An Entomological Investigation during a Recent Rift Valley Fever Epizootic/Epidemic Reveals New Aspects of the Vectorial Transmission of the Virus in Madagascar.

A Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak occurred in at least five regions of Madagascar in 2021. The aim of this study was to provide an overview of the richness, abundance, ecology, and trophic preferences of mosquitoes in the Mananjary district and to investigate the distribution of mosquitoes that were RT-PCR-positive for RVFV. Three localities were prospected from 26 April to 4 May 2021, using light traps, BG-Sentinel traps baited with an artificial human odor, Muirhead-Thomson pit traps, and indoor pyrethroid spray catches. A total of 2806 mosquitoes belonging to at least 26 species were collected. Of 512 monospecific pools of mosquitoes tested with real-time RT-PCR, RVFV was detected in 37 pools representing 10 mosquito species. The RVFV-positive species were as follows: Aedes albopictus, Ae. argenteopunctatus, Anopheles coustani, An. gambiae s.l., An. mascarensis, An. squamosus/cydippis, Culex antennatus, Cx. decens, Cx. Tritaeniorhynchus, and Uranotaenia spp. Of the 450 tested engorged females, 78.7% had taken a blood meal on humans, 92.9% on cattle, and 71.6% had taken mixed (human-cattle) blood meals. This investigation suggests the potential role of mosquitoes in RVFV transmission within this epizootic/epidemic context and that the human populations at the three study sites were highly exposed to mosquitoes. Therefore, the use of impregnated mosquito nets as an appropriate prevention method is recommended.

The Re-Emergence of Rift Valley Fever in Mananjary District, Madagascar in 2021: A Call for Action.

An epizootic of rift valley fever (RVF) was suspected on 21 February 2021 in various districts of Madagascar, with a lab confirmation on 1 April 2021. A cross-sectional survey aiming to detect cases of RVF in humans and to study the circulation of rift valley fever virus (RVFV) in animals was conducted from 22 April to 4 May 2021 in the district of Mananjary. Blood samples from cattle and humans were tested using serological and molecular techniques. In cattle, the circulation of RVFV was confirmed between 5 February and 4 May 2021. The positivity rates of anti-RVFV IgG and IgM were 60% and 40%, respectively. In humans, the circulation of RVFV was observed from 1 April to 5 May 2021. The positivity rate of RVFV was estimated to be 11.7% by combining the results of the molecular and serological approaches. Of the 103 individuals who agreed to participate in the survey, 3 were determined to be positive by RT-PCR, and 10 had anti-RVFV IgM. Among them, one was positive for both. Given that previous studies have reported the circulation of RVFV during inter-epidemic periods and the occurrence of outbreaks due to imported RVFV in Madagascar, our findings suggest the importance of strengthening RVF surveillance from a "One Health" perspective by conducting syndromic and risk-based surveillance at the national and regional levels.

Challenges of rabies surveillance in Madagascar based on a mixed method survey amongst veterinary health officers.

Introduction: In Madagascar, rabies is endemic and a notifiable disease. The objective of this mixed study was to understand the challenges faced by the Veterinary Health Officers (VHOs) in the current rabies surveillance system in Madagascar. Methods: A survey was conducted from mid-April to the end of July 2021 during which all officially-listed VHOs (N = 150) were contacted by phone at least twice. Participants, representative of the 22 regions of Madagascar, were interviewed by phone based on a semi-structured questionnaire on (1) their knowledge of rabies epidemiology in their area of activities, (2) the occurrence of human and animal rabies and the species affected in the region where they work, (3) the factors that might influence rabies surveillance depending on (a) their activities and area of operation, (b) the socio-cultural aspects of local communities, and (c) the general organization of animal rabies surveillance. Results: The majority (80/90) of VHOs declared having been informed of at least one suspected or confirmed case of human and/or animal rabies in their area of activity during their work as VHOs: at least once a month for 11 of them, at least once a year for 40 and with undetermined frequency for 29. Several obstacles hinder the surveillance of rabies resulting in under-reporting. The lack of funds to access suspect animals, collect, pack and ship samples in compliance with biosecurity measures and the cold chain, was mentioned as a major obstacle to surveillance. The second barrier is socio-cultural: in many large coastal regions, dogs are taboo and VHOs fear rejection by the community if they treat dogs. Discussion and conclusion: While the general population requires information on the rabies situation in Madagascar and on how to proceed in the event of a bite, veterinarians and decision-makers need to be fully aware of an evidence-based approach to rabies surveillance, prevention and control. Communication between the human and animal health sectors should be improved. Politicians need to be persuaded of the importance of funding to eliminate rabies in Madagascar. The adoption, in early 2023, of a national strategic plan for rabies control is a first step in this direction.

Mixed methods to evaluate knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) towards rabies in central and remote communities of Moramanga district, Madagascar.

Control of dog-mediated rabies relies on raising awareness, access to post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and mass dog vaccination. To assess rabies awareness in Moramanga district, Madagascar, where rabies is endemic, two complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches were carried out in 2018. In the quantitative approach, a standardized questionnaire was administered to 334 randomized participants living in 170 households located less than 5 km from the anti-rabies treatment center (ARTC) located in Moramanga city (thereafter called the central area), and in 164 households located more than 15 km away from the ARTC in two rural communes (thereafter called the remote area). Logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors influencing knowledge and practice scores. The qualitative approach consisted in semi-structured interviews conducted with 28 bite victims who had consulted the ARTC, three owners of biting dogs, three ARTC staff and two local authorities. Overall, 15.6% (52/334) of households owned at least one dog. The dog-to-human ratio was 1:17.6. The central area had a significantly higher dog bite incidence (0.53 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 0.31-0.85) compared to the remote area (0.22 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 0.09-0.43) (p = 0.03). The care pathway following a bite depended on wound severity, how the dog was perceived and its owner's willingness to cover costs. Rabies vaccination coverage in dogs in the remote area was extremely low (2.4%). Respondents knew that vaccination prevented animal rabies but owners considered that their own dogs were harmless and cited access and cost of vaccine as main barriers. Most respondents were not aware of the existence of the ARTC (85.3%), did not know the importance of timely access to PEP (92.2%) or that biting dogs should be isolated (89.5%) and monitored. Good knowledge scores were significantly associated with having a higher socio-economic status (OR = 2.08, CI = 1.33-3.26) and living in central area (OR = 1.91, CI = 1.22-3.00). Good practice scores were significantly associated with living in central area (OR = 4.78, CI = 2.98-7.77) and being aware of the ARTC's existence (OR = 2.29, CI = 1.14-4.80). In Madagascar, knowledge on rabies was disparate with important gaps on PEP and animal management. Awareness campaigns should inform communities (i) on the importance of seeking PEP as soon as possible after an exposure, whatever the severity of the wound and the type of biting dog who caused it, and (ii) on the existence and location of ARTCs where free-of-charge PEP is available. They should also encourage owners to isolate and monitor the health of biting dogs. Above all, awareness and dog vaccination campaigns should be designed so as to reach the more vulnerable remote rural populations as knowledge, good practices and vaccination coverage were lower in these areas. They should also target households with a lower socio-economic status. If awareness campaigns are likely to succeed in improving access to ARTCs in Madagascar, their impact on prompting dog owners to vaccinate their own dogs seems more uncertain given the financial and access barriers. Therefore, to reach the 70% dog vaccination coverage goal targeted in rabies elimination programs, awareness campaigns must be combined with free-of-charge mass dog vaccination.

Rabies surveillance in Madagascar from 2011 to 2021: can we reach the target?

Rabies is endemic in Madagascar and a neglected disease. The aim of this study was to summarize human and animal rabies surveillance activities in Madagascar from 2011 to 2021. Samples from terrestrial mammals and humans were tested for rabies virus infection using direct fluorescent antibody, RT-PCR and virus isolation by the National Reference Laboratory (NRL) for rabies at the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar. Among 964 animal and 47 human samples tested, 66.7 and 70.2% were positive, respectively. The NRL received these suspect rabies samples from 48 of 114 districts of Madagascar. Most of them were submitted from the district of the capital city Antananarivo (26.3%) and mainly from its region Analamanga (68.9%). Animal samples were mainly from dogs (83%), cats (9.5%) and cattle (5.8%). Pigs, lemurs, goats accounted for less than 1%. During the 11 years of surveillance, 48 human skin and/or brain biopsy samples were received from 20 districts, mainly from Antananarivo and its surroundings (N = 13), Toamasina and its surroundings (N = 8) and Moramanga (N = 6). The high positivity rate for all species and the non-homogeneous spatial distribution of samples suggests substantial underreporting of rabies cases. There is a clear need to better understand the reasons for underreporting and prioritize rabies surveillance, prevention and control in Madagascar, with improvements in budget, education and infrastructure. A joint animal and human health rabies control program including vaccination of at least 70% of the dog population, is needed to achieve the goal of eliminating dog-transmitted human rabies by 2030 from Madagascar.

Comprehensive Characterization of Viral Diversity of Female Mosquitoes in Madagascar.

The diversity and circulation of arboviruses are not much studied in Madagascar. The fact is that arboviral emergences are rarely detected. The existing surveillance system primarily relies on serological detection and records only a few human infections annually. The city of Mahajanga, however, experienced a confirmed dengue fever epidemic in 2020 and 2021. This study aimed to characterize and analyze the virome of mosquitoes collected in Mahajanga, near patients with dengue-like syndromes to detect known and unknown viruses as well as investigate the factors contributing to the relative low circulation of arboviruses in the area. A total of 4280 mosquitoes representing at least 12 species from the Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex genera were collected during the dry and the rainy seasons from three sites, following an urbanization gradient. The virome analysis of 2192 female mosquitoes identified a diverse range of viral families and genera and revealed different patterns that are signatures of the influence of the mosquito genus or the season of collection on the composition and abundance of the virome. Despite the absence of known human or veterinary arboviruses, the identification and characterization of viral families, genera, and species in the mosquito virome contribute to our understanding of viral ecology and diversity within mosquito populations in Madagascar. This study serves as a foundation for ongoing surveillance efforts and provides a basis for the development of preventive strategies against various mosquito-borne viral diseases, including known arboviruses.

Factors Associated with Carriage of Enteropathogenic and Non-Enteropathogenic Viruses: A Reanalysis of Matched Case-Control Data from the AFRIBIOTA Site in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (EED) is an associate driver of stunting in poor settings, and intestinal infections indirectly contribute to the pathophysiology underlying EED. Our work aimed at assessing whether enteric viral carriage is determinant to stunting. A total of 464 healthy and asymptomatic children, aged 2 to 5 years, were recruited, and classified as non-stunted, moderately stunted, or severely stunted. Among the recruited children, 329 stool samples were obtained and screened for enteric and non-enteric viruses by real-time polymerase chain reaction. We statistically tested for the associations between enteric viral and potential risk factors. Approximately 51.7% of the stool samples were positive for at least one virus and 40.7% were positive for non-enteric adenoviruses. No statistical difference was observed between virus prevalence and the growth status of the children. We did not find any statistically significant association between viral infection and most of the socio-demographic risk factors studied, except for having an inadequate food quality score or an over-nourished mother. In addition, being positive for Ascaris lumbricoides was identified as a protective factor against viral infection. In conclusion, we did not find evidence of a direct link between stunting and enteropathogenic viral carriage in our population.

Seroprevalence of IgG Antibodies Directed against Dengue, Chikungunya and West Nile Viruses and Associated Risk Factors in Madagascar, 2011 to 2013.

Arboviruses have been shown to circulate in Madagascar, including West Nile, dengue, and chikungunya viruses, though the extent of their circulation remains poorly documented. We estimated the seroprevalence of these three arboviruses in Madagascar and determined risk factors associated with seropositivity. Serum samples obtained from 1680 individuals surrounding the Sentinel Health Centers network in all regions of the country were analyzed using ELISA and hemagglutination inhibition assays for dengue, chikungunya, and West Nile viruses IgG antibodies, and multivariate logistic regression models were run. Overall, 6.5% [IC 95% 3.2-9.9] were seropositive for dengue virus, predominantly of Dengue serotype 1, 13.7% [IC 95% 6.5-20.9] for chikungunya virus, and 12.7% [IC 95% 9.0-16.5] for West Nile virus. There was no association with age, showing that dengue and chikungunya viruses were likely recently introduced. Eastern and Northern parts were more affected by dengue and chikungunya viruses, while West Nile virus seemed to circulate in all parts of the country. Dengue and chikungunya seropositivity were notably associated with high levels of vegetation, as well as frequent work in the forest, and West Nile seropositivity with the presence of cultivated areas, as well as standard of living. This analysis gives a new insight into arboviruses circulation and transmission patterns in Madagascar.

Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic during the 2020 and 2021 waves in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19-associated mortality remains difficult to estimate in sub-Saharan Africa because of the lack of comprehensive systems of death registration. Based on death registers referring to the capital city of Madagascar, we sought to estimate the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and calculate the loss of life expectancy. METHODS: Death records between 2016 and 2021 were used to estimate weekly excess mortality during the pandemic period. To infer its synchrony with circulation of SARS-CoV-2, a cross-wavelet analysis was performed. Life expectancy loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic was calculated by projecting mortality rates using the Lee and Carter model and extrapolating the prepandemic trends (1990-2019). Differences in life expectancy at birth were disaggregated by cause of death. RESULTS: Peaks of excess mortality in 2020-21 were associated with waves of COVID-19. Estimates of all-cause excess mortality were 38.5 and 64.9 per 100 000 inhabitants in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with excess mortality reaching ≥50% over 6 weeks. In 2021, we quantified a drop of 0.8 and 1.0 years in the life expectancy for men and women, respectively attributable to increased risks of death beyond the age of 60 years. CONCLUSION: We observed high excess mortality during the pandemic period, in particular around the peaks of SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Antananarivo. Our study highlights the need to implement death registration systems in low-income countries to document true toll of a pandemic.

A multi-country phase 2 study to evaluate the suitcase lab for rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 in seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Lessons from the field.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic led to severe health systems collapse, as well as logistics and supply delivery shortages across sectors. Delivery of PCR related healthcare supplies continue to be hindered. There is the need for a rapid and accessible SARS-CoV-2 molecular detection method in low resource settings. OBJECTIVES: To validate a novel isothermal amplification method for rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 across seven sub-Sharan African countries. STUDY DESIGN: In this multi-country phase 2 diagnostic study, 3,231 clinical samples in seven African sites were tested with two reverse transcription Recombinase-Aided Amplification (RT-RAA) assays (based on SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid (N) gene and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) gene). The test was performed in a mobile suitcase laboratory within 15 min. All results were compared to a real-time RT-PCR assay. Extraction kits based on silica gel or magnetic beads were applied. RESULTS: Four sites demonstrated good to excellent agreement, while three sites showed fair to moderate results. The RdRP gene assay exhibited an overall PPV of 0.92 and a NPV of 0.88. The N gene assay exhibited an overall PPV of 0.93 and a NPV 0.88. The sensitivity of both RT-RAA assays varied depending on the sample Ct values. When comparing sensitivity between sites, values differed considerably. For high viral load samples, the RT-RAA assay sensitivity ranges were between 60.5 and 100% (RdRP assay) and 25 and 98.6 (N assay). CONCLUSION: Overall, the RdRP based RT-RAA test showed the best assay accuracy. This study highlights the challenges of implementing rapid molecular assays in field conditions. Factors that are important for successful deployment across countries include the implementation of standardized operation procedures, in-person continuous training for staff, and enhanced quality control measures.

RETRACTED: Gradual emergence followed by exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Africa.

The geographic and evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (BA.1), which was first detected mid-November 2021 in Southern Africa, remain unknown. We tested 13,097 COVID-19 patients sampled between mid-2021 to early 2022 from 22 African countries for BA.1 by real-time RT-PCR. By November-December 2021, BA.1 had replaced the Delta variant in all African sub-regions following a South-North gradient, with a peak Rt of 4.1. Polymerase chain reaction and near-full genome sequencing data revealed genetically diverse Omicron ancestors already existed across Africa by August 2021. Mutations, altering viral tropism, replication and immune escape, gradually accumulated in the spike gene. Omicron ancestors were therefore present in several African countries months before Omicron dominated transmission. These data also indicate that travel bans are ineffective in the face of undetected and widespread infection.

Enterovirus detection in different regions of Madagascar reveals a higher abundance of enteroviruses of species C in areas where several outbreaks of vaccine-derived polioviruses occurred.

BACKGROUND: Poliomyelitis outbreaks due to pathogenic vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) are threatening and complicating the global polio eradication initiative. Most of these VDPVs are genetic recombinants with non-polio enteroviruses (NPEVs) of species C. Little is known about factors favoring this genetic macroevolution process. Since 2001, Madagascar has experienced several outbreaks of poliomyelitis due to VDPVs, and most of VDPVs were isolated in the south of the island. The current study explored some of the viral factors that can promote and explain the emergence of recombinant VDPVs in Madagascar. METHODS: Between May to August 2011, we collected stools from healthy children living in two southern and two northern regions of Madagascar. Virus isolation was done in RD, HEp-2c, and L20B cell lines, and enteroviruses were detected using a wide-spectrum 5'-untranslated region RT-PCR assay. NPEVs were then sequenced for the VP1 gene used for viral genotyping. RESULTS: Overall, we collected 1309 stools, of which 351 NPEVs (26.8%) were identified. Sequencing revealed 33 types of viruses belonging to three different species: Enterovirus A (8.5%), Enterovirus B (EV-B, 40.2%), and Enterovirus C (EV-C, 51.3%). EV-C species included coxsackievirus A13, A17, and A20 previously described as putative recombination partners for poliovirus vaccine strains. Interestingly, the isolation rate was higher among stools originating from the South (30.3% vs. 23.6%, p-value = 0.009). EV-C were predominant in southern sites (65.7%) while EV-B predominated in northern sites (54.9%). The factors that explain the relative abundance of EV-C in the South are still unknown. CONCLUSIONS: Whatever its causes, the relative abundance of EV-C in the South of Madagascar may have promoted the infections of children by EV-C, including the PV vaccine strains, and have favored the recombination events between PVs and NPEVs in co-infected children, thus leading to the recurrent emergence of recombinant VDPVs in this region of Madagascar.

SARS-CoV-2 infection rate in Antananarivo frontline health care workers, Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Health care workers (HCWs) represent a vulnerable population during epidemic periods. Our cohort study aimed to estimate the risk of infection and associated factors among HCWs during the first wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Madagascar. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was carried out in three hospitals that oversaw the first cases of COVID-19. Monthly ELISA-based serological tests were conducted, and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected in the case of symptoms linked to COVID-19 for RT-PCR analysis. Survival analyses were used to determine factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: The study lasted 7 months from May 2020. We included 122 HCWs, 61.5% of whom were women. The median age was 31.9 years (IQR: 26.4-42.3). In total, 42 (34.4%) had SARS-CoV-2 infections, of which 20 were asymptomatic (47.6%). The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 9.3% (95% CI [6.5-13.2]) person-months. Sixty-five HCWs presented symptoms, of which 19 were positive by RT-PCR. When adjusted for exposure to deceased cases, infection was more frequent in HCWs younger than 30 years of age (RR = 4.9, 95% CI [1.4-17.2]). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate a high incidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2 among HCWs, with a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Young HCWs are more likely to be at risk than others. Greater awareness among young people is necessary to reduce the threat of infection among HCWs.

Epidemiology and Molecular Analyses of Influenza B Viruses in Senegal from 2010 to 2019.

Influenza virus types A and B are responsible for acute viral infections that affect annually 1 billion people, with 290,000 to 650,000 deaths worldwide. In this study, we investigated the circulation of influenza B viruses over a 10-year period (2010-2019). Specimens from patients suspected of influenza infection were collected. Influenza detection was performed following RNA extraction and real-time RT-PCR. Genes coding for hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) of influenza B viruses were partially sequenced, and phylogenetic analyses were carried out subsequently. During the study period, we received and tested a total of 15,156 specimens. Influenza B virus was detected in 1322 (8.7%) specimens. The mean age of influenza B positive patients was 10.9 years. When compared to reference viruses, HA genes from Senegalese circulating viruses showed deletions in the HA1 region. Phylogenetic analysis highlighted the co-circulation of B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineage viruses with reassortant viruses. We also noted a clear seasonal pattern of circulation of influenza B viruses in Senegal.

Surveillance of Viral Encephalitis in the Context of COVID-19: A One-Year Observational Study among Hospitalized Patients in Dakar, Senegal.

The burden of encephalitis and its associated viral etiology is poorly described in Africa. Moreover, neurological manifestations of COVID-19 are increasingly reported in many countries, but less so in Africa. Our prospective study aimed to characterize the main viral etiologies of patients hospitalized for encephalitis in two hospitals in Dakar. From January to December 2021, all adult patients that met the inclusion criteria for clinical infectious encephalitis were enrolled. Cerebrospinal fluids, blood, and nasopharyngeal swabs were taken and tested for 27 viruses. During the study period, 122 patients were enrolled. Viral etiology was confirmed or probable in 27 patients (22.1%), with SARS-CoV-2 (n = 8), HSV-1 (n = 7), HHV-7 (n = 5), and EBV (n = 4) being the most detected viruses. Age groups 40-49 was more likely to be positive for at least one virus with an odds ratio of 7.7. The mortality was high among infected patients, with 11 (41%) deaths notified during hospitalization. Interestingly, SARS-CoV-2 was the most prevalent virus in hospitalized patients presenting with encephalitis. Our results reveal the crucial need to establish a country-wide surveillance of encephalitis in Senegal to estimate the burden of this disease in our population and implement strategies to improve care and reduce mortality.

Household transmission of COVID-19 among the earliest cases in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Households are among the highest risk for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In sub-Saharan Africa, very few studies have described household transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work aimed to describe the epidemiologic parameters and analyze the secondary attack rate (SAR) in Antananarivo, Madagascar, following the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the country in March 2020. METHODS: A prospective case-ascertained study of all identified close contacts of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections was conducted in Antananarivo from March to June 2020. Cases and household contacts were followed for 21 days. We estimated epidemic parameters of disease transmission by fitting parametric distributions based on infector-infected paired data. We assessed factors influencing transmission risk by analyzing the SAR. FINDINGS: Overall, we included 96 index cases and 179 household contacts. Adjusted with the best-fit normal distribution, the incubation period was 4.1 days (95% CI 0.7-7.5]). The serial interval was 6.0 days (95% CI [2.4-9.6]) after adjusting with the best-fit Weibull distribution. On average, each index case infected 1.6 family members (95%CI [0.9-2.3]). The mean SAR among close contacts was 38.8% (95% CI [19.5-58.2]) with the best-fit gamma distribution. Contacts older than 35 years old were more likely to be infected, and the highest SAR was found among them. CONCLUSION: The results of our study provide key insights into the epidemiology of the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Madagascar. High rates of household transmission were found in Antananarivo, emphasizing the need for preventive measures to reduce community transmission.

Cross-sectional cycle threshold values reflect epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Madagascar.

As the national reference laboratory for febrile illness in Madagascar, we processed samples from the first epidemic wave of COVID-19, between March and September 2020. We fit generalized additive models to cycle threshold (Ct) value data from our RT-qPCR platform, demonstrating a peak in high viral load, low-Ct value infections temporally coincident with peak epidemic growth rates estimated in real time from publicly-reported incidence data and retrospectively from our own laboratory testing data across three administrative regions. We additionally demonstrate a statistically significant effect of duration of time since infection onset on Ct value, suggesting that Ct value can be used as a biomarker of the stage at which an individual is sampled in the course of an infection trajectory. As an extension, the population-level Ct distribution at a given timepoint can be used to estimate population-level epidemiological dynamics. We illustrate this concept by adopting a recently-developed, nested modeling approach, embedding a within-host viral kinetics model within a population-level Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework, to mechanistically estimate epidemic growth rates from cross-sectional Ct distributions across three regions in Madagascar. We find that Ct-derived epidemic growth estimates slightly precede those derived from incidence data across the first epidemic wave, suggesting delays in surveillance and case reporting. Our findings indicate that public reporting of Ct values could offer an important resource for epidemiological inference in low surveillance settings, enabling forecasts of impending incidence peaks in regions with limited case reporting.

Epidemiological Patterns of Seasonal Respiratory Viruses during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Madagascar, March 2020-May 2022.

Three epidemic waves of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) occurred in Madagascar from March 2020 to May 2022, with a positivity rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) of 21% to 33%. Our study aimed to identify the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemiology of seasonal respiratory viruses (RVs) in Madagascar. We used two different specimen sources (SpS). First, 2987 nasopharyngeal (NP) specimens were randomly selected from symptomatic patients between March 2020 and May 2022 who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 and were tested for 14 RVs by multiplex real-time PCR. Second, 6297 NP specimens were collected between March 2020 and May 2022 from patients visiting our sentinel sites of the influenza sentinel network. The samples were tested for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2. From SpS-1, 19% (569/2987) of samples tested positive for at least one RV. Rhinovirus (6.3%, 187/2987) was the most frequently detected virus during the first two waves, whereas influenza predominated during the third. From SpS-2, influenza, SARS-CoV-2, and RSV accounted for 5.4%, 24.5%, and 39.4% of the detected viruses, respectively. During the study period, we observed three different RV circulation profiles. Certain viruses circulated sporadically, with increased activity in between waves of SARS-CoV-2. Other viruses continued to circulate regardless of the COVID-19 situation. Certain viruses were severely disrupted by the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings underline the importance and necessity of maintaining an integrated disease surveillance system for the surveillance and monitoring of RVs of public health interest.

Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens.

When a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a vast cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions on this question, but there are a number of open challenges, particularly given unknown aspects of the pathogen biology, the effectiveness and feasibility of interventions, and the intersecting political, economic, sociological and behavioural complexities for a novel pathogen. In this overview, we detail how models might identify directions for better leveraging or expanding the scope of data available on the pathogen trajectory, for bounding the theoretical context of emergence relative to prospects for elimination, and for framing the larger economic, behavioural and social context that will influence policy decisions and the pathogen's outcome.