RESUMO
BackgroundFirst Few "X" (FFX) studies provide a platform to collect the required epidemiological, clinical and virological data to help address emerging information needs about the COVID-19 pandemic. MethodsWe adapted the WHO FFX protocol for COVID-19 to understand severity and household transmission dynamics in the early stages of the pandemic in Australia. Implementation strategies were developed for participating sites; all household members provided baseline epidemiological data and were followed for 14 days from case identification. Household contacts completed symptom diaries and had respiratory swabs taken at baseline, day 7 and day 14, and day 28 where applicable. We modelled the spread of COVID-19 within households using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-type model, and calculated the household secondary attack rate and key epidemiological parameters. Findings96 households with 101 cases and 286 household contacts were recruited into the study between April-October 2020. Forty household contacts tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the study follow-up period. Our model estimated the household secondary attack rate to be 15% (95% CI 8-25%), which scaled up with increasing household size. Children were less infectious than their adult counterparts but were also more susceptible to infection. InterpretationOur study provides important baseline data characterising the transmission of early SARS-CoV-2 strains from children and adults in Australia, against which properties of variants of concern can be benchmarked. We encountered many challenges with respect to logistics, ethics, governance and data management that may have led to biases in our study. Continued efforts to invest in preparedness research will help to test, refine and further develop Australian FFX study protocols in advance of future outbreaks. FundingAustralian Government Department of Health Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThe emergence of SARS-CoV-2 was initially characterised by uncertainty over key epidemiological, clinical and virological characteristics of the pathogen. We conducted a prospective household transmission study of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their household contacts to collect data to understand severity and household transmission dynamics in Australia and add to the emerging evidence base for decision making. Large systematic reviews and meta-analyses of severity and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in households have since been published, although estimates vary by setting. Added value of this studyThis is the first multi-jurisdictional prospective household transmission study of its kind for SARS-CoV-2 in Australia. Australia experienced low epidemic activity during the study period in 2020 due to robust public health and social measures including extensive PCR testing of symptomatic persons and isolation of all known contacts of confirmed cases. Hence, we describe the transmission dynamics in our cohort, i.e. in a low incidence setting and provide estimates of the household secondary attack rate, the relative susceptibility of children compared to adults, and transmission from children compared to adults. Implications of all the available evidenceOur findings describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Australian households in 2020, and demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures to limit transmission in this setting. Comparisons to other household transmission studies must be interpreted in light of the local epidemiology and context including study design, and sampling methods. Additional research is needed to incorporate genomic and serological data to further study transmission dynamics in our cohort. Continued development of the FFX study platform in Australia will enable integration into surveillance systems and help inform targetted public health responses to future infectious disease emergencies.
RESUMO
BackgroundThe ability of global health systems to cope with increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases is of major concern. In readiness for this challenge, Australia has drawn on clinical pathway models developed over many years in preparation for influenza pandemics. These models have been used to estimate health care requirements for COVID-19 patients, in the context of broader public health measures. MethodsAn age and risk stratified transmission model of COVID-19 infection was used to simulate an unmitigated epidemic with parameter ranges reflecting uncertainty in current estimates of transmissibility and severity. Overlaid public health measures included case isolation and quarantine of contacts, and broadly applied social distancing. Clinical presentations and patient flows through the Australian health care system were simulated, including expansion of available intensive care capacity and alternative clinical assessment pathways. FindingsAn unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the Australian health system, over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone will be insufficient to constrain case presentations within a feasible level of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions will need to be applied at some level over the course of the epidemic to ensure that systems do not become overwhelmed, and that essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed to ensure access to critical care. InterpretationReducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality will rely on a combination of measures to strengthen and extend public health and clinical capacity, along with reduction of overall infection transmission in the community. Ongoing attention to maintaining and strengthening the capacity of health care systems and workers to manage cases is needed. FundingAustralian Government Department of Health Office of Health Protection, Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council
