Partial recovery of tuberculosis preventive treatment in Brazil after pandemic drawback.

Brazil was heavily affected by COVID-19 both with death toll and economically, with absence of a centralized Federal Government response. Tuberculosis (TB) notifications decreased in 2020 but partial recovery was observed in 2021. We have previously shown a sharp (93%) reduction in TB preventive treatment notifications among five Brazilian cities with more than 1,000 notifications in 2021. We hypothesized TB preventive treatment would also recover. We updated the previous analysis by adding other cities that hold more than a 1,000 notifications until 2022. Data aggregated by 2-week periods were extracted from the Information System for Notifying People Undergoing Treatment for LTBI (IL-TB). Biweekly percentage change (BPC) of notifications until October 2022 and outcomes until July 2022 (in the two weeks of TB preventive treatment initiation) were analyzed using Joinpoint software. A total of 39,701 notifications in 11 cities were included, 66% from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We found a significant increase of TB preventive treatment notifications in the beginning of 2021 (BPC range 1.4-49.6), with sustained progression in seven out of the 11 cities. Overall, median completion rates were 65%. In most cities, a gradual and steady decrease of treatment completion rates was found, except for Rio de Janeiro and Manaus (Amazonas State, Brazil), where a BPC of 1.5 and 1.2, respectively, was followed by a sustained increase. Notifications and completion proportions of TB preventive treatment were heterogeneous, which partly reflects the heterogeneity in local response to the pandemic. We found that notifications were recovered, and that the sharp 2021 decrease was no longer observed, which suggests delays in notification. In conclusion, the sharp reductions in TB preventive treatment completion rates in most cities might have been caused by delays in reporting; however, the sustained and progressive decrease are a concern.

Quantifying gaps in the tuberculosis care cascade in Brazil: A mathematical model study using national program data.

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, many individuals with tuberculosis (TB) do not receive appropriate care due to delayed or missed diagnosis, ineffective treatment regimens, or loss-to-follow-up. This study aimed to estimate the health losses and TB program costs attributable to each gap in the care cascade for TB disease in Brazil. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed a Markov model simulating the TB care cascade and lifetime health outcomes (e.g., death, cure, postinfectious sequelae) for individuals developing TB disease in Brazil. We stratified the model by age, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, drug resistance, state of residence, and disease severity, and developed a parallel model for individuals without TB that receive a false-positive TB diagnosis. Models were fit to data (adult and pediatric) from Brazil's Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) and Mortality Information System (SIM) for 2018. Using these models, we assessed current program performance and simulated hypothetical scenarios that eliminated specific gaps in the care cascade, in order to quantify incremental health losses and TB diagnosis and treatment costs along the care cascade. TB-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated by comparing changes in survival and nonfatal disability to a no-TB counterfactual scenario. We estimated that 90.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 85.2 to 93.4) of individuals with TB disease initiated treatment and 10.0% (95% UI: 7.6 to 12.5) died with TB. The average number of TB-attributable DALYs per incident TB case varied across Brazil, ranging from 2.9 (95% UI: 2.3 to 3.6) DALYs in Acre to 4.0 (95% UI: 3.3 to 4.7) DALYs in Rio Grande do Sul (national average 3.5 [95% UI: 2.8 to 4.1]). Delayed diagnosis contributed the largest health losses along the care cascade, followed by post-TB sequelae and loss to follow up from TB treatment, with TB DALYs reduced by 71% (95% UI: 65 to 76), 41% (95% UI: 36 to 49), and 10% (95% UI: 7 to 16), respectively, when these factors were eliminated. Total health system costs were largely unaffected by improvements in the care cascade, with elimination of treatment failure reducing attributable costs by 3.1% (95% UI: 1.5 to 5.4). TB diagnosis and treatment of false-positive individuals accounted for 10.2% (95% UI: 3.9 to 21.7) of total programmatic costs but contributed minimally to health losses. Several assumptions were required to interpret programmatic data for the analysis, and we were unable to estimate the contribution of social factors to care cascade outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that delays to diagnosis, post-disease sequelae and treatment loss to follow-up were primary contributors to the TB burden of disease in Brazil. Reducing delays to diagnosis, improving healthcare after TB cure, and reducing treatment loss to follow-up should be prioritized to improve the burden of TB disease in Brazil.

Partial recovery of tuberculosis preventive treatment in Brazil after pandemic drawback / Recuperação parcial do tratamento preventivo da tuberculose no Brasil após o recuo pandêmico / Recuperación parcial del tratamiento preventivo de la tuberculosis en Brasil tras el retroceso pandémico

Abstract: Brazil was heavily affected by COVID-19 both with death toll and economically, with absence of a centralized Federal Government response. Tuberculosis (TB) notifications decreased in 2020 but partial recovery was observed in 2021. We have previously shown a sharp (93%) reduction in TB preventive treatment notifications among five Brazilian cities with more than 1,000 notifications in 2021. We hypothesized TB preventive treatment would also recover. We updated the previous analysis by adding other cities that hold more than a 1,000 notifications until 2022. Data aggregated by 2-week periods were extracted from the Information System for Notifying People Undergoing Treatment for LTBI (IL-TB). Biweekly percentage change (BPC) of notifications until October 2022 and outcomes until July 2022 (in the two weeks of TB preventive treatment initiation) were analyzed using Joinpoint software. A total of 39,701 notifications in 11 cities were included, 66% from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We found a significant increase of TB preventive treatment notifications in the beginning of 2021 (BPC range 1.4-49.6), with sustained progression in seven out of the 11 cities. Overall, median completion rates were 65%. In most cities, a gradual and steady decrease of treatment completion rates was found, except for Rio de Janeiro and Manaus (Amazonas State, Brazil), where a BPC of 1.5 and 1.2, respectively, was followed by a sustained increase. Notifications and completion proportions of TB preventive treatment were heterogeneous, which partly reflects the heterogeneity in local response to the pandemic. We found that notifications were recovered, and that the sharp 2021 decrease was no longer observed, which suggests delays in notification. In conclusion, the sharp reductions in TB preventive treatment completion rates in most cities might have been caused by delays in reporting; however, the sustained and progressive decrease are a concern.

Resumo: O Brasil foi fortemente atingido pela COVID-19 tanto com número de mortes quanto economicamente, com ausência de uma resposta centralizada do Governo Federal. As notificações de tuberculose (TB) diminuíram em 2020, mas se recuperaram parcialmente em 2021. Já mostramos uma redução acentuada (93%) nas notificações de tratamento preventivo de TB nas cinco cidades brasileiras com mais de 1.000 notificações em 2021. Hipotetizamos que o tratamento preventivo de TB também recuperar-se-ia. Atualizamos a análise anterior acrescentando outras cidades que apresentaram mais de 1.000 notificações até 2022. Os dados agregados por períodos de duas semanas foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação para Notificação das Pessoas em Tratamento de ILTB (IL-TB). As notificações quinzenais de variação percentual até outubro de 2022 e os desfechos até julho de 2022 (nas duas semanas de início do tratamento precoce de TB) foram analisados usando o software Joinpoint. Foram incluídas 39.701 notificações em 11 cidades, sendo 66% delas de São Paulo e do Rio de Janeiro (Brasil). Encontramos um aumento significativo das notificações de tratamento preventivo de TB no início de 2021 (faixa de variação quinzenal percentual 1,4-49,6), com progressão sustentada em 7/11 cidades. No geral, as taxas medianas de conclusão foram de 65%. Na maioria dos municípios, houve queda gradual e constante das taxas de conclusão de tratamento, com exceção do Rio de Janeiro e Manaus (Amazonas, Brasil), onde a variação quinzenal percentual de 1,5 e 1,2, respectivamente, foi acompanhada de aumento sustentado. As notificações e proporções de tratamento preventivo de TB completados foram heterogêneas, o que reflete em parte a diversidade na resposta local à pandemia. No geral, as notificações se recuperaram e a queda acentuada de 2021 não é mais observada, o que sugere atrasos na notificação. Em conclusão, a redução das taxas de conclusão do tratamento preventivo da TB na maioria das cidades pode refletir atrasos na notificação, mas a diminuição sustentada e progressiva das notificações preocupa.

Resumen: Brasil fue seriamente afectado por el COVID-19, tanto con el número de muertes como económicamente, con la ausencia de una respuesta centralizada del Gobierno Federal. Las notificaciones de la tuberculosis (TB) redujeron en 2020, pero aumentaron parcialmente en 2021. Ya mostramos una reducción drástica (el 93%) en las notificaciones del tratamiento preventivo de la TB en las cinco ciudades brasileñas con más de 1.000 notificaciones en 2021. Nuestra hipótesis es que el tratamiento preventivo de la TB también aumentaría. Actualizamos el análisis anterior añadiendo otras ciudades que presentaron más de 1.000 notificaciones hasta 2022. Los datos agregados durante períodos de dos semanas se extrajeron del Sistema de Información de Notificaciones para Personas en Tratamiento por ILTB (IL-TB). Las notificaciones quincenales de cambio porcentual hasta octubre de 2022 y os resultados hasta julio de 2022 (en las dos semanas iniciales del tratamiento precoz de la tuberculosis) se analizaron a través del software Joinpoint. Se incluyeron 39.701 notificaciones en 11 ciudades, siendo el 66% de ellas en São Paulo y Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Encontramos un aumento significativo de las notificaciones del tratamiento preventivo de la TB a principios de 2021 (rango de cambio porcentual quincenal 1,4-49,6), con progresión sostenida en siete de las once ciudades. En general, las tasas medias de finalización fueron del 65%. En la mayoría de los municipios, hubo una reducción gradual y constante de las tasas de finalización de tratamiento, salvo en Rio de Janeiro y Manaus (Amazonas, Brasil), donde el cambio porcentual quincenal de 1,5 y 1,2, respectivamente, estuvo acompañado de un aumento sostenido. Las notificaciones y proporciones de cumplimentación del tratamiento preventivo de la TB fueron heterogéneas, lo que refleja la heterogeneidad en la respuesta local a la pandemia. En general, las notificaciones aumentaron y ya no se observa la fuerte caída de 2021 lo que refleja en parte retrasos en la notificación. En conclusión, la reducción en las tasas de finalización del tratamiento preventivo de la TB en la mayoría de las ciudades puede reflejar retrasos en la notificación, pero la reducción sostenida y progresiva es una preocupación.

Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011-2019: analysis by inflection points.

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Methods: This was an ecological time series study of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Disease Information System and the Mortality Information System, and population estimates were from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, which recognizes inflection points for temporal analysis. Results: The average incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazil in the period was 35.8 cases per 100 000 population. From 2011 to 2015, this coefficient had an annual percentage change of -1.9% (95% CI [-3.4, -0.5]) followed by an increase of 2.4% (95% CI [0.9, 3.9]) until 2019. The average mortality rate between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2 deaths per 100 000 population, with an average annual percentage change of -0.4% (95% CI [-1.0, 0.2]). Amazonas was the only state with an increase in the annual average percentage variation for the incidence rate (3.2%; 95% CI [1.3, 5.1]) and mortality rate (2.7%; 95% CI [1.0, 4.4]) over the years, while Rio de Janeiro state had an increasing inflection for incidence from 2014 to 2019 (2.4%; 95% CI [1.4, 3.5]) and annual average of decreasing percentage variation (-3.5%; 95% CI [-5.0, -1.9]). Conclusions: During the period analyzed, a decreasing trend in incidence was observed between 2011 and 2015, and an increasing trend for the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, no change in the trend for mortality was found in Brazil.

Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011–2019: analysis by inflection points / Tendencias de los coeficientes de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil, 2011-2019: análisis por puntos de inflexión / Tendências nos coeficientes de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil, 2011-2019: análise por pontos de inflexão

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Methods. This was an ecological time series study of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Disease Information System and the Mortality Information System, and population estimates were from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, which recognizes inflection points for temporal analysis. Results. The average incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazil in the period was 35.8 cases per 100 000 population. From 2011 to 2015, this coefficient had an annual percentage change of –1.9% (95% CI [–3.4, –0.5]) followed by an increase of 2.4% (95% CI [0.9, 3.9]) until 2019. The average mortality rate between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2 deaths per 100 000 population, with an average annual percentage change of –0.4% (95% CI [–1.0, 0.2]). Amazonas was the only state with an increase in the annual average percentage variation for the incidence rate (3.2%; 95% CI [1.3, 5.1]) and mortality rate (2.7%; 95% CI [1.0, 4.4]) over the years, while Rio de Janeiro state had an increasing inflection for incidence from 2014 to 2019 (2.4%; 95% CI [1.4, 3.5]) and annual average of decreasing percentage variation (–3.5%; 95% CI [–5.0, –1.9]). Conclusions. During the period analyzed, a decreasing trend in incidence was observed between 2011 and 2015, and an increasing trend for the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, no change in the trend for mortality was found in Brazil.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Analizar la tendencia temporal de las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil entre el 2011 y el 2019. Métodos. Este fue un estudio ecológico de series temporales de las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil entre el 2011 y el 2019. Los datos se obtuvieron del Sistema de Información sobre Enfermedades de Notificación Obligatoria y del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad, y las estimaciones de población proceden del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística. Las tendencias se analizaron mediante el programa de regresión Joinpoint, que reconoce los puntos de inflexión para el análisis temporal. Resultados. La tasa promedio de incidencia de tuberculosis en Brasil para el periodo fue de 35,8 casos por 100 000 habitantes. Entre el 2011 y el 2015, este coeficiente experimentó una variación porcentual anual del -1,9% (intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95% [-3,4, -0,5]), seguida por un aumento del 2,4% (IC 95% [0,9, 3,9]) hasta el 2019. La tasa de mortalidad promedio entre el 2011 y el 2019 fue de 2,2 muertes por cada 100 000 habitantes, con una variación porcentual promedio anual del -0,4% (IC del 95% [-1,0, 0,2]). El estado de Amazonas fue el único que a lo largo de los años presentó un aumento de la variación porcentual promedio anual de la tasa de incidencia (3,2%; IC del 95% [1,3, 5,1]) y de la tasa de mortalidad (2,7%; IC del 95% [1,0, 4,4]), en tanto que, entre el 2014 y el 2019, el estado de Río de Janeiro presentó una inflexión creciente de la incidencia (2,4%; IC del 95% [1,4, 3,5]) y una variación porcentual promedio anual decreciente (-3,5%; IC del 95% [-5,0, -1,9]). Conclusiones. Durante el periodo analizado, se observa una tendencia decreciente de la incidencia entre el 2011 y el 2015, y una tendencia creciente para el periodo comprendido entre el 2015 y el 2019. En cambio, no se encontró ningún cambio en la tendencia de la mortalidad en Brasil.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Analisar a tendência temporal das taxas de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil entre 2011 e 2019. Métodos. Estudo ecológico de série temporal das taxas de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil entre 2011 e 2019. Os dados foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, e as estimativas populacionais foram obtidas do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. As tendências foram analisadas por regressão joinpoint, que reconhece pontos de inflexão para análise temporal. Resultados. A taxa média de incidência da tuberculose no Brasil no período foi de 35,8 casos por 100 mil habitantes. O coeficiente teve uma variação percentual anual de –1,9% (IC 95% [–3,4; –0,5]) de 2011 a 2015, seguida de um aumento de 2,4% (IC 95% [0,9; 3,9]) até 2019. A taxa média de mortalidade entre 2011 e 2019 foi de 2,2 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes, com uma variação percentual anual média de –0,4% (IC 95% [–1,0; 0,2]). Ao longo dos anos, o Amazonas foi o único estado com aumento na variação percentual anual média na taxa de incidência (3,2%; IC 95% [1,3; 5,1]) e na taxa de mortalidade (2,7%; IC 95% [1,0; 4,4]). Já o estado do Rio de Janeiro teve inflexão crescente na incidência de 2014 a 2019 (2,4%; IC 95% [1,4; 3,5]) e média anual de variação percentual decrescente (–3,5%; IC 95% [–5,0; –1,9]). Conclusões. Durante o período analisado, foi observada uma tendência decrescente na incidência entre 2011 e 2015 e crescente entre 2015 e 2019. Por outro lado, não foi encontrada nenhuma mudança na tendência de mortalidade no Brasil.

Factors associated with unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment among homeless persons in Brazil: A retrospective cohort study from 2015 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a preventable and a curable disease. In Brazil, TB treatment outcomes are particularly worse among homeless populations who are either of black race, malnourished or living with HIV/AIDS and other comorbidities. This study therefore evaluated factors associated with unsuccessful TB treatment among homeless population (HP) compared to those with shelter. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study population was composed of 284,874 people diagnosed with TB in Brazil between 2015 and 2020 and reported in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), among which 7,749 (2.72%) were homeless and 277,125 (97.28%) were sheltered. Cox regression analysis was performed with both populations to identify factors associated with unsuccessful TB treatment, and significant predictors of TB treatment outcomes. Results show that HP are more susceptible to unfavorable outcomes when compared to sheltered people (Hazard Ratio (HR): 2.04, 95% CI 1.82-2.28). Among the HP, illicit drug use (HR: 1.38, 95% CI 1.09-1.74), mental disorders (HR: 2.12, 95% CI 1.08-4.15) and not receiving directed observed treatment (DOT) (HR: 18.37, 95% CI 12.23-27.58) are significant predictors of poor treatment outcomes. The use of illicit drugs (HR: 1.53, 95% CI 1.21-1.93) and lack of DOT (HR: 17.97, 95% CI 11.71-27.59) are associated with loss to follow-up, while lack of DOT (HR: 15.66, 95% CI 4.79-51.15) was associated with mortality among TB patients. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Homeless population living in Brazil are twice at risk of having an unsuccessful treatment, compared to those who are sheltered, with illicit drugs use, mental disorders and lack of DOT as risk factors for unsuccessful TB outcomes. Our findings reinforce the arguments for an intersectoral and integral approach to address these determinants of health among the vulnerable homeless populations.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in tuberculosis preventive treatment in Brazil: a retrospective cohort study using secondary data.

Background: Disruptions in tuberculosis services have been reported around the world since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the pandemic's effect on tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) has been poorly explored. We compared TPT-notified prescriptions and outcomes before and during the pandemic in Brazil. Methods: Retrospective cohort using secondary data from the Brazilian TPT information system in five cities with over 1000 notifications. The number of TPT prescriptions was analysed from 6 months after healthcare workers' training, in 2018, to July 2021. The proportion of TPT outcomes by the date of treatment initiation was analysed up to the end of 2020, as most outcomes of TPT started in 2021 were still unknown in July 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate trends. Findings: 14,014 TPT prescriptions were included, most from São Paulo (8032) and Rio de Janeiro (3187). Compared to the same epidemiological weeks in 2019, the number of TPT prescribed in 2020 increased in Rio de Janeiro (82%) and São Paulo (14%) and decreased in Recife (65%), Fortaleza (31%) and Manaus (44%). In 2021, however, there was a 93% reduction in TPT prescriptions in all cities. The proportion of completed TPT remained constant (median = 74%). Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil was associated with a dramatic decrease in TPT prescriptions in 2021. Treatment adherence remained constant, suggesting that health services were able to keep people on treatment but did not perform well in providing opportunities for people to enter care. Efforts are needed to expand access to TPT. Funding: Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, CNPq.

Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011-2019: analysis by inflection points / Tendencias de los coeficientes de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil, 2011-2019: análisis por puntos de inflexión / Tendências nos coeficientes de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil, 2011-2019: análise por pontos de inflexão

ABSTRACT Objective. To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Methods. This was an ecological time series study of tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Disease Information System and the Mortality Information System, and population estimates were from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, which recognizes inflection points for temporal analysis. Results. The average incidence rate of tuberculosis in Brazil in the period was 35.8 cases per 100 000 population. From 2011 to 2015, this coefficient had an annual percentage change of -1.9% (95% CI [-3.4, -0.5]) followed by an increase of 2.4% (95% CI [0.9, 3.9]) until 2019. The average mortality rate between 2011 and 2019 was 2.2 deaths per 100 000 population, with an average annual percentage change of -0.4% (95% CI [-1.0, 0.2]). Amazonas was the only state with an increase in the annual average percentage variation for the incidence rate (3.2%; 95% CI [1.3, 5.1]) and mortality rate (2.7%; 95% CI [1.0, 4.4]) over the years, while Rio de Janeiro state had an increasing inflection for incidence from 2014 to 2019 (2.4%; 95% CI [1.4, 3.5]) and annual average of decreasing percentage variation (-3.5%; 95% CI [-5.0, -1.9]). Conclusions. During the period analyzed, a decreasing trend in incidence was observed between 2011 and 2015, and an increasing trend for the period from 2015 to 2019. On the other hand, no change in the trend for mortality was found in Brazil.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Analizar la tendencia temporal de las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil entre el 2011 y el 2019. Métodos. Este fue un estudio ecológico de series temporales de las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil entre el 2011 y el 2019. Los datos se obtuvieron del Sistema de Información sobre Enfermedades de Notificación Obligatoria y del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad, y las estimaciones de población proceden del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística. Las tendencias se analizaron mediante el programa de regresión Joinpoint, que reconoce los puntos de inflexión para el análisis temporal. Resultados. La tasa promedio de incidencia de tuberculosis en Brasil para el periodo fue de 35,8 casos por 100 000 habitantes. Entre el 2011 y el 2015, este coeficiente experimentó una variación porcentual anual del -1,9% (intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95% [-3,4, -0,5]), seguida por un aumento del 2,4% (IC 95% [0,9, 3,9]) hasta el 2019. La tasa de mortalidad promedio entre el 2011 y el 2019 fue de 2,2 muertes por cada 100 000 habitantes, con una variación porcentual promedio anual del -0,4% (IC del 95% [-1,0, 0,2]). El estado de Amazonas fue el único que a lo largo de los años presentó un aumento de la variación porcentual promedio anual de la tasa de incidencia (3,2%; IC del 95% [1,3, 5,1]) y de la tasa de mortalidad (2,7%; IC del 95% [1,0, 4,4]), en tanto que, entre el 2014 y el 2019, el estado de Río de Janeiro presentó una inflexión creciente de la incidencia (2,4%; IC del 95% [1,4, 3,5]) y una variación porcentual promedio anual decreciente (-3,5%; IC del 95% [-5,0, -1,9]). Conclusiones. Durante el periodo analizado, se observa una tendencia decreciente de la incidencia entre el 2011 y el 2015, y una tendencia creciente para el periodo comprendido entre el 2015 y el 2019. En cambio, no se encontró ningún cambio en la tendencia de la mortalidad en Brasil.

RESUMO Objetivo. Analisar a tendência temporal das taxas de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil entre 2011 e 2019. Métodos. Estudo ecológico de série temporal das taxas de incidência e mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil entre 2011 e 2019. Os dados foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, e as estimativas populacionais foram obtidas do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. As tendências foram analisadas por regressão joinpoint, que reconhece pontos de inflexão para análise temporal. Resultados. A taxa média de incidência da tuberculose no Brasil no período foi de 35,8 casos por 100 mil habitantes. O coeficiente teve uma variação percentual anual de -1,9% (IC 95% [-3,4; -0,5]) de 2011 a 2015, seguida de um aumento de 2,4% (IC 95% [0,9; 3,9]) até 2019. A taxa média de mortalidade entre 2011 e 2019 foi de 2,2 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes, com uma variação percentual anual média de -0,4% (IC 95% [-1,0; 0,2]). Ao longo dos anos, o Amazonas foi o único estado com aumento na variação percentual anual média na taxa de incidência (3,2%; IC 95% [1,3; 5,1]) e na taxa de mortalidade (2,7%; IC 95% [1,0; 4,4]). Já o estado do Rio de Janeiro teve inflexão crescente na incidência de 2014 a 2019 (2,4%; IC 95% [1,4; 3,5]) e média anual de variação percentual decrescente (-3,5%; IC 95% [-5,0; -1,9]). Conclusões. Durante o período analisado, foi observada uma tendência decrescente na incidência entre 2011 e 2015 e crescente entre 2015 e 2019. Por outro lado, não foi encontrada nenhuma mudança na tendência de mortalidade no Brasil.

Development of an Index to Assess COVID-19 Hospital Care Installed Capacity in the 450 Brazilian Health Regions.

OBJECTIVE: The article seeks to assess the Brazilian health system ability to respond to the challenges imposed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by measuring the capacity of Brazilian hospitals to care for COVID-19 cases in the 450 Health Regions of the country during the year 2020. Hospital capacity refers to the availability of hospital beds, equipment, and human resources. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from the National Register of Health Facilities (CNES) regarding the availability of resources necessary to care for patients with COVID-19 in inpatient facilities (public or private) from January to December 2020. Among the assessed resources are health professionals (certified nursing assistants, nurses, physical therapists, and doctors), hospital beds (clinical, intermediate care, and intensive care units), and medical equipment (computed tomography scanners, defibrillators, electrocardiograph monitors, ventilators, and resuscitators). In addition to conducting a descriptive analysis of absolute and relative data (per 10,000 users), a synthetic indicator named Installed Capacity Index (ICI) was calculated using the multivariate principal component analysis technique to assess hospital capacity. The indicator was further stratified into value ranges to understand its evolution. RESULTS: There was an increase in all selected indicators between January and December 2020. It was possible to observe differences between the Northeast and North regions and the other regions of the country; most Health Regions presented low ICI. The ICI increased between the beginning and the end of 2020, but this evolution differed among Health Regions. The average increase in the ICI was more evident in the groups that already had considerably high baseline capacity in January 2020. CONCLUSIONS: It was possible to identify inequalities in the hospital capacity to care for patients affected by COVID -19 in the Health Regions of Brazil, with a concentration of low index values in the Northeast and North of the country. As the indicator increased throughout the year 2020, inequalities were also observed. The information here provided may be used by health authorities, providers, and managers in planning and adjusting for future COVID-19 care and in dimensioning the adequate supply of hospital beds, health-care professionals, and devices in Health Regions to reduce associated morbidity and mortality. We recommend that the ICI continue to be calculated in the coming months of the pandemic to monitor the capacity in the country's Health Regions.

COVID-19 as the leading cause of hospital deaths in the Brazilian public health system in 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the profile of hospital deaths in Brazil according to cause of admission during the pre-pandemic (2019) and pandemic periods (2020). METHODS: Descriptive study based on individual-level records of all hospital admissions with death outcomes reimbursed by the Brazilian National Health System in 2019 and 2020. RESULTS: The number of hospital deaths increased by 16.7% in 2020 compared with 2019 (522,686 vs 609,755). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was associated with 19.5% (118,879) of all hospital deaths in 2020, surpassing diseases of the circulatory system (15.4%, 93,735) and diseases of the respiratory system (14.9%, 91,035). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 was the main cause of death in public hospitals in Brazil in 2020.

Trends in COVID-19 case-fatality rates in Brazilian public hospitals: A longitudinal cohort of 398,063 hospital admissions from 1st March to 3rd October 2020.

BACKGROUND: Almost 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 were reported in Brazil in 2020. The case fatality rate of a new infectious disease can vary by different risk factors and over time. We analysed the trends and associated factors of COVID-19 case fatality rates in Brazilian public hospital admissions during the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of all COVID-19-related admissions between epidemiological weeks 10-40 in the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) was delimited from available reimbursement records. Smoothing time series and survival analyses were conducted to evaluate the trends of hospital case fatality rates (CFR) and the probability of death according to factors such as sex, age, ethnicity, comorbidities, length of stay and ICU use. RESULTS: With 398,063 admissions and 86,452 (21.7%) deaths, the overall age-standardized hospital CFR trend decreased throughout the period, varying from 31.8% (95%CI: 31.2 to 32.5%) in week 10 to 18.2% (95%CI: 17.6 to 18.8%) in week 40. This decreasing trend was observed in all sex, age, ethnic groups, length of stay and ICU admissions. Consistently, later admission (from July to September) was an independent protective factor. Patients 80+ year old had a hazard ratio of 8.18 (95% CI: 7.51 to 8.91). Ethnicity, comorbidities, and ICU need were also associated with the death risk. Although also decreasing, the CFR was always around 40-50% in people who needed an ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: The overall hospital CFR of COVID-19 has decreased in Brazilian public hospitals during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, during the entire period, the CFR was still very high, suggesting the need for improving COVID-19 hospital care in Brazil.

The association between a conditional cash transfer programme and malaria incidence: a longitudinal ecological study in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015.

BACKGROUND: Malaria causes 400 thousand deaths worldwide annually. In 2018, 25% (187,693) of the total malaria cases in the Americas were in Brazil, with nearly all (99%) Brazilian cases in the Amazon region. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) is a conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme launched in 2003 to reduce poverty and has led to improvements in health outcomes. CCT programmes may reduce the burden of malaria by alleviating poverty and by promoting access to healthcare, however this relationship is underexplored. This study investigated the association between BFP coverage and malaria incidence in Brazil. METHODS: A longitudinal panel study was conducted of 807 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for demographic and socioeconomic covariates and time trends were employed with fixed effects specifications. RESULTS: A one percentage point increase in municipal BFP coverage was associated with a 0.3% decrease in the incidence of malaria (RR = 0.997; 95% CI = 0.994-0.998). The average municipal BFP coverage increased 24 percentage points over the period 2004-2015 corresponding to be a reduction of 7.2% in the malaria incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Higher coverage of the BFP was associated with a reduction in the incidence of malaria. CCT programmes should be encouraged in endemic regions for malaria in order to mitigate the impact of disease and poverty itself in these settings.