Explainable hierarchical clustering for patient subtyping and risk prediction.

We present a pipeline in which machine learning techniques are used to automatically identify and evaluate subtypes of hospital patients admitted between 2017 and 2021 in a large UK teaching hospital. Patient clusters are determined using routinely collected hospital data, such as those used in the UK's National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). An iterative, hierarchical clustering process was used to identify the minimum set of relevant features for cluster separation. With the use of state-of-the-art explainability techniques, the identified subtypes are interpreted and assigned clinical meaning, illustrating their robustness. In parallel, clinicians assessed intracluster similarities and intercluster differences of the identified patient subtypes within the context of their clinical knowledge. For each cluster, outcome prediction models were trained and their forecasting ability was illustrated against the NEWS2 of the unclustered patient cohort. These preliminary results suggest that subtype models can outperform the established NEWS2 method, providing improved prediction of patient deterioration. By considering both the computational outputs and clinician-based explanations in patient subtyping, we aim to highlight the mutual benefit of combining machine learning techniques with clinical expertise.

Neurons in the Dorsomedial Hypothalamus Promote, Prolong, and Deepen Torpor in the Mouse.

Torpor is a naturally occurring, hypometabolic, hypothermic state engaged by a wide range of animals in response to imbalance between the supply and demand for nutrients. Recent work has identified some of the key neuronal populations involved in daily torpor induction in mice, in particular, projections from the preoptic area of the hypothalamus to the dorsomedial hypothalamus (DMH). The DMH plays a role in thermoregulation, control of energy expenditure, and circadian rhythms, making it well positioned to contribute to the expression of torpor. We used activity-dependent genetic TRAPing techniques to target DMH neurons that were active during natural torpor bouts in female mice. Chemogenetic reactivation of torpor-TRAPed DMH neurons in calorie-restricted mice promoted torpor, resulting in longer and deeper torpor bouts. Chemogenetic inhibition of torpor-TRAPed DMH neurons did not block torpor entry, suggesting a modulatory role for the DMH in the control of torpor. This work adds to the evidence that the preoptic area of the hypothalamus and the DMH form part of a circuit within the mouse hypothalamus that controls entry into daily torpor.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Daily heterotherms, such as mice, use torpor to cope with environments in which the supply of metabolic fuel is not sufficient for the maintenance of normothermia. Daily torpor involves reductions in body temperature, as well as active suppression of heart rate and metabolism. How the CNS controls this profound deviation from normal homeostasis is not known, but a projection from the preoptic area to the dorsomedial hypothalamus has recently been implicated. We demonstrate that the dorsomedial hypothalamus contains neurons that are active during torpor. Activity in these neurons promotes torpor entry and maintenance, but their activation alone does not appear to be sufficient for torpor entry.

Turn it off and on again: characteristics and control of torpor.

Torpor is a hypothermic, hypoactive, hypometabolic state entered into by a wide range of animals in response to environmental challenge. This review summarises the current understanding of torpor. We start by describing the characteristics of the wide-ranging physiological adaptations associated with torpor. Next follows a discussion of thermoregulation, control of food intake and energy expenditure, and the interactions of sleep and thermoregulation, with particular emphasis on how those processes pertain to torpor. We move on to review the evidence for the systems that control torpor entry, including both the efferent circulating factors that signal the need for torpor, and the central processes that orchestrate it. Finally, we consider how the putative circuits responsible for torpor induction integrate with the established understanding of thermoregulation under non-torpid conditions and highlight important areas of uncertainty for future studies.

Protein recycling and limb muscle recovery after critical illness in slow- and fast-twitch limb muscle.

An impaired capacity of muscle to regenerate after critical illness results in long-term functional disability. We previously described in a long-term rat peritonitis model that gastrocnemius displays near-normal histology whereas soleus demonstrates a necrotizing phenotype. We thus investigated the link between the necrotizing phenotype of critical illness myopathy and proteasome activity in these two limb muscles. We studied male Wistar rats that underwent an intraperitoneal injection of the fungal cell wall constituent zymosan or n-saline as a sham-treated control. Rats (n = 74) were killed at 2, 7, and 14 days postintervention with gastrocnemius and soleus muscle removed and studied ex vivo. Zymosan-treated animals displayed an initial reduction of body weight but a persistent decrease in mass of both lower hindlimb muscles. Zymosan increased chymotrypsin- and trypsin-like proteasome activities in gastrocnemius at days 2 and 7 but in soleus at day 2 only. Activated caspases-3 and -9, polyubiquitin proteins, and 14-kDa fragments of myofibrillar actin (proteasome substrates) remained persistently increased from day 2 to day 14 in soleus but not in gastrocnemius. These results suggest that a relative proteasome deficiency in soleus is associated with a necrotizing phenotype during long-term critical illness. Rescuing proteasome clearance may offer a potential therapeutic option to prevent long-term functional disability in critically ill patients.

Solid-liquid interfacial free energy of ice Ih, ice Ic, and ice 0 within a mono-atomic model of water via the capillary wave method.

We apply the capillary wave method, based on measurements of fluctuations in a ribbon-like interfacial geometry, to determine the solid-liquid interfacial free energy for both polytypes of ice I and the recently proposed ice 0 within a mono-atomic model of water. We discuss various choices for the molecular order parameter, which distinguishes solid from liquid, and demonstrate the influence of this choice on the interfacial stiffness. We quantify the influence of discretisation error when sampling the interfacial profile and the limits on accuracy imposed by the assumption of quasi one-dimensional geometry. The interfacial free energies of the two ice I polytypes are indistinguishable to within achievable statistical error and the small ambiguity which arises from the choice of order parameter. In the case of ice 0, we find that the large surface unit cell for low index interfaces constrains the width of the interfacial ribbon such that the accuracy of results is reduced. Nevertheless, we establish that the interfacial free energy of ice 0 at its melting temperature is similar to that of ice I under the same conditions. The rationality of a core-shell model for the nucleation of ice I within ice 0 is questioned within the context of our results.

Evidence for a causal link between sepsis and long-term mortality: a systematic review of epidemiologic studies.

BACKGROUND: In addition to acute hospital mortality, sepsis is associated with higher risk of death following hospital discharge. We assessed the strength of epidemiological evidence supporting a causal link between sepsis and mortality after hospital discharge by systematically evaluating the available literature for strength of association, bias, and techniques to address confounding. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase using the following 'mp' terms, MESH headings and combinations thereof - sepsis, septic shock, septicemia, outcome. Studies published since 1992 where one-year post-acute mortality in adult survivors of acute sepsis could be calculated were included. Two authors independently selected studies and extracted data using predefined criteria and data extraction forms to assess risk of bias, confounding, and causality. The difference in proportion between cumulative one-year mortality and acute mortality was defined as post-acute mortality. Meta-analysis was done by sepsis definition categories with post-acute mortality as the primary outcome. RESULTS: The literature search identified 11,156 records, of which 59 studies met our inclusion criteria and 43 studies reported post-acute mortality. In patients who survived an index sepsis admission, the post-acute mortality was 16.1% (95% CI 14.1, 18.1%) with significant heterogeneity (p < 0.001), on random effects meta-analysis. In studies reporting non-sepsis control arm comparisons, sepsis was not consistently associated with a higher hazard ratio for post-acute mortality. The additional hazard associated with sepsis was greatest when compared to the general population. Older age, male sex, and presence of comorbidities were commonly reported independent predictors of post-acute mortality in sepsis survivors, challenging the causality relationship. Sensitivity analyses for post-acute mortality were consistent with primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemiologic criteria for a causal relationship between sepsis and post-acute mortality were not consistently observed. Additional epidemiologic studies with recent patient level data that address the pre-illness trajectory, confounding, and varying control groups are needed to estimate sepsis-attributable additional risk and modifiable risk factors to design interventional trials.

The neurological assessment in young children treated with artesunate monotherapy or artesunate-mefloquine combination therapy for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

BACKGROUND: Mefloquine and artesunate combination therapy is the recommended first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria throughout much of south-east Asia. Concerns have been raised about the potential central nervous system (CNS) effects of both drug components and there are no detailed reports in very young children. METHODS: Children, aged between three months and five years, with acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were randomized to either 7 days of artesunate monotherapy or the same schedule of artesunate plus mefloquine on day 7 and 8. Neurological testing targeting coordination and behaviour was carried out at day 0, 7, 9, 10, 14 and 28. Non-febrile healthy control children from the same population were tested on days 0, 7, 14 and 28. RESULTS: From December 1994 to July 1997, 91 children with uncomplicated P. falciparum, 45 treated with artesunate monotherapy, 46 treated with mefloquine and artesunate combination therapy and 36 non-febrile controls, underwent neurological testing. Malaria and fever had a significant negative impact on testing performance. By contrast, the anti-malarial treatments were not associated with worsening performances in the various components of the test. Artesunate and mefloquine do not appear to have a significant influence on coordination and behaviour. Children treated with mefloquine were significantly less likely to suffer recurrent malaria infection during follow-up compared to those treated with artesunate alone (P = 0.033). CONCLUSION: In keeping with the results of randomized controlled trials in adults, mefloquine was not associated with a decrease in specific items of neurological performance. Likewise, children treated with artesunate did not perform significantly differently to control children. This study does not exclude subtle or rare treatment CNS effects of artesunate or mefloquine. Treatment of acute uncomplicated malaria results in a significant improvement on items of neurological performance.