Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves.

As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait-based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non-threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave-vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non-vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non-vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave-vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.

A conceptual framework for assessing behavioral flexibility of species in response to extreme climatic events.

Inherent differences in the adaptive capacity of species to flexibly respond to extreme climatic events (ECEs) represent a key factor in their survivorship. We introduce and apply a conceptual framework linking knowledge about species' current ecology and biology with variation in behavioral flexibility to ECEs. We applied it to 199 non-human primate species currently exposed to cyclones across the global tropics. Our findings suggest that species characterized by an increased ability to exploit a broad range of food types, social systems that permit subgrouping, and habitat types that span a range of environmental conditions may have greater success in coping with cyclones than more narrowly constrained or less adaptable primates. Overall, 15% of species, predominantly of the families Atelidae and Cercopithecidae, were assessed as having high or very high flexibility. In contrast, ~ 60% of primates were assessed with low or very low flexibility. These were species mainly belonging to the Cheirogaleidae, Lemuridae, Lepilemuridae, and Indriidae. While much work remains to better understand mechanisms driving differences in behavioral flexibility of species exposed to extreme climate across vertebrate lineages, our framework provides a workable approach that can improve estimates of current vulnerability to these phenomena and better inform conservation and management strategies.

Taxonomy, distribution, and contemporary exposure of terrestrial mammals to floods and human pressure across different areas for biodiversity conservation in China.

A significant research focus is placed on identifying animal species and areas at future risk to human-induced alterations of the environment and long-term changes in climatic conditions. Yet, the extent to which exposure to extreme climatic events and intense human pressure can increase the risk of harmful impacts on species remains poorly investigated. Focusing on terrestrial mammals in China, one of the world's megadiverse countries, we investigated patterns of contemporary exposure to floods and human pressures and determined their taxonomic representation and distribution across three major area-based conservation schemes, namely, national nature reserves (NNRs), priority areas for biodiversity conservation (PABCs), and key biodiversity areas (KBAs). Among the 440 species assessed with moderate or high exposure to floods, 327 (∼75%) also qualified as moderate or high in exposure to intense human pressure. These species mainly belong to the orders Chiroptera, Eulipotyphla, and Rodentia. Likewise, there were 305, 311, and 311 species with moderate or high exposure to flood and intense human pressure represented across NNRs, PABCs, and KBAs, respectively. Our findings support the prioritization of KBAs for expansion of site-based protection efforts such as NNRs in China, considering threats to species from exposure to adverse effects from both extreme climate and human pressure.