RESUMO
COVID-19 patients diagnosed [≥]3 days after symptom onset had increased odds of hospitalization. The 75th percentile for diagnosis delay was 5 days for residents of low-privilege areas and Black and Hispanic people diagnosed before SARS-CoV-2 Delta predominance, compared with 4 days for other patients, indicating inequities in prompt diagnosis.
RESUMO
To characterize the epidemiological properties of the B.1.526 SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest, here we utilized nine epidemiological and population datasets and model-inference methods to reconstruct SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in New York City, where B.1.526 emerged. We estimated that B.1.526 had a moderate increase (15-25%) in transmissibility and could escape immunity in 0-10% of previously infected individuals. In addition, B.1.526 substantially increased the infection-fatality risk (IFR) among adults 65 or older by >60% during Nov 2020 - Apr 2021, compared to baseline risk estimated for preexisting variants. Overall, findings suggest that new variants like B.1.526 likely spread in the population weeks prior to detection and that partial immune escape (e.g., resistance to therapeutic antibodies) could offset prior medical advances and increase IFR. Early preparedness for and close monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants, their epidemiological characteristics, and disease severity are thus crucial to COVID-19 response as it remains a global public health threat.
RESUMO
During March 1-May 16, 2020, 191,392 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were diagnosed and reported and 20,141 confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths occurred among New York City (NYC) residents. We applied a network model-inference system developed to support the Citys pandemic response to estimate underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection rates. Based on these estimates, we further estimated the infection fatality risk (IFR) for 5 age groups (i.e. <25, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and 75+ years) and all ages overall, during March 1-May 16, 2020. We estimated an overall IFR of 1.45% (95% Credible Interval: 1.09-1.87%) in NYC. In particular, weekly IFR was estimated as high as 6.1% for 65-74 year-olds and 17.0% for 75+ year-olds. These results are based on more complete ascertainment of COVID-19-related deaths in NYC and thus likely more accurately reflect the true, higher burden of death due to COVID-19 than previously reported elsewhere. It is thus crucial that officials account for and closely monitor the infection rate and population health outcomes and enact prompt public health responses accordingly as the pandemic unfolds.