Comment on Cook, B.; Mulgan, N. Targeted Mop up and Robust Response Tools Can Achieve and Maintain Possum Freedom on the Mainland. Animals 2022, 12, 921.

The recent paper published by Cook and Mulgan [...].

Detection parameters for managing invasive rats in urban environments.

Effective mitigation of the impacts of invasive ship rats (Rattus rattus) requires a good understanding of their ecology, but this knowledge is very sparse for urban and peri-urban areas. We radiomarked ship rats in Wellington, New Zealand, to estimate detection parameters (σ, ε0, θ, and g0) that describe the process of an animal encountering a device (bait stations, chew cards and WaxTags) from a distance, and then approaching it and deciding whether to interact with it. We used this information in simulation models to estimate optimal device spacing for eradicating ship rats from Wellington, and for confirming eradication. Mean σ was 25.37 m (SD = 11.63), which equates to a circular home range of 1.21 ha. The mean nightly probability of an individual encountering a device at its home range center (ε0) was 0.38 (SD = 0.11), whereas the probability of interacting with the encountered device (θ) was 0.34 (SD = 0.12). The derived mean nightly probability of an individual interacting with a device at its home range center (g0) was 0.13 (SD = 0.08). Importantly, σ and g0 are intrinsically linked through a negative relationship, thus g0 should be derived from σ using a predictive model including individual variability. Simulations using this approach showed that bait stations deployed for about 500 days using a 25 m × 25 m grid consistently achieved eradication, and that a surveillance network of 3.25 chew cards ha-1 or 3.75 WaxTags ha-1 active for 14 nights would be required to confidently declare eradication. This density could be halved if the surveillance network was deployed for 28 nights or if the prior confidence in eradication was high (0.85). These recommendations take no account of differences in detection parameters between habitats. Therefore, if surveillance suggests that individuals are not encountering devices in certain habitats, device density should be adaptively revised. This approach applies to initiatives globally that aim to optimise eradication with limited funding.

How important is individual foraging specialisation in invasive predators for native-prey population viability?

Predation by invasive species is a major threat to the persistence of naïve prey. Typically, this negative effect is addressed by suppressing the population size of the invasive predator to a point where the predation pressure does not hinder the viability of the prey. However, this type of intervention may not be effective whenever a few specialised predators are the cause of the decline. We investigated the effects of varying levels of specialised invasive stoats (Mustela erminea) abundance on the long-term viability of simulated kiwi (Apteryx spp.) populations. We explored four scenarios with different proportions of highly specialised stoats, which were those that had a ≥ 0.75 probability of predating kiwi eggs and chicks if they were within their home range: (i) a stoat population composed mostly of generalists (mean: 0.5 probability of predation across the population); (ii) 5% of highly specialised stoats and the remaining being generalists; (iii) 10% of highly specialised stoats and the remaining being generalists; and, (iv) half highly specialised stoats and half generalists. We found that stoat home range sizes, rather than stoat density or the density of highly specialised stoats, was the main driver of kiwi population trends. Stoats with large home ranges were more likely to predate kiwi eggs and chicks as these were more likely to fall within a large home range. More broadly, our findings show how the daily individual ranging and foraging behaviour of an invasive predator can scale-up to shape population trends of naïve prey.

Evaluating the effects of landscape structure on the recovery of an invasive vertebrate after population control.

CONTEXT: Effective landscape control of invasive species is context-dependent due to the interplay between the landscape structure, local population dynamics, and metapopulation processes. We use a modelling approach incorporating these three elements to explore the drivers of recovery of populations of invasive species after control. OBJECTIVES: We aim to improve our understanding of the factors influencing the landscape-level control of invasive species. METHODS: We focus on the case study of invasive brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) control in New Zealand. We assess how 13 covariates describing the landscape, patch, and population features influence the time of population recovery to a management density threshold of two possums/ha. We demonstrate the effects of those covariates on population recovery under three scenarios of population growth: logistic growth, strong Allee effects, and weak Allee effects. RESULTS: Recovery times were rapid regardless of the simulated population dynamics (average recovery time < 2 years), although populations experiencing Allee effects took longer to recover than those growing logistically. Our results indicate that habitat availability and patch area play a key role in reducing times to recovery after control, and this relationship is consistent across the three simulated scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The control of invasive possum populations in patchy landscapes would benefit from a patch-level management approach (considering each patch as an independent management unit), whereas simple landscapes would be better controlled by taking a landscape-level view (the landscape as the management unit). Future research should test the predictions of our models with empirical data to refine control operations.

A concise guide to developing and using quantitative models in conservation management.

Quantitative models are powerful tools for informing conservation management and decision-making. As applied modeling is increasingly used to address conservation problems, guidelines are required to clarify the scope of modeling applications and to facilitate the impact and acceptance of models by practitioners. We identify three key roles for quantitative models in conservation management: (a) to assess the extent of a conservation problem; (b) to provide insights into the dynamics of complex social and ecological systems; and, (c) to evaluate the efficacy of proposed conservation interventions. We describe 10 recommendations to facilitate the acceptance of quantitative models in conservation management, providing a basis for good practice to guide their development and evaluation in conservation applications. We structure these recommendations within four established phases of model construction, enabling their integration within existing workflows: (a) design (two recommendations); (b) specification (two); (c) evaluation (one); and (d) inference (five). Quantitative modeling can support effective conservation management provided that both managers and modelers understand and agree on the place for models in conservation. Our concise review and recommendations will assist conservation managers and modelers to collaborate in the development of quantitative models that are fit-for-purpose, and to trust and use these models appropriately while understanding key drivers of uncertainty.

Modeling habituation of introduced predators to unrewarding bird odors for conservation of ground-nesting shorebirds.

Foraging mammalian predators face a myriad of odors from potential prey. To be efficient, they must focus on rewarding odors while ignoring consistently unrewarding ones. This may be exploited as a nonlethal conservation tool if predators can be deceived into ignoring odors of vulnerable secondary prey. To explore critical design components and assess the potential gains to prey survival of this technique, we created an individual-based model that simulated the hunting behavior of three introduced mammalian predators on one of their secondary prey (a migratory shorebird) in the South Island of New Zealand. Within this model, we heuristically assessed the outcome of habituating the predators to human-deployed unrewarding bird odors before the bird's arrival at their breeding grounds, i.e., the predators were "primed." Using known home range sizes and probabilities of predators interacting with food lures, our model suggests that wide-ranging predators should encounter a relatively large number of odor points (between 10 and 115) during 27 d of priming when odor is deployed within high-resolution grids (100-150 m). Using this information, we then modeled the effect of different habituation curves (exponential and sigmoidal) on the probability of predators depredating shorebird nests. Our results show that important gains in nest survival can be achieved regardless of the shape of the habituation curve, but particularly if predators are fast olfactory learners (exponential curve), and even if some level of dishabituation occurs after prey become available. Predictions from our model can inform the amount and pattern in which olfactory stimuli need to be deployed in the field to optimize encounters by predators, and the relative gains that can be expected from reduced predation pressure on secondary prey under different scenarios of predator learning. Habituating predators to odors of threatened secondary prey may have particular efficacy as a conservation tool in areas where lethal predator control is not possible or ethical, or where even low predator densities can be detrimental to prey survival. Our approach is also relevant for determining interaction probabilities for devices other than odor points, such as bait stations and camera traps.

Roll-Back Eradication of Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) From Wildlife in New Zealand: Concepts, Evolving Approaches, and Progress.

The New Zealand government and agricultural industries recently jointly adopted the goal of nationally eradicating bovine tuberculosis (TB) from livestock and wildlife reservoirs by 2055. Only Australia has eradicated TB from a wildlife maintenance host. Elsewhere the disease is often self-sustaining in a variety of wildlife hosts, usually making eradication an intractable problem. The New Zealand strategy for eradicating TB from wildlife is based on quantitative assessment using a Bayesian "Proof of Freedom" framework. This is used to assess the probability that TB has been locally eradicated from a given area. Here we describe the framework (the concepts, methods and tools used to assess TB freedom and how they are being applied and updated). We then summarize recent decision theory research aimed at optimizing the balance between the risk of falsely declaring areas free and the risk of overspending on disease management when the disease is already locally extinct. We explore potential new approaches for further optimizing the allocation of management resources, especially for places where existing methods are impractical or expensive, including using livestock as sentinels. We also describe how the progressive roll-back of locally eradicated areas scales up operationally and quantitatively to achieve and confirm eradication success over the entire country. Lastly, we review the progress made since the framework was first formally adopted in 2011. We conclude that eradication of TB from New Zealand is feasible, and that we are well on the way to achieving this outcome.

Movements and habitat preferences of pests help to improve population control: the case of common brushtail possums in a New Zealand dryland ecosystem.

BACKGROUND: Introduced brushtail possums are controlled in New Zealand to mitigate their spread of bovine tuberculosis in livestock. Given the low rainfall and extreme variation in seasonal temperatures in dryland areas of the South Island, the habitats of possums in these areas differ in many respects from those in the rest of New Zealand. We investigated the movements and habitat preferences of possums at two dryland sites to identify where they aggregate following population control by using GPS collars and cards chewed by possums. At one site, possum numbers were reduced from high levels by 65%, and at the other site, possums had already been reduced to low levels for some time beforehand but were further reduced to maintain them at low levels. This resulted in different possum densities. RESULTS: Possum home ranges were about 3 times smaller at the higher-density site, but average ranges expanded by 27% following initial control. Home ranges were already large at the lower-density site but did not expand further after maintenance control. No preference for habitat types was apparent at the higher-density site, but at the lower-density site possums selected rock and shrubby habitats and avoided open grassy areas. CONCLUSIONS: Home range sizes and habitat preferences were density dependent: the lower the density, the larger was the home range; and habitat preferences were highly variable between individuals, but less so for possums at low density. Preference for shrubs and rocks is likely to benefit population control if population control devices are focused on these habitat types. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant.

Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands.

A modelling framework for predicting the optimal balance between control and surveillance effort in the local eradication of tuberculosis in New Zealand wildlife.

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) impacts livestock farming in New Zealand, where the introduced marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the wildlife maintenance host for Mycobacterium bovis. New Zealand has implemented a campaign to control TB using a co-ordinated programme of livestock diagnostic testing and large-scale culling of possums, with the long-term aim of TB eradication. For management of the disease in wildlife, methods that can optimise the balance between control and surveillance effort will facilitate the objective of eradication on a fixed or limited budget. We modelled and compared management options to optimise the balance between the two activities necessary to achieve and verify eradication of TB from New Zealand wildlife: the number of lethal population control operations required to halt the M. bovis infection cycle in possums, and the subsequent surveillance effort needed to confidently declare TB freedom post-control. The approach considered the costs of control and surveillance, as well as the potential costs of re-control resulting from false declaration of TB freedom. The required years of surveillance decreased with increasing numbers of possum lethal control operations but the overall time to declare TB freedom depended on additional factors, such as the probability of freedom from disease after control and the probability of success of mop-up control, i.e. retroactive culling following detection of persistent disease in the residual possum population. The total expected cost was also dependent on a number of factors, many of which had wide cost ranges, suggesting that an optimal strategy is unlikely to be singular and fixed, but will likely vary for each different area being considered. Our approach provides a simple framework that considers the known and potential costs of possum control and TB surveillance, enabling managers to optimise the balance between these two activities to achieve and prove eradication of a wildlife disease, or the pest species that transmits it, in the most expedient and economic way. This cost- and risk-evaluation approach may be applicable to other wildlife disease problems where limited management funds exist.

Assessing Movements of Brushtail Possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in Relation to Depopulated Buffer Zones for the Management of Wildlife Tuberculosis in New Zealand.

In New Zealand, managing the threat of bovine tuberculosis (TB) to livestock includes population reduction of potentially infectious wildlife, primarily the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). Population control is often targeted on forested buffer zones adjacent to farmland, in order to limit movements of possums across the buffer and reduce the risk of disease transmission to livestock. To assess the effectiveness of buffers in protecting livestock we analysed GPS telemetry data from possums located in untreated forest adjacent to buffers, and used these data to characterise patterns of movement that could lead to possums reaching farmland during the season when most dispersal occurs. Analyses of movement data showed that the direction of dispersal by sub-adult and adult possums and the extent of long exploratory movements were not biased toward forest buffers, even though these provided vacant habitat as suitable for possums as untreated forest. Instead, dispersal and exploratory movements were uncommon even for sub-adult possums and such events typically lasted <10 days. Dispersing possums settled predominantly in river valleys. A simulation model was developed for the 3-6-month dispersal season; it demonstrated a probability of <0.001 that an infected possum, originating from a low-density population with low disease prevalence in untreated forest, would move across 3 km of recently controlled forest buffer to reach farmland. Our results indicate short-term reduction in the risk of TB transmission from possums to livestock in New Zealand by the use of depopulated buffer zones, while acknowledging that the threat of disease spread from untreated forest is likely to increase over time as possum population density and, potentially, TB prevalence among those possums, increase in the buffer zone.

Environmental factors influencing the seasonality of estrus in chimpanzees.

Although the energetics of the estrous cycle in primates is not well understood, evidence suggests that energy and nutrient acquisition influence ovulation and the timing of conception. Energy for estrus has to compete with energy allocated for cellular maintenance, thermoregulation, movement for food, and predation avoidance. While some chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) populations do not have a seasonal birth period, evidence suggests that there is seasonality in the number of estrous females. Similarly, the onset of postpartum cycles has been reported to be seasonal. We used 33 months of data from the Taï National Park, Côte d'Ivoire, to examine how the number of estrous females in a given month was influenced by the abundance and distribution of food, diet, rainfall and temperature. In a second analysis, we examined if there was a seasonal effect on first estrous swellings in adolescent females and postpartum adult females. Results demonstrated that the number of females in estrous in a given month was positively related to food abundance and percent foraging time spent eating insects, and negatively related to mean rainfall in the two preceding months and the mean high temperature. The timing of first estrous swellings of postpartum females and prepartum young females was positively related to the food abundance, and negatively related to mean high temperature. These results showed that environmental conditions can seasonally limit the energetically demanding estrus cycle. The presence of estrous females increases gregariousness in chimpanzee communities, and this study identified environmental factors that affect estrus directly and hence social grouping indirectly.