Violent assault geographies in northeastern Australia.

As climate change produces more extreme weather, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of these changes on social behaviour. The relationship between weather and crime has been studied across numerous contexts. However, few studies examine the correlation between weather and violence in southern, non-temperate climates. In addition, the literature lacks longitudinal research that controls for international changes in crime trends. In this study, we examine over 12 years of assault-related incidents in the state of Queensland, Australia. Controlling for deviations in trend for temperature and rainfall, we explore the relationship between violent crime and weather across Köppen climate classifications. Findings provide important insight into the impact of weather on violence across temperate, tropical, and arid climate regions.

In a world called catastrophe: the impact of COVID-19 on neighbourhood level crime in Vancouver, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: To test for statistically significant change in crime rates across neighbourhoods in Vancouver, Canada, resulting from social restrictions within the natural experiment of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Differential local Moran's I is used to identify statistically significant change in crime patterns across Vancouver's neighbourhoods because of COVID-19. These changes are analysed with variables from social disorganization theory constructs using ANOVA. RESULTS: At the neighbourhood level, all crime types have significant change during COVID, but not always at the city level. Different neighbourhoods have different changes in crime despite these changes appearing to be constant at the city level; local effects asre important to consider. Variables representing the constructs of social disorganization theory are able to predict these changes. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 has changed the patterns of crime in Vancouver, but most often in theoretically expected ways. Local changes are critical to understand crime during a pandemic.

Somehow I always end up alone: COVID-19, social isolation and crime in Queensland, Australia.

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically affected social life. In efforts to reduce the spread of the virus, countries around the world implemented social restrictions, including social distancing, working from home, and the shuttering of numerous businesses. These social restrictions have also affected crime rates. In this study, we investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of offending (crimes include property, violent, mischief, and miscellaneous) in Queensland, Australia. In particular, we examine this impact across numerous settings, including rural, regional and urban. We measure these shifts across the restriction period, as well as the staged relaxation of these restrictions. In order to measure impact of this period we use structural break tests. In general, we find that criminal offences have significantly decreased during the initial lockdown, but as expected, increased once social restrictions were relaxed. These findings were consistent across Queensland's districts, save for two areas. We discuss how these findings are important for criminal justice and social service practitioners when operating within an extraordinary event.

Show me a man or a woman alone and I'll show you a saint: Changes in the frequency of criminal incidents during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of various crime types (property, violent, and mischief) in Vancouver, Canada. METHODS: Crime data representing residential burglary, commercial burglary, theft of vehicle, theft from vehicle, theft, violence, and mischief are analysed at the city level using interrupted time series techniques. RESULTS: While COVID-19 has not had an impact on all crime types, statistically significant change has been identified in a number of cases. Depending on the crime type, the magnitude and direction of the change in frequency varies. It is argued that (mandated) social restrictions, shifted activity patterns and opportunity structures which are responsible for these findings. CONCLUSIONS: We find support for changes in the frequency of particular crime types during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is important for criminal justice and social service practitioners when operating within an extraordinary event.

The Temporal (In)Stability of the Unemployment and Crime Relationship.

The complex relationship between crime and economic change has had a long pedigree in criminological research. This article considers the temporal stability of the Cantor and Land model of unemployment and crime using a decomposition model of Canadian provinces, 1981 to 2009. We include multiple economic measures for a more comprehensive representation of economic performance, allowing for the estimates of long- and short-run unemployment effects to vary over time. We undertake this analysis considering 12 crime types, finding strong support for the Cantor and Land model in both property and violent crimes. However, in a number of cases, we find that there is significant variation of these relationships over time. This result implies that support for this model depends on the time period analyzed and that any policy derived from this model of unemployment and crime is time-period dependent.

Identifying the appropriate spatial resolution for the analysis of crime patterns.

BACKGROUND: A key issue in the analysis of many spatial processes is the choice of an appropriate scale for the analysis. Smaller geographical units are generally preferable for the study of human phenomena because they are less likely to cause heterogeneous groups to be conflated. However, it can be harder to obtain data for small units and small-number problems can frustrate quantitative analysis. This research presents a new approach that can be used to estimate the most appropriate scale at which to aggregate point data to areas. DATA AND METHODS: The proposed method works by creating a number of regular grids with iteratively smaller cell sizes (increasing grid resolution) and estimating the similarity between two realisations of the point pattern at each resolution. The method is applied first to simulated point patterns and then to real publicly available crime data from the city of Vancouver, Canada. The crime types tested are residential burglary, commercial burglary, theft from vehicle and theft of bike. FINDINGS: The results provide evidence for the size of spatial unit that is the most appropriate for the different types of crime studied. Importantly, the results are dependent on both the number of events in the data and the degree of spatial clustering, so a single 'appropriate' scale is not identified. The method is nevertheless useful as a means of better estimating what spatial scale might be appropriate for a particular piece of analysis.

The Spatial Effect of Police Foot Patrol on Crime Patterns: A Local Analysis.

A foot patrol program was implemented in Lower Lonsdale, British Columbia, in the summer of 2010 and continues today. As a part of assessing the foot patrol's effect on crime in the neighbourhood, the spatial similarity was examined by comparing the crime pattern before the foot patrol initiative (2007-2009) with the crime pattern during the foot patrol program (2010-2012). Considering these baseline and treatment data sets and a spatial point pattern test, the spatial similarity between two data sets is analyzed. In general, the continued presence of foot patrol appears to have created a concentration of crime in specific areas, rather than a diffusion effect. The areas that continued to experience increased crime during foot patrol presence were often in the catchment area, suggesting displacement does occur, or along the border between the catchment and primary patrol area.

Factors Related to Rape Reporting Behavior in Brazil: Examining the Role of Spatio-Temporal Factors.

The reporting of rape to police is an important component of this crime to have the criminal justice system involved and, potentially, punish offenders. However, for a number of reasons (fear of retribution, self-blame, etc.), most rapes are not reported to police. Most often, the research investigating this phenomenon considers incident and victim factors with little attention to the spatio-temporal factors of the rape. In this study, we consider incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors relating to rape reporting in Campinas, Brazil. Our primary research question is whether or not the spatio-temporal factors play a significant role in the reporting of rape, over and above incident and victim factors. The subjects under study are women who were admitted to the Women's Integrated Healthcare Center at the State University of Campinas, Brazil, and surveyed by a psychologist or a social worker. Rape reporting to police was measured using a dichotomous variable. Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of rape reporting based on incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors. Although we find that incident and victim factors matter for rape reporting, spatio-temporal factors (rape/home location and whether the rape was in a private or public place) play an important role in rape reporting, similar to the literature that considers these factors. This result has significant implications for sexual violence education. Only when we know why women decide not to report a rape may we begin to work on strategies to overcome these hurdles.

Homicide in Canada and the crime drop.

In contrast to the Canadian crime drop of the 1990s, homicide appeared as an anomaly with a peak in the 1970s. Yet previous studies tend to refer only to completed homicides, and here we also include attempts. The resulting trend is remarkably similar to that in Canadian property crime for five decades. This seems unlikely to be a coincidence and we speculate about a causal link.

Spatial/Temporal Variations of Crime: A Routine Activity Theory Perspective.

Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevance of routine activity theory in a Latin American context. We use geo-referenced criminal event data, 2010-2013, analyzing spatial patterns using census tracts and temporal patterns considering seasons, months, days, and hours. Our analyses include difference in means tests, count-based regression models, and Kulldorff's scan test. We find that crime in Campinas, Brazil, exhibits both temporal and spatial-temporal patterns. However, the presence of these patterns at the different temporal scales varies by crime type. Specifically, not all crime types have statistically significant temporal patterns at all scales of analysis. As such, routine activity theory works well to explain temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil. However, local knowledge of Brazilian culture is necessary for understanding a portion of these crime patterns.

Using tweets to understand changes in the spatial crime distribution for hockey events in Vancouver.

The use of social media data for the spatial analysis of crime patterns during social events has proven to be instructive. This study analyzes the geography of crime considering hockey game days, criminal behaviour, and Twitter activity. Specifically, we consider the relationship between geolocated crime-related Twitter activity and crime. We analyze six property crime types that are aggregated to the dissemination area base unit in Vancouver, for two hockey seasons through a game and non-game temporal resolution. Using the same method, geolocated Twitter messages and environmental variables are aggregated to dissemination areas. We employ spatial clustering, dictionary-based mining for tweets, spatial autocorrelation, and global and local regression models (spatial lag and geographically weighted regression). Findings show an important influence of Twitter data for theft-from-vehicle and mischief, mostly on hockey game days. Relationships from the geographically weighted regression models indicate that tweets are a valuable independent variable that can be used in explaining and understanding crime patterns.

L'utilisation des données des médias sociaux pour l'analyse spatiale des tendances de la criminalité durant des activités sociales s'est avérée très instructive. Cette étude analyse la géographie de la criminalité compte tenu des journées où il y a une partie de hockey, le comportement criminel et l'activité sur Twitter. Plus précisément, nous examinons les relations entre la criminalité et l'activité sur Twitter reliée à la criminalité géolocalisée. Nous analysons six types de crimes contre les biens qui sont agrégés par aire de diffusion à Vancouver pour deux saisons de hockey au moyen d'une résolution temporelle avec et sans partie. Utilisant la même méthode, les messages géolocalisés sur Twitter et les variables environnementales sont agrégés aux aires de diffusion. Nous utilisons le regroupement spatial, l'extraction basée sur le dictionnaire pour les gazouillis, l'autocorrélation spatiale ainsi que les modèles locaux et globaux de régression (décalage spatial et régression pondérée géographiquement). Les conclusions indiquent une influence importante des données de Twitter pour les méfaits et les vols dans les véhicules, principalement lors des journées où il y a une partie de hockey. Les relations des modèles de régression pondérée géographiquement indiquent que les gazouillis sont une variable indépendante utile qui peut être utilisée pour expliquer et comprendre les tendances de la criminalité.

Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates.

This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative binomial (Ottawa, Ontario) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables affect certain crime types, thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.

Social Disorganization and Homicide in Recife, Brazil.

In this article, we investigate the determinants of homicide in Recife, Brazil, considering social disorganization theory. Using georeferenced homicide data, 2009-2013, and census data, we analyze homicide in Recife using a spatial regression technique that controls for spatial autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity at the census tract level. Overall, we find that homicide in Recife, Brazil, is characterized by social disorganization theory. Specifically, positive relationships are found for inequality, rented houses, and quantity of people, but negative relationships are found for income, literacy, percentage of married people, water supply, public illumination, the percentage of women responsible for the house, and population density. Overall, we find that social disorganization theory provides an instructive framework for understanding homicide in Recife, Brazil. However, there are specific contexts to Brazil that are different from North American contexts.

Peer-engagement and its role in reducing the risky behavior among crack and methamphetamine smokers of the Downtown Eastside community of Vancouver, Canada.

BACKGROUND: The role of peers (former or current drug users) in reducing risky behavior within methamphetamine and crack smokers has not been well described or researched. The current study not only explores the role of peers in reducing risk factors for morbidity within the illicit drug smoking population in the Downtown Eastside (DTES) community of Vancouver but it also investigates the changes in the nature of drug use after the closure of an unsanctioned smoking facility. METHODS: The data pertain to qualitative interviews with 10 peers and 10 illicit drug smokers. The semi-structured interviews were conducted through community-based research, and the digital transcripts were analyzed via NVivo 10 software. RESULTS: The results indicate that peers (former and current drug users who are employed as educators) are instrumental in transferring risk reduction knowledge within crack and methamphetamine smokers. For example, these peers have been able to teach users about the risk of sharing pipes, using brillo, and using public drug. Furthermore, the Vancouver Area Network of Drug Users provides employment for crack and methamphetamine users in Vancouver who tend to have scarce sources of employment. However, since the closure of the unsanctioned inhalation facility, there has been significantly more public drug use and pipe sharing in the vicinity of the facility, placing drug smokers at significant risk of arrest, violence, and blood-borne infections. CONCLUSIONS: The current study recommends expanding the harm reduction peer network for people who smoke illicit drugs in the DTES community of Vancouver who have historically been underserved.

The social and economic determinants of suicide in Canadian provinces.

BACKGROUND: In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between suicide and a variety of socioeconomic variables. We use a panel data set of Canadian provinces, 2000 - 2008, and a set of recent panel econometric techniques in order to account for a variety of statistical specification issues. RESULTS: We find that the social and economic determinants of suicide in Canadian provinces vary across total, male, and female counts (natural logarithms) and rates. We also find that the results vary depending on the econometric method employed. As such, separate analyses for males and females is necessary for a better understanding of the factors that impact suicide (consistent with previous research) and that the choice of statistical method impacts the results. Lastly, it is important to note the particular provinces are driving the results for particular socioeconomic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Such a result, if generalizable, has significant implications for suicide prevention policy.

A cost-benefit/cost-effectiveness analysis of proposed supervised injection facilities in Ottawa, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Supervised injection facilities (SIFs) are venues where people who inject drugs (PWID) have access to a clean and medically supervised environment in which they can safely inject their own illicit drugs. There is currently only one legal SIF in North America: Insite in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The responses and feedback generated by the evaluations of Insite in Vancouver have been overwhelmingly positive. This study assesses whether the above mentioned facility in the Downtown Eastside of Vancouver needs to be expanded to other locations, more specifically that of Canada's capital city, Ottawa. METHODS: The current study is aimed at contributing to the existing literature on health policy by conducting cost-benefit and cost-effective analyses for the opening of SIFs in Ottawa, Ontario. In particular, the costs of operating numerous SIFs in Ottawa was compared to the savings incurred; this was done after accounting for the prevention of new HIV and Hepatitis C (HCV) infections. To ensure accuracy, two distinct mathematical models and a sensitivity analysis were employed. RESULTS: The sensitivity analyses conducted with the models reveals the potential for SIFs in Ottawa to be a fiscally responsible harm reduction strategy for the prevention of HCV cases--when considered independently. With a baseline sharing rate of 19%, the cumulative annual cost model supported the establishment of two SIFs and the marginal annual cost model supported the establishment of a single SIF. More often, the prevention of HIV or HCV alone were not sufficient to justify the establishment cost-effectiveness; rather, only when both HIV and HCV are considered does sufficient economic support became apparent. CONCLUSIONS: Funded supervised injection facilities in Ottawa appear to be an efficient and effective use of financial resources in the public health domain.

Suicide and unemployment: a panel analysis of Canadian provinces.

The objective of this study was to investigate the causal relationship between suicide and unemployment. We use panel data from Canadian provinces and use recent panel econometric techniques to account for endogenous structural breaks in both the unit root and cointegration testing procedures in order to account for statistical specification issues. We find that the relationship between unemployment and suicide is context dependent. We do find positive and statistically significant relationships, but only for males in particular provinces. The relationship between unemployment and suicide is not monolithic. Rather, relationships are not always as expected for different demographic groups and all places.

A cost-benefit/cost-effectiveness analysis of proposed supervised injection facilities in Montreal, Canada.

BACKGROUND: This paper will determine whether expanding Insite (North America's first and only supervised injection facility) to more locations in Canada such as Montreal, cost less than the health care consequences of not having such expanded programs for injection drug users. METHODS: By analyzing secondary data gathered in 2012, this paper relies on mathematical models to estimate the number of new HIV and Hepatitis C (HCV) infections prevented as a result of additional SIF locations in Montreal. RESULTS: With very conservative estimates, it is predicted that the addition of each supervised injection facility (up-to a maximum of three) in Montreal will on average prevent 11 cases of HIV and 65 cases of HCV each year. As a result, there is a net cost saving of CDN$0.686 million (HIV) and CDN$0.8 million (HCV) for each additional supervised injection site each year. This translates into a net average benefit-cost ratio of 1.21: 1 for both HIV and HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Funding supervised injection facilities in Montreal appears to be an efficient and effective use of financial resources in the public health domain.

International immigration, internal migration, and homicide in Canadian provinces.

The relationship between immigration and crime is politically charged and often fueled by the presence (or lack) of xenophobia. Many theoretical and empirical assessments of this relationship indicate that immigration does indeed lead to increased crime, but more recent (and very early) research investigating homicide calls this finding into question. The current analysis investigates the relationship between immigration and homicide using multiple measures of migration and Canadian provinces as the unit of analysis. It is found that the link between immigration and homicide is complex and dependent on the measure of migration used. Generally speaking, the results presented here are consistent with the more recent and very early research. Immigration, in and of itself, does not increase homicide. Rather it is the increase in the most criminogenic subpopulation that matters, that is young males.

Unemployment and crime: A neighborhood level panel data approach.

Twenty-five years ago, David Cantor and Kenneth Land presented a model of the relationship between unemployment and crime. This model showed the complexity of this seemingly simple relationship. Namely, there are two independent and counteracting effects from unemployment that affect crime: motivation and guardianship. In their analysis, Cantor and Land found that the guardianship effect dominates the motivation effect, but subsequent research has questioned this result. In this paper, the unemployment and crime relationship is tested using a neighborhood level hybrid modeling approach. Such a method allows for the nuances of Cantor and Land's model to be tested at a fine ecological resolution for the first time. It is found that both motivation and guardianship matter for crime, but at different time frames: motivation matters in the long-run whereas guardianship matters in the short-run, similar to what Cantor and Land hypothesized.