Evaluation of early single dose vaccination on swine influenza A virus transmission in piglets: From experimental data to mechanistic modelling.

Swine influenza A virus (swIAV) is a major pathogen affecting pigs with a huge economic impact and potentially zoonotic. Epidemiological studies in endemically infected farms permitted to identify critical factors favoring on-farm persistence, among which maternally-derived antibodies (MDAs). Vaccination is commonly practiced in breeding herds and might be used for immunization of growing pigs at weaning. Althoughinterference between MDAs and vaccination was reported in young piglets, its impact on swIAV transmission was not yet quantified. To this aim, this study reports on a transmission experiment in piglets with or without MDAs, vaccinated with a single dose injection at four weeks of age, and challenged 17 days post-vaccination. To transpose small-scale experiments to real-life situation, estimated parameters were used in a simulation tool to assess their influence at the herd level. Based on a thorough follow-up of the infection chain during the experiment, the transmission of the swIAV challenge strain was highly dependent on the MDA status of the pigs when vaccinated. MDA-positive vaccinated animals showed a direct transmission rate 3.6-fold higher than the one obtained in vaccinated animals without MDAs, estimated to 1.2. Vaccination nevertheless reduced significantly the contribution of airborne transmission when compared with previous estimates obtained in unvaccinated animals. The integration of parameter estimates in a large-scale simulation model, representing a typical farrow-to-finish pig herd, evidenced an extended persistence of viral spread when vaccination of sows and single dose vaccination of piglets was hypothesized. When extinction was quasi-systematic at year 5 post-introduction in the absence of sow vaccination but with single dose early vaccination of piglets, the extinction probability fell down to 33% when batch-to-batch vaccination was implemented both in breeding herd and weaned piglets. These results shed light on a potential adverse effect of single dose vaccination in MDA-positive piglets, which might lead to longer persistence of the SwIAV at the herd level.

Unravelling direct and indirect contact patterns between duck farms in France and their association with the 2016-2017 epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N8).

Live animal movements generate direct contacts (via the exchange of live animals) and indirect contacts (via the transit of transport vehicles) between farms, which can contribute to the spread of pathogens. However, most analyses focus solely on direct contacts and can therefore underestimate the contribution of live animal movements in the spread of infectious diseases. Here, we used French live duck movement data (2016-2018) from one of the largest transport companies to compare direct and indirect contact patterns between duck farms and evaluate how these patterns were associated with the French 2016-2017 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8. A total number of 614 farms were included in the study, and two directed networks were generated: the animal introduction network (exchange of live ducks) and the transit network (transit of transport vehicles). Following descriptive analyses, these two networks were scrutinized in relation to farm infection status during the epidemic. Results showed that farms were substantially more connected in the transit network than in the animal introduction network and that the transit of transport vehicles generated more opportunities for transmission than the exchange of live animals. We also showed that animal introduction and transit networks' statistics decreased substantially during the epidemic (January-March 2017) compared to non-epidemic periods (January-March 2016 and January-March 2018). We estimated a probability of 33.3 % that a farm exposed to the infection through either of the two live duck movement networks (i.e. that was in direct or indirect contact with a farm that was reported as infected in the following seven days) becomes infected within seven days after the contact. However, we also demonstrated that the level of exposure of farms by these two contact patterns was low, leading only to a handful of transmission events through these routes. As a consequence, we showed that live animal movement patterns are efficient transmission routes for HPAI but have been efficiently reduced to limit the spread during the French 2020-2021 epidemic. These results underpin the relevance of studying indirect contacts resulting from the movement of animals to understand their transmission potential and the importance of accounting for both routes when designing disease control strategies.

Modelling infectious viral diseases in swine populations: a state of the art.

Mathematical modelling is nowadays a pivotal tool for infectious diseases studies, completing regular biological investigations. The rapid growth of computer technology allowed for development of computational tools to address biological issues that could not be unravelled in the past. The global understanding of viral disease dynamics requires to account for all interactions at all levels, from within-host to between-herd, to have all the keys for development of control measures. A literature review was performed to disentangle modelling frameworks according to their major objectives and methodologies. One hundred and seventeen articles published between 1994 and 2020 were found to meet our inclusion criteria, which were defined to target papers representative of studies dealing with models of viral infection dynamics in pigs. A first descriptive analysis, using bibliometric indexes, permitted to identify keywords strongly related to the study scopes. Modelling studies were focused on particular infectious agents, with a shared objective: to better understand the viral dynamics for appropriate control measure adaptation. In a second step, selected papers were analysed to disentangle the modelling structures according to the objectives of the studies. The system representation was highly dependent on the nature of the pathogens. Enzootic viruses, such as swine influenza or porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, were generally investigated at the herd scale to analyse the impact of husbandry practices and prophylactic measures on infection dynamics. Epizootic agents (classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease or African swine fever viruses) were mostly studied using spatio-temporal simulation tools, to investigate the efficiency of surveillance and control protocols, which are predetermined for regulated diseases. A huge effort was made on model parameterization through the development of specific studies and methodologies insuring the robustness of parameter values to feed simulation tools. Integrative modelling frameworks, from within-host to spatio-temporal models, is clearly on the way. This would allow to capture the complexity of individual biological variabilities and to assess their consequences on the whole system at the population level. This would offer the opportunity to test and evaluate in silico the efficiency of possible control measures targeting specific epidemiological units, from hosts to herds, either individually or through their contact networks. Such decision support tools represent a strength for stakeholders to help mitigating infectious diseases dynamics and limiting economic consequences.

How mechanistic modelling supports decision making for the control of enzootic infectious diseases.

Controlling enzootic diseases, which generate a large cumulative burden and are often unregulated, is needed for sustainable farming, competitive agri-food chains, and veterinary public health. We discuss the benefits and challenges of mechanistic epidemiological modelling for livestock enzootics, with particular emphasis on the need for interdisciplinary approaches. We focus on issues arising when modelling pathogen spread at various scales (from farm to the region) to better assess disease control and propose targeted options. We discuss in particular the inclusion of farmers' strategic decision-making, the integration of within-host scale to refine intervention targeting, and the need to ground models on data.

A commercial PCV2a-based vaccine significantly reduces PCV2b transmission in experimental conditions.

Transmission characteristics of PCV2 have been compared between vaccinated and non-vaccinated pigs in experimental conditions. Twenty-four Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) piglets, vaccinated against PCV2 at 3weeks of age (PCV2a recombinant CAP protein-based vaccine), were inoculated at 15days post-vaccination with a PCV2b inoculum (6⋅10(5) TCID50), and put in contact with 24 vaccinated SPF piglets during 42days post-inoculation. Those piglets were shared in six replicates of a contact trial involving 4 inoculated piglets mingled with 4 susceptible SPF piglets. Two replicates of a similar contact trial were made with non-vaccinated pigs. Non vaccinated animals received a placebo at vaccination time and were inoculated the same way and at the same time as the vaccinated group. All the animals were monitored twice weekly using quantitative real-time PCR and ELISA for serology until 42days post-inoculation. The frequency of infection and the PCV2 genome load in sera of the vaccinated pigs were significantly reduced compared to the non-vaccinated animals. The duration of infectiousness was significantly different between vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups (16.6days [14.7;18.4] and 26.6days [22.9;30.4] respectively). The transmission rate was also considerably decreased in vaccinated pigs (ß=0.09 [0.05-0.14] compared to ß=0.19 [0.11-0.32] in non-vaccinated pigs). This led to an estimated reproduction ratio of 1.5 [95% CI 0.8 - 2.2] in vaccinated animals versus 5.1 [95% CI 2.5 - 8.2] in non-vaccinated pigs when merging data of this experiment with previous trials carried out in same conditions.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) modified-live vaccine reduces virus transmission in experimental conditions.

Some vaccination strategies have shown good results in reducing the clinical outcomes of PRRS. Nevertheless the effect of vaccines on viral transmission is poorly described, so we aimed to fill this gap with the present study. Twelve Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) piglets, vaccinated against PRRSv at 3 weeks of age (Porcilis PRRS ID(®), MSD), were inoculated at 31 days post-vaccination with a heterologous genogroup 1.1 strain, and put in contact with 12 vaccinated piglets during 49 days. The same protocol was carried out simultaneously with SPF non-vaccinated piglets. Piglets were monitored individually for clinical symptoms on a daily basis and individual blood samples were taken twice a week. In inoculated piglets, the genome viral load specific to the inoculated strain was reduced and viraemia shortened in vaccinated piglets (28 days versus 38 days in non vaccinated piglets). In contact pigs, the challenge strain was detected in the serum of only one vaccinated piglet whereas it was detected in all contact non-vaccinated piglets. Transmission parameters were estimated by a Bayesian analysis of transmission data in the two groups. The estimated transmission rate was 10-times lower in vaccinated than in non-vaccinated piglets and the duration of infectiousness was reduced, leading to a reproduction ratio R significantly lower (0.30 [0.05-0.96] versus 5.42 [2.94-9.04] in non vaccinated piglets). Hence, in our experimental conditions, vaccination was able to decrease considerably PRRSv spread. A complementary evaluation in field conditions would be required to identify circumstances associated with infection control failures that can be observed in pig farms.

Using digital electronic design flow to create a Genetic Design Automation tool.

Synthetic bio-systems become increasingly more complex and their development is lengthy and expensive. In the same way, in microelectronics, the design process of very complex circuits has benefited from many years of experience. It is now partly automated through Electronic Design Automation tools. Both areas present analogies that can be used to create a Genetic Design Automation tool inspired from EDA tools used in digital electronics. This tool would allow moving away from a totally manual design of bio-systems to assisted conception. This ambitious project is presented in this paper, with a deep focus on the tool that automatically generates models of bio-systems directly usable in electronic simulators.

Pharmacodynamic modeling of in vitro activity of marbofloxacin against Escherichia coli strains.

A mathematical pharmacodynamic model was developed to describe the bactericidal activity of marbofloxacin against Escherichia coli strains with reduced susceptibility levels (determined using MICs) under optimal and intestinal growth conditions. Model parameters were estimated using nonlinear least-square curve-fitting procedures for each E. coli strain. Parameters related to bactericidal activity were subsequently analyzed using a maximum-effect (E(max)) model adapted to account for a direct and a delayed effect. While net growth rates did not vary significantly with strain susceptibility, culture medium had a major effect. The bactericidal activity of marbofloxacin was closely associated with the concentration and the duration of exposure of the bacteria to the antimicrobial agent. The value of the concentration inducing a half-maximum effect (C(50)) was highly correlated with MIC values (R(2) = 0.87 and R(2) = 0.94 under intestinal and optimal conditions, respectively). Our model reproduced the time-kill kinetics with good accuracy (R(2) of >0.90) and helped explain observed regrowth.

Influence of husbandry and control measures on porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV-2) dynamics within a farrow-to-finish pig farm: a modelling approach.

We assessed, using a modelling approach, the influence of several management practices within a farrow-to-finish farm on the age of PCV-2 infection. The impact of PCV-2 vaccination with different vaccination schemes on infection dynamics, was also tested. A stochastic individual-based model describing the population dynamics in a typical French farrow-to-finish pig farm was built and coupled with an epidemiological model of PCV-2 infection. The parameters of the infectious model were mainly obtained from previous transmission experiments. Results were subjected to a survival analysis of time-to-infection. For each comparison, the reference situation was no vaccination followed by random mixing of piglets after birth and after weaning. The risk of early infection was significantly reduced when mixing of piglets was reduced at different stages (avoiding cross-fostering and grouping piglets by litters in small pens after weaning, hazard ratio (HR)=0.52 [0.46; 0.59]). Sow-targeted vaccination delayed the infectious process until the waning of passive immunity and piglet-targeted vaccination considerably decreased the force of infection leading to a dramatic decrease of the total number of infections (HR=0.44 [0.37; 0.54]). The effect was even more pronounced when strict management measures were applied (HR=0.24 [0.19; 0.31]). Changing from a low (3%) prevalence of PCV-2-infected semen to a higher one (18%) significantly increased the risk of early infections (HR=1.36 [1.2; 1.53]), whereas reducing replacement rate or changing sow housing from individual crates to group housing had a limited impact on PCV-2 dynamics.

Modelling the time-dependent transmission rate for porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in pigs using data from serial transmission experiments.

Six successive transmission trials were carried out from 4 to 39 days post inoculation (DPI) to determine the features of the infectious period for PCV2-infected pigs. The infectiousness of inoculated pigs, assessed from the frequency of occurrence of infected pigs in susceptible groups in each contact trial, increased from 4 to 18 DPI (0, 7 and 8 infected pigs at 4, 11 and 18 DPI, respectively) and then decreased slowly until 39 days post infection (4, 2 and 1 pigs infected at 25, 32 and 39 DPI, respectively). The estimated time-dependent infectiousness was fitted to three unimodal function shapes (gamma, Weibull and lognormal) for comparison. The absence of infected pigs at 4 DPI revealed a latency period between 4 and 10 DPI. A sensitivity analysis was performed to test whether the parametric shape of the transmission function influenced the estimations. The estimated time-dependent transmission rate was implemented in a deterministic SEIR model and validated by comparing the model prediction with external data. The lognormal-like function shape evidenced the best quality of fit, leading to a latency period of 8 days, an estimated basic reproduction ratio of 5.9 [1.8,10.1] and a mean disease generation time of 18.4 days [18.2, 18.5].