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Objective: To explore the population health impact of treating all US adults eligible for the Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with Icosapent Ethyl-Intervention Trial (REDUCE-IT) with icosapent ethyl (IPE), we estimated (1) the number of ASCVD events and healthcare costs that could be prevented; and (2) medication costs. Methods: We derived REDUCE-IT eligible cohorts in (1) the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2009-2014 and (2) the Optum Research Database (ORD). Population sizes were obtained from NHANES and observed first event rates (composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, unstable angina requiring hospitalization, or coronary revascularization) were estimated from the ORD. Hazard ratios from REDUCE-IT USA estimated events prevented with IPE therapy. The National Inpatient Sample estimated event costs (facility and professional) and daily IPE treatment cost was approximated at $4.59. Results: We estimate 3.6 million US adults to be REDUCE-IT eligible, and the observed five-year first event rate without IPE of 19.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.6%-19.5%) could be lowered to 13.1% (95% CI 12.8%-13.5%) with five years of IPE treatment, preventing 212,000 (uncertainty range 163,000-262,000) events. We projected the annual IPE treatment cost for all eligible persons to be $6.0 billion (95% CI $4.7-$7.5 billion), but saving $1.8 billion annually due to first events prevented (net annual cost $4.3 billion). The total five-year event rate (first and recurrent) could be reduced from 42.5% (95% CI 39.6%-45.4%) to 28.9% (95% CI 26.9-30.9%) with five years of IPE therapy, preventing 490,000 (uncertainty range 370,000-609,000) events (net annual cost $2.6 billion). Conclusions: Treating all REDUCE-IT eligible US adults has substantial medication costs but could prevent a substantial number of ASCVD events and associated direct costs. Indirect cost savings by preventing events could outweigh much of the incurred direct costs.
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BACKGROUND: Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs) are an acute surgical condition with high morbidity and mortality. Timely identification, resuscitation, and aggressive surgical management have significantly decreased inpatient mortality. However, reduced inpatient mortality has shifted the burden of disease to long-term mortality associated with persistent organ dysfunction. METHODS: We performed a combined analysis of NSTI patients from the AB103 Clinical Composite Endpoint Study in Necrotizing Soft Tissue Infections randomized-controlled interventional trial (ATB-202) and comprehensive administrative database (ATB-204) to determine the association of persistent organ dysfunction on inpatient and long-term outcomes. Persistent organ dysfunction was defined as a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (mSOFA) score of 2 or greater at Day 14 (D14) after NSTI diagnosis, and resolution of organ dysfunction defined as mSOFA score of 1 or less. RESULTS: The analysis included 506 hospitalized NSTI patients requiring surgical debridement, including 247 from ATB-202, and 259 from ATB-204. In both study cohorts, age and comorbidity burden were higher in the D14 mSOFA ≥2 group. Patients with D14 mSOFA score of 1 or less had significantly lower 90-day mortality than those with mSOFA score of 2 or higher in both ATB-202 (2.4% vs. 21.5%; p < 0.001) and ATB-204 (6% vs. 16%: p = 0.008) studies. In addition, in an adjusted covariate analysis of the combined study data sets D14 mSOFA score of 1 or lesss was an independent predictor of lower 90-day mortality (odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.53; p = 0.001). In both studies, D14 mSOFA score of 1 or less was associated with more favorable discharge status and decreased resource utilization. CONCLUSION: For patients with NSTI undergoing surgical management, persistent organ dysfunction at 14 days, strongly predicts higher resource utilization, poor discharge disposition, and higher long-term mortality. Promoting the resolution of acute organ dysfunction after NSTI should be considered as a target for investigational therapies to improve long-term outcomes after NSTI. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic/epidemiology study, level III.
