Agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza circulation: a multisite study in Thailand, Vietnam and Madagascar.

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza have occurred and have been studied in a variety of ecological systems. However, differences in the spatial resolution, geographical extent, units of analysis and risk factors examined in these studies prevent their quantitative comparison. This study aimed to develop a high-resolution, comparative study of a common set of agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in domestic poultry in four different environments: (1) lower-Northern Thailand, where H5N1 circulated in 2004-2005, (2) the Red River Delta in Vietnam, where H5N1 is circulating widely, (3) the Vietnam highlands, where sporadic H5N1 outbreaks have occurred, and (4) the Lake Alaotra region in Madagascar, which features remarkable similarities with Asian agro-ecosystems and where low pathogenic avian influenza viruses have been found. We analyzed H5N1 outbreak data in Thailand in parallel with serological data collected on the H5 subtype in Vietnam and on low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar. Several agro-environmental covariates were examined: poultry densities, landscape dominated by rice cultivation, proximity to a water body or major road, and human population density. Relationships between covariates and AIV circulation were explored using spatial generalized linear models. We found that AIV prevalence was negatively associated with distance to the closest water body in the Red River Delta, Vietnam highlands and Madagascar. We also found a positive association between AIV and duck density in the Vietnam highlands and Thailand, and with rice landscapes in Thailand and Madagascar. Our findings confirm the important role of wetlands-rice-ducks ecosystems in the epidemiology of AI in diverse settings. Variables influencing circulation of the H5 subtype in Southeast Asia played a similar role for low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar, indicating that this area may be at risk if a highly virulent strain is introduced.

An unexpected recurrent transmission of Rift Valley fever virus in cattle in a temperate and mountainous area of Madagascar.

Rift Valley fever is an acute, zoonotic viral disease of domestic ruminants, caused by a phlebovirus (Bunyaviridae family). A large outbreak occurred in Madagascar in 2008-2009. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the point prevalence of antibodies against Rift Valley Fever Virus (RVFV) in cattle in the Anjozorobe district, located in the wet and temperate highland region of Madagascar and yet heavily affected by the disease, and analyse environmental and trade factors potentially linked to RVFV transmission. A serological study was performed in 2009 in 894 bovines. For each bovine, the following variables were recorded: age, location of the night pen, minimum distance from the pen to the nearest water point and the forest, nearest water point type, and herd replacement practices. The serological data were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model. The overall anti-RVFV IgG seroprevalence rate was 28% [CI95% 25-31]. Age was statistically linked to prevalence (p = 10(-4)), being consistent with a recurrent RVFV circulation. Distance from the night pen to the nearest water point was a protective factor (p = 5.10(-3)), which would be compatible with a substantial part of the virus transmission being carried out by nocturnal mosquito vectors. However, water point type did not influence the risk of infection: several mosquito species are probably involved. Cattle belonging to owners who purchase animals to renew the herd were significantly more likely to have seroconverted than others (p = 0.04): cattle trade may contribute to the introduction of the virus in this area. The minimum distance of the night pen to the forest was not linked to the prevalence. This is the first evidence of a recurrent transmission of RVFV in such an ecosystem that associates a wet, temperate climate, high altitude, paddy fields, and vicinity to a dense rain forest. Persistence mechanisms need to be further investigated.