Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies, risk factors for infection and associated symptoms in Geneva, Switzerland: a population-based study

BackgroundPopulation-based serological surveys provide a means for assessing the immunologic landscape of a community, without the biases related to health-seeking behaviors and testing practices typically associated with rt-PCR testing. This study assesses SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence over the first epidemic wave in Canton Geneva, Switzerland, as well as biological and socio-economic risk factors for infection and symptoms associated with IgG seropositivity. Methods and findingsBetween April 6 and June 30, 2020, former participants of a yearly representative cross-sectional survey of the 20-75-year-old population of the canton of Geneva were invited to participate in a seroprevalence study, along with household members five years and older. We collected blood and tested it for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulins G (IgG). Questionnaires were self-administered. We estimated seroprevalence with a Bayesian model accounting for test performance and sampling design. We included 8344 participants (53.5% women, mean age 46.9 years). The population-level seroprevalence over the 12-week study period was 7.8 % (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 6.8-8.9), accounting for sex, age and household random effects. Seroprevalence was highest among 18-49 year olds (9.5%, 95%CrI 8.1-10.9), with young children (5-9 years) and those >65 years having significantly lower seroprevalence (4.3% and 4.7-5.4% respectively). Men were more likely to be seropositive than women (relative risk 1.2, 95%CrI 1.1-1.4). Odds of seropositivity were reduced for female retirees (0.46, 95%CI 0.23-0.93) and unemployed men (0.35, 95%CI 0.13-1.0) compared to employed individuals, and for current smokers (0.36, 95%CI 0.23-0.55) compared to never-smokers. We found no significant association between occupation, level of education, neighborhood income and the risk of being seropositive. Symptoms most strongly associated with seropositivity were anosmia/dysgeusia, loss of appetite, fever, fatigue and myalgia and/or arthralgia. Thirteen percent of seropositive participants reported no symptoms. ConclusionsOur results confirm a low population seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after the first wave in Geneva, a region hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Socioeconomic factors were not associated with seropositivity in this sample. The elderly and young children were less frequently seropositive, though it is not clear how biology and behaviors shape these differences. These specificities should be considered when assessing the need for targeted public health measures.

Household Transmission of SARS-COV-2: Insights from a Population-based Serological Survey

BackgroundKnowing the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections and risk of infection from household- and community-exposures is critical to SARS-CoV-2 control. Limited previous evidence is based primarily on virologic testing, which disproportionately misses mild and asymptomatic infections. Serologic measures are more likely to capture all previously infected individuals. ObjectiveEstimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection from household and community exposures, and identify key risk factors for transmission and infection. DesignCross-sectional household serosurvey and transmission model. SettingGeneva, Switzerland Participants4,524 household members [≥]5 years from 2,267 households enrolled April-June 2020. MeasurementsPast SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed through IgG ELISA. Chain-binomial models based on the number of infections within households used to estimate the cumulative extra-household infection risk and infection risk from exposure to an infected household member by demographics and infectors symptoms. ResultsThe chance of being infected by a SARS-CoV-2 infected household member was 17.3% (95%CrI,13.7-21.7%) compared to a cumulative extra-household infection risk of 5.1% (95%CrI,4.5-5.8%). Infection risk from an infected household member increased with age, with 5-9 year olds having 0.4 times (95%CrI, 0.07-1.4) the odds of infection, and [≥]65 years olds having 2.7 (95%CrI,0.88-7.4) times the odds of infection of 20-49 year olds. Working-age adults had the highest extra-household infection risk. Seropositive asymptomatic household members had 69.6% lower odds (95%CrI,33.7-88.1%) of infecting another household member compared to those reporting symptoms, accounting for 14.7% (95%CrI,6.3-23.2%) of all household infections. LimitationsSelf-reported symptoms, small number of seropositive kids and imperfect serologic tests. ConclusionThe risk of infection from exposure to a single infected household member was more than three-times that of extra-household exposures over the first pandemic wave. Young children had a lower risk of infection from household members. Asymptomatic infections are far less likely to transmit than symptomatic ones but do cause infections. Funding SourceSwiss Federal Office of Public Health, Swiss School of Public Health (Corona Immunitas research program), Fondation de Bienfaisance du Groupe Pictet, Fondation Ancrage, Fondation Privee des Hopitaux Universitaires de Geneve, and Center for Emerging Viral Diseases.

Future scenarios for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: an age-structured model

The recent lifting of COVID-19 related restrictions in Switzerland causes uncertainty about the future of the epidemic. We developed a compartmental model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and projected the course of the epidemic until the end of year 2020 under various scenarios. The model was age-structured with three categories, children (0-17), adults (18-64) and seniors (65- years). Lifting all restrictions according to the plans disclosed by the Swiss federal authorities by mid-May resulted in a rapid rebound in the epidemic, with the peak expected in July. Measures equivalent to at least 90% reduction in all contacts were able to eradicate the epidemic; 56% reduction in contacts could keep the intensive care unit occupancy under the critical level, and delay the next wave until October. Scenarios where strong contact reductions were only applied in selected age groups could not suppress the epidemic, increasing the risk of a next wave in July, and another stronger wave in September. Future interventions need to cover all age groups to keep the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic under control.

Repeated seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in a population-based sample from Geneva, Switzerland

BackgroundAssessing the burden of COVID-19 based on medically-attended case counts is suboptimal given its reliance on testing strategy, changing case definitions and the wide spectrum of disease presentation. Population-based serosurveys provide one avenue for estimating infection rates and monitoring the progression of the epidemic, overcoming many of these limitations. MethodsTaking advantage of a pool of adult participants from population-representative surveys conducted in Geneva, Switzerland, we implemented a study consisting of 8 weekly serosurveys among these participants and their household members older than 5 years. We tested each participant for anti-SARS-CoV-2-IgG antibodies using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Euroimmun AG, Lubeck, Germany). We estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian regression model taking into account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of Genevas population. ResultsIn the first three weeks, we enrolled 1335 participants coming from 633 households, with 16% <20 years of age and 53.6% female, a distribution similar to that of Geneva. In the first week, we estimated a seroprevalence of 3.1% (95% CI 0.2-5.99, n=343). This increased to 6.1% (95% CI 2.69.33, n=416) in the second, and to 9.7% (95% CI 6.1-13.11, n=576) in the third week. We found that 5-19 year-olds (6.0%, 95% CI 2.3-10.2%) had similar seroprevalence to 20-49 year olds (8.5%, 95%CI 4.99-11.7), while significantly lower seroprevalence was observed among those 50 and older (3.7%, 95% CI 0.99-6.0, p=0.0008). InterpretationAssuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is at least in the short-term associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from burning out simply due to herd immunity. Further, no differences in seroprevalence between children and middle age adults are observed. These results must be considered as Switzerland and the world look towards easing restrictions aimed at curbing transmission.