening Is Not Recommended.

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force does not recommend annual lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for adults aged 50 to 80 years who are former smokers with 20 or more pack-years of smoking who quit 15 or more years ago or current smokers with less than 20 pack-years of smoking. Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer in older smokers for whom LDCT screening is not recommended. Design, Settings, and Participants: This cohort study used the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) data sets obtained from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, which also sponsored the study. The CHS enrolled 5888 community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years and older in the US from June 1989 to June 1993 and collected extensive baseline data on smoking history. The current analysis was restricted to 4279 individuals free of cancer who had baseline data on pack-year smoking history and duration of smoking cessation. The current analysis was conducted from January 7, 2022, to May 25, 2022. Exposures: Current and prior tobacco use. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident lung cancer during a median (IQR) of 13.3 (7.9-18.8) years of follow-up (range, 0 to 22.6) through December 31, 2011. A Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to estimate incidence of lung cancer in the presence of competing risk of death. Cox cause-specific hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident lung cancer. Results: There were 4279 CHS participants (mean [SD] age, 72.8 [5.6] years; 2450 [57.3%] women; 663 [15.5%] African American, 3585 [83.8%] White, and 31 [0.7%] of other race or ethnicity) included in the current analysis. Among the 861 nonheavy smokers (<20 pack-years), the median (IQR) pack-year smoking history was 7.6 (3.3-13.5) pack-years for the 615 former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation, 10.0 (5.3-14.9) pack-years for the 146 former smokers with less than 15 years of smoking cessation, and 11.4 (7.3-14.4) pack-years for the 100 current smokers. Among the 1445 heavy smokers (20 or more pack-years), the median (IQR) pack-year smoking history was 34.8 (26.3-48.0) pack-years for the 516 former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation, 48.0 (35.0-70.0) pack-years for the 497 former smokers with less than 15 years of smoking cessation, and 48.8 (31.6-57.0) pack-years for the 432 current smokers. Incident lung cancer occurred in 10 of 1973 never smokers (0.5%), 5 of 100 current smokers with less than 20 pack-years of smoking (5.0%), and 26 of 516 former smokers with 20 or more pack-years of smoking with 15 or more years of smoking cessation (5.0%). Compared with never smokers, cause-specific HRs for incident lung cancer in the 2 groups for whom LDCT is not recommended were 10.54 (95% CI, 3.60-30.83) for the current nonheavy smokers and 11.19 (95% CI, 5.40-23.21) for the former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation; age, sex, and race-adjusted HRs were 10.06 (95% CI, 3.41-29.70) for the current nonheavy smokers and 10.22 (4.86-21.50) for the former smokers with 15 or more years of smoking cessation compared with never smokers. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that there is a high risk of lung cancer among smokers for whom LDCT screening is not recommended, suggesting that prediction models are needed to identify high-risk subsets of these smokers for screening.

In-Hospital Weight Loss and Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Acute decompensation of heart failure (HF) is often marked by fluid retention, and weight loss is a marker of successful diuresis. We examined the relationship between in-hospital weight loss and post-discharge outcomes in patients with HF. METHODS: We conducted a propensity score-matched study of 8830 patients hospitalized for decompensated HF in the Medicare-linked Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Hospitalized Patients with Heart Failure (OPTIMIZE-HF) registry, in which 4415 patients in the weight-loss group and 4415 patients in the no-weight-loss group were balanced on 75 baseline characteristics. We defined weight loss as an admission-to-discharge weight loss of 1-30 kilograms, and we defined no weight loss as a weight gain or loss of < 1 kilogram. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes associated with weight loss were estimated. RESULTS: Patients had a mean age of 78 years, 57% were women, and 11% were African American. The median weight loss in the weight-loss group was 3.6 (interquartile range, 2.0-6.0) kilograms. HRs and 95% CIs for 30-day all-cause mortality, all-cause readmission and HF readmission associated with weight loss were 0.75 (0.63-0.90), 0.90 (0.83-0.99) and 0.83 (0.72-0.96), respectively. Respective 60-day HRs (95% CIs) were 0.80 (0.70-0.92), 0.91 (0.85-0.98) and 0.88 (0.79-0.98). These associations were attenuated and lost significance during 6 months of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Among older patients hospitalized for decompensated HF, in-hospital weight loss was associated with a lower risk of mortality and hospital readmission. These findings suggest that in-hospital weight loss, a marker of successful diuresis and decongestion, is also a marker of improved clinical outcomes.

Beta-Blocker Use and Outcomes in Nursing Home Residents with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Beta-blockers improve clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Less is known about their role in older nursing home residents with HFrEF. METHODS: From the combined OPTIMIZE-HF and Alabama Heart Failure Project data sets, we assembled a propensity score-matched balanced cohort of 6494 hospitalized patients ≥65 years with HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%). In our primary approach, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI)s for outcomes associated with discharge prescriptions for beta- blockers were estimated, examining for heterogeneity by admission from nursing homes. In our sensitivity approach, we examined these associations in a separately assembled propensity score-matched cohort of 122 patients admitted from nursing homes. RESULTS: In the matched primary cohort of 6494 patients, HRs (95% CIs) for 12-month all-cause mortality and heart failure readmission were 0.80 (0.74-0.87) and 0.94 (0.86-1.02), respectively. Respective HRs (95% CIs) in the nursing home and non-nursing home subgroups were 0.77 (0.51-1.16) and 0.81 (0.74-0.87) for all-cause mortality (interaction P: 0.653) and 1.06 (0.53-2.12) and 0.89 (0.82-0.96) for heart failure readmission (interaction P: 0.753). In the matched sensitivity cohort of 122 patients admitted from nursing homes, HRs (95% CIs) for 12-month all-cause mortality and heart failure readmission were 0.86 (0.55-1.35) and 1.07 (0.52-2.22), respectively. Similar associations were observed for 30-day outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Beta-blocker use was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality but not of heart failure readmission in older patients with HFrEF, which were similar for patients admitted and not admitted from nursing homes.

Initiation of Anti-Hypertensive Drugs and Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: In patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and hypertension, systolic blood pressure is recommended to be maintained below 130 mmHg, although this has not been shown to be associated with improved outcomes. We examined the association between anti-hypertensive drug initiation and outcomes in patients with HFrEF. METHODS: In the Medicare-linked OPTIMIZE-HF, 7966 patients with HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%) without renal failure were not receiving anti-hypertensive drugs before hospitalization, of whom 692 received discharge prescriptions for those drugs (thiazides and calcium channel blockers). We assembled a propensity score-matched cohort of 687 pairs of patients initiated and not initiated on anti-hypertensive drugs, balanced on 38 baseline characteristics. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes associated with anti-hypertensive drug initiation were estimated in the matched cohort. RESULTS: Matched patients (n = 1374) had a mean age of 74 years, 41% were female, 17% were African-American, 66% were discharged on renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and beta blockers, and 10% on aldosterone antagonists. During 6 (median 2.5) years of follow-up, 70% of the patients died and 53% had heart failure readmission. Anti-hypertensive drug initiation was not significantly associated with all-cause mortality (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.83-1.07) or heart failure readmission (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.80-1.07). Similar associations were observed during 30 days and 12 months of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Among hospitalized older patients with HFrEF receiving contemporary treatments for heart failure, initiation of an anti-hypertensive drug was not associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality or hospital readmission.

Income disparity and incident cardiovascular disease in older Americans.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between income and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Of the 5795 Medicare-eligible community-dwelling older Americans aged 65-100 years in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), 4518 (78%) were free of baseline CVD, defined as heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or peripheral arterial disease. Of them, 1846 (41%) had lower income, defined as a total annual household income <$16,000. Using propensity scores for lower income, estimated for each of the 4518 participants, we assembled a matched cohort of 1078 pairs balanced on 42 baseline characteristics. Outcomes included centrally adjudicated incident CVD and mortality. RESULTS: Matched participants (n = 2156) had a mean age of 73 years, 63% were women, and 13% African American. During an overall follow-up of 23 years, incident CVD, all-cause mortality and the combined endpoint of incident CVD or mortality occurred in 1094 (51%), 1726 (80%) and 1867 (87%) individuals, respectively. Compared with the higher income group, hazard ratio (HR) for time to the first occurrence of incident CVD in the lower income group was 1.16 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.03 to 1.31. A lower income was also associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.08-1.30), and consequently a higher risk of the combined endpoint of incident CVD or death (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.31). CONCLUSION: Among community-dwelling older Americans free of baseline CVD, an annual household income <$16,000 is independently associated with significantly higher risks of new-onset CVD and death.

Ability of known colorectal cancer susceptibility SNPs to predict colorectal cancer risk: A cohort study within the UK Biobank.

Colorectal cancer risk stratification is crucial to improve screening and risk-reducing recommendations, and consequently do better than a one-size-fits-all screening regimen. Current screening guidelines in the UK, USA and Australia focus solely on family history and age for risk prediction, even though the vast majority of the population do not have any family history. We investigated adding a polygenic risk score based on 45 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to a family history model (combined model) to quantify how it improves the stratification and discriminatory performance of 10-year risk and full lifetime risk using a prospective population-based cohort within the UK Biobank. For both 10-year and full lifetime risk, the combined model had a wider risk distribution compared with family history alone, resulting in improved risk stratification of nearly 2-fold between the top and bottom risk quintiles of the full lifetime risk model. Importantly, the combined model can identify people (n = 72,019) who do not have family history of colorectal cancer but have a predicted risk that is equivalent to having at least one affected first-degree relative (n = 44,950). We also confirmed previous findings by showing that the combined full lifetime risk model significantly improves discriminatory accuracy compared with a simple family history model 0.673 (95% CI 0.664-0.682) versus 0.666 (95% CI 0.657-0.675), p = 0.0065. Therefore, a combined polygenic risk score and first-degree family history model could be used to improve risk stratified population screening programs.