Antibody-mediated autoimmunity in symptom-based disorders: position statement and proceedings from an international workshop.

A 2-day closed workshop was held in Liverpool, United Kingdom, to discuss the results of research concerning symptom-based disorders (SBDs) caused by autoantibodies, share technical knowledge, and consider future plans. Twenty-two speakers and 14 additional participants attended. This workshop set out to consolidate knowledge about the contribution of autoantibodies to SBDs. Persuasive evidence for a causative role of autoantibodies in disease often derives from experimental "passive transfer" approaches, as first established in neurological research. Here, serum immunoglobulin (IgM or IgG) is purified from donated blood and transferred to rodents, either systemically or intrathecally. Rodents are then assessed for the expression of phenotypes resembling the human condition; successful phenotype transfer is considered supportive of or proof for autoimmune pathology. Workshop participants discussed passive transfer models and wider evidence for autoantibody contribution to a range of SBDs. Clinical trials testing autoantibody reduction were presented. Cornerstones of both experimental approaches and clinical trial parameters in this field were distilled and presented in this article. Mounting evidence suggests that immunoglobulin transfer from patient donors often induces the respective SBD phenotype in rodents. Understanding antibody binding epitopes and downstream mechanisms will require substantial research efforts, but treatments to reduce antibody titres can already now be evaluated.

Withdrawing versus Withholding Treatments in Medical Reimbursement Decisions: A Study on Public Attitudes.

BACKGROUND: The use of policies in medical treatment reimbursement decisions, in which only future patients are affected, prompts a moral dilemma: is there an ethical difference between withdrawing and withholding treatment? DESIGN: Through a preregistered behavioral experiment involving 1,067 participants, we tested variations in public attitudes concerning withdrawing and withholding treatments at both the bedside and policy levels. RESULTS: In line with our first hypothesis, participants were more supportive of rationing decisions presented as withholding treatments compared with withdrawing treatments. Contrary to our second prestated hypothesis, participants were more supportive of decisions to withdraw treatment made at the bedside level compared with similar decisions made at the policy level. IMPLICATIONS: Our findings provide behavioral insights that help explain the common use of policies affecting only future patients in medical reimbursement decisions, despite normative concerns of such policies. In addition, our results may have implications for communication strategies when making decisions regarding treatment reimbursement. HIGHLIGHTS: We explore public' attitudes toward withdrawing and withholding treatments and how the decision level (bedside or policy level) matters.People were more supportive of withholding medical treatment than of withdrawing equivalent treatment.People were more supportive of treatment withdrawal made at the bedside than at the policy level.Our findings help clarify why common-use policies, which impact only future patients in medical reimbursement decision, are implemented despite the normative concerns associted with thesepolicies.

Plutonium oxide melt structure and covalency.

Advances in nuclear power reactors include the use of mixed oxide fuel, containing uranium and plutonium oxides. The high-temperature behaviour and structure of PuO2-x above 1,800 K remain largely unexplored, and these conditions must be considered for reactor design and planning for the mitigation of severe accidents. Here, we measure the atomic structure of PuO2-x through the melting transition up to 3,000 ± 50 K using X-ray scattering of aerodynamically levitated and laser-beam-heated samples, with O/Pu ranging from 1.57 to 1.76. Liquid structural models consistent with the X-ray data are developed using machine-learned interatomic potentials and density functional theory. Molten PuO1.76 contains some degree of covalent Pu-O bonding, signalled by the degeneracy of Pu 5f and O 2p orbitals. The liquid is isomorphous with molten CeO1.75, demonstrating the latter as a non-radioactive, non-toxic, structural surrogate when differences in the oxidation potentials of Pu and Ce are accounted for. These characterizations provide essential constraints for modelling pertinent to reactor safety design.

Topical Oxaliplatin Produces Gain- and Loss-of-Function in Multiple Classes of Sensory Afferents.

The platinum chemotherapeutic oxaliplatin produces dose-limiting pain, dysesthesia, and cold hypersensitivity in most patients immediately after infusion. An improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying these symptoms is urgently required to facilitate the development of symptomatic or preventative therapies. In this study, we have used skin-saphenous nerve recordings in vitro and behavioral experiments in mice to characterize the direct effects of oxaliplatin on different types of sensory afferent fibers. Our results confirmed that mice injected with oxaliplatin rapidly develop mechanical and cold hypersensitivities. We further noted profound changes to A fiber activity after the application of oxaliplatin to the receptive fields in the skin. Most oxaliplatin-treated Aδ- and rapidly adapting Aß-units lost mechanical sensitivity, but units that retained responsiveness additionally displayed a novel, aberrant cold sensitivity. Slowly adapting Aß-units did not display mechanical tachyphylaxis, and a subset of these fibers was sensitized to mechanical and cold stimulation after oxaliplatin treatment. C fiber afferents were less affected by acute applications of oxaliplatin, but a subset gained cold sensitivity. Taken together, our findings suggest that direct effects on peripheral A fibers play a dominant role in the development of acute oxaliplatin-induced cold hypersensitivity, numbness, and dysesthesia. PERSPECTIVE: The chemotherapeutic drug oxaliplatin rapidly gives rise to dose-limiting cold pain and dysesthesia. Here, we have used behavioral and electrophysiological studies of mice to characterize the responsible neurons. We show that oxaliplatin directly confers aberrant cold responsiveness to subsets of A-fibers while silencing other fibers of the same type.

Cross-cultural adaption and inter-rater reliability of the Swedish version of the updated clinical frailty scale 2.0.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, there is a large and growing group of older adults. Frailty is known as an important discriminatory factor for poor outcomes. The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) has become a frequently used frailty instrument in different clinical settings and health care sectors, and it has shown good predictive validity. The aims of this study were to describe and validate the translation and cultural adaptation of the CFS into Swedish (CFS-SWE), and to test the inter-rater reliability (IRR) for registered nurses using the CFS-SWE. METHODS: An observational study design was employed. The ISPOR principles were used for the translation, linguistic validation and cultural adaptation of the scale. To test the IRR, 12 participants were asked to rate 10 clinical case vignettes using the CFS-SWE. The IRR was assessed using intraclass correlation and Krippendorff's alpha agreement coefficient test. RESULTS: The Clinical Frailty Scale was translated and culturally adapted into Swedish and is presented in its final form. The IRR for all raters, measured by an intraclass correlation test, resulted in an absolute agreement value among the raters of 0.969 (95% CI: 0.929-0.991) and a consistency value of 0.979 (95% CI: 0.953-0.994), which indicates excellent reliability. Krippendorff's alpha agreement coefficient for all raters was 0.969 (95% CI: 0.917-0.988), indicating near-perfect agreement. The sensitivity of the reliability was examined by separately testing the IRR of the group of specialised registered nurses and non-specialised registered nurses respectively, with consistent and similar results. CONCLUSION: The Clinical Frailty Scale was translated, linguistically validated and culturally adapted into Swedish following a well-established standard technique. The IRR was excellent, judged by two established, separately used, reliability tests. The reliability test results did not differ between non-specialised and specialised registered nurses. However, the use of case vignettes might reduce the generalisability of the reliability findings to real-life settings. The CFS has the potential to be a common reference tool, especially when older adults are treated and rehabilitated in different care sectors.

In Situ High-Temperature Raman Spectroscopy of UCl3: A Combined Experimental and Theoretical Study.

Uranium trichloride (UCl3) has received growing interest for its use in uranium-fueled molten salt reactors and in the pyrochemical processing of used fuel. In this paper, we report for the first time the experimentally determined Raman spectra of UCl3, at both ambient condition and in situ high temperatures up to 871 K. The frequencies of five of the Raman-active vibrational modes (vi) of UCl3 exhibit a negative temperature derivative ((∂νi/∂T)P) with increasing temperature. This red-shift behavior is likely due to the elongation of U-Cl bonds. The average isobaric mode Grüneisen parameter (γiP = 0.91 ± 0.02) of UCl3 was determined through use of the coefficient of thermal expansion published in Vogel et al. (2021) and the (∂νi/∂T)P values determined in this study. These results are in general agreement with those calculated here by density functional theory (DFT+U). Finally, a comparison of the ambient band positions of UCl3 to those of isostructural lanthanide (La-Eu) and actinide chlorides (Am-Cf) has been made.

Adaptable control policies for variable liquid chromatography columns using deep reinforcement learning.

Controlling chromatography systems for downstream processing of biotherapeutics is challenging because of the highly nonlinear behavior of feed components and complex interactions with binding phases. This challenge is exacerbated by the highly variable binding properties of the chromatography columns. Furthermore, the inability to collect information inside chromatography columns makes real-time control even more problematic. Typical static control policies either perform sub optimally on average owing to column variability or need to be adapted for each column requiring expensive experimentation. Exploiting the recent advances in simulation-based data generation and deep reinforcement learning, we present an adaptable control policy that is learned in a data-driven manner. Our controller learns a control policy by directly manipulating the inlet and outlet flow rates to optimize a reward function that specifies the desired outcome. Training our controller on columns with high variability enables us to create a single policy that adapts to multiple variable columns. Moreover, we show that our learned policy achieves higher productivity, albeit with a somewhat lower purity, than a human-designed benchmark policy. Our study shows that deep reinforcement learning offers a promising route to develop adaptable control policies for more efficient liquid chromatography processing.

AL4GAP: Active learning workflow for generating DFT-SCAN accurate machine-learning potentials for combinatorial molten salt mixtures.

Machine learning interatomic potentials have emerged as a powerful tool for bypassing the spatiotemporal limitations of ab initio simulations, but major challenges remain in their efficient parameterization. We present AL4GAP, an ensemble active learning software workflow for generating multicomposition Gaussian approximation potentials (GAP) for arbitrary molten salt mixtures. The workflow capabilities include: (1) setting up user-defined combinatorial chemical spaces of charge neutral mixtures of arbitrary molten mixtures spanning 11 cations (Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs, Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba and two heavy species, Nd, and Th) and 4 anions (F, Cl, Br, and I), (2) configurational sampling using low-cost empirical parameterizations, (3) active learning for down-selecting configurational samples for single point density functional theory calculations at the level of Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (SCAN) exchange-correlation functional, and (4) Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning of two-body and many-body GAP models. We apply the AL4GAP workflow to showcase high throughput generation of five independent GAP models for multicomposition binary-mixture melts, each of increasing complexity with respect to charge valency and electronic structure, namely: LiCl-KCl, NaCl-CaCl2, KCl-NdCl3, CaCl2-NdCl3, and KCl-ThCl4. Our results indicate that GAP models can accurately predict structure for diverse molten salt mixture with density functional theory (DFT)-SCAN accuracy, capturing the intermediate range ordering characteristic of the multivalent cationic melts.

Pain-causing stinging nettle toxins target TMEM233 to modulate NaV1.7 function.

Voltage-gated sodium (NaV) channels are critical regulators of neuronal excitability and are targeted by many toxins that directly interact with the pore-forming α subunit, typically via extracellular loops of the voltage-sensing domains, or residues forming part of the pore domain. Excelsatoxin A (ExTxA), a pain-causing knottin peptide from the Australian stinging tree Dendrocnide excelsa, is the first reported plant-derived NaV channel modulating peptide toxin. Here we show that TMEM233, a member of the dispanin family of transmembrane proteins expressed in sensory neurons, is essential for pharmacological activity of ExTxA at NaV channels, and that co-expression of TMEM233 modulates the gating properties of NaV1.7. These findings identify TMEM233 as a previously unknown NaV1.7-interacting protein, position TMEM233 and the dispanins as accessory proteins that are indispensable for toxin-mediated effects on NaV channel gating, and provide important insights into the function of NaV channels in sensory neurons.

Ustekinumab Is Associated with Real-World Long-Term Effectiveness and Improved Health-Related Quality of Life in Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Prospectively and systematically collected long-term real-world clinical data on ustekinumab (anti-interleukin-12/23) are still scarce. AIMS: To assess the long-term effectiveness of ustekinumab in patients with active Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: This is a prospective multicenter study of adult patients with CD initiating ustekinumab according to recommended doses at 20 Swedish hospitals. The primary outcome was clinical remission (Harvey-Bradshaw Index (HBI) ≤ 4 points) at weeks 52 and 104. Secondary outcomes included clinical response (≥ 3-point-decrease in HBI among patients with initial HBI ≥ 5 points), treatment retention, and biomarkers (C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin, fecal-calprotectin) at weeks 52 and 104 compared to baseline. We also reported Health-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) measures. RESULTS: Of 114 included patients, 107 (94%) had previously failed ≥ 1 and 58 (51%) ≥ 2 anti-tumor necrosis factor agents. Forty (35%) had failed anti-integrin agents. Ustekinumab retention rates at weeks 52 and 104 were 70% (n = 80/114) and 61% (n = 69/114), respectively. Clinical response was seen in 36% (n = 25/69) and 29% (n = 20/69) of the patients, and remission was achieved in 32% (n = 31/96) and 29% (n = 28/96) at weeks 52 and 104, respectively. Median HBI and CRP levels decreased significantly at both timepoints as compared to baseline. Significant improvements were also observed in HRQoL. Adverse events were reported in 11% (n = 13/114) of the patients, including five cases of severe adverse events. No malignancies were observed. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide prospective real-world 104-week-follow-up study of adult patients with active CD, ustekinumab was associated with long-term clinical effectiveness and improvement in HRQoL measures when used in routine clinical care.

The biology of symptom-based disorders - time to act.

Symptom-based disorders are conditions that are characterised mostly by somatic symptoms rather than objectively identifiable signs. They are very common, including pain and fatigue disorders, functional gastrointestinal and respiratory disorders, and others, and they cause far greater disability than diseases where signs are prominent. Such conditions may sometimes be triggered by infection, as in Post Covid Syndrome (Cabral-Marques et al., 2022; Baiocchi et al., 2022) or physical or psychological trauma. By employing passive immunoglobulin transfer experimental approaches, recent research in several 'unexplained' chronic pain conditions has demonstrated that pathogenic IgG autoantibodies can explain several of these conditions' core symptoms and are ubiquitous in patients with severe phenotypes. The promise from placing positive resources into exploring the role of 'invisible', functional, non-inflammatory autoantibodies in symptom-based disorders across additional areas of Medicine includes patient empowerment and the development of new diagnostic tests and therapies.

Research priorities to reduce the impact of musculoskeletal disorders: a priority setting exercise with the child health and nutrition research initiative method.

Involving research users in setting priorities for research is essential to ensure the outcomes are patient-centred and maximise its value and impact. The Musculoskeletal Disorders Research Advisory Group Versus Arthritis led a research priority setting exercise across musculoskeletal disorders. The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method of setting research priorities with a range of stakeholders was used, involving four stages and two surveys, to: (1) gather research uncertainties, (2) consolidate these, (3) score uncertainties against importance and impact, and (4) analyse scoring for prioritisation. 213 people responded to the first survey and 285 people to the second, representing clinicians, researchers, and people with musculoskeletal disorders. Key priorities included developing and testing new treatments, better treatment targeting, early diagnosis, prevention, and better understanding and management of pain, with an emphasis on understanding underpinning mechanisms. We present a call to action to researchers and funders to target these priorities.

Aftersensations and Lingering Pain After Examination in Patients with Fibromyalgia Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a chronic widespread pain condition with mixed peripheral and central contributions. Patients display hypersensitivities to a spectrum of stimuli. Patients' blunt pressure pain thresholds are typically reduced, and sometimes (∼15%) gentle brushstroke induces allodynia. However, aftersensations after these stimuli have not, to our knowledge, been reported. METHODS: We examined the perception of blunt pressure and "pleasant touch" in FMS. Patients were first interviewed and completed standard psychometric questionnaires. We then measured their sensitivity to blunt pressure and perception of pleasant touch, including aftersensations; patients were followed up for 5 days to evaluate lingering pain from blunt pressure. RESULTS: We recruited 51 patients with FMS and 16 pain-free healthy controls (HCs) at a UK Pain Management Centre. Forty-four patients completed the aftersensation protocol. Most patients reported pain after the application of less mechanical pressure than the level of pressure at which HCs reported pain; median arm and leg thresholds for the patients with FMS were 167 kPa and 233 kPa, respectively. Eighty-four percent (31/37) of patients reported ongoing pain at the site of pressure application 1 day after testing, and 49% (18/37) still perceived pain at 5 days. Aftersensations after brushstroke were common in the FMS group, reported by 77% (34/44) of patients with FMS vs 25% (4/16) of HCs; 34% (15/44) of patients, but no HCs, perceived these aftersensations as uncomfortable. For patients with FMS who experienced aftersensations, brushstroke pleasantness ratings were reduced, and the skin was often an important site of pain. CONCLUSION: Pain after blunt pressure assessment typically lingers for several days. Aftersensations after brushstroke stimulation are a previously unreported FMS phenomenon. They are associated with tactile anhedonia and might identify a clinically distinct subgroup.

Sulfated Progesterone Metabolites That Enhance Insulin Secretion via TRPM3 Are Reduced in Serum From Women With Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

Serum progesterone sulfates were evaluated in the etiology of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Serum progesterone sulfates were measured using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in four patient cohorts: 1) the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes study; 2) London-based women of mixed ancestry and 3) U.K.-based women of European ancestry with or without GDM; and 4) 11-13 weeks pregnant women with BMI ≤25 or BMI ≥35 kg/m2 with subsequent uncomplicated pregnancies or GDM. Glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) was evaluated in response to progesterone sulfates in mouse islets and human islets. Calcium fluorescence was measured in HEK293 cells expressing transient receptor potential cation channel subfamily M member 3 (TRPM3). Computer modeling using Molecular Operating Environment generated three-dimensional structures of TRPM3. Epiallopregnanolone sulfate (PM5S) concentrations were reduced in GDM (P < 0.05), in women with higher fasting plasma glucose (P < 0.010), and in early pregnancy samples from women who subsequently developed GDM with BMI ≥35 kg/m2 (P < 0.05). In islets, 50 µmol/L PM5S increased GSIS by at least twofold (P < 0.001); isosakuranetin (TRPM3 inhibitor) abolished this effect. PM5S increased calcium influx in TRPM3-expressing HEK293 cells. Computer modeling and docking showed identical positioning of PM5S to the natural ligand in TRPM3. PM5S increases GSIS and is reduced in GDM serum. The activation of GSIS by PM5S is mediated by TRPM3 in both mouse and human islets.

Research Recommendations Following the Discovery of Pain Sensitizing IgG Autoantibodies in Fibromyalgia Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is the most common chronic widespread pain condition in rheumatology. Until recently, no clear pathophysiological mechanism for fibromyalgia had been established, resulting in management challenges. Recent research has indicated that serum immunoglobulin Gs (IgGs) may play a role in FMS. We undertook a research prioritisation exercise to identify the most pertinent research approaches that may lead to clinically implementable outputs. METHODS: Research priority setting was conducted in five phases: situation analysis; design; expert group consultation; interim recommendations; consultation and revision. A dialogue model was used, and an international multi-stakeholder expert group was invited. Clinical, patient, industry, funder, and scientific expertise was represented throughout. Recommendation-consensus was determined via a voluntary closed eSurvey. Reporting guideline for priority setting of health research were employed to support implementation and maximise impact. RESULTS: Arising from the expert group consultation (n = 29 participants), 39 interim recommendations were defined. A response rate of 81.5% was achieved in the consensus survey. Six recommendations were identified as high priority- and 15 as medium level priority. The recommendations range from aspects of fibromyalgia features that should be considered in future autoantibody research, to specific immunological investigations, suggestions for trial design in FMS, and therapeutic interventions that should be assessed in trials. CONCLUSIONS: By applying the principles of strategic priority setting we directed research towards that which is implementable, thereby expediating the benefit to the FMS patient population. These recommendations are intended for patients, international professionals and grant-giving bodies concerned with research into causes and management of patients with fibromyalgia syndrome.

The autoimmune aetiology of unexplained chronic pain.

Chronic pain is the leading cause of life years lived with disability worldwide. The aetiology of most chronic pain conditions has remained poorly understood and there is a dearth of effective therapies. The WHO ICD-11 has categorised unexplained chronic pain states as 'chronic primary pains' (CPP), which are further defined by their association with significant distress and/or dysfunction. The new mechanistic term, 'nociplasticic pain' has been developed to illustrate their presumed generation by a structurally intact, but abnormally functioning nociceptive system. Recently, researchers have unravelled the surprising, ubiquitous presence of pain-sensitising autoantibodies in four investigated CPP indicating autoimmune causation. In persistent complex regional pain syndrome, fibromyalgia syndrome, chronic post-traumatic limb pain, and non-inflammatory joint pain associated with rheumatoid arthritis, passive transfer experiments have shown that either IgG or IgM antibodies from patient-donors cause symptoms upon injection to rodents that closely resemble those of the clinical disorders. Targets of antibody-binding and downstream effects vary between conditions, and more research is needed to elucidate the molecular and cellular details. The central nervous system appears largely unaffected by antibody binding, suggesting that the clinically evident CNS symptoms associated with CPP might arise downstream of peripheral processes. In this narrative review pertinent findings are described, and it is suggested that additional symptom-based disorders might be examined for the contribution of antibody-mediated autoimmune mechanisms.

Snapshot multicolor fluorescence imaging using double multiplexing of excitation and emission on a single detector.

Fluorescence-based multispectral imaging of rapidly moving or dynamic samples requires both fast two-dimensional data acquisition as well as sufficient spectral sensitivity for species separation. As the number of fluorophores in the experiment increases, meeting both these requirements becomes technically challenging. Although several solutions for fast imaging of multiple fluorophores exist, they all have one main restriction; they rely solely on spectrally resolving either the excitation- or the emission characteristics of the fluorophores. This inability directly limits how many fluorophores existing methods can simultaneously distinguish. Here we present a snapshot multispectral imaging approach that not only senses the excitation and emission characteristics of the probed fluorophores but also all cross term combinations of excitation and emission. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the only snapshot multispectral imaging method that has this ability, allowing us to even sense and differentiate between light of equal wavelengths emitted from the same fluorescing species but where the signal components stem from different excitation sources. The current implementation of the technique allows us to simultaneously gather 24 different spectral images on a single detector, from which we demonstrate the ability to visualize and distinguish up to nine fluorophores within the visible wavelength range.

Passive transfer of fibromyalgia symptoms from patients to mice.

Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is characterized by widespread pain and tenderness, and patients typically experience fatigue and emotional distress. The etiology and pathophysiology of fibromyalgia are not fully explained and there are no effective drug treatments. Here we show that IgG from FMS patients produced sensory hypersensitivity by sensitizing nociceptive neurons. Mice treated with IgG from FMS patients displayed increased sensitivity to noxious mechanical and cold stimulation, and nociceptive fibers in skin-nerve preparations from mice treated with FMS IgG displayed an increased responsiveness to cold and mechanical stimulation. These mice also displayed reduced locomotor activity, reduced paw grip strength, and a loss of intraepidermal innervation. In contrast, transfer of IgG-depleted serum from FMS patients or IgG from healthy control subjects had no effect. Patient IgG did not activate naive sensory neurons directly. IgG from FMS patients labeled satellite glial cells and neurons in vivo and in vitro, as well as myelinated fiber tracts and a small number of macrophages and endothelial cells in mouse dorsal root ganglia (DRG), but no cells in the spinal cord. Furthermore, FMS IgG bound to human DRG. Our results demonstrate that IgG from FMS patients produces painful sensory hypersensitivities by sensitizing peripheral nociceptive afferents and suggest that therapies reducing patient IgG titers may be effective for fibromyalgia.

A preregistered replication of motivated numeracy.

Motivated numeracy refers to the idea that people with high reasoning capacity will use that capacity selectively to process information in a manner that protects their own valued beliefs. This concept was introduced in a now classic article by Kahan, Peters, Dawson, & Slovic [2017, Behavioral Public Policy 1, 54-86], who used numeracy to index reasoning capacity, and demonstrated that the tendency to engage in ideologically congruent interpretation of facts increased substantially with people's numeracy. Despite the importance of this finding, both from a theoretical and practical point of view, there is yet no consensus in the literature about the factual strength of motivated numeracy. We therefore conducted a large-scale replication of Kahan, Peters, Dawson, and Slovic (2017), using a pre-specified analysis plan with strict evaluation criteria. We did not find good evidence for motivated numeracy; there are distinct patterns in our data at odds with the core predictions of the theory, most notably (i) there is ideologically congruent responding that is not moderated by numeracy, and (ii) when there is moderation, ideologically congruent responding occurs only at the highest levels of numeracy. Our findings suggest that the cumulative evidence for motivated numeracy is weaker than previously thought, and that caution is warranted when this feature of human cognition is leveraged to improve science communication on contested topics such as climate change or immigration.

Dynamics of collective action to conserve a large common-pool resource.

A pressing challenge for coming decades is sustainable and just management of large-scale common-pool resources including the atmosphere, biodiversity and public services. This poses a difficult collective action problem because such resources may not show signs that usage restraint is needed until tragedy is almost inevitable. To solve this problem, a sufficient level of cooperation with a pro-conservation behavioural norm must be achieved, within the prevailing sociopolitical environment, in time for the action taken to be effective. Here we investigate the transient dynamics of behavioural change in an agent-based model on structured networks that are also exposed to a global external influence. We find that polarisation emerges naturally, even without bounded confidence, but that for rationally motivated agents, it is temporary. The speed of convergence to a final consensus is controlled by the rate at which the polarised clusters are dissolved. This depends strongly on the combination of external influences and the network topology. Both high connectivity and a favourable environment are needed to rapidly obtain final consensus.