A clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department: A prospective multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND: To develop a clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A secondary analysis of a prospective multicentre observational study in five European EDs (the TRIAGE study), including consecutive children aged <16 years who were discharged following their initial ED visit ('index' visit), in 2012-2015. Standardised data on patient characteristics, Manchester Triage System urgency classification, vital signs, clinical interventions and procedures were collected. The outcome measure was serious illness defined as hospital admission or PICU admission or death in ED after an unplanned revisit within 7 days of the index visit. Prediction models were developed using multivariable logistic regression using characteristics of the index visit to predict the likelihood of a revisit with a serious illness. The clinical model included day and time of presentation, season, age, gender, presenting problem, triage urgency, and vital signs. An extended model added laboratory investigations, imaging, and intravenous medications. Cross validation between the five sites was performed, and discrimination and calibration were assessed using random effects models. A digital calculator was constructed for clinical implementation. 7,891 children out of 98,561 children had a revisit to the ED (8.0%), of whom 1,026 children (1.0%) returned to the ED with a serious illness. Rates of revisits with serious illness varied between the hospitals (range 0.7-2.2%). The clinical model had a summary Area under the operating curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.74) and summary calibration slope of 0.83 (95% CI 0.67-0.99). 4,433 children (5%) had a risk of > = 3%, which was useful for ruling in a revisit with serious illness, with positive likelihood ratio 4.41 (95% CI 3.87-5.01) and specificity 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.96). 37,546 (39%) had a risk <0.5%, which was useful for ruling out a revisit with serious illness (negative likelihood ratio 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35), sensitivity 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.90)). The extended model had an improved summary AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) and summary calibration slope of 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.97). As study limitations, variables on ethnicity and social deprivation could not be included, and only return visits to the original hospital and not to those of surrounding hospitals were recorded. CONCLUSION: We developed a prediction model and a digital calculator which can aid physicians identifying those children at highest and lowest risks for developing a serious illness after initial discharge from the ED, allowing for more targeted safety netting advice and follow-up.

Shortness of breath in children at the emergency department: Variability in management in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to describe variability in resource use and hospitalization in children presenting with shortness of breath to different European Emergency Departments (EDs) and to explore possible explanations for variability. DESIGN: The TrIAGE project, a prospective observational study based on electronic health record data. PATIENTS AND SETTING: Consecutive paediatric emergency department visits for shortness of breath in five European hospitals in four countries (Austria, Netherlands, Portugal, United Kingdom) during a study period of 9-36 months (2012-2014). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed diversity between EDs regarding resource use (diagnostic tests, therapy) and hospital admission using multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusting for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: In total, 13,552 children were included. Of those, 7,379 were categorized as immediate/very urgent, ranging from 13-80% in the participating hospitals. Laboratory tests and X-rays were performed in 8-33% of the cases and 21-61% was treated with inhalation medication. Admission rates varied between 8-47% and PICU admission rates varied between 0.1-9%. Patient characteristics and markers of disease severity (age, sex, comorbidity, urgency, vital signs) could explain part of the observed variability in resource use and hospitalization. However, after adjusting for these characteristics, we still observed substantial variability between settings. CONCLUSION: European EDs differ substantially regarding the resource use and hospitalization in children with shortness of breath, even when adjusting for patient characteristics. Possible explanations for this variability might be unmeasured patient characteristics such as underlying disease, differences in guideline use and adherence or different local practice patterns.

Improving the prioritization of children at the emergency department: Updating the Manchester Triage System using vital signs.

BACKGROUND: Vital signs are used in emergency care settings in the first assessment of children to identify those that need immediate attention. We aimed to develop and validate vital sign based Manchester Triage System (MTS) discriminators to improve triage of children at the emergency department. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The TrIAGE project is a prospective observational study based on electronic health record data from five European EDs (Netherlands (n = 2), United Kingdom, Austria, and Portugal). In the current study, we included 117,438 consecutive children <16 years presenting to the ED during the study period (2012-2015). We derived new discriminators based on heart rate, respiratory rate, and/or capillary refill time for specific subgroups of MTS flowcharts. Moreover, we determined the optimal cut-off value for each vital sign. The main outcome measure was a previously developed 3-category reference standard (high, intermediate, low urgency) for the required urgency of care, based on mortality at the ED, immediate lifesaving interventions, disposition and resource use. We determined six new discriminators for children <1 year and ≥1 year: "Very abnormal respiratory rate", "Abnormal heart rate", and "Abnormal respiratory rate", with optimal cut-offs, and specific subgroups of flowcharts. Application of the modified MTS reclassified 744 patients (2.5%). Sensitivity increased from 0.66 (95%CI 0.60-0.72) to 0.71 (0.66-0.75) for high urgency patients and from 0.67 (0.54-0.76) to 0.70 (0.58-0.80) for high and intermediate urgency patients. Specificity decreased from 0.90 (0.86-0.93) to 0.89 (0.85-0.92) for high and 0.66 (0.52-0.78) to 0.63 (0.50-0.75) for high and intermediate urgency patients. These differences were statistically significant. Overall performance improved (R2 0.199 versus 0.204). CONCLUSIONS: Six new discriminators based on vital signs lead to a small but relevant increase in performance and should be implemented in the MTS.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Headache in a Pediatric Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of the study were (1) to analyze the etiology and clinical management of headaches in children in the emergency department and (2) to analyze the treatment used in children diagnosed with headaches and with migraines. METHODS: Retrospective study of all the patients who were admitted to the pediatric emergency department of Hospital Professor Doutor Fernando Fonseca, Lisbon, in 2014, with a chief complaint of headaches or the primary discharge diagnosis was headache/migraine. RESULTS: Headache related cases represented 3.8% of all the visits, a total of 2354 subjects. The median age was 10 years and 52.6% were female. The most frequent diagnoses were as follow: headaches (21.3%), upper respiratory infections (18.4%), and migraines (6.1%). There were 4 cases of meningitis, 6,5% of all patients underwent computed tomography which was mostly requested in school-age children and adolescents. The average time from the first medical observation until discharge was 85 minutes. Fifty-five percent did not take any pain relief medication, 17.2% took acetaminophen, and 11.1% took ibuprofen. Patients who received ondansetron had less revisits (P = 0.000). Subjects with mild-moderate pain treated with acetaminophen or no medication had more revisits (P = 0.000). CONCLUSIONS: Secondary benign headaches were the most common and very rarely headache as a symptom was associated with life-threatening situations. Antiemetics seem to be efficient ally in the treatment of primary headaches, but it is important to consider alternative pharmacological regimes in patients who present with higher pain scores.

Management of children visiting the emergency department during out-of-office hours: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: The aim was to study the characteristics and management of children visiting the emergency department (ED) during out-of-office hours. METHODS: We analysed electronic health record data from 119 204 children visiting one of five EDs in four European countries. Patient characteristics and management (diagnostic tests, treatment, hospital admission and paediatric intensive care unit admission) were compared between children visiting during office hours and evening shifts, night shifts and weekend day shifts. Analyses were corrected for age, gender, Manchester Triage System urgency, abnormal vital signs, presenting problems and hospital. RESULTS: Patients presenting at night were younger (median (IQR) age: 3.7 (1.4-8.2) years vs 4.8 (1.8-9.9)), more often classified as high urgent (16.3% vs 9.9%) and more often had ≥2 abnormal vital signs (22.8% vs 18.1%) compared with office hours. After correcting for disease severity, laboratory and radiological tests were less likely to be requested (adjusted OR (aOR): 0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.86 and aOR: 0.64, 95% CI 0.60-0.67, respectively); treatment was more likely to be undertaken (aOR: 1.56, 95% CI 1.49-1.63) and patients were more likely to be admitted to the hospital (aOR: 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41) at night. Patterns in management during out-of-office hours were comparable between the different hospitals, with variability remaining. CONCLUSIONS: Children visiting during the night are relatively more seriously ill, highlighting the need to keep improving emergency care on a 24-hour-a-day basis. Further research is needed to explain the differences in management during the night and how these differences affect patient outcomes.

Sex-specific differences in children attending the emergency department: prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the role of sex in the presentation and management of children attending the emergency department (ED). DESIGN: The TrIAGE project (TRiage Improvements Across General Emergency departments), a prospective observational study based on curated electronic health record data. SETTING: Five diverse European hospitals in four countries (Austria, The Netherlands, Portugal, UK). PARTICIPANTS: All consecutive paediatric ED visits of children under the age of 16 during the study period (8-36 months between 2012 and 2015). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The association between sex (male of female) and diagnostic tests and disease management in general paediatric ED visits and in subgroups presenting with trauma or musculoskeletal, gastrointestinal and respiratory problems and fever. Results from the different hospitals were pooled in a random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: 116 172 ED visits were included of which 63 042 (54%) by boys and 53 715 (46%) by girls. Boys accounted for the majority of ED visits in childhood, and girls in adolescence. After adjusting for age, triage urgency and clinical presentation, girls had more laboratory tests compared with boys (pooled OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.15). Additionally, girls had more laboratory tests in ED visits for respiratory problems (pooled OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.26) and more imaging in visits for trauma or musculoskeletal problems (pooled OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20) and respiratory conditions (pooled OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.24). Girls with respiratory problems were less often treated with inhalation medication (pooled OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.83). There was no difference in hospital admission between the sexes (pooled OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.04). CONCLUSION: In childhood, boys represent the majority of ED visits and they receive more inhalation medication. Unexpectedly, girls receive more diagnostic tests compared with boys. Further research is needed to investigate whether this is due to pathophysiological differences and differences in disease course, whether girls present signs and symptoms differently, or whether sociocultural factors are responsible.

Development and validation of a Paediatric Early Warning Score for use in the emergency department: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWSs) are being used increasingly in hospital wards to identify children at risk of clinical deterioration, but few scores exist that were designed for use in emergency care settings. To improve the prioritisation of children in the emergency department (ED), we developed and validated an ED-PEWS. METHODS: The TrIAGE project is a prospective European observational study based on electronic health record data collected between Jan 1, 2012, and Nov 1, 2015, from five diverse EDs in four European countries (Netherlands, the UK, Austria, and Portugal). This study included data from all consecutive ED visits of children under age 16 years. The main outcome measure was a three-category reference standard (high, intermediate, low urgency) that was developed as part of the TrIAGE project as a proxy for true patient urgency. The ED-PEWS was developed based on an ordinal logistic regression model, with cross-validation by setting. After completing the study, we fully externally validated the ED-PEWS in an independent cohort of febrile children from a different ED (Greece). FINDINGS: Of 119 209 children, 2007 (1·7%) were of high urgency and 29 127 (24·4%) of intermediate urgency, according to our reference standard. We developed an ED-PEWS consisting of age and the predictors heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, consciousness, capillary refill time, and work of breathing. The ED-PEWS showed a cross-validated c-statistic of 0·86 (95% prediction interval 0·82-0·90) for high-urgency patients and 0·67 (0·61-0·73) for high-urgency or intermediate-urgency patients. A cutoff of score of at least 15 was useful for identifying high-urgency patients with a specificity of 0·90 (95% CI 0·87-0·92) while a cutoff score of less than 6 was useful for identifying low-urgency patients with a sensitivity of 0·83 (0·81-0·85). INTERPRETATION: The proposed ED-PEWS can assist in identifying high-urgency and low-urgency patients in the ED, and improves prioritisation compared with existing PEWSs. FUNDING: Stichting de Drie Lichten, Stichting Sophia Kinderziekenhuis Fonds, and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.

Validity of the Manchester Triage System in emergency care: A prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) in emergency care for the general population of patients attending the emergency department, for children and elderly, and for commonly used MTS flowcharts and discriminators across three different emergency care settings. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study in three European emergency departments. All consecutive patients attending the emergency department during a 1-year study period (2010-2012) were included. Validity of the MTS was assessed by comparing MTS urgency as determined by triage nurses with patient urgency according to a predefined 3-category reference standard as proxy for true patient urgency. RESULTS: 288,663 patients were included in the analysis. Sensitivity of the MTS in the three hospitals ranged from 0.47 (95%CI 0.44-0.49) to 0.87 (95%CI 0.85-0.90), and specificity from 0.84 (95%CI 0.84-0.84) to 0.94 (95%CI 0.94-0.94) for the triage of adult patients. In children, sensitivity ranged from 0.65 (95%CI 0.61-0.70) to 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.87), and specificity from 0.83 (95%CI 0.82-0.83) to 0.89 (95%CI 0.88-0.90). The diagnostic odds ratio ranged from 13.5 (95%CI 12.1-15.0) to 35.3 (95%CI 28.4-43.9) in adults and from 9.8 (95%CI 6.7-14.5) to 23.8 (95%CI 17.7-32.0) in children, and was lowest in the youngest patients in 2 out of 3 settings and in the oldest patients in all settings. Performance varied considerably between the different emergency departments. CONCLUSIONS: Validity of the MTS in emergency care is moderate to good, with lowest performance in the young and elderly patients. Future studies on the validity of triage systems should be restricted to large, multicenter studies to define modifications and improve generalizability of the findings.

Improving the Manchester Triage System for pediatric emergency care: an international multicenter study.

OBJECTIVES: This multicenter study examines the performance of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) after changing discriminators, and with the addition use of abnormal vital sign in patients presenting to pediatric emergency departments (EDs). DESIGN: International multicenter study. SETTINGS: EDs of two hospitals in The Netherlands (2006-2009), one in Portugal (November-December 2010), and one in UK (June-November 2010). PATIENTS: Children (<16 years) triaged with the MTS who presented at the ED. METHODS: Changes to discriminators (MTS 1) and the value of including abnormal vital signs (MTS 2) were studied to test if this would decrease the number of incorrect assignment. Admission to hospital using the new MTS was compared with those in the original MTS. Likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and c-statistics were calculated as measures for performance and compared with the original MTS. To calculate likelihood ratios and DORs, the MTS had to be dichotomized in low urgent and high urgent. RESULTS: 60,375 patients were included, of whom 13% were admitted. When MTS 1 was used, admission to hospital increased from 25% to 29% for MTS 'very urgent' patients and remained similar in lower MTS urgency levels. The diagnostic odds ratio improved from 4.8 (95%CI 4.5-5.1) to 6.2 (95%CI 5.9-6.6) and the c-statistic remained 0.74. MTS 2 did not improve the performance of the MTS. CONCLUSIONS: MTS 1 performed slightly better than the original MTS. The use of vital signs (MTS 2) did not improve the MTS performance.