Pooled Analysis of Meningioma Risk Following Treatment for Childhood Cancer.

Importance: Meningioma is the most common subsequent neoplasm following cranial irradiation among survivors of childhood cancer, but there are still uncertainties regarding the magnitude of the radiation dose-response association, potential modifiers of radiation risks, and the role of chemotherapy. Objective: To evaluate meningioma risk in survivors of childhood cancer following radiotherapy and chemotherapy and identify possible modifying factors of radiation-associated risk. Design, Setting, and Participants: This international case-control study pooled data from 4 nested case-control studies of survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed between 1942 and 2000, followed through 2016. Cases were defined as participants diagnosed with a subsequent meningioma. Controls were matched to cases based on sex, age at first cancer diagnosis, and duration of follow-up. Data were analyzed from July 2019 to June 2022. Exposures: Radiation dose (Gy) to the meningioma site and cumulative chemotherapy doses, including intrathecal and systemic methotrexate doses. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was subsequent meningioma, assessed using odds ratios (ORs) and excess odds ratios per gray (EOR/Gy). Results: The analysis included 273 survivors of childhood cancer who developed meningioma (cases) and 738 survivors who did not (controls), with a total of 1011 individuals (median [IQR] age at first cancer diagnosis 5.0 [3.0-9.2] years; 599 [59.2%] female). Median (IQR) time since first cancer was 21.5 (15.0-27.0) years. Increasing radiation dose was associated with increased risk of meningioma (EOR/Gy, 1.44; 95% CI, 0.62-3.61), and there was no evidence of departure from linearity (P = .90). Compared with survivors who were not exposed to radiation therapy, those who received doses of 24 Gy or more had more than 30-fold higher odds of meningioma (OR, 33.66; 95% CI, 14.10-80.31). The radiation dose-response association was significantly lower among patients treated at age 10 years or older compared with those treated before age 10 years (EOR/Gy, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.18-1.91 vs 2.20; 95% CI, 0.87-6.31; P for heterogeneity = .03). Risk associated with radiation remained significantly elevated 30 years after exposure (EOR/Gy, 3.76; 95% CI, 0.77-29.15). We found an increased risk of meningioma among children who had received methotrexate (OR, 3.43; 95% CI, 1.56-7.57), but no evidence of a dose-response association or interaction with radiation dose. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the meninges are highly radiosensitive, especially for children treated before age 10 years. These results support the reduction in whole-brain irradiation over recent decades and the prioritization of approaches that limit radiation exposure in healthy tissue for children. The persistence of elevated risks of meningiomas for 30 years after cranial radiotherapy could help inform surveillance guidelines.

Risk and outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma in liver cirrhosis in Southern Sweden: a population-based study.

Background and aims: Liver cirrhosis is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While the HCC risk is thought to be highest in hepatitis B and hepatitis C, the risk in other cirrhosis etiologies is not fully established. Therefore, we aimed to study the risk and outcome of HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis compared to cirrhosis of other etiologies, in Sweden. Material and methods: We used population-based medical registries to identify patients diagnosed with cirrhosis in the Scania region in southern Sweden between 2001 and 2010. Medical records were reviewed to identify all HCC cases and to register clinical parameters. All patients were followed until death, emigration or December 2017. Results: The cohort comprised 1317 patients with cirrhosis. A total of 200 patient developed HCC, including 75 with prevalent HCC. The annual incidence of HCC after six months was 1.5% in alcoholic cirrhosis and 4.7% in hepatitis C cirrhosis. In alcoholic cirrhosis, 40 patients were diagnosed with HCC during follow-up, of which 15 patients fulfilled the Milan criteria and 10 received treatment, curative or palliative. The overall median survival after HCC diagnosis was 7.7 months, with 4.5, 11 and 9.3 months, in cirrhosis due to alcohol, hepatitis C or remaining causes, respectively. Conclusion: We find an annual incidence of HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis of 1.5% indicating need for surveillance in these patients. Survival after HCC diagnosis was worst in alcoholic cirrhosis due to more advanced stage at diagnosis with few patients eligible for treatment.

Ultra-hypofractionated versus conventionally fractionated radiotherapy for prostate cancer: 5-year outcomes of the HYPO-RT-PC randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Hypofractionated radiotherapy for prostate cancer has gained increased attention due to its proposed high radiation-fraction sensitivity. Recent reports from studies comparing moderately hypofractionated and conventionally fractionated radiotherapy support the clinical use of moderate hypofractionation. To date, there are no published randomised studies on ultra-hypofractionated radiotherapy. Here, we report the outcomes of the Scandinavian HYPO-RT-PC phase 3 trial with the aim to show non-inferiority of ultra-hypofractionation compared with conventional fractionation. METHODS: In this open-label, randomised, phase 3 non-inferiority trial done in 12 centres in Sweden and Denmark, we recruited men up to 75 years of age with intermediate-to-high-risk prostate cancer and a WHO performance status between 0 and 2. Patients were randomly assigned to ultra-hypofractionation (42·7 Gy in seven fractions, 3 days per week for 2·5 weeks) or conventional fractionated radiotherapy (78·0 Gy in 39 fractions, 5 days per week for 8 weeks). No androgen deprivation therapy was allowed. The primary endpoint was time to biochemical or clinical failure, analysed in the per-protocol population. The prespecified non-inferiority margin was 4% at 5 years, corresponding to a critical hazard ratio (HR) limit of 1·338. Physician-recorded toxicity was measured according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) morbidity scale and patient-reported outcome measurements with the Prostate Cancer Symptom Scale (PCSS) questionnaire. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN45905321. FINDINGS: Between July 1, 2005, and Nov 4, 2015, 1200 patients were randomly assigned to conventional fractionation (n=602) or ultra-hypofractionation (n=598), of whom 1180 (591 conventional fractionation and 589 ultra-hypofractionation) constituted the per-protocol population. 1054 (89%) participants were intermediate risk and 126 (11%) were high risk. Median follow-up time was 5·0 years (IQR 3·1-7·0). The estimated failure-free survival at 5 years was 84% (95% CI 80-87) in both treatment groups, with an adjusted HR of 1·002 (95% CI 0·758-1·325; log-rank p=0·99). There was weak evidence of an increased frequency of acute physician-reported RTOG grade 2 or worse urinary toxicity in the ultra-hypofractionation group at end of radiotherapy (158 [28%] of 569 patients vs 132 [23%] of 578 patients; p=0·057). There were no significant differences in grade 2 or worse urinary or bowel late toxicity between the two treatment groups at any point after radiotherapy, except for an increase in urinary toxicity in the ultra-hypofractionation group compared to the conventional fractionation group at 1-year follow-up (32 [6%] of 528 patients vs 13 [2%] of 529 patients; (p=0·0037). We observed no differences between groups in frequencies at 5 years of RTOG grade 2 or worse urinary toxicity (11 [5%] of 243 patients for the ultra-hypofractionation group vs 12 [5%] of 249 for the conventional fractionation group; p=1·00) and bowel toxicity (three [1%] of 244 patients vs nine [4%] of 249 patients; p=0·14). Patient-reported outcomes revealed significantly higher levels of acute urinary and bowel symptoms in the ultra-hypofractionation group compared with the conventional fractionation group but no significant increases in late symptoms were found, except for increased urinary symptoms at 1-year follow-up, consistent with the physician-evaluated toxicity. INTERPRETATION: Ultra-hypofractionated radiotherapy is non-inferior to conventionally fractionated radiotherapy for intermediate-to-high risk prostate cancer regarding failure-free survival. Early side-effects are more pronounced with ultra-hypofractionation compared with conventional fractionation whereas late toxicity is similar in both treatment groups. The results support the use of ultra-hypofractionation for radiotherapy of prostate cancer. FUNDING: The Nordic Cancer Union, the Swedish Cancer Society, and the Swedish Research Council.

Clinical course and mortality by etiology of liver cirrhosis in Sweden: a population based, long-term follow-up study of 1317 patients.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is characterized by a silent phase until decompensation, which is defined by ascites, bleeding from esophageal varices or hepatic encephalopathy. AIM: To compare the clinical course, patterns of survival and causes of death by etiology during long-term follow-up in a large population-based cohort of patients with incident cirrhosis. METHODS: We used population-based medical registries for a cohort study of patients with liver cirrhosis diagnosed January 2001 to December 2010, in the Scania region of Sweden. Medical records were reviewed. Patients were classified according to etiology and clinical parameters were registered. Patients were followed until December 2017. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 1317 patients, 631 were decompensated at diagnosis and 387 decompensated during follow-up. The cumulative 10-year incidence of decompensation, with death and transplantation as competing risks, was 89% in alcoholic cirrhosis, 58% in hepatitis C and 75% in cryptogenic cirrhosis. The lowest 10-year transplantation-free survival rates were found in cryptogenic cirrhosis (11%), alcohol-related cirrhosis (18%) and alcohol combined with hepatitis C (12%). Autoimmune hepatitis cirrhosis showed the best 10-year survival (53%) and hepatitis C, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis and other causes averaged 30%. Decompensation at diagnosis was an important predictor for death in all etiologies apart from alcoholic cirrhosis. 991 patients died and 91 were transplanted. CONCLUSION: Our results show that the clinical course and survival in cirrhosis differ considerably by both etiology and state at diagnosis.

Patients with liver cirrhosis show worse survival if decompensation occurs later during course of disease than at diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: Liver cirrhosis is characterized by a silent phase until decompensation, which is defined by onset of ascites, variceal bleeding, or encephalopathy. Although it is presumed that the survival of decompensated patients is the same regardless of when decompensation occurs, data to support this are scarce. We aimed to study the impact of time of decompensation on the clinical course and survival of patients with cirrhosis in a large population-based cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used medical registries to define a 10-year cohort of 1317 patients with incident liver cirrhosis in the Scania region of Sweden. Medical records were reviewed. Patients were followed until December 2011, and for death or transplantation until December 2014. RESULTS: In the cohort, 629 patients were decompensated at diagnosis, of which 505 had ascites and 44 variceal bleeding only. During follow-up, 228 patients developed ascites and 39 variceal bleeding as first complication. Patients with ascites as first complication showed worse survival than patients who had ascites at diagnosis. (5-year survival 33% vs. 15%, HR 1.60 (95% CI 1.34-1.90)). This difference persisted after adjustment for confounders, including hepatocellular cancer (HR 1.38 (95% CI 1.15-1.67)). Worse survival was also seen when bleeding from varices occurred during follow-up rather than at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide evidence for an association between transplantation-free survival after decompensation and the time of decompensation in liver cirrhosis, with worse survival when decompensation occurs during follow-up, thus challenging the generally held, view that the survival after decompensation is independent of when decompensation occurs.

Detection of glaucoma progression by perimetry and optic disc photography at different stages of the disease: results from the Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial.

PURPOSE: To compare the earliest detection of progression in visual fields and monoscopic optic disc photographs at different stages of manifest glaucoma. METHODS: This study evaluated 306 eyes in 249 patients with manifest open-angle glaucoma included in the Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial (EMGT). All patients in the trial were followed up regularly by standard automated perimetry and monoscopic optic disc photography, and the median follow-up time was 8 years. Progression was assessed in series of optic disc photographs and in series of visual fields using glaucoma change probability maps and the predefined EMGT progression criterion. The proportion of progressions detected first in visual fields and the proportion detected first in optic disc photographs were compared at different stages of glaucoma severity defined by the perimetric mean deviation (MD) of the baseline visual field. RESULTS: Assessment of 210 eyes with early visual field loss, 83 eyes with moderate field loss, and 13 eyes with advanced field loss showed that, among the eyes exhibiting progression, the progression was detected first in the visual field in 80%, 79% and 100%, respectively. The predominance of visual field progressions at all stages was still apparent when using narrower (3-dB) MD intervals for staging. CONCLUSION: In the EMGT material on eyes with manifest open-angle glaucoma, the initial progression was detected much more often in the visual field series than in the optic disc photographs at all stages of disease.

Effect of Tailored Dose-Dense Chemotherapy vs Standard 3-Weekly Adjuvant Chemotherapy on Recurrence-Free Survival Among Women With High-Risk Early Breast Cancer: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Standard dosing of chemotherapy based on body surface area results in marked interpatient variation in pharmacokinetics, toxic effects, and efficacy. Whether tailored dosing can improve outcomes is unknown, as is the role of dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy. Objective: To determine whether tailored dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy improves the outcomes of early breast cancer compared with a standard 3-weekly chemotherapy schedule. Design, Setting, and Participants: A randomized, open-label, phase 3 trial of women aged 65 years and younger who had surgery for nonmetastatic node-positive or high-risk node-negative breast cancer at 86 sites in Sweden, Germany, and Austria between February 20, 2007, and September 14, 2011. Interventions: Patients were randomized 1:1 either to 4 cycles of leukocyte nadir-based tailored and dose-dense adjuvant epirubicin and cyclophosphamide every 2 weeks followed by 4 cycles of tailored dose-dense docetaxel every 2 weeks, or to standard-interval chemotherapy with 3 cycles of fluorouracil and epirubicin-cyclophosphamide every 3 weeks followed by 3 cycles of docetaxel every 3 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was breast cancer recurrence-free survival (BCRFS). Secondary end points included 5-year event-free survival (EFS), distant disease-free survival (DDFS), overall survival (OS), and rates of grade 3 or 4 toxic effects. Results: Among 2017 randomized patients (1006 in the tailored dose-dense group and 1011 in the control group; median [IQR] age, 51 [45-58] years; 80% with hormone receptor-positive tumors; 97% with node-positive disease), 2000 received study treatment (≥1 cycle of chemotherapy; 1001 in the tailored dose-dense group and 999 in the control group). After a median follow-up of 5.3 years (IQR, 4.5-6.1 years), 269 BCRFS events were reported, 118 in the tailored dose-dense group and 151 in the control group (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.61-1.01; log-rank P = .06; 5-year BCRFS, 88.7% vs 85.0%). The tailored dose-dense group had significantly better EFS than the control group (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63-0.99; P = .04; 5-year EFS, 86.7% vs 82.1%). The groups did not differ in OS (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.57-1.05; P = .09; 5-year OS, 92.1% vs 90.2%) or DDFS (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.64-1.08; P = .17; 5-year DDFS, 89.4% vs 86.7%). Grade 3 or 4 nonhematologic toxic effects occurred in 527 (52.6%) in the tailored dose-dense group and 366 (36.6%) in the control group. Conclusions and Relevance: Among women with high-risk early breast cancer, the use of tailored dose-dense chemotherapy compared with standard adjuvant chemotherapy did not result in a statistically significant improvement in breast cancer recurrence-free survival. Nonhematologic toxic effects were more frequent in the tailored dose-dense group. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00798070; isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN39017665.

Thyroid Cancer after Childhood Exposure to External Radiation: An Updated Pooled Analysis of 12 Studies.

Studies have causally linked external thyroid radiation exposure in childhood with thyroid cancer. In 1995, investigators conducted relative risk analyses of pooled data from seven epidemiologic studies. Doses were mostly <10 Gy, although childhood cancer therapies can result in thyroid doses >50 Gy. We pooled data from 12 studies of thyroid cancer patients who were exposed to radiation in childhood (ages <20 years), more than doubling the data, including 1,070 (927 exposed) thyroid cancers and 5.3 million (3.4 million exposed) person-years. Relative risks increased supralinearly through 2-4 Gy, leveled off between 10-30 Gy and declined thereafter, remaining significantly elevated above 50 Gy. There was a significant relative risk trend for doses <0.10 Gy (P < 0.01), with no departure from linearity (P = 0.36). We observed radiogenic effects for both papillary and nonpapillary tumors. Estimates of excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) were homogeneous by sex (P = 0.35) and number of radiation treatments (P = 0.84) and increased with decreasing age at the time of exposure. The ERR/Gy estimate was significant within ten years of radiation exposure, 2.76 (95% CI, 0.94-4.98), based on 42 exposed cases, and remained elevated 50 years and more after exposure. Finally, exposure to chemotherapy was significantly associated with thyroid cancer, with results supporting a nonsynergistic (additive) association with radiation.

Role of natural killer cell subsets and natural cytotoxicity receptors for the outcome of immunotherapy in acute myeloid leukemia.

In a phase IV trial, 84 patients (age 18-79) with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR) received cycles of immunotherapy with histamine dihydrochloride (HDC) and low-dose human recombinant interleukin 2 (IL-2) for 18 months to prevent leukemic relapse. During cycles, the treatment resulted in expansion of CD56(bright) (CD3(-)/16(-)/56(bright)) and CD16(+) (CD3(-)/16(+)/56(+)) natural killer (NK) cells in the blood along with increased NK cell expression of the natural cytotoxicity receptors (NCRs) NKp30 and NKp46. Multivariate analyses correcting for age and risk group demonstrated that high CD56(bright) NK cell counts and high expression of NKp30 or NKp46 on CD16(+) NK cells independently predicted leukemia-free survival (LFS) and overall survival (OS). Our results suggest that the dynamics of NK cell subsets and their NCR expression may determine the efficiency of relapse-preventive immunotherapy in AML.

Structural and Functional Progression in the Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial.

PURPOSE: To elucidate the temporal relationship between detection of glaucomatous optic disc progression, as assessed by fundus photography, and visual field progression. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, longitudinal trial. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred six study eyes with manifest glaucoma with field loss and 192 fellow eyes without any field defect at the start of the trial, from a total of 249 subjects included in the Early Manifest Glaucoma Trial (EMGT), were assessed. METHODS: Evaluation of visual field progression and optic disc progression during an 8-year follow-up period. Three graders independently assessed optic disc progression in optic disc photographs. Visual field progression was assessed using glaucoma change probability maps and the EMGT progression criterion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to detection of visual field progression and optic disc progression. RESULTS: Among study eyes with manifest glaucoma, progression was detected in the visual field first in 163 eyes (52%) and in the optic disc first in 39 eyes (12%); in 1 eye (0%), it was found simultaneously with both methods. Among fellow eyes with normal fields, progression was detected in the visual field first in 28 eyes (15%) and in the optic disc first in 34 eyes (18%); in 1 eye (1%), it occurred simultaneously. CONCLUSIONS: In eyes with manifest glaucoma, progression in the visual field was detected first more than 4 times as often as progression in the optic disc. Among fellow eyes without visual field loss at baseline, progression was detected first as frequently in the optic disc as in the visual field.

Dynamics of cytotoxic T cell subsets during immunotherapy predicts outcome in acute myeloid leukemia.

Preventing relapse after chemotherapy remains a challenge in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Eighty-four non-transplanted AML patients in first complete remission received relapse-preventive immunotherapy with histamine dihydrochloride and low-dose interleukin-2 in an international phase IV trial (ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT01347996). Blood samples were drawn during cycles of immunotherapy and analyzed for CD8+ (cytotoxic) T cell phenotypes in blood. During the first cycle of therapy, a re-distribution of cytotoxic T cells was observed comprising a reduction of T effector memory cells and a concomitant increase of T effector cells. The dynamics of T cell subtypes during immunotherapy prognosticated relapse and survival, in particular among older patients and remained significantly predictive of clinical outcome after correction for potential confounders. Presence of CD8+ T cells with specificity for leukemia-associated antigens identified patients with low relapse risk. Our results point to novel aspects of T cell-mediated immunosurveillance in AML and provide conceivable biomarkers in relapse-preventive immunotherapy.

The Adult Life After Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia (ALiCCS) Study: Design and Characteristics.

BACKGROUND: During the last five decades, survival of childhood cancer has increased from 25% to 80%. At the same time, however, it has become evident that survivors experience a broad range of therapy-related late adverse health effects. The aim of the Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia (ALiCCS) study is to investigate long-term health consequences of past and current therapies in order to improve follow-up care of survivors and to reduce treatment-related morbidity of future patients. PROCEDURE: Childhood cancer survivors were identified through the five Nordic cancer registries and a comparison cohort was established through random selection of cancer-free individuals from the civil registration systems. A unique personal identification number was used to link between different health registries. Abstraction of treatment information for a subset of survivors allows investigation of the association between the various components of cancer therapy and late occurring comorbidity. RESULTS: The childhood cancer survivor cohort comprises 33,160 1-year survivors and the comparison cohort comprises 212,892 cancer free individuals from the general population. In the childhood cancer survivor cohort, all types of childhood cancer are represented including leukemia (21%), lymphoma (14%), central nervous system tumors (24%), sarcomas (5%), retinoblastoma (3%), and neuroblastoma (4%). Among the survivors, 22% have been followed beyond the age of 40 years. CONCLUSION: The ALiCCS study constitutes a new large resource for research on late effects of childhood cancers that include all types of childhood malignancies and has followed a large proportion of the survivors well into late adulthood.

Cardiovascular disease in Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia: A population-based cohort study of 32,308 one-year survivors.

The lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease in a large cohort of childhood cancer survivors has not been fully assessed. In a retrospective population-based cohort study predicated on comprehensive national health registers, we identified a cohort of 32,308 one-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before the age of 20 in the five Nordic countries between the start of cancer registration in the 1940s and 1950s to 2008; 211,489 population comparison subjects were selected from national population registers. Study subjects were linked to national hospital registers, and the observed numbers of first hospital admission for cardiovascular disease among survivors were compared with the expected numbers derived from the population comparison cohort. Cardiovascular disease was diagnosed in 2,632 childhood cancer survivors (8.1%), yielding a standardized hospitalization rate ratio (RR) of 2.1 (95% CI 2.0-2.2) and an overall absolute excess risk (AER) of 324 per 100,000 person-years. At the end of follow-up 12% of the survivors were ≥ 50 years of age and 4.5% ≥ 60 years of age. Risk estimates were significantly increased throughout life, with an AER of ∼500-600 per 100,000 person-years at age ≥ 40. The highest relative risks were seen for heart failure (RR, 5.2; 95% CI 4.5-5.9), valvular dysfunction (4.6; 3.8-5.5) and cerebrovascular diseases (3.7; 3.4-4.1). Survivors of hepatic tumor, Hodgkin lymphoma and leukemia had the highest overall risks for cardiovascular disease, although each main type of childhood cancer had increased risk with different risk profiles. Nordic childhood cancer survivors are at markedly increased risk for cardiovascular disorders throughout life. These findings indicate the need for preventive interventions and continuous follow-up for this rapidly growing population.

Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ: 20 years follow-up in the randomized SweDCIS Trial.

PURPOSE: Four randomized studies show that adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) lowers the risk of subsequent ipsilateral breast events (IBEs) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) by approximately 50% after 10 to 15 years. We present 20 years of follow-up data for the SweDCIS trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 1987 and 1999 1,046 women were randomly assigned to RT or not after BCS for primary DCIS. Results up to 2005 have been published, and we now add another 7 years of follow-up. All breast cancer events and causes of death were registered. RESULTS: There were 129 in situ and 129 invasive IBEs. Absolute risk reduction in the RT arm was 12.0% at 20 years (95% CI, 6.5 to 17.7), with a relative risk reduction of 37.5%. Absolute reduction was 10.0% (95% CI, 6.0 to 14.0) for in situ and 2.0% (95% CI, -3.0 to 7.0) for invasive IBEs. There was a nonstatistically significantly increased number of contralateral events in the RT arm (67 v 48 events; hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.95 to 2.00). Breast cancer-specific death and overall survival were not influenced. Younger women experienced a relatively higher risk of invasive IBE and lower effect of RT. The hazard over time looked different for in situ and invasive IBEs. CONCLUSION: Use of adjuvant RT is supported by 20-year follow-up. Modest protection against invasive recurrences and a possible increase in contralateral cancers still call for a need to find groups of patients for whom RT could be avoided or mastectomy with breast reconstruction is indicated.

Increased cardio and cerebrovascular mortality in breast cancer patients treated with postmastectomy radiotherapy--25 year follow-up of a randomised trial from the South Sweden Breast Cancer Group.

AIM OF THE STUDY: To analyse late morbidity and mortality in pre and post-menopausal breast cancer patients treated with postmastectomy radiotherapy, with emphasis on side-effects from the heart, cerebrovascular and respiratory systems. METHODS: Long term follow-up of two randomised, clinical trials with 1100 patients was carried out. Pre-menopausal women were allocated to radiotherapy (RT), RT+oral cyclophosphamide (RT+C) or cyclophosphamide only (C). Post-menopausal women were allocated to RT, RT+Tamoxifen for one year (RT+Tam) or tamoxifen only (Tam). Information on admission to hospital, mortality and causes of death was obtained from national registers. RESULTS: After 25 years, adding RT to cyclophosphamide in pre-menopausal women raised the mortality from heart disease from zero to 0.8% (p=0.04). In post-menopausal women, adding RT to Tam raised the mortality from heart disease from 10.5% to 18.4% (p=0.005). In post-menopausal women mortality due to cerebrovascular disease increased from 3.4% to 8.7% by adding RT to Tam (p=0.015). The differences were not evident until in the second decade of follow-up. In spite of differences in specific causes of death, there were no significant differences between the treatment arms concerning morbidity or overall mortality. CONCLUSION: Postmastectomy radiotherapy to the chest wall and loco-regional lymph nodes including the parasternal lymph nodes as delivered in the end of the seventies did not reduce overall mortality, but gave a significantly increased risk of death from heart and cerebrovascular disease, which appeared during the second decade after radiotherapy.

Hospital contacts for endocrine disorders in Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia (ALiCCS): a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The pattern of endocrine disorders in long-term survivors of childhood cancer has not been investigated comprehensively. Here, we aimed to assess the lifetime risk of these disorders in Nordic survivors of childhood cancer. METHODS: From the national cancer registries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, we identified 31,723 1-year survivors of childhood cancer, notified since the start of registration in the 1940s and 1950s. From the national population registries, we randomly selected a comparison cohort of people matched by age, sex, and country. Study participants were linked to the national hospital registries, and observed numbers of first-time hospital contacts for endocrine disorders in survivors of childhood cancer were compared with the expected numbers derived from the population comparison cohort. We calculated the absolute excess risks attributable to status as a childhood cancer survivor and standardised hospitalisation rate ratios (SHRRs). FINDINGS: Of the childhood cancer survivors, 3292 had contact with a hospital for an endocrine disorder, yielding a SHRR of 4·8 (95% CI 4·6-5·0); the highest risks were in survivors of leukaemia (SHRR 7·3 [95% CI 6·7-7·9]), CNS tumours (6·6 [6·2-7·0]), and Hodgkin's lymphoma (6·2 [5·6-7·0]). The absolute excess risk for endocrine disorders was roughly 1000 per 100,000 person-years before 20 years of age, and 400 per 100,000 person-years during the remaining lifetime. For children with cancer diagnosed at 5-9 years of age, the cumulative risk for endocrine disorders was highest, and reached 43% at the age of 60 years. Diagnoses of pituitary hypofunction (SHRR 88·0), hypothyroidism (9·9), and testicular and ovarian dysfunction (42·5 and 4·7, respectively) together constituted 61% (655 of 1078) of all excess disease-induced and treatment-induced endocrine disorders in survivors of childhood cancer. INTERPRETATION: A cumulative risk for endocrine disorders at 60 years of age of above 40% in survivors of childhood cancer emphasises the importance of minimisation of damaging treatment, intensification of secondary prevention, and targeting of survivor follow-up throughout life. Since most long-term childhood cancer survivors are not followed in a specialised late-effect clinic, they are a growing challenge for the primary care physician and medical specialists working outside the late-effect area. FUNDING: The Danish Council for Strategic Research.

Adult life after childhood cancer in Scandinavia: diabetes mellitus following treatment for cancer in childhood.

AIM: An increased risk for diabetes mellitus (DM) adds significantly to the burden of late complications in childhood cancer survivors. Complications of DM may be prevented by using appropriate screening. It is, therefore, important to better characterise the reported increased risk for DM in a large population-based setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From the national cancer registries of the five Nordic countries, a cohort of 32,903 1-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before the age of 20 between start of cancer registration in the 1940s and 1950s through 2008 was identified; 212,393 comparison subjects of the same age, gender and country were selected from national population registers. Study subjects were linked to the national hospital registers. Absolute excess risks (AERs) and standardised hospitalisation rate ratios (SHRRs) were calculated. RESULTS: DM was diagnosed in 496 childhood cancer survivors, yielding an overall SHRR of 1.6 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.5-1.8) and an AER of 43 per 100,000 person-years, increasing from approximately 20 extra cases of DM in ages 0-19 to more than 100 extra cases per 100,000 person-years in ages > or =50. The relative risks for DM were significantly increased after Wilms' tumour (SHRR, 2.9), leukaemia (2.0), CNS neoplasms (1.8), germ-cell neoplasms (1.7), malignant bone tumours (1.7) and Hodgkin's lymphoma (1.6). The risk for DM type 2 was slightly higher than that for type 1. CONCLUSION: Childhood cancer survivors are at increased risk for DM, with absolute risks increasing throughout life. These findings underscore the need for preventive interventions and prolonged follow-up of childhood cancer survivors.

Late divergence of survival curves in cancer immunotherapy trials: interpretation and implications.

Late divergence of survival curves of treated patients and controls is commonly seen in successful cancer immunotherapy trials. Although late survival curve divergence may be caused by a delayed action of therapy, it may also be related to early effects of the treatment. We suggest that late survival divergence most often reflects a specific benefit of therapy for patients who suffer from a comparatively slow progression of disease. The occurrence of delayed survival curve divergence has important implications for the statistical analysis of immunotherapy trials. Thus, it leads to non-proportional hazard ratios that make commonly used statistical tests, e.g., the logrank test, suboptimal. It is therefore suggested that the statistical analysis of immunotherapy trials primarily should be based on a test that compares the survival curves at or after a prespecified, fixed, late time point.

Long term (13 years) prognosis after primary intracerebral haemorrhage: a prospective population based study of long term mortality, prognostic factors and causes of death.

INTRODUCTION: Many studies have focused on short term mortality after primary intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) whereas long term prognosis and causes of death have been less studied. We therefore examined these issues in a population based cohort of 1 year ICH survivors. METHODS: ICH patients in a defined Swedish population (1.14 million inhabitants) were prospectively registered during 1996. Patients surviving 1 year after ICH onset were followed-up regarding survival status and cause of death until December 2009 using data from the National Census Office and the National Cause of Death Register. Patient prognosis was also compared with the general population using official Swedish mortality data. Clinical and radiological prognostic factors were evaluated. RESULTS: Of 323 patients with ICH, 172 (53%) survived after 1 year, 127 (39%) after 5 years and 57 (18%) after 13 years. Mortality of the 172, 1 year survivors (mean age 67.7 years at ICH) persistently exceeded expected mortality; 13 years post ictus survival was only 34% compared with 61% in the general population. Of 115 deaths among the 172, 1 year survivors, 36% were from cerebrovascular disease and 19% from ischaemic heart disease. Independent risk factors for death among 1 year survivors were age (HR 1.08 per year; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.10; p<0.001), diabetes mellitus at baseline (HR 2.10; 95% CI 1.18 to 3.74; p=0.012) and anticoagulant therapy (HR 1.99; 95% CI 1.12 to 3.53; p=0.018) at ICH onset. CONCLUSIONS: One year survivors after ICH had a substantial and persisting excess mortality compared with the general population. Major causes of death were stroke and ischaemic heart disease.

Absolute risk prediction of second primary thyroid cancer among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer.

PURPOSE: We developed three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer to assist with long-term clinical monitoring of childhood cancer survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and two nested case-control studies (Nordic CCSS; Late Effects Study Group). Model M1 included self-reported risk factors, model M2 added basic radiation and chemotherapy treatment information abstracted from medical records, and model M3 refined M2 by incorporating reconstructed radiation absorbed dose to the thyroid. All models were validated in an independent cohort of French childhood cancer survivors. RESULTS: M1 included birth year, initial cancer type, age at diagnosis, sex, and past thyroid nodule diagnosis. M2 added radiation (yes/no), radiation to the neck (yes/no), and alkylating agent (yes/no). Past thyroid nodule was consistently the strongest risk factor (M1 relative risk [RR], 10.8; M2 RR, 6.8; M3 RR, 8.2). In the validation cohort, 20-year absolute risk predictions for second primary thyroid cancer ranged from 0.04% to 7.4% for M2. Expected events agreed well with observed events for each model, indicating good calibration. All models had good discriminatory ability (M1 area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.71; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.77; M2 AUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.86; M3 AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.82). CONCLUSION: We developed and validated three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer. Model M2, with basic prior treatment information, could be useful for monitoring thyroid cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors.